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Understanding the community perspective on the effects of climate change on Moscow Nick Sanyal & Spencer Plumb Dept. of Conservation Social Sciences College of Natural Resources ---PAGE BREAK--- The Team Ashley Butters Cait Reeves Chris Ohms James Bouffard Julie Miles Fellows Makenzie Groves Tess Pinkney Tim Barth Whitney Davis A community Service-Learning project of CSS 310: Social research methods in conservation 2 ---PAGE BREAK--- Objectives Collect scientifically defensible data on: • Community attitudes • Beliefs • Behaviors • Concerns, and • Preferences for local land use planning responses to climate change 3 ---PAGE BREAK--- Survey Methods • Used the Dillman Method to design and administer 250 questionnaires to Moscow residents. • Face-to-face administration. • Random sample based on voter precincts (excluding UI campus housing). • One randomly selected respondent from each randomly selected household. • Sample accurate to ± 6.2%, 95% CL. 4 ---PAGE BREAK--- 5 ---PAGE BREAK--- 6 ---PAGE BREAK--- National findings from Yale 7 ---PAGE BREAK--- Segmentation Typology 15-item Yale University instrument has variables drawn from four categories: • Climate change beliefs, • Issue involvement, • Climate-relevant behaviors, and • Preferred societal responses Latent Class Analysis was used to identify the 6 groups. 8 ---PAGE BREAK--- Moscow vs. the U.S. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive Moscow US 9 ---PAGE BREAK--- Moscow vs. the U.S. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive Moscow US Moscow 82% Moscow 18% 10 ---PAGE BREAK--- COMPARISON OF SEGMENTS: DEMOGRAPHICS How did Moscow do? 11 ---PAGE BREAK--- Residency in Moscow 12 ---PAGE BREAK--- Age 13 ---PAGE BREAK--- Household size 14 ---PAGE BREAK--- Home ownership 15 ---PAGE BREAK--- Mean income category 16 ---PAGE BREAK--- COMPARISON OF SEGMENTS: PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE How did Moscow do? 17 ---PAGE BREAK--- When will climate change impact? 18 ---PAGE BREAK--- Awareness of conservation in Moscow (1=Very Unaware; 2=Unaware; 3=Aware; 4=Very Aware) 19 ---PAGE BREAK--- Climate change as a threat to preferred way of life 20 ---PAGE BREAK--- Concern about how climate change could affect Moscow (1=Very Unconcerned; 2=Unconcerned; 3=Concerned; 4=Very Concerned) 21 ---PAGE BREAK--- How disruptive will climate change be? (1=Not Disruptive; 2=Somewhat Disruptive; 3=Moderately Disruptive; 4=Quite Disruptive; 5=Extremely Disruptive) 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Decreased Water Supply Increased Drought Poor Air Quality More Severe Wildland Fire Increased Food Cost Damaged Infrastructure Increased Amount of Power Outages Tropical Disease Population Migration to Moscow Higher Clost of Health Care Increased Amount of Floods Higher Energy Cost Record Temperatures More Severe Storms 22 ---PAGE BREAK--- How disruptive will climate change be? (1=Not Disruptive; 2=Somewhat Disruptive; 3=Moderately Disruptive; 4=Quite Disruptive; 5=Extremely Disruptive) 23 ---PAGE BREAK--- COMPARISON OF SEGMENTS: PREFERRED RESPONSES BY THE CITY How did Moscow do? 24 ---PAGE BREAK--- The City of Moscow should . . 25 ---PAGE BREAK--- Support for City study 26 ---PAGE BREAK--- Importance for city to plan ahead 27 ---PAGE BREAK--- How should Moscow respond? Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissiv e Apply new technology to help city cope 31 19 19 8 Encourage Lifestyle changes 69 73 56 50 12 9 Not a problem; No need to respond 2 2 21 81 Not the cities responsibility to respond 2 7 12 25 Not sure 3 16 37 33 9 28 ---PAGE BREAK--- Support for mixed-used as a way to cut the need to drive 29 ---PAGE BREAK--- Importance to live in easy walking distance of key services and amenities 30 ---PAGE BREAK--- Live in a mixed-use neighborhood? 31 ---PAGE BREAK--- Who is responsible to lead local response Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive Federal and state agencies 11% 7 9 25 13 10 Local Govt. 53 56 43 50 25 30 Local Business 8 6 28 13 Local citizens 25 30 21 25 46 40 Local Nonprofits 20 UN 3 4 32 ---PAGE BREAK--- COMPARISON OF SEGMENTS: TRADEOFFS How did Moscow do? 33 ---PAGE BREAK--- Tradeoffs in lifestyle and governance 34 ---PAGE BREAK--- A: 10% increase $ vs. B: power shortage 35 ---PAGE BREAK--- A: increased respiratory disease vs. B: 10% increase $ 36 ---PAGE BREAK--- A: increased flooding vs. B: 10% increase in taxes 37 ---PAGE BREAK--- A: water restrictions vs. B: 20% increase $ 38 ---PAGE BREAK--- A: 10% increase in food $ vs. B: more local/less variety foods 39 ---PAGE BREAK--- COMPARISON OF SEGMENTS: PREFERRED PLANNING SOLUTIONS How did Moscow do? 40 ---PAGE BREAK--- Decreasing greenhouse gasses 41 ---PAGE BREAK--- Decreasing greenhouse gasses 42 ---PAGE BREAK--- Decreasing greenhouse gasses (Number of options supported) 43 ---PAGE BREAK--- Conservation behaviors 44 ---PAGE BREAK--- Conservation behaviors 45 ---PAGE BREAK--- Conservation Upgrades 46 ---PAGE BREAK--- Conservation Upgrades 47 ---PAGE BREAK--- Addressing local issues 1=Not important; 2=Somewhat Important; 3=Moderately Important; 4=Quite Important; 5=Extremely Important) 1 2 3 4 5 Increase Housing Density Mixed Use Zoning Renewable Energy All Bldg Smart Growth More Urban Farms Renewable Energy Plant Shade Trees Plant More Trees Ped/Bike Friendly Buy Local Find New Water Sources Protection of Open Space Preserve Farmland Managing aquifers Importance 48 ---PAGE BREAK--- Means: Importance of local issues (1=Not important; 2=Somewhat Important; 3=Moderately Important; 4=Quite Important; 5=Extremely Important) 49 ---PAGE BREAK--- COMPARISON OF SEGMENTS: THE 6 MUSCOVITES How did Moscow do? 50 ---PAGE BREAK--- 1. The Alarmed 16% • Climate change is happening now and humans are the main cause. Very knowledgeable and concerned, and threatened by climate change disruption. • About average income, residency, home ownership and age. • Strong support for city action. Very strong support for mixed-use. • 30% support new technology; 69% support lifestyle changes. • 53% prefer a local government response, 25% would involve the public. • Most willing to pay extra to avoid negative consequences of climate change. 51 ---PAGE BREAK--- 2. The Concerned 41% • Climate change will happen in the next 10 years, and humans are the main cause. Knowledgeable about, about concerned and threatened by climate change disruption. • Longer-term residents of Moscow. • Strong support for City action. Very strong support for mixed-use. • 73% support lifestyle changes. • 56% prefer a local government response, 30% would involve the public. • Most willing to pay extra to avoid negative consequences of climate change. 52 ---PAGE BREAK--- 3. The Cautious 25% • Climate change will happen over the next 40 years; half believe humans are the main cause, half believe it is due to natural causes. Somewhat knowledgeable and may be swayed by new data • Partially threatened by climate change disruption. • Mid-term residents of Moscow, below mean income. • Moderate support for city action. Strong support for mixed-use. • 56% support lifestyle changes. • 43% prefer a local government response, 21% would involve the public, and 28% would like to see local businesses involved. • Moderately willing to pay extra to avoid negative consequences of climate change. 53 ---PAGE BREAK--- 4. The Disengaged 3% • Somewhat knowledgeable about and moderately threatened by climate change disruption, but show low concern. Believe climate change will happen over the next 40 years. • Act much like the concerned group! • Shortest-term residents of Moscow, youngest, lowest mean income, largest household size, and lowest home ownership. • Moderate support for city action. Strong support for mixed- use. • 50% support lifestyle changes, 37% unsure. • 50% prefer a local government response, 25% would involve the public, and 25% would involve federal and state agencies. • Generally willing to pay extra to avoid negative consequences of climate change. 54 ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. The Doubtful 10% • Most believe climate change is due to natural changes, are not very worried about it. Believe climate change may happen over the next 100 years. • Not knowledgeable about and somewhat threatened by climate change disruption, but unconcerned about it. • Longest-term residents of Moscow, above average income, and highest home ownership. • Low support for city action. Low support for mixed-use. • 21% see no need of a City response; 25% don’t believe that it is the City’s responsibility to respond, and 33% are unsure. • 25% prefer a local government response, 46% would involve the public. • Very willing suffer the negative consequences of climate change. 55 ---PAGE BREAK--- 6. The Dismissive 5% • Don’t believe that climate change is happening. Not knowledgeable about and somewhat threatened by climate change disruption, but not at all concerned about it. • Long-term residents of Moscow, highest income group, and high home ownership. • No support for city action. Moderate support for mixed- use. • 81% see no need of a City response. • 30% prefer a local government response, 40% would involve the public, and 20% would involve local non-profits. • Extremely willing suffer the negative consequences of climate change. 56 ---PAGE BREAK--- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION: THE IMPERATIVE FOR ACTION How did Moscow do? 57 ---PAGE BREAK--- Implications for action • 82-85% are concerned enough to support the involvement of local government and citizens in planning for mitigating the impacts of local climate change. • Some of the support for actions is not motivated by a desire to mitigate impacts of climate change. • Virtually all respondents want local initiatives and solutions—the collaborative efforts of local government and local citizens. 58 ---PAGE BREAK--- To reduce the production of greenhouse gasses the city could: 1. Increase the number of bike and walking paths 2. Increase availability of public transit 3. Promote non-polluting sources of energy for existing homes and businesses 4. Supplemental renewable energy sources for domestic heating and cooking. 59 Supported by over 50% of the respondents ---PAGE BREAK--- Important issues to address over the next 10-20 years: 1. Creating residential zoning that encourages Mixed Use Development a mix of housing, shopping and commercial/office space in a single neighborhood. 2. Making Moscow more pedestrian and bike friendly. 3. Using smart growth to control urban sprawl and limit the size of Moscow. 4. Protection of open space and urban trees in Moscow. 5. Planting many more trees to shade buildings and sidewalks and to absorb CO2. 6. Increasing the number of small urban farms in Moscow. 7. Install supplemental renewable energy sources (solar panels on public buildings. 60 ---PAGE BREAK--- 61 Thank you! Any Questions?