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7041 Koll Center Parkway, Suite 110 Pleasanton, CA 94566 Phone [PHONE REDACTED] Fax [PHONE REDACTED] e-mail: [EMAIL REDACTED] TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM DATE: October 6, 2009 Project No.: 418-02-07-22 TO: Jack Bond, City of Modesto CC: Rich Ulm, City of Modesto Jim Alves, City of Modesto Glenn Prasad, City of Modesto FROM: Charles Duncan Amy Kwong SUBJECT: City of Modesto’s 2010 Water System Engineer’s Report Existing and Buildout Demand Evaluation (Demand TM) 1.0 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this technical memorandum (TM) is to describe the existing and projected water demands that need to be served by the City of Modesto (City) water system for use in the 2010 Water System Engineer’s Report. The City has been providing potable water service to its urban area since 1895 through the purchase and acquisition of several private water companies. Until 1995, the sole source of water supplies to the City was groundwater from the Modesto and Turlock groundwater subbasins. In the early 1990s, the City, Modesto Irrigation District (MID), and the Del Este Water Company formed a partnership to use a portion of MID’s surface water rights for municipal uses. Completed in 1995, the resulting Modesto Regional Water Treatment Plant in addition to storage and delivery facilities, provides 30 million gallon per day (mgd), on an annual average daily basis, or 33,600 acre-feet per year (af/yr). A Phase Two Expansion of the original project is currently under construction (expected to be completed in early 2010) and will provide an additional capacity of 30 mgd for an annual average total of 60 mgd. In July of 1995, the City acquired the Del Este Water Company, which had previously served approximately 30 percent of the municipal customers in the Modesto area. As a result of this acquisition, the City became the primary domestic water purveyor in Stanislaus County. The delivers treated surface water to municipal customers within the City limits north of the Tuolumne River (southern boundary of MID’s service area), including the communities of Salida and Empire. ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 2 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB The following sections of this TM describe the data and methodology used to determine the City’s demands for its entire water system and includes the following sections: City of Modesto Water System Service Areas; Water Supply and Production; Unaccounted for Water due to System Losses; Water Demand; Unit Water Use Factors and Calculated Water Demands; Findings and Conclusions; and, Recommendations. 2.0 CITY OF MODESTO WATER SYSTEM SERVICE AREAS In addition to the City of Modesto proper, the City’s water system also provides domestic water to several other areas, which were previously served by the Del Este Water Company including the City of Waterford, portions of the cities of Ceres and Turlock, the communities of Salida, Empire, Del Rio, Grayson, and Hickman. The Riverdale Park Tract (approximately 40 acres located in the southwest portion of the contiguous service area) is physically connected to the City’s system to provide Riverdale with an emergency backup supply, and has only been used when the single well in the Riverdale area was inoperable or could not meet pressure requirements. A records check of the City’s billing data over the last two years indicates the water consumption from this area is negligible; therefore, the existing demands from the Riverdale area have not been included in this analysis. Salida, South Modesto/North Ceres and Empire are contiguous (interconnected) to the City of Modesto; therefore, these areas will be included in the City’s main hydraulic model. The outlying (non-contiguous) service areas of Del Rio, Ceres (Walnut Manor)1, Grayson, Waterford, Hickman, and portions of Turlock are small systems and will be modeled separately. 2.1 Contiguous Service Area Water System For the purposes of this TM and the subsequent Engineer’s Report, the City’s contiguous service area is primarily defined by the current Sphere of Influence (SOI), Salida, North Ceres, and some unincorporated Stanislaus County “islands” within and adjacent to the SOI (Empire is within the SOI). This contiguous service area consists of approximately 38,200 acres and is categorized as follows: 1 A separate hydraulic model has not been developed for the small Ceres (Walnut Manor) area (served by Well 213) because it is already builtout and only has about 50 services. However, the supply and demand values have been accounted for in the overall supply and demand calculations. ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 3 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB Redevelopment Area: Approximately 2,000 acres located in the downtown area of the City. Baseline Developed Area: Approximately 21,200 acres which is generally that portion of the City that is already developed. Planned Urbanizing Area: Approximately 12,800 acres that extends beyond the existing City limits for which the City would likely extend urban services at some point in the future. The Planned Urbanizing Area is organized into several Comprehensive Planning Districts (CPDs). Salida Community Plan: Approximately 1,500 acres that consists of primarily the former Del Este Tariff area within the community of Salida. North Ceres: Approximately 700 acres that consists of primarily the former Del Este Tariff area within the City of Ceres’ SOI. Figure 1 shows the various General Plan designated land uses within the contiguous service area. Figures are included in Attachment A that show the Redevelopment Area, Baseline Developed Area, and the Planned Urbanizing Area within the City’s General Plan Boundary as well as locations of individual CPDs. With the addition of North Ceres, the existing land uses within the contiguous service area are categorized according to the City’s General Plan land use designations and are summarized in Table 1. This information was used to calculate the areas associated with each land use designation, and their subsequent water demand allocation, in the development of the hydraulic model. Within the SOI, the City Community and Economic Development Department (CEDD) has designated several CPDs for future development areas, which specify the type and amount of development. To determine the existing vs. buildout land uses, the City CEDD provided information regarding the acreage of the CPD planning areas that were developed as of May 2006. A summary of this data is provided in Attachment A. However, since the Beckwith/Dakota, Kiernan/Carver North, and various other CPD’s surrounding the community of Salida are outside of the SOI, they were not included as part of this evaluation. Of the approximate total of 38,230 acres within the contiguous service area, about 26,880 acres are already developed (70 percent), leaving 11,350 acres (30 percent) to be developed. These areas are summarized in Table 2. The developed areas will be considered as part of the existing land use condition for modeling purposes. Areas not developed as of May 2006, will be considered as part of the buildout (estimated to occur around 2038) scenario. ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 4 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB Table 1. Contiguous Service Area Buildout (2038) Scenario Land Uses Land Use Designation Service Area at Buildout, acres(a) Percent of Total Contiguous Service Area Residential 13,403 35% Village Residential (VR) 7,557 20% Redevelopment Planning District (RPD) 1,972 5% Commercial 1,474 4% Regional Commercial (RC) 359 1% Industrial 3,278 9% Mixed Use (MU) 3,435 9% Business Park (BP) 2,411 6% Open Space (OS) 2,156 5% Salida Community Plan (SCP) 1,468 4% North Ceres(b) 714 2% Total 38,227 100% Based on General Plan land use map and CPD land use map shapefiles provided by City staff (modesto_gp_lu.shp and GP_LU in CPDs 07-07 for landuse spreadsheet.shp) in January 2008. A portion of North Ceres is within the former Del Este Tariff Area and has been interconnected with the South Modesto system. Based on Water Rate Zones map provided by City staff (wtr_rate_zones_agreement.shp) in January 2008. 2.2 Outlying Service Area Water Systems As stated above, the City also provides groundwater service to several small, outlying areas previously served by the Del Este Water Company. These areas include Del Rio, Ceres (Walnut Manor), Grayson, Waterford, Hickman and portions of Turlock. Attachment B shows the location for each of the outlying service areas. Pursuant to discussions with City staff, it was confirmed that the service areas for the outlying systems have not changed, except for the City of Waterford, since 2002 when those boundary areas were provided to West Yost Associates (WYA) for development of the original hydraulic model. Since 2002, Waterford has expanded their General Plan limits; however, the City is not obligated and currently does not intend to serve water to those new areas. Therefore, the recently updated Waterford General Plan boundary will not be included in this evaluation. Buildout of the outlying areas to be served by the City, as well as estimates of currently developed and undeveloped areas, are shown in Table 3. ---PAGE BREAK--- A B A-B Land Use Designation Service Area at Buildout, acres(a) Currently Undeveloped Service Area, acres(b) Currently Developed Service Area, acres Residential 13,403 226 13,177 Village Residential (VR) 7,557 5,081 2,476 Redevelopment Planning District (RPD) 1,972 0 1,972 Commerical 1,474 0 1,474 Regional Commercial (RC) 359 348 11 Industrial 3,278 1,456 1,822 Mixed Use (MU) 3,435 17 3,418 Business Park (BP) 2,411 2,168 243 Open Space (OS) 2,156 2,054 102 Salida Community Plan (SCP) 1,468 0 1,468 North Ceres(c) 714 0 714 Total 38,227 11,350 26,877 Percent Total General Plan Area 100% 30% 70% Table 2. Developed and Undeveloped Portions of the Contiguous Service Area Based on General Plan land use map and CPD land use map shapefiles provided by City staff (modesto_gp_lu and GP_LU in CPDs 07-07 for landuse spreadsheet.shp) in January 2008. Based on information obtained from the City's Community and Economic Development Department on acreage buildout of CPDs (see Appendix and residential vacancy map (vacant_residential_12-07.shp) and City staff. For the purposes of this analysis, information from the City describing vacant and underdeveloped areas were taken together and considered undeveloped areas. A portion of North Ceres is within the former Del Este Tariff Area and has been interconnected with the South Modesto system. Based on Water Rate Zones map provided by City staff (wtr_rate_zones_agreement.shp) in January 2008. West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceb2AppBTables Last Revised: 10/7/09 City of Modesto Engineer's Report Appendix B Demand Evaluation TM ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 6 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB Table 3. Developed and Undeveloped Portions of the Outlying Service Areas Service Area Service Area at Buildout, acres(a) Estimate of Percent Developed(b) Estimated Existing Developed Service Area, acres(b) Estimated Existing Undeveloped Service Area, acres(b) Del Rio 590 60% 354 236 Ceres (Walnut Manor) 29 100% 29 0 Grayson 120 75% 90 30 Waterford 950(c) 90% 855 95 Hickman 146 90% 131 15 Portions of Turlock (three areas) 99 100% 99 0 Total Outlying Service Areas 1,913 1,557 356 Based on information obtained from the City in 2002 and updated in January 2008. Estimated based on existing water connections by City staff in January 2008. Does not include any of the new area adopted as part of the expanded General Plan limits. 3.0 WATER SUPPLY AND PRODUCTION 3.1 Water Supply Sources The City obtains its water supply from two sources: MID treated surface water supplies and numerous City groundwater wells. The MID surface water supplies are treated at the MID’s located near the Modesto Reservoir, and conveyed to the City via transmission mains and two terminal storage tanks (owned by MID and constructed as part of the project) for direct use. The City has approximately 119 operational wells (an operational well is defined as any well that has not been formally abandoned), 94 of these are currently in production, and are located throughout the contiguous and outlying service areas. These wells discharge directly into the distribution system or into one of the City’s seven active storage tanks (Tanks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 in the contiguous service area and Tank 9 in the Grayson outlying service area). It should be noted that due to water quality and/or hydrogeologic conditions, local groundwater supplies are inadequate to meet certain water demands within the Salida and South Modesto/North Ceres portions of the contiguous service area. As a result, water is sometimes moved from interior sources via the interconnected transmission and distribution pipeline system to outer areas so as to supplement the locally available groundwater supplies. In Salida, the movement is via a metered connection (Meter No. PRE1296301) and two additional unmetered pipeline connections. In South Modesto/North Ceres, it is via flows from Tank 6 (located in North Modesto, north of the river) to Tank 7 (located in South Modesto) and flows which cross the river near Highway 99 to flow into Tank 3 (located in South Modesto). 3.2 Water Production Water production for the City’s entire water system (both contiguous and outlying service areas) is summarized in Table 4 for calendar years 2000 through 2009. ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 7 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB Table 4. Annual Water System Production (2000 to 2009)(a,b,c) Annual Water Production, gallons Water Supply 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Surface Water 10,984,790,144 11,381,164,032 11,054,016,168 11,511,966,400 11,433,991,299 Groundwater 13,919,374,936 14,987,618,945 16,066,730,430 15,483,545,853 15,217,531,578 Total, gallons 24,904,165,080 26,368,782,977 27,120,746,598 26,995,512,253 26,651,522,877 Total, acre-feet 76,428 80,923 83,231 82,846 81,791 Annual Average Daily Production, mgd 68.2 72.2 74.3 74.0 73.0 Water Supply 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Surface Water 10,592,208,614 10,917,791,035 11,916,691,162 10,438,079,956 9,240,393,430 Groundwater 15,178,152,334 14,744,535,117 13,969,100,199 14,744,031,578 13,786,597,276 Total, gallons 25,770,360,948 25,662,326,152 25,885,791,361 25,182,111,534 23,026,990,706 Total, acre-feet 79,086 78,755 79,441 77,281 70,670 Annual Average Daily Production, mgd 70.6 70.3 70.9 69.0 63.1 Data provided by City staff (2000 - 2006 Water System Summary by Year.xls) in December 2007. Includes surface water and all groundwater from contiguous and outlying service areas. Data provided by City staff system flow totals 2000 to present.xls) in April 2010. The City’s total water production, for both the contiguous and outlying service areas, by month for 2005 through 2009 is shown on Figure 2. Production from the fluctuates predictably throughout the year, averaging about 39 mgd during the summer months (June to September) and 24 mgd during the winter months (November to February), or approximately 30 mgd on an annual average daily basis (the has a functional capacity to produce 42.5 mgd and has been permitted by the State to produce 45 mgd for the last few years). From the data used to develop Figure 2, groundwater production is about 40 mgd on an annual average daily basis; however, seasonal fluctuations are such that the summertime use of groundwater is significantly higher than wintertime use. For example, groundwater production for the five years of data averaged 69 mgd in August to meet the high summer demand, while the average groundwater production in February was only 17 mgd. For reference purposes, Table 5 shows the City’s 2006 (year with the highest ratio of Maximum Day production to Average Day production) total water system production by service area. ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 8 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB Table 5. 2006 Water Production by Service Area (a,b) Service Area Existing (2006) Production, gallons Existing (2006) Production, acre-feet Existing (2006) Annual Average Daily Production, mgd Contiguous Service Area: Surface Water 10,917,791,035 33,505 29.91 Groundwater 13,585,708,658 41,693 37.22 Subtotal Contiguous Service Area 24,503,499,693 75,198 67.13 Outlying Service Areas: Del Rio 226,027,422 694 0.62 Ceres (Walnut Manor)(c) 9,487,532 29 0.03 Grayson 57,218,042 176 0.16 Waterford 687,804,750 2,111 1.88 Hickman 63,265,837 194 0.17 Portions of Turlock 115,022,876 353 0.32 Subtotal Outlying Service Areas 1,158,826,459 3,557 3.18 Total 25,662,326,152 78,755 70.31 Data provided by City staff (2000 - 2006 Water System Summary by Year.xls) in December 2007. Includes surface water and all groundwater from the contiguous and outlying service areas. Data provided by City staff well flow totals 2002 to present.xls) in January 2008. 3.3 Maximum Day Production Daily water production data for the City’s entire water system (both contiguous and outlying service areas) was evaluated to determine Maximum Day production totals. A summary of the maximum water production days from 2000 to 2009 is provided in Table 6 and shows that the Maximum Day peaking factor (the ratio of Maximum Day production to Average Day production) ranged from 1.63 in 2007 to 1.87 in 2006. The 10-year average Maximum Day peaking factor is 1.75 and will be used for this TM and the subsequent Engineer’s Report (in previous TM’s, a factor of 1.74 had been used). ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 9 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB Table 6. Maximum Day Water Production (a,b) Year Average Day Production, mgd Date Corresponding to Maximum Day Production Maximum Day Production, mgd Maximum Day Peaking Factor 2000 68.2 August 1 118.2 1.73 2001 72.2 August 8 124.6 1.72 2002 74.3 July 10 128.9 1.73 2003 74.0 July 22 133.3 1.80 2004 73.0 July 22 124.9 1.71 2005 70.6 August 9 129.3 1.83 2006 70.3 July 25 131.4 1.87 2007 70.8 August 30 115.4 1.63 2008 69.0 August 28 116.5 1.69 2009 63.1 July 19 110.3 1.75 10-year Average 70.6 123.3 1.75 Data for 2000 to 2002 from Final Water Demand Evaluation TM completed by WYA in March 2003. Data for 2003 to 2007 provided by City staff (daily_water_flow.txt) in November 2007. Data for 2008 and 2009 provided by City staff in April 2010 (daily total system-wide flow last five years.xls). Includes surface water and all groundwater from contiguous and outlying service areas. 3.4 Peak Hour Production The combined hourly water production data from the contiguous and outlying service areas was evaluated to determine Peak Hour production total (water produced and pumped from all sources including the wells, and City owned tanks). Based on hourly production data for the period from July 24, 2006 through July 26, 2006, the Peak Hour production was 7.2 million gallons from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. on July 25, 2006 (this date was used because it generated the largest Maximum Day peaking factor from Table Figure 3 shows the hourly water production by source on July 25, 2006. The provided 58.2 mgd or 34 percent of the supply; the wells provided 98.9 mgd or 57 percent of the supply; and approximately 15.9 mgd, or 9 percent of the supply was provided from the City owned tanks. This Peak Hour production is equivalent to 173.0 mgd or about 2.46 times the Average Day demand for 2006. A Peak Hour peaking factor of 2.46 will be used for this TM and the subsequent Engineer’s Report (in previous TM’s, a factor of 2.53 had been used). Table 7 summarizes the adopted peaking factors. Table 7. Water Demand Peaking Factors Demand Condition Peaking Factor(a,b) Maximum Day 1.75 x Average Day Peak Hour 2.46 x Average Day Based on available water production data, and includes the contiguous and outlying service area’s data factored together. These two peaking factors will be used in calculations for future demand projections. ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 10 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB 4.0 UNACCOUNTED FOR WATER DUE TO SYSTEM LOSSES Ideally, if the City read individual meters for every customer, the metered water use should exactly equal the amount of water that is being produced from the City’s wells and tanks plus the terminal storage booster pumps. However, this is not the case for the City’s water distribution system because the City does not currently meter all of their customers, which means a direct comparison between actual customer water use and production data is not relevant. In addition, even though the production does indeed equal total system water demand, customer water use typically does not equal production because the total system water demand also includes unmeasured system losses. These "lost" flows are referred to as unaccounted for water. There are various reasons why the total customer water use is less than the total amount of water produced by the City. The most common reasons for unaccounted for water are due to system losses such as leakage, errors in measurement, and unmetered usage. Leakage: Leakage is frequently the largest component of unaccounted for water and includes distribution losses from supply pipes, distribution and trunk mains, customer services up to the meter, and tanks. The amount of leakage varies from system to system, but there is a general correlation between the age of a system and the amount of unaccounted for water. Other factors affecting leakage include system pressure (the higher the pressure, the more leakage), frequency of main and service pipe breaks, and the extent of leakage detection and control policies. Errors in Measurement: Flow measurements are not always exact, and thus metered customer usage may contain inaccuracies. Some flow meters under-register actual usage at low flow rates, especially as they age. Unmetered Usage: The City may have illegal connections or other types of unmetered water use (not including residential flat rate usage). Not all unmetered usage is due to water theft, as fire hydrants, blow-offs, and other maintenance appurtenances are typically not metered. Water utilities strive to minimize the amount of unaccounted for water; however, it is difficult, if not impossible, to eliminate entirely. A survey of water agencies in the United States conducted by the American Water Works Association (AWWA) found that unaccounted for water in utilities across the country varied between 7.5 percent to 25 percent2. Because the City does not meter all customer water use, it is difficult to calculate the exact amount of unaccounted for water lost throughout the entire system. For purposes of this evaluation, unaccounted for water for the overall system is assumed to be 15 percent. As an example, based on the 2006, total production of 78,755 acre-feet (70.3 mgd) from the contiguous and outlying service areas, 15 percent unaccounted for water equals about 11,813 acre-feet (10.5 mgd) of water. Evaluation of available metered customer water use data, described below, indicates that the assumed 15 percent unaccounted for water quantity is a reasonable estimate for 2 Survey of State Agency Water Loss Reporting Practices, Final Report to the American Water Works Association, prepared by Janice A. Beecher, Ph.D., Beecher Policy Research, Inc., January 2002. ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 11 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB the City’s entire system losses. However, metering and reading of the City’s entire residential sector will be required to verify this. 5.0 WATER DEMAND The total system water demand is the driving force behind the hydraulic dynamics occurring in water distribution systems. Anywhere that water can leave the system represents a point of demand a customer's faucet, a leaky main, or an open fire hydrant). There are typically two main components of total system water demand, they include: Customer water use or customer demand: the water required to meet the non- emergency needs of users in the system. This demand type typically represents the metered portion of the total water demand. Unaccounted for water or unmetered system losses: the portion of total water demand that is "lost" due to system leakage, theft, unmetered water use (not including residential flat rate usage), or other causes. As mentioned above, the City does not yet meter all customer water use within its system; however, the City is currently retrofitting existing residential water services with meters that do not yet have them (commercial and industrial customers are already metered). According to the City’s 2006 (used to coincide with 2006 data used elsewhere in this TM and the 2010 Water System Engineer’s Report) Annual Report to the California Department of Health Services (now known as Department of Public Health), the City has a total of 77,422 water accounts (includes all customer types). Of these, only 13,340 accounts are billed based on metered customer use. The remaining 64,082 accounts are billed based on a flat rate. A summary of the metered customer water use for 2003 through 2006 is provided in Table 8. Table 8. Metered Customer Water Use (2003 to 2006)(a,b) Year Metered Customer Use, cf Metered Customer Use, gallons Metered Customer Use, acre-feet Metered Customer Use, mgd 2003 1,246,483,700 9,323,698,076 28,615 25.5 2004 1,243,795,400 9,303,589,592 28,554 25.5 2005 1,148,215,600 8,588,652,688 26,359 23.5 2006 1,108,611,500 8,292,414,020 25,450 22.7 Data provided by City staff (MODE Consumption Data Extract 03-07.xls) in November 2007. Includes customer use from meters which are read in the entire water system (contiguous and outlying service areas). Does not include data for Meter No. PRE1296301 which accounts for the transfer of water from the City of Modesto to Salida. Many of the non-residential accounts which are billed based on metered customer use are food processing facilities and other types of industries which operate primarily in the summer months when fruits and vegetables are harvested and processed. An evaluation of the metered consumer use data (Figure indicates that the average metered use per day is approximately ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 12 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB 38.3 mgd during the summer months (June through September), which is over one and a half times the annual average metered use of 24.3 mgd. Based on the metered customer use data summarized in Table 8, the City’s total water production in Table 4, and assuming a system-wide unaccounted for water of 15 percent, the calculated breakdown between metered and unmetered customer water use for 2003 through 2006 is shown in Table 9. This data, as depicted in Table 9 and Figure 5, indicates an apparent system-wide trend where metered use has decreased over the four years analyzed by approximately 11 percent [1-(25,450 / 28,615)], while unmetered use has remained relatively stable. Table 9. Comparison of Metered vs. Unmetered Customer Water Use, acre-feet (mgd) 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Water Production(a) 82,846 (74.0) 81,791 (73.0) 79,086 (70.6) 78,755 (70.3) Unaccounted For Water (15 percent) 12,427 (11.1) 12,269 (11.0) 11,863 (10.6) 11,813 (10.5) Total Customer Use (Total Production minus Unaccounted For Water) 70,419 (62.9) 69,522 (62.0) 67,223 (60.0) 66,942 (59.8) Metered Customer Use 28,615 (25.5) 28,554 (25.5) 26,359 (23.5) 25,450 (22.7) Metered Customer Use as a Percent of Total Customer Use 41% 41% 39% 38% Unmetered Customer Use (Total Customer Use minus Metered Customer Use) 41,804 (37.4) 40,968 (36.5) 40,864 (36.5) 41,492 (37.1) Unmetered Customer Use as a Percent of Total Customer Use 59% 59% 61% 62% Data taken from Table 4. Includes customer use from meters which are read in the entire water system (contiguous and outlying service areas) and for all customer types (residential, commercial, and industrial). Does not include use for Meter No. PRE1296301, which accounts for a portion of the transfer of water from the City of Modesto to Salida. 5.1 Large Water Users Within the City’s metered water users, there are several accounts (customers) that are considered large water users. These accounts are grouped by addresses to create a list of the 50 highest water users for 2008, as shown in Table 10. The Top 50 users have an average water use of approximately 30 gpm or higher. 6.0 UNIT WATER USE FACTORS AND CALCULATED WATER DEMANDS For this TM and the subsequent Engineer’s Report, the unit water use factors per land use type, shown on Table 11, were taken from the City of Modesto 2005 Hydraulic Model Update, prepared by WYA. However, with the ongoing installation of meters throughout the City’s system (with an expected reduction in future water use), it is recommended that the unit water use factors be re-evaluated during the upcoming development of the Water Master Plan. ---PAGE BREAK--- Rank Address User Type User Name Customer Use, cubic feet Customer Use, gallons Customer Use, acre feet Total Average Day Customer Use, mgd Total Average Day Customer Use, gpm 1 2801 FINCH RD, MODESTO Industrial Signature Fruit 56,278,500 420,963,180 1,292 1.15 801 2 415 KANSAS AVE, MODESTO Industrial Foster Farms 33,677,700 251,909,196 773 0.69 479 3 300 12TH ST, MODESTO Industrial 20,633,800 154,340,824 474 0.42 294 4 0 8TH & KANSAS AVE, MODESTO 20,187,000 150,998,760 463 0.41 287 5 229 12TH ST, MODESTO Industrial 10,166,900 76,048,412 233 0.21 145 6 1700 COFFEE RD, MODESTO Medical Memorial Hospital 9,484,900 70,947,052 218 0.19 135 7 2201 BLUE GUM AVE, MODESTO School Modesto Junior College West 9,413,600 70,413,728 216 0.19 134 8 736 GARNER RD, MODESTO Industrial Carnation 8,451,300 63,215,724 194 0.17 120 9 600 YOSEMITE BLVD, MODESTO Industrial Gallo 7,297,800 54,587,544 168 0.15 104 10 214 12TH ST, MODESTO Industrial 7,209,300 53,925,564 166 0.15 103 11 680 CLAUS RD, MODESTO School Johanson High School 6,829,200 51,082,416 157 0.14 97 12 1441 FLORIDA AVE, MODESTO Medical Doctors Medical Center 6,592,800 49,314,144 151 0.14 94 13 435 COLLEGE AVE, MODESTO School Modesto Junior College 5,599,900 41,887,252 129 0.11 80 14 601 ZEFF RD, MODESTO Industrial 5,286,000 39,539,280 121 0.11 75 15 3401 DALE RD, MODESTO Commercial Vintage Fair Mall 4,990,400 37,328,192 115 0.10 71 16 2857 W WHITMORE AVE, MODESTO 4,744,200 35,486,616 109 0.10 68 17 1701 ROBERTSON RD, MODESTO Apt Complex 4,724,000 35,335,520 108 0.10 67 18 705 E WHITMORE AVE, MODESTO Industrial 4,651,300 34,791,724 107 0.10 66 19 1900 OAKDALE RD, MODESTO Apt Complex 4,350,200 32,539,496 100 0.09 62 20 1200 W RUMBLE RD, MODESTO School Davis High School 3,951,000 29,553,480 91 0.08 56 21 1717 SYLVAN AVE, MODESTO School Beyer High School 3,949,900 29,545,252 91 0.08 56 22 501 NEECE DR, MODESTO L/S Park (OS) Golf Course 3,664,900 27,413,452 84 0.08 52 23 1836 LAPHAM DR, MODESTO Industrial 3,628,400 27,140,432 83 0.07 52 24 1115 H ST, MODESTO 3,429,500 25,652,660 79 0.07 49 25 1000 COFFEE RD, MODESTO School Downey High School 3,407,600 25,488,848 78 0.07 48 26 3700 TULLY RD, MODESTO Apt Complex 3,404,300 25,464,164 78 0.07 48 27 301 STANDIFORD AVE, MODESTO Apt Complex 2,963,700 22,168,476 68 0.06 42 28 0 BEAR CUB LN L/S, MODESTO 2,933,500 21,942,580 67 0.06 42 29 1200 SUTTER AVE, MODESTO 2,886,900 21,594,012 66 0.06 41 30 1031 TIOGA DR, MODESTO 2,872,900 21,489,292 66 0.06 41 31 3001 HAHN DR, MODESTO Apt Complex 2,764,800 20,680,704 63 0.06 39 32 2833 YOSEMITE BLVD, MODESTO Commercial 2,714,700 20,305,956 62 0.06 39 33 2100 YOSEMITE BLVD, MODESTO 2,533,100 18,947,588 58 0.05 36 34 1401 LAKEWOOD AVE, MODESTO Apt Complex 2,531,900 18,938,612 58 0.05 36 35 4601 DALE RD, MODESTO 2,529,600 18,921,408 58 0.05 36 36 2243 W RUMBLE RD, MODESTO 2,482,400 18,568,352 57 0.05 35 37 1200 BRIGHTON AVE L/S, MODESTO Park (OS) Downey Park 2,480,100 18,551,148 57 0.05 35 38 5041 TOOMES RD, SALIDA School Salida High School 2,377,300 17,782,204 55 0.05 34 39 2800 BRADEN DR, MODESTO Apt Complex 2,353,200 17,601,936 54 0.05 33 40 1122 CEDAR CREEK DR, MODESTO Apt Complex 2,326,100 17,399,228 53 0.05 33 41 1400 CELESTE DR, MODESTO Commercial/Medical 2,325,300 17,393,244 53 0.05 33 42 3700 BEYER PARK DR L/S, MODESTO Park (OS) Beyer City Park 2,229,900 16,679,652 51 0.05 32 43 1037 FLOYD AVE, MODESTO 2,146,900 16,058,812 49 0.04 31 44 2000 MABLE AVE, MODESTO Apt Complex 2,131,700 15,945,116 49 0.04 30 45 2621 PRESCOTT RD, MODESTO Mobil Home Park 2,129,500 15,928,660 49 0.04 30 46 100 PARADISE RD L/S, MODESTO School Modesto High School 2,048,400 15,322,032 47 0.04 29 47 2701 KODIAK DR L/S, MODESTO 2,019,500 15,105,860 46 0.04 29 48 2200 STANDIFORD AVE, MODESTO 2,019,400 15,105,112 46 0.04 29 49 5609 SUN VALLEY CT, SALIDA 1,984,700 14,845,556 46 0.04 28 50 0 AIRPORT WAY L/S, MODESTO 1,984,700 14,845,556 46 0.04 28 313,774,600 2,347,034,008 7,203 6.43 4,465 Table 10. Top 50, 2008 Largest Water Users by Address Data provided by City staff (Top 50 2006 thru 2009_v2.xls. Total Top 50 Total Metered Use Percent of Total Top 50 to Total Metered Use West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceb2AppBTables Last Revised: 10/7/09 City of Modesto Engineer's Report Appendix B Demand Evaluation TM ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 14 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB Table 11. Unit Water Use Factors(a) Land Use Designation Unit Water Use Factor, af/ac/yr Contiguous Service Area: Residential 3.00 Village Residential (VR) 2.50 Redevelopment Planning District (RPD) 2.75 Commercial 2.00 Regional Commercial (RC) 2.00 Industrial 2.75 Mixed Use (MU) 2.75 Business Park (BP) 2.00 Open Space (OS) 0.00 Salida Community Plan (SCP)(b) 2.75 North Ceres (NC) 3.00 Outlying Service Areas: Del Rio, Ceres (Walnut Manor), Grayson, Waterford, Hickman and Turlock (an assumed factor based on land uses being primarily residential) 2.70 The unit water use factors were taken from the City of Modesto 2005 Hydraulic Model Update, prepared by WYA. The unit water use factor for the SCP is based on the MU unit water use factor. For this TM and Engineer’s Report, residential water use was reduced by 10 percent, to account for anticipated water use reductions as the City implements its metering program. WYA researched potential savings from conversion of flat rate customers to metered usage. Studies by the California Public Utilities Commission have shown that communities with metered water systems typically use 7 to 20 percent less water than non-metered systems. The California Urban Water Conservation Council indicates that a usage reduction of 20 percent can be assumed with a combination of conversion to metered usage, and volumetric rate charges. Actual savings will depend on a number of factors, including billings based on the volumetric rate charges compared with the flat rate service charge. In the absence of system-specific data, a savings of 10 percent was used as a conservative, but reasonable value. As noted above, once the City develops a significant residential metered use history, it will be possible to refine both residential unit water use factors to project future demand projections. Based on the unit water use factors and the buildout land use acreages within the service areas shown in Tables 1 and 3, the total customer water demand for the future land uses for the contiguous and outlying service areas can be determined. The buildout customer water demands ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 15 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB are based on the various land uses within the City’s total service area3 and are shown on Table 12. The table also indicates the estimated reduction in future demands due to conversion of existing flat rate residential customers to metered service. This adjustment was made by taking 10 percent of the estimated flat rate usage in 2006 (the baseline year used for the analysis) as shown in Table 9. For projecting future water demands, a baseline Average Day demand is required. As discussed in the unaccounted for water section of this TM, there is no precise way to measure customer water use due to the City’s current billing procedure of having some residential flat-fee accounts, except to set the baseline demand equal to production. Therefore, throughout this TM (and the other related TM’s), by definition, the system wide baseline demand (“demand”) includes both customer water use (the amount actually measured and billed) and unaccounted for water (unmeasured system losses). As a benchmark, the Average Day production of 2006 was set as the baseline demand from which future demand distributions were built. Since the baseline demand was established as equal to production, it was assumed that future projections of water demands would also equal production. A summary of the projected customer water demands and required water production to meet the projected water demands is provided in Table 13. Required production for the contiguous area, shown in the table, reflects adjustments to residential use to account for conversion from flat rate services to metered service. 7.0 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS Based on information provided by the City, approximately 70 percent of the contiguous service area is currently developed. Excluding Open Space, approximately 9,300 acres remains to be developed within the contiguous service area. The City’s total water production over the last few years has ranged from about 73,000 af/yr (65 mgd) to about 80,000 af/yr (71 mgd). Of this total production, about 34,000 af/yr (30 mgd) is supplied by MID surface water, while the remaining amount is supplied by the City’s numerous groundwater wells. Production data from 2003 to 2009 shows that the City’s use of MID surface water supplies fluctuates predictably throughout the year, averaging about 39 mgd during the summer months (June to September) and 24 mgd during the winter months (November to February). Use of groundwater supplies varies throughout the year, but during the summer months when demands are high, groundwater production has averaged 69 mgd in August. The Average Day production for the City’s entire water system (contiguous and outlying service areas) in 2006 was 70.3 mgd. The Maximum Day production in 2006 was 131.4 mgd (July 25, 2006). The Peak Hour production from 8:00 to 9:00 pm on July 25, 2006 was 173.0 mgd. The resulting adopted peaking factors are as follows: 3 The buildout customer demands from the outlying service areas of Ceres (Walnut Manor) and portions of Turlock were assumed to equal existing water production minus 15 percent unaccounted for water because both outlying service areas are fully developed. ---PAGE BREAK--- CONTIGUOUS SERVICE AREA Total Area, acres Buildout Demand, af/yr Buildout Demand, mgd Residential 7.5 du/acre 3.00 13,403 40,208 35.90 Village Residential (VR) 5.1 du/acre with 4% of land devoted to commercial uses 2.50 7,557 18,892 16.87 North Ceres 3.00 714 2,143 1.91 Residential Subtotal 21,674 61,243 54.68 -4,149 -3.70 Residential Subtotal 21,674 57,094 50.98 Redevelopment Planning District (RPD) Mixed Use 2.75 1,972 5,423 4.84 Commerical 0.35 sf of building area per sf of gross acreage 2.00 1,474 2,948 2.63 Regional Commercial (RC) 0.35 sf of building area per sf of gross acreage 2.00 359 718 0.64 Industrial 0.30 to 0.50 sf of building area per sf of gross acreage 2.75 3,278 9,015 8.05 Mixed Use (MU) 14 du/acre with non-residential equal to 0.35 sf of building area per sf of gross acreage 2.75 3,435 9,446 8.43 Business Park (BP) 0.40 sf of building area per sf of gross acreage 2.00 2,411 4,822 4.30 Open Space (OS) Recreational Facilities, public ownership and agriculture 0.00 2,156 0 0.00 Salida Community Plan (SCP) Mixed Use 2.75 1,468 4,037 3.60 Non-Residential Subtotal 16,553 36,409 32.49 38,227 93,503 83.47 OUTLYING SERVICE AREAS Total Area, acres Buildout Demand, af/yr Buildout Demand, mgd Del Rio 2.70 590 1,593 1.42 Ceres (Walnut Manor)(b) 2.70 29 25 0.02 Grayson 2.70 99 267 0.24 Waterford 2.70 950 2,565 2.29 Hickman 2.70 146 394 0.35 Portions of Turlock(b) 2.70 99 300 0.27 1,913 5,144 4.59 Reductions due to savings from conversion of existing unmetered customers to metered use is 10% of existing flat rate use for 2006, as reported in Table 9. Table 12. Total Service Area Land Use at Buildout, Unit Water Factors, and Projected Customer Water Demands BUILDOUT (2038) Land Use Designation Description (as defined in the 1995 Urban Area General Plan) Unit Water Use Factor, af/ac/yr Total Contiguous Water Service Area Reductions due to Savings from Conversion of Existing Unmetered Customers to Metered Use(a) Since these outlying service areas are already builtout, the buildout customer water demand was adjusted to equal the existing production minus 15 percent unaccounted for water. BUILDOUT (2038) Service Area Description Unit Water Use Factor (based on land uses being primarily residential), af/ac/yr Total Outlying Service Areas West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB2AppBTables Last Revised: 10/7/09 City of Modesto Engineer's Report Appendix B Demand Evaluation TM ---PAGE BREAK--- Service Area Projected Customer Demand, af/yr Required Production, af/yr(a) Required Average Day Production, mgd(a) Required Maximum Day Production, mgd(a,b) Required Peak Hour Production, mgd(a,b) Buildout (2038) Condition: Contiguous Service Area 93,503 110,003 98.20 171.85 241.57 Outlying Service Areas: Del Rio 1,593 1,874 1.67 3.17 7.36 Ceres (Walnut Manor) 25 29 0.03 0.05 0.07 Grayson 267 314 0.28 0.52 1.17 Waterford 2,565 3,018 2.69 5.27 6.51 Hickman 394 464 0.41 0.93 1.55 Portions of Turlock 300 353 0.32 0.63 0.82 Outlying Service Areas Subtotal 5,144 6,052 5.40 10.57 17.49 Total 98,647 116,055 103.60 182.42 259.06 Assuming 15 percent unaccounted for water. Maximum Day and Peak Hour peaking factors for the different outlying service areas are unique and are discussed in Appendices F through J of the "City of Modesto's 2008 Water System Engineer's Report". Table 13. Projected Customer Water Demands and Required Water Production at Buildout (2038) West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceb2AppBTables Last Revised: 10/7/09 City of Modesto Engineer's Report Appendix B Demand Evaluation TM ---PAGE BREAK--- Technical Memorandum October 6, 2009 Page 18 West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB1AppB — Maximum Day demand = 1.75 times Average Day demand (8-year average) — Peak Hour demand = 2.46 times Average Day demand Unaccounted for water is estimated to be about 15 percent system-wide. This estimate was validated by the available water production and consumption data. Assuming the estimated 2005 population of about 264,209 within the City’s entire service area (2005 UWMP), the overall use (production minus unaccounted for water losses) in 2005 equated to approximately 227 gallons per capita per day. For future projections of water demands, it is assumed that the projected water demands will equal production. Projected water demands incorporate a 10 percent reduction in residential water use due to anticipated savings from the City’s program to meter all residential customers. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS To more closely monitor water use and unaccounted for water within the water system, the City should continue to install and read meters on all customer water service connections and at key locations throughout the service area. Such meters would provide an opportunity to: Accurately assess unaccounted for water; Evaluate the transfer of water from one portion of the City’s service area to another; Collect and evaluate actual customer use data by individual customer, by customer type, and by service area; Bill customers based on actual use; Identify and track water use by high water users; Provide incentives for water conservation and penalties for excessive water use; Measure the benefits of implemented conservation measures and other best management practices. ---PAGE BREAK--- MAZE BLV CLARIBEL RD TULLY RD E HATCH RD ALBERS RD PATTERSON RD PARADISE RD MILNES RD COFFEE RD SHOEMAKE AVE LADD RD GATES RD DUNN RD GEER RD N HART RD BACON RD BLUE GUM AVE ROSELLE AVE KANSAS AVE LANGWORTH RD KIERNAN AVE BENTLEY RD FINNEY RD STONE AVE CHURCH ST WOODLAND AVE TOOMES RD NORTH AVE S HART RD RICE RD DALE RD BENT RD COVERT RD PARKER RD CRANE RD MORRILL RD PAULINE AVE SHILOH RD YOUNG RD DUSTY LN KAUFMAN RD BAKER RD GRIMES AVE LEEDOM RD STODDARD RD LITT RD CARVER RD OHIO AVE DEWITT RD ROOT RD AMERICAN AVE ADAIR RD FRAZINE RD IOWA AVE CLINTON RD TEXAS AVE BANCROFT RD HALL RD ACCESS KEMPER RD GILBERT RD MC GEE AVE WEYER RD BALDWIN RD POLAND RD ALDRICH RD RICE RD DUSTY LN CARVER RD O\C\418\020722\GIS\Figures\Water System Demand TM\Figure1.mxd FIGURE 1 LAND USES WITHIN THE CONTIGUOUS SERVICE AREA City of Modesto LEGEND: 0 5,300 10,600 2,650 Scale in Feet City Limits Sphere of Influence Contiguous Service Area General Plan Boundary Street Contiguous Water Service Area Land Use R VR RPD C RC I MU BP OS SCP North Ceres ---PAGE BREAK--- West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB2AppB Last Revised: 09/11/08 City of Modesto Engineer's Report Appendix B Demand Evaluation TM Figure 2. Water Production (January 2005 - December 2009) (Includes the contiguous and outlying service areas) 0 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 4,000,000,000 4,500,000,000 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Month/Year Water Production (gallons) 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 60.0 75.0 90.0 105.0 120.0 135.0 Annual Average Day Water Production (mgd) Surface Water Groundwater Annual Average Day Production Notes: - September through December 2009 data was estimated using the average of the past three years. 2005: 70.6 mgd 2006: 70.3 mgd 2007: 70.9 mgd 2008: 69.0 mgd 2009: 65.4 mgd ---PAGE BREAK--- West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB2AppB Last Revised: 09/11/08 City of Modesto Engineer's Report Appendix B Demand Evaluation TM Figure 3. Hourly Water Production for July 25, 2006 (Includes the contiguous and outlying service areas) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Time Hourly Water Production (gallons per minute) Surface Water Groundwater City Tanks Notes: - Data provided by City staff (peakdatajul25_2006.xls) in November 2007. Peak Hour: 8:00 to 9:00 pm 120,173 gpm 7.2 million gallons 173.0 mgd ---PAGE BREAK--- West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB2AppB Last Revised: 09/11/08 City of Modesto Engineer's Report Appendix B Demand Evaluation TM Figure 4. Metered Customer Water Use (January 2003 - December 2006) (Includes the contiguous and outlying service areas) 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Month/Year Metered Customer Water Use (cubic feet) 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Annual Average Day Customer Metered Water Use (mgd) Metered Water Use Annual Average Day Metered Water Use Notes: - Data provided by City staff (MODE Consumption Data Extract 03-07.xls) in November 2007. - Does not include data for Meter No. PRE1296301 which accounts for a portion of the transfer of water from the City of Modesto to Salida. 2003: 25.5 mgd 2004: 25.5 mgd 2005: 23.5 mgd 2006: 22.7 mgd ---PAGE BREAK--- West Yost Associates o:\c\418\02-07-22\wp\er\20091031ceB2AppB Last Revised: 09/11/08 City of Modesto Engineer's Report Appendix B Demand Evaluation TM Figure 5. Annual Production, Customer Use (Metered and Unmetered), and Unaccounted for Water (2003 - 2006) (Includes the contiguous and outlying service areas) 41,804 40,968 40,864 28,615 28,554 26,359 25,450 12,427 12,269 11,863 11,813 41,492 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Annual Production, Customer Use and Unaccounted for Water (acre-feet) Unmetered Consumption Metered Consumption Unaccounted for Water (assumed to be 15 percent) Notes: - Does not include data for Meter No. PRE1296301 which accounts for a portion of the transfer of water from the City of Modesto to Salida. Total Production in 2006: 78,755 acre-feet Total Production in 2005: 79,086 acre-feet Total Production in 2004: 81,791 acre-feet Total Production in 2003: 82,846 acre-feet ---PAGE BREAK--- ATTACHMENT A General Plan Land Use Acreages and Area Designations ---PAGE BREAK--- ---PAGE BREAK--- Table 3: General Plan PUA Land Use Acreages Incorporating Planned GPA's and Existing Development Name of Comprehensive Planning District (CPD) within the Sphere of Influence Adjusted to recognize approved General Plan Amendments and updated GIS acreage CPD Acreage where a General Plan Amendment is Pending Additional CPD areas already developed Regional Commercial (RC) Residential Village Residential (VR) Business Park (BP) Open Space (OS) Mixed Use (MU) Notes Coffee/Claratina 25 0 0 25.3 Coffee/Claratina 144 0 144 Reflects build-out of Coffee/Claratina SP College West 235 0 0 235.0 Dry Creek 497 0 0 497.0 Empire North CPD Total 213 0 0 Empire North (North of Dry Creek) 52 0 52 Reflects build-out of Empire North SP Empire North (South of Dry Creek) 161 0 0 161.1 Fairview 379 0 82 297.6 Reflects approved Galas Brother Subdivision Hetch Hetchy 823 0 0 823.0 Hetch Hetchy 122 0 0 121.9 Highway 132 658 0 0 657.9 Johansen 600 0 0 600.1 Kiernan/Carver CPD Total 1,382 0 0 Kiernan/Carver 726 0 160 566.1 Reflects build-out Carver-Bangs Specific Plan Kiernan/Carver 339 0 0 338.6 Kiernan/Carver 75 0 0 75.4 Kiernan/McHenry 370 0 0 370.2 Kiernan/McHenry 99 0 0 99.3 North Beyer 17 0 0 26.0 0.0 North Beyer 17 0 0 16.6 North Beyer 148 0 148 Reflects Build out of North Beyer Specific Plan Paradise/Carpenter * 803 0 233 570.0 Reflects Build out in County areas Pelandale/McHenry 50 32 20 40.0 22.0 Proposed GPA increases R & OS acreages Pelandale/McHenry 37 -32 5 0.0 Proposed GPA reduces commercial area Pelandale/Snyder CPD Total 395 0 0 Pelandale/Snyder 332 0 332 Reflects build-out of Pelandale/Snyder SP Pelandale/Snyder 62 0 62 0.0 Reflects build-out of Pelandale/Snyder SP Roselle/Claribel 259 0 0 259.5 Roselle/Claribel 1,357 -67 0 67.0 1,290.2 Proposed GPA for new RC site Tuolumne River 1,535 0 0 1,534.9 Village One CPD Total 1,885 0 -1,885 Village One 1,578 0 1,376 202.8 Reflects built-out of V-1 Specific Plan Village One 307 0 0 306.9 Whitmore/Carpenter 720 0 176 543.8 Reduced VR due to land fill and flood plain 10,497 Subtotal 388.9 40.0 5,080.7 2,168.1 2,053.9 16.6 Total Vacant areas within Modesto SOI/PUA: 9,748.28 Vacant Acreages by Land Use Designation Source: Table 3, Estimated Sewer Flow Projections Memo, City of Modesto, July 27, 2006. ---PAGE BREAK--- ---PAGE BREAK--- o:/c/418/02-07-22/wp/demand tm/service areas West Yost Associates ---PAGE BREAK--- ---PAGE BREAK--- ATTACHMENT B Outlying Service Area Boundaries ---PAGE BREAK--- ---PAGE BREAK--- o:/c/418/02-07-22/wp/demand tm/service areas West Yost Associates Del Rio Service Area ---PAGE BREAK--- o:/c/418/02-07-22/wp/demand tm/service areas West Yost Associates Ceres (Walnut Manor) Service Area ---PAGE BREAK--- o:/c/418/02-07-22/wp/demand tm/service areas West Yost Associates Waterford Service Area ---PAGE BREAK--- o:/c/418/02-07-22/wp/demand tm/service areas West Yost Associates Grayson Service Area ---PAGE BREAK--- o:/c/418/02-07-22/wp/demand tm/service areas West Yost Associates Hickman Service Area ---PAGE BREAK--- o:/c/418/02-07-22/wp/demand tm/service areas West Yost Associates Turlock Service Area