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April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-1 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx Chapter 2 PLANNING AREA CHARACTERISTICS This chapter has three purposes: to describe the Master Plan's planning area, to define land use classifications within the service area, and to summarize historical population trends and projections. 2.1 STUDY AREA The study area for this Master Plan (Figure 2.1) includes current City limits, a portion of north Ceres, the unincorporated community of Empire, and isolated unincorporated County land (“islands”) dispersed within City limits. Through sewer service agreements, wastewater generated by north Ceres and the served unincorporated areas is treated at the City’s Sutter Avenue Primary Treatment Plant (Sutter Plant), which is located along the southern edge of the City. The study area is in accordance with the City’s updated Urban Area General Plan Sphere of Influence (SOI), which is shown in Figure 2.1. Its boundary generally follows the City’s SOI boundary and a portion of north Ceres. 2.2 CLIMATE The City of Modesto is located within the north-central portion of Stanislaus County. It has an inland Mediterranean-type climate, meaning its winters are cool and moist, and its summers are dry and hot. Average high temperatures are in the low 90s in the summer and in the mid-50s in the winter. However, highs in the 40s can occur on days with persistent fog and low-lying cloudiness. The average winter daily low is in the high 30s. The City’s rainfall averages approximately 12.2 inches per year, with about 88 percent of it occurring between the months of November and April. Usually, January is its wettest month. Table 2.1 summarizes the maximum and minimum temperatures as well as the average precipitation. 2.3 TOPOGRAPHY The City is located along Highway 99 in the northern part of the San Joaquin Valley. As with most cities in the Valley, the City’s topography is relatively flat, with general sloping from the northeast to the southwest toward the Tuolumne River. The highest portions of the study area are in the northeast corner of the City's SOI at an elevation of approximately 140 feet above mean seal level (MSL). The lowest portions of the study area are located near the Tuolumne River at an elevation less than 60 feet above MSL. However, the majority of the study area is generally between 70 and 110 feet above MSL. ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-2 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx Table 2.1 Study Area Climate Wastewater Collection System Master Plan City of Modesto, California Month Average Maximum Temperature (ºF) Average Minimum Temperature (ºF) Average Rainfall (inches) January 53.8 37.6 2.44 February 60.9 40.8 2.07 March 66.9 43.5 1.93 April 73.3 46.8 1.03 May 81.2 51.8 0.46 June 88.2 56.6 0.13 July 94.3 60.0 0.02 August 92.3 58.8 0.04 September 87.7 56.0 0.17 October 77.9 49.6 0.63 November 64.6 41.7 1.24 December 54.4 37.7 2.05 Annual 74.6 48.4 12.2 Notes: Source: Western Regional Climate Center, Modesto Station (045738), www.wrcc.dri.edu. Period of record ranges from 03/01/1906 to 01/02/2015. 2.4 LAND USE The City’s Urban Area General Plan was last adopted in 2008 and is currently being updated by the City. In March 2014, the City proposed a new General Plan Land Use Diagram that provides the most current land use information for the study area. Additionally, the City is considering an alternative land use diagram, which was developed in July 2014. Although the City is considering the alternative diagram, this section describes only the proposed land uses associated with the March 2014 Land Use Diagram. For more information on the alternative land use diagram, refer to Appendix A. Land use and population information are integral for determining the amount of wastewater generated in an area. For example, the type of land use will dictate the volume and character of the wastewater generated, which is necessary for sizing and maintaining collection system facilities. For this Master Plan, the existing land use was used to develop the initial estimate of wastewater flows for current conditions (as described in Chapter ---PAGE BREAK--- KIERNAN AVE COVERT RD BACON RD BECKWITH RD NORTH AVE WOODLAND AVE MAZE BLVD CALIFORNIA AVE PARADISE RD WHITMORE AVE SHOEMAKE AVE BLUE GUM AVE KANSAS AVE STODDARD RD AMERICAN AVE TULLY RD MC HENRY AVE COFFEE RD OAKDALE RD ROSELLE AVE CLAUS RD LANGWORTH RD CARVER RD DALE RD PRESCOTT RD FINNEY RD ALBERS RD HWY 99 HWY 99 HWY 99 BRIGGSMORE AVE 9TH ST SYLVAN AVE PELANDALE AVE BANGS AVE ?Î STUDY AREA FIGURE 2.1 CITY OF MODESTO WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM MASTER PLAN Legend City Limits Study Area Boundary Sphere of Influence North Ceres Roads Modesto Municipal District #1 MMSD No. 1 Sewer Service Area Sewer Service by Agreement O 0 1 2 Miles Beard Industrial Park Empire North Ceres ---PAGE BREAK--- ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-4 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx The proposed March 2014 land use diagram shows the limits of the SOI and the General Plan Boundary (GPB). The Salida Community Plan, which is shown outside the study area, was not included in the evaluation. The only land use assumptions applied in this study are those consistent with the proposed Urban Area General Plan. For more information on the different land uses found in the Urban Area General Plan, consult Figure 2.2. Since the land use assumptions forecast the type of growth within the City’s SOI developable areas, the wastewater projections and facilities required to serve future growth will be consistent with the City’s guiding document on development. The City’s sewer service area is referred to as Modesto Municipal Sewer District No. 1 (MMSD No. Through sewer service agreements, the City also provides wastewater treatment service to north Ceres and several unincorporated areas within the SOI. Table 2.2 provides the developed acreage totals for the current MMSD No. 1 service area, including areas serviced by agreement Empire, north Ceres, and unincorporated County islands). Currently, MMSD No. 1 provides sewer service to approximately 22,500 developed acres, which include 878 acres for north Ceres, 357 acres for Empire, 1,300 acres for unincorporated County islands, and 1,300 acres for the Beard Industrial District. The current City limits encompass approximately 23,800 acres, including developed and vacant/underdeveloped land. However, the total land area for MMSD No. 1 discussed above includes only developed areas. Included in this chapter are several figures and tables that depict the study area. Figure 2.1 shows the MMSD No. 1 sewer service area and illustrates the areas outside City limits that are served under an agreement. Figure 2.1 highlights the total area (developed and undeveloped) within sewer service area managed by MMSD No. 1. Table 2.2 summarizes the total developable acreage by land use for the City’s SOI, which at build-out will encompass approximately 36,000 acres for sewer service connections. For reference, build-out is the full development of all land use classifications within the current SOI and study area boundary. The majority of the proposed land use at build-out is designated residential and village residential, and accounts for approximately 20,800 acres (58 percent of the total acreage). Commercial, industrial, regional commercial, business-commercial-residential, and business parks make up approximately 10,200 acres (28 percent). Mixed use and downtown account for 2,900 acres (8 percent). The remainder is open space, which totals approximately 2,100 acres (6 percent). As with most cities in California, the detached single-family home is the predominant residential unit in the City. ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-5 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx Table 2.2 Current and Projected MMSD No. 1 Sewer Service Area Wastewater Collection System Master Plan City of Modesto, California Land Use Category Land Use Code Sewer Service Area Developed (gr. acres) Developable(1) (gr. acres) Future Developed Area (gr. acres) Residential R 15,481 2,823 18,304 Village Residential VR 21 2,512 2,533 Mixed Use MU 1,503 117 1,620 Downtown D 630 673(2) 1,303 Commercial C 1,474 343 1,817 Regional Commercial RC 172 623 795 Business-Commercial-Residential BCR 34 1,087 1,121 Business Park BP 186 2,900 3,086 Industrial I 1,920 1,412 3,332 Open Space OS 263 1,818 2,081 North Ceres - 878 434 1,312 Total 22,563 14,742 37,305 Notes: Developable includes underdeveloped, vacant, and future service areas. Developable acres for downtown account for the redevelopment of existing developed land, and include several land uses, including residential, commercial, industrial, mixed use and open space. ---PAGE BREAK--- KIERNAN AVE COVERT RD BACON RD BECKWITH RD NORTH AVE WOODLAND AVE MAZE BLVD CALIFORNIA AVE PARADISE RD WHITMORE AVE SHOEMAKE AVE BLUE GUM AVE KANSAS AVE STODDARD RD AMERICAN AVE TULLY RD MC HENRY AVE COFFEE RD OAKDALE RD ROSELLE AVE CLAUS RD LANGWORTH RD CARVER RD DALE RD PRESCOTT RD FINNEY RD ALBERS RD HWY 99 HWY 99 HWY 99 BRIGGSMORE AVE 9TH ST SYLVAN AVE PELANDALE AVE BANGS AVE Sutter Plant ?Î LAND USE MAP FIGURE 2.2 CITY OF MODESTO WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM MASTER PLAN Legend Land Use Residential Village Residential Downtown Commercial Regional Comercial Business-Commercial-Residential Business Park Industrial Mixed Use Open Space City Limits Sphere of Influence Existing North Ceres Service Area Future North Ceres Service Area Roads O 0 1 2 Miles Beard Industrial Park Empire North Ceres ---PAGE BREAK--- ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-7 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx The following list describes various land uses within the City’s urban area. For more information on land use designations, refer to the City’s General Plan. Land use designations are also illustrated in Figure 2.2. Residential This designation is given to residential areas throughout the City. It primarily consists of single-family detached housing, but it also includes mobile homes, schools, parks, churches, and some multi-family housing. Village Residential (VR): This designation is given to areas of the City that allow for the development of urban “villages,” which are mixed-use, compact, pedestrian- and transit- oriented developments. Villages contain predominantly single-family residential housing, but they can also include multi-family and senior housing, commercial uses, schools, and parks. Mixed Use (MU): This designation is given to areas of the City that are already developed and provide for a combination of uses in close proximity to each other, including multi-family residential, commercial, office, and institutional. This designation also characterizes large areas of multi-family housing. Downtown This designation is given to areas of the City that provide for a combination of uses, including residential. It also provides for higher density development to create a balanced and vibrant downtown. Commercial This designation provides for the full range of commercial uses to serve the current and projected needs of the City’s population. It encompasses all ranges of service and retail uses, including, but not limited to, offices, neighborhood retail centers, and downtown commercial districts. Regional Commercial (RC): This designation is given to large-scale commercial areas used to sell goods and services that meet the needs of both the region and the local community. Business-Commercial-Residential (BCR): This designation is given to areas with employment-intensive uses and medium-high-density residential uses with a variety of goods and services. These areas encourage job growth within close proximity of residential areas. Business Park (BP): This designation is given to areas of light industrial and employment- intensive uses. The goal of these areas is to produce an environment conducive to industry and employers seeking an aesthetically attractive “campus-like” setting. ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-8 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx Industrial This designation characterizes industrial uses in the City and provides for the full range of industrial uses, including, but not limited to, manufacturing, food processing, trucking, packing, and recycling. It also includes enterprises that combine office and production aspects of their business in the same complex. Open Space (OS): This designation is given to areas of regional recreational open space (active and passive) along the Tuolumne River and Dry Creek. 2.5 COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING DISTRICTS The Modesto Urban Area General Plan Community Growth Strategy calls for a periodic review of growth trends in the Modesto urban area. As noted in the Community Growth Strategy, this review should select potential areas in which urban infrastructure will be developed over the next five years. Comprehensive Planning Districts (CPDs) represent the City’s current near and long-term growth and guide the planning of infrastructure improvements identified in this Master Plan. This section describes each of the 18 CPDs located within the study area. Figure 2.3 shows their locations in relation to existing City limits and the study area boundary. The land acreages provided for the following CPDs are derived from several sources, including the City’s GIS shape files, the 2015 Urban Growth Policy Review, the City’s Urban Area General Plan, and specific plans for each CPD. The 2015 Urban Growth Policy Review also summarizes land subject to a Williamson Act contract, which restricts development of the affected parcel for a ten-year period. However, the 2015 Urban Growth Policy Review states that land can still be developed if a penalty is paid. For this reason, such land should be considered future inventory. Beckwith/Dakota. This 220-acre CPD is comprised of regional commercial use and is located adjacent to Union Pacific Railroad and State Route 99. Currently, this CPD consists of agricultural land. Coffee/Claratina. This 180-acre CPD is essentially an extension of the existing residential development pattern south of its location. Of the 180 acres, approximately 145 acres are designated residential, 14 acres are designated commercial, and 21 acres are designated mixed use. This CPD is located within current city limits, with the exception of twelve acres of the Modesto Mobile Home Park that remain unincorporated. The residential land use is currently built-out, while approximately 12 acres of mixed land use and 12 acres of commercial land use are vacant. College West. This 239-acre CPD is comprised entirely of business park uses. The site fronts on Brink Avenue frontage road, the Union Pacific Railroad, and State Route 99. Currently, The CPD is predominantly agriculture. ---PAGE BREAK--- KIERNAN AVE COVERT RD BACON RD BECKWITH RD NORTH AVE WOODLAND AVE MAZE BLVD CALIFORNIA AVE PARADISE RD WHITMORE AVE SHOEMAKE AVE BLUE GUM AVE KANSAS AVE STODDARD RD AMERICAN AVE TULLY RD MC HENRY AVE COFFEE RD OAKDALE RD ROSELLE AVE CLAUS RD LANGWORTH RD CARVER RD DALE RD PRESCOTT RD FINNEY RD ALBERS RD HWY 99 HWY 99 HWY 99 BRIGGSMORE AVE 9TH ST SYLVAN AVE PELANDALE AVE BANGS AVE Highway 132 Village One Tuolumne River Regional Park Roselle-Claribel Kiernan-McHenry Kiernan-Carver North Kiernan-Carver Johansen Highway 132 Hetch-Hetchy Fairveiw Empire North Dry Creek College West Beckwith-Dakota Pelandale-Snyder North Beyer Palendale-McHenry Coffee-Claratina Shackelford ?Î COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING DISTRICTS FIGURE 2.3 CITY OF MODESTO WASTEWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM MASTER PLAN Legend Roads Modesto City Limits CPDs Shackelford Study Area Boundary Existing North Ceres Service Area Future North Ceres Service Area O 0 1 2 Miles Beard Industrial Park Empire North Ceres ---PAGE BREAK--- ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-10 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx Dry Creek. This 540-acre CPD contains a significant amount of City-owned public land along the Dry Creek floodplain. Empire North. This 220-acre CPD is intended for predominantly village residential uses immediately north of existing residential development in Empire. Of the 220 acres, approximately 160 acres are designated village residential and 60 acres are designated residential. This CPD is divided by Dry Creek, with the area north of Dry Creek designated residential, and the area south of Dry Creek designated village residential. The area to the north has approximately 35 acres of existing residential development, while the area south of Dry Creek is undeveloped. Fairview. This CPD consists of 372 acres and is intended for predominately residential uses. Land use designated for this area includes residential uses, a neighborhood commercial center, an elementary school, and neighborhood parks. Of the 372 acres, approximately 211 acres are designated residential, 138 acres are designated village residential, and 23 acres are designated commercial. Currently, approximately 78 acres of residential land use is developed on the north end of this CPD. Hetch Hetchy. This 960-acre CPD, located between Claribel Road and Claratina Avenue, proposes predominantly village residential uses. Designated village residential and regional commercial areas comprise 795 acres and 165 acres, respectively. The regional commercial land uses along McHenry Avenue are currently developed with numerous auto dealerships. State Route 132 Business Park. This 973-acre CPD proposes 940 acres for a business park that would benefit from its proximity to Highway 132. The CPD also proposes approximately 33 acres for residential use. Currently, The CPD is predominantly agriculture. Johansen. This 600-acre CPD proposes all land use for predominantly village residential. It is located immediately east of the Claus Expressway. A portion of the Johansen CPD is already developed with three schools: Johansen High School, Stroud Elementary School, and Glick Middle School. Additionally, a portion of this CPD is incorporated into city limits. Kiernan/Carver. This 1,412 CPD consists of 568-acres of business park, 487 acres of business-commercial-residential, 55 acres of mixed use, 60 acres of regional commercial, and 242 acres of residential. Portions of this CPD are developed including approximately 160 acres of residential, 52 acres of regional commercial, and 60 acres of business park. Kiernan/Carver North. This 787-acre CPD is designated for a business park and is located on the north side of Kiernan Avenue, outside of City limits. Currently, this area is predominately agriculture, but it includes Stanislaus Elementary School and pockets of existing commercial development. ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-11 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx Kiernan/McHenry. This 470-acre CPD is composed of commercial and business park uses. Designated business park and regional commercial areas comprise 370 and 100 acres, respectively. This area is partially developed on the eastern side of the CPD, and the western portion of the CPD is currently comprised of agricultural uses. North Beyer. This 180-acre CPD is essentially an extension of the existing residential development south of Mabel Avenue. Of the 180 acres, 160 are designated residential and 20 acres are designated mixed use. This CPD is built-out aside from 25 acres of vacant residential land and 6 acres of vacant mixed-use land. Pelandale/McHenry. This 86-acre CPD is composed of residential and commercial uses. Designated residential and regional commercial areas comprise 78 and 8 acres, respectively. Currently, approximately 15 acres of residential land use are developed as a mobile home community. The commercial area consists of a parking lot and underdeveloped lots. Pelandale/Snyder. This 392-acre CPD is essentially an extension of the existing residential area south of Snyder Avenue. A majority of the land is designated residential and accounts for 364 acres. The remaining land use comprises 9 acres for mixed use and 19 acres of commercial. With the exception of approximately 3 acres of commercial and 13 acres of residential, this CPD is built-out. Roselle/Claribel. This 1,622-acre CPD is intended for a mixed-use, pedestrian-oriented community similar to Village One. Designated residential and village residential uses comprise 379 and 842 acres, respectively. The remaining land use comprises 3 acres for mixed use, 30 acres for commercial, 110 acres for regional commercial, and 258 acres for business-commercial-residential. Currently, pockets of residential and commercial areas exist within this CPD. Tuolumne River. This 1,543-acre CPD contains a significant amount of public land owned by a joint powers agreement between Modesto, Ceres, and Stanislaus County. The entire area is designated open space. Interim residential uses may be allowed, as provided by the Open Space Land Use Designation. Village One. This 1,900-acre CPD is intended to reflect the Village One Specific Plan, as adopted by the City Council in 1990 and amended several times since then. The designated land uses for this CPD consist of 1,476 acres of residential, 10 acres of mixed use, 78 acres of commercial, and 336 acres of business-commercial-residential. This area is substantially built out with residential neighborhoods and commercial and public facilities such as parks and schools. ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-12 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx 2.6 HISTORICAL AND FUTURE GROWTH After incorporating in 1884, the City of Modesto has thrived on an agricultural-based economy. Recently, the City has seen dramatic shifts in its population. Since 1980, the City has grown by 92 percent, from a population of 106,600 to approximately 204,900 in 2013 (US Census estimate). It has also become the largest incorporated city in Stanislaus County and accounts for approximately 39 percent of the County’s population (525,286). With these changes, the City of Modesto has gradually evolved from a small agricultural- based community into a medium-sized metropolitan center, with many of its residents choosing to commute to work in the Bay Area (Modesto General Plan Master EIR Final, 2008). From 1940 to 1990, the City experienced rapid growth, with its population increasing from 16,379 to 164,730 persons at an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. However, between 1990 and 2000, population growth slowed from 164,730 to 188,900 persons, with an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent. During this ten-year period, the annual population growth rate ranged from 0.1 percent in 1995 to 2.8 percent in 1991. Between 2000 and 2010, the City’s population also grew slowly from 188,900 to 201,900 at an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent. Table 2.3 summarizes the City’s current and projected population through year 2035, which is based on an assumed average annual population growth rate of 1.3 percent per year. This was done per the direction of City staff. Table 2.3 Historical and Projected Population Wastewater Collection System Master Plan City of Modesto, California Year Estimated Sewer Service Population 20002 188,900 20102 201,900 20152 209,200 2020 223,100 2025 238,000 2030 253,900 2035 270,900 Notes: Projected data from 2015 to 2035 assumed an average annual growth rate of 1.3%. This information is derived from California Department of Finance Population Estimates. ---PAGE BREAK--- April 2016 - FINAL DRAFT 2-13 pw://Carollo/Documents/Client/CA/Modesto/9704A00 - WW Collection/Deliverables/CH02/Draft Final - Ch02 CS.docx 2.7 INDUSTRIAL GROWTH The City’s GIS shape files from the 2009 Urban Growth Policy Review Report contained an inventory of vacant and underdeveloped industrial-zoned properties within the SOI. Since then, the shape files have been updated based on aerial photography and GIS information. Thus, the current inventory identifies new areas within the City and unincorporated areas in the SOI that can be used for industrial and business park development. Appendix B contains updated figures showing the distribution of vacant industrial, commercial, and residential sites. The maps include vacant sites within the SOI, including the Beard Industrial District and the North McHenry Business Park. In this Master Plan, the current assumptions for projecting build-out flows provide for future increases in flow by assuming that these vacant and underdeveloped areas will be fully developed. A similar assumption was made for lands designated for commercial use in the City’s General Plan.