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William Popp Associates Transportation Engineers/Planners (425) 401-1030 e-mail: [EMAIL REDACTED] 14-400 Building l Suite 206 l 14400 Bel-Red Road l Bellevue, WA 98007 MEMORANDUM TO: Eugene Zakhareyev FROM: Bill Popp, P.E. DATE: March 23, 2017 SUBJECT: Parking and Traffic Analysis Critique of proposed AEB Mosque on NE 51st St in the City of Redmond. This memorandum report is in response to your request for an independent traffic engineering assessment of the proposed Anjuman E Burhani Seattle Masjid project (AEB) traffic and parking impacts on your neighborhood. The analysis and comments below are based primarily upon review of the following documents: 1. Anjuman E Burhani Community Complex Traffic and Parking Letter – 2016 – R1, December 20, 2016 by JTE, Jake Traffic Engineering, Inc. 2. AEB Transportation Management Plan, February 2, 2014 3. Trip Generation Manual , ITE , 9th Edition 4. Parking Generation, ITE , 4th Edition 5. NE 51st St Improvements Updated Operations Assessment, TENW, February 17, 2017. 6. Citizen Questions/Comments and City of Redmond Answers re AEB Application, February 7, 2017 Following are my comments for Project Information, Trip Generation, Traffic Analysis, and Parking. All references in the text to JTE are referring to the “Traffic and Parking Letter”, number 1. above, while references to TMP refer to “AEB Transportation Management Plan”, number 2. Project Information and Comparisons to Other Dawoodi Borah Mosques Per the AEB Complex 2011/RAI Utilization Patterns from the Community as cited in the JTE report1, the congregation consisted of “60 households and 150 people”. The floor plan provides prayer rugs for 81 male and 66 female worshippers for a total of 147 worshippers. On this subject the baseline data for the existing Mosque is now some 6 years old and warrants formal confirmation that it is still relevant. It is important to note we find no information in the record regarding the existing AEB Prayer Center building size and floor plan layout that would enable one to make independent estimates of traffic and parking demand rates for application to the new building. Current applicant appears to be using part of a light industrial building see red screen rectangle on building in Attachment 1. Additionally, the building is located in TL9 zone in the City of Kirkland where religious 1 Anjuman E Burhani Community Complex Traffic and Parking Letter – 2016 – R1, December 20, 2016 by JTE, Jake Traffic Engineering, Inc; p.4 ---PAGE BREAK--- 2 assembly is not an allowed use, and the City of Kirkland has no record of “change of use” permit filed for the address. This is an extremely austere setting for religious/family activities. In addition to the proposed mosque’s two prayer areas, there are 12 classrooms, a library, principal’s office, a large multi-purpose room, kitchen, a large storage area, a parsonage and guest parsonage all adding to a grand total of 22,726 sf. At this size it is probably the third largest mosque in the nation for the Dawoodi Bohra sect of Islam based on available public records (see Attachment The largest based on available square footage is in the Chicago area at 30,000 square feet, and notably it has membership of 200 families (2000). “Households” as the term is used for AEB are assumed equivalent to the category “families” in the national data. Combining the available statistics where family and building size data is complete (four Dawoodi Bohra mosques) we find a weighted average planning value of 7.15 families/000 sf. Applying that measure to the proposal suggests a comparable capacity of 162 families (7.15 X 22.7). This is 2.7 times the current number of families for AEB Masjid. Trip Generation Using ITE data for Mosque2 would yield 198 generator weekday peak hour trips for this site while the Friday generator peak hour would be 324 trips . JTE rejected use of this source as it was only a single data point that was “not relevant for the subject project. The Anjuman facility is to serve a small congregation of members only” 3 JTE elected to rely on the ITE category “Church” for the weekday street peak hour datum even though the Letter acknowledges that “The Anjuman E Burhani Community Complex is not a typical church land use. The ITE Trip Generation does not contain a land use that would directly fit the Anjuman-E-Burhani Community Complex use. The Anjuman-E-Burhani Community Complex holds numerous prayer type services throughout the day depending on the time of day. However for analysis purpose, the church land use would best fit the proposed community.” 4 The foregoing rationale for selection of the acknowledged non-representative ITE rate is puzzling as there is a full year of 2012-2013 parking count data (Attachment 3) for the existing facility that should be assignable to time of day, day of week, and type of event for locally derived trip generation rate information for this specific user. The ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition, Volume 1: User’s Guide and Handbook says “If the analyst has reason to believe that the independent variable (and how it was measured for sites reported in Trip Generation) does not match the characteristics of a site under analysis, a local trip generation study should be conducted (see Chapter 4) or appropriate refinements made to achieve consistency. “ Clearly, a local trip generation analysis is required per ITE recommendations. This data should be extractable from the existing Kirkland Prayer Center parking data along with perhaps a period of traffic count supplementation to estimate the traffic arrival/departure times for the 2012- 2013 data set in the event that information doesn’t already exist and simply has not been reported. This is a very complex traffic generator and needs relevant specific data for an accurate assessment of impacts. 2 Trip Generation Manual, ITE, 9th Edition, Land Use Code 562 3 JTE, p.7 4 IBID ---PAGE BREAK--- 3 In light of the light industrial/business park nature of the existing location versus the religiously aesthetic and very large new facility with its proximity to Microsoft (60% of AEB members are employees5), the locally derived data will undoubtedly understate attendance at the new location, but will be extremely useful nonetheless as a base for trip generation rates by building area and number of members/families, types and number of events, and for time of day relationships. Using the ITE land use Church category, the weekday peak hour is quite low (10 trips) while the “Event Peak Hour (weekend/holiday)” is substantial at 213 trips in plus out (see Table 1 from the JTE Letter – Attachment This Event Peak Hour is unanalyzed for street system impacts in the JTE Letter despite the magnitude of the number. By way of comparison, the City of Redmond required Saint George Church to conduct a Sunday traffic impact analysis in addition to the standard weekday pm peak hour analysis6. The Activities for AEB Seattle – Three Year Projections of daily, weekly and special events (Attachment5) suggests many of these events will occur during or on the shoulders of the weekday commute traffic period. That narrative defined event pattern needs verification with local empirical data to quantify time of day and day of week of event arrivals and departures to be used confidently for traffic impact analysis. It should be noted the projected activities matrix (Attachment 5) overlooked the 10-day period of gatherings in November (start of Muslim New Year). These were well attended with vehicle accumulation ranging from 32 to 50. And half of those events occurred on weekdays. Since these events show a start time of 7PM the weekday arrivals would fall on the shoulder of the commuter peak and should thus be analyzed for traffic operations impacts. The JTE Letter estimates 12 vehicle trips for the weekday street peak hour which is a doubling from that used in their 2011 study7. But based on review of the parking usage graph from the existing site in Kirkland (Attachment this number 12 (6 in, 6 out) would still be far too low for a weekday street peak hour traffic analysis datum based simply on the large number of days (58) with parking lot counts ranging from 20 to 50* vehicles. And this chart excludes Daily Prayers8 At the low end this translates to 40* vehicle trips (20 in, 20 out); at the high end it represents 100 trips. And this is without adjusting trip rates upward for the potential growth in members and attendance for the new facility. It is clear from national data that the 22,700 sf Mosque could accommodate 2.7 times the number of households/families as the existing AEB facility. That can translate to 2.7 times the existing traffic and parking demand. A simple estimate of potential future AEB Masjid traffic demand using the 2.7 multiplier with 2012-2013 AEB parking data as the base would pencil as follows: Weekday PM Peak Hour 40* X 2.7 = 108 vehicle trips; if the arrivals and departures are separated by an hour or longer then it would be 54 trips inbound or outbound depending on street peak timing Generator Peak Hour 50* X 2.7 = 135 vehicle trips with all of those either inbound or outbound since these would be Special Events of longer duration than one hour. 5 JTE, p.4 6 St. George Coptic Orthodox Church Traffic Impact Analysis, Sunday Analysis Addendum, TraffEx, October 22, 2010 7 JTE,p.2 8 TMP,p.2 ---PAGE BREAK--- 4 This estimate is considered significantly understated as the existing facility most likely suppresses festive event activity as well as other community special events. While the proposed parking lot capacity will constrain demand the potential is there for substantial growth in attendance with its location adjacent to Microsoft and other Eastside tech industries and the announced growth expectations for all of these employers. Traffic Volumes/Impacts Per the project site plan the proposed lot will accommodate 65 vehicles under their tandem/valet parking scenario. This capacity would not cover the TMP estimated maximum congregation events which would have up to 30 vehicles (75 people) diverted to an offsite lot9. Thus 74 vehicles (assuming 9 passenger van, 9 round trips) entering and 9 vehicles exiting would approximate the generator peak hour volume at the site driveway. It does not however address the true potential vehicular demand some of which would likely disperse to the nearby neighborhood. Also this calculation generously assumes no vehicles arrive and leave because the lot was full; in other words there is a need for real time management of the lot and advance communication with arriving motorists. With the exception of daily prayers all other events for AEB last longer than one hour (Attachment 5) so the peak hour traffic selected for analysis would be either inbound or outbound depending on the peaking characteristic of the street traffic. A neglected, but very important traffic operational impact point is, all of the Special Events and perhaps future evening prayer events will have significant traffic surge impacts on NE 51st traffic with conditions exacerbated when the arrivals or discharges occur during or on the shoulders of the street peak. This statement assumes the arrival or discharge is likely to occur within a 15 or 20 minute period which means that if it’s 15-minute volumes for instance, those would be multiplied by 4 for inclusion in the full hour LOS, queuing and simulation calculations. Assuming the 65 vehicle lot capacity as a weekday peak hour demand event, the equivalent hourly vehicle impact would be 260 equivalent hourly vehicles (4 X 65) or 32% more than that of Microsoft’s equivalent exiting hourly traffic at 154th Ave NE10. This is not a minor traffic generator! The very real possibility exists that the surge left-turning project traffic on NE 51st St may extend through the SR 520 ramp terminal intersection with implementation of the proposed center turn lane. To verify this possibility, two peak period volume scenarios should be analyzed (street peak hour and generator peak hour) in a corridor micro-simulation analysis for NE 51st St with identification of LOS and queuing; and then alternatively with U-turns at 154th Ave NE should the queuing be an issue. Parking RZC 9 TMP, p.2 10 NE 51st St Improvements Updated Operations Assessment, TENW, February 17, 2017; Report, Intersection 2 ---PAGE BREAK--- 5 The JTE Letter parking analysis and recommendations are based on the section of the Redmond Zoning Code (RZC) that calls for one stall per 5 seats for Church use. JTE applies that value to seats in the prayer area (147/5 = 30) and in the multipurpose area (210/5 = 42) for a total of 72 spaces. However, re the multipurpose area, the RZC 21.08.280.C.2 which speaks to assembly areas in Churches says 2. The use shall comply with the parking regulations for assembly uses, except that in no event shall parking be in excess of one space per three seats in a residential zone. Under this provision the multipurpose area would require 70 spaces (210/3 = 70). And thus the total code required parking would be 100 spaces. Whether the number is 72 or 100 there are only 36 spaces provided 36 short of the JTE estimated requirement and 64 short of what is believed to be the correct interpretation of code. But the applicant expands supply to 65 using tandem and aisle parking for 29 vehicles. There does not appear to be anything specific in the code that would allow tandem parking or parking in the aisles for non-residential uses. The JTE Letter addresses this under supply problem for large events with reference to the TMP that will employ “a system of family carpooling and the use of shuttle buses to and from public park and ride facilities”11. This is in conflict with the 2014 TMP and its VFW lot rental agreement12 so it is assumed here that the notion of offsite lot rental is inoperative. If so, some major events and special congregations happen to occur during or on the shoulders of weekday peak commute periods (30 days of Ramadan in the longer range future, 10 day Muslim New Year, Special Congregations, Community Meetings) when park and ride lots may be in peak use. The Metro park and ride lot system was not intended to be a reservoir for under supply of parking by local land uses and should this proposed use be known Metro will undoubtedly protest. If the offsite lot rental concept is still a possibility and JTE was misinformed, that expired contract with the VFW for overflow parking is extremely informal. A properly executed contract covering dates ranges going forward would be required; additionally, a plan B for cases where VFW changes ownership etc. as there is no parking in the immediate vicinity. Per discussion above tandem/valet parking is proposed to kick in when all 36 designated stalls are filled. At the Kirkland Prayer Center in the 2012-2013 data year there were 16 days with 37 to 50 parked vehicles. With the new very large facility there will undoubtedly be many more of these days when tandem/valet parking is needed as many as 43 days based simply on the previously cited 2.7 size related growth factor for this Mosque. This essentially amounts to a continuing parking and car-pooling management challenge with multiple opportunities for slip- ups. The net effect of which would likely be neighborhood parking spillover impacts. National data for Dawoodi Bohra Mosques Based on the weighted average parking provided for five Dawoodi Bohra mosques in the US, the parking required would be almost twice that of the RZC. Combining the available national data from Attachment 1 where parking and building area information is complete (five of the national mosques), the weighted average parking supply is 6.12 stalls/000 sf which would translate to a parking supply of 139 stalls needed for the proposal. ITE Parking Demand 11 JTE, p.13 12 TMP, Attachment ---PAGE BREAK--- 6 Application of the ITE Parking Generation Manual rate for the category Mosque13 would require 390 parking spaces, or almost 4 times that of the RZC. This is based on studies from three mosques. Consideration of use of this rate is not addressed in the JTE Letter and should have been at least discussed as mosques are clearly very unique generators of parking and traffic demand. Also of note, the disparity between ITE data for Mosque and that for Church is approximately two-fold, i.e. Mosque” has twice the parking per 000 sf of building as does Church. Conclusions and Recommendations Project Scope The proposed Redmond AEB Seattle Masjid would be one of the largest mosques in the nation for the Dawoodi Bohra sect of Islam. Based on the facility’s size it could have almost triple its year 2011 membership relative to families per unit of floor area of the other US mosques. With the large, attractive new facility and its proximity to Microsoft (60% of AEB members are Microsoft employees) and other Eastside tech industries, a two to three-fold growth in membership could be a reality. A good case can be made that this facility will accommodate well in excess of 250 attendees on numerous occasions. The AEB Seattle Masjid membership data is some 6 years old and warrants formal confirmation that the data is still relevant. Trip Generation and Traffic Operations The new Mosque is likely to generate substantially more street peak hour as well as project peak hour traffic on weekdays and weekends than the current project traffic study has predicted. The JTE Letter acknowledges that the ITE Trip Generation Manual “does not contain a land use that would directly fit the Anjuman-E-Burhani Community Complex” including the one for “Mosque” and that the proposal “is not a typical church land use either”, yet the ITE rate for “Church” is utilized in the analysis. This is despite the fact that local parking usage data was available and potentially usable for extrapolation to peak hour analysis for the complex events utilization pattern of this Mosque. The ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition, Volume 1: User’s Guide and Handbook recommends that a local trip generation study be conducted for these situations. This is clearly needed to establish the most reasonable street peak and generator peak hour volumes for this very unique land use. LOS and queuing analyses along NE 51st St for street and generator peak hours should follow. It is clear from national data that this size Dawoodi Borah Mosque could have almost triple the number of households as existing and thus almost triple the traffic demand of the existing facility. The resulting volumes would certainly meet left turn warrants for the City’s requested left turn in to the site. But the concentrated spike of peak volumes may exceed the available storage suggesting thus no left turns in but rather a U-turn solution at 154th Ave NE. To prove or 13 Parking Generation, ITE , 4th Edition, Land Use Code 562 ---PAGE BREAK--- 7 disprove this possibility, the resulting peak hour traffic volumes with appropriate peak hour factor adjustments should be applied in a micro simulation modeling exercise for NE 51st St from SR 520 to 156th Ave NE using the NE 51st horizon year of 2020 since that data is available and the date matches the project’s concept of 3-yr growth projection. Parking The RZC requires 100 spaces for peak parking demand yet the project only supplies 36 spaces – a net deficiency of 64 standard spaces. The parking plan allows for 29 additional vehicles to be parked under tandem/valet management for a total of 65 spaces. A relatively complicated management plan with promises of car pooling and offsite parking is offered to assure overflow parking in the neighborhood is avoided. What is clear from the activity history of AEB Seattle Masjid and the narrative in the TMP, the Muslim religion requires an exceptional amount of involvement of its congregation. The disparity between ITE data for Mosque and that for Church is approximately two-fold, i.e. Mosque” has twice the parking demand per 000 sf of building as does Church. The project is clearly under-parked relative to its size and projected use. Recommendation would be to scale back the project to provide an appropriate balance of code compliant parking at least, and at best, parking supply based on a nationwide analysis of mosques for this particular sect of Islam. This would not be a difficult study. With the new very large facility with its potential growth but limited parking, there will undoubtedly be many days when overflow parking management is required. This amounts to a continuing parking management challenge with multiple opportunities for slip-ups. The net effect of which would likely be neighborhood parking spillover impacts. Given the 22,700 sf facility for AEB Seattle Masjid with its implied potential for growth, 140 spaces would be this transportation engineer’s recommendation for the parking demand value to be used for site planning. And finally, it is important to note that independent review of the earlier version of JTC traffic analysis by TENW (commissioned by Microsoft in 2014) had also identified deficiencies in trip generation and the need to use local studies of similar facilities per ITE guidelines and for parking to address the actual parking demand rather than only the code-required parking14. 14 Letter to Jim Stanton, Microsoft Community Affairs Mgr, April 1, 2014;Traffic/Parking Comments on Development Application for Anjuman-E-Burhani Mosquque – Redmond, WA; TENW, Jeff Haynie, P.E. ---PAGE BREAK--- ATTACHMENT 1 ---PAGE BREAK--- Location SF Parking Families Year data available Members Year data available 1 Bay Area, CA 1121 Old Canyon Rd, Fremont, CA 94536 8540 28 70 2005 2 Bay Area, CA 998 San Antonio Rd, Palo Alto, CA 94303 12000 24+ 100 2015 200 2010 3 Los Angeles, CA 5701 Platt Ave, Woodland Hills, CA 91367 18000 130+ 120 2012 400 2012 4 Chicago, IL 10S252 Kingery Hwy, Willowbrook, IL 60527 30000 [PHONE REDACTED] 1500 2010 5 NJ 341 Dunhams Corner Rd, East Brunswick, NJ 20000 [PHONE REDACTED] 6 Washington DC 18728 New Hampshire Ave Ashton, MD 20861 45 700 2004 7 Boston area, MA 246 Rangeway Rd, North Billerica, MA 01862 95 100 2005 300 2005 8 Houston, TX 17730 Coventry Park Dr, Houston, TX 77084 [PHONE REDACTED] ATTACHMENT 2 ---PAGE BREAK--- ATTACHMENT 3 AEB Seattle Masjid: Kirkland Prayer Center NUMB.ER OF CARS AT EACH EVENT 11/13/12 11/16/12 11/19/12 11/22/12 11/28/12 1/9/13 1/25/13 - . I 2/8/13 2/15/13 3/2/13 - 4/28/13 5/9/13 - 5/28/13 6/22/13 • - 7/8/13 - 1• 7/11/13 7/14/13 7/17/13 --ll - 7/20/13 :j 7/23/13 - - ' - - 7/26/13 - ~ 7/29/13 7/31/13 - 8/3/13 8/6/13 - 9/4/131 1 ~ 10/1/13 . 10/22/13 36 onsite stalls: self-park 65 onsite stalls: w/valet The chart above shows actual numbers of cars at each of the events during the last year (November 2012 - October 2013) ---PAGE BREAK--- ATTACHMENT 4 JTE, Inc. VEHICULAR TRIP GENERATION TABLE 1 ANJUMAN-E-BURHANI COMMUNITY COMPLEX - REDMOND TRAFFIC AND PARKING LETIER - UPDATE 2 TIME PERIOD TRIP RATE TRIPS ENTERING TRIPS EXITING TOTAL A. Church (ITE Land Use Code 560 ; 18,115 sf} - Net New (space for Parsonage 2, Apartment and Storage not included). Average Weekday T = 9.11X 83 (50%) 82 (50%) 165 AM Peak Hour T = 0.56X 6 (62%) 4 (38%) 10 PM Peak Hour T = 0.55X 5 (48 5 (52%) 10 Event Peak Hour3 T = 11.76X 106 (50%) 107 (50%) 213 (weekend/holiday) 8. Apartment (ITE Land Use Code 220; 1 - unit) Average Weekday T= 6.65 X 3 (50%) 4 (50%) 7 AM Peak Hour T = 0.51X 0 (20%) 1 (80%) 1 PM Peak Hour T = 0.62X 1 (65%) 0 (35 1 Saturday Peak Hour T = 0.52 N/A N/A - 1 C. Storage (ITE LUC 150, 2,520 sf) Average Weekday T = 3.56X 4 (50%) 5 (50%) 9 AM Peak Hour T = 0.30X 1 (79%) 0 (21%) 1 PM Peak Hour T = 0.32X 0 (25%) 1 (75%) 1 Saturday Peak Hour T = 0.13X 0 (64%) 0 (36 0 Total A+ 8 + C Average Weekday - 90 91 181 AM Peak Hour - 7 5 12 PM Peak Hour - 6 6 12 Weekend Peak Hour - 107 107 214 T = trips X = 1,000 sq. ft. or# of units A vehicle trip is defined as a sing le or one direction vehicle movem ent with either the origin or destination (exiting or enter ing) inside th e study site. The above tr ip generation values acco unt for all the site trips made by all vehicles for all purpo ses, includin g commuter, visitor , recreation , and service and delivery vehicle trips. 2 not included to acco unt for existing SFDU on the site 3 the ITE Trip Generation LUC 560 Sunday peak hour data used \Vt•_in(\c\'•Pro.ieet f iles\2011 031 · -t 1.1rh..,. ;ommuMy comcie,; • ro l~d• chte ffl 1ed~ 16-UIHWteWl,ulr_.,,_( 8'if"t'l<¢0r•Vl'l\ll'lllt)'Corr,Pl~d1Alc:ttcr-Updatc-2016 doe COLOR COPY ONLY ---PAGE BREAK--- ATTACHMENT 5 Activities Projection Matrix Note: The one 10 day period per year cited in text below is missing from the Special Events section. In 2012 that event took place in mid-‐November with 5 of the 10 events occurring on weekdays (7PM-‐10PM). This event exhibited peak parking usage equivalent to Ramadan.