Document Minden_doc_99e998c263

[Year] ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE PREPARED FOR: AUGUST 2021 Prepared By: & Tom Harris, Ph.D. Financial Advisory Gaming & Hospitality Public Policy Research Real Estate Advisory Regional & Urban Economics 7219 West Sahara Avenue Suite 110-A Las Vegas, NV 89117 Main [PHONE REDACTED] www.rcgecon.com ---PAGE BREAK--- August 10, 2021 Ms. Lisa Granahan Economic Vitality Manager Douglas County 1594 Esmeralda Avenue Minden, NV 89423 Re: Economic Market Analysis & Marketing Strategy for the Downtowns of Minden & Gardnerville, Nevada (“the Study”) Dear Ms. Granahan: RCG Economics LLC and Dr. Tom Harris. Director of the University Center for Economic Development of University of Nevada-Reno (“the Consultant Team”), were requested by Douglas County (“the Client”) to provide certain economic, demographic and real estate advisory services related to the Study. The goal of the of the Study was to develop a retail market analysis and marketing strategy for the downtown areas of the Towns of Minden and Gardnerville, Nevada. This report incorporates data and information on the state of the current and future retail market demand in the two downtown areas. Our research also included recommendations for creating a retail marketing strategy that can be implemented cooperatively by the Towns of Minden and Gardnerville, the Carson Valley Chamber of Commerce, Main Street Gardnerville, as well as interested property owners and real estate brokers, in cooperation with the County. Part of the Consultant Team’s research in the attached report also includes an analysis of likely market demand for prospective “complementary retail uses” between Gardnerville and Minden. RCG would like to thank all those the assisted with this, especially Ms. Lisa Granahan, Economic Vitality Manager of Douglas County, and the volunteer members of the Project Team for their assistance and guidance in the preparation of this very important study. Although kept confidential in order to obtain frank information, we would also like to thank the various members of the Minden-Gardnerville business community for their feedback and thoughts. RCG hopes that the Study accomplished the objectives stated herein. Independence We do not warrant the results or outcomes of our research on engagements, and our fees are not contingent on the findings. As such, the Consultant Team is an independent advisory group. Standard Assumptions This work scope was performed according to the “Standard Assumptions & Limiting Conditions” detailed in the Attachment. ---PAGE BREAK--- Lisa Granahan August 10, 2021 Page 2 If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us at your convenience by phone at 702- 967-3188 ext. 101 or by email at [EMAIL REDACTED]. Regards, RCG Economics LLC Attachments ---PAGE BREAK--- Lisa Granahan August 10, 2021 Page 3 Attachment Standard Assumptions & Limiting Conditions 1. The Consultant Team prepared the Study from third-party information collected and analyzed by the Consultant Team, as well as our internal economic, real estate and demographic models, databases and related information. 2. The County is responsible for representations about its plans and expectations and for disclosure of significant information that might affect the ultimate realization of the analyses results. 3. The results of the Consultant Team’s analyses apply only to the effective date of our Study. The success of the County’s plans and strategies will be affected by many related and unrelated economic conditions within a local, regional, national and/or world context. We assume no liability for an unforeseen change in the local, regional or national economies. Accordingly, we have no responsibility to update our report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of our Study. 4. Our Study will be based on historical economic, demographic, real estate market and economic development benchmark information. Thus, variations in the future could be material and have an impact on our report conclusions. Even if our Study’s hypothetical assumptions were to occur, there will usually be differences between the estimated and actual results, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and those differences may be material. These could include major changes in economic and market conditions; and/or terms or availability of financing altogether; and/or major revisions in current state and/or federal tax or regulatory laws. 5. If the Study is reproduced by the County, it must be reproduced in its entirety. 6. The Consultant Team will make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the third-party information contained in our report and shall have no liability for any representations (expressed or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from, our materials. 7. The working papers for this engagement will be retained in the Consultant Team’s files and will be made available for the Client’s reference. We will be available to support the analyses, as required. 8. Unless otherwise stated in our report and slideshow, no effort will be made to determine the possible effect, if any, of future Federal, State or local legislation, including any environmental or ecological matters or interpretations thereof. 9. We will not perform an audit, review or examination or any other attest function (as defined by the AICPA) regarding any of the third-party historical data and information used or included in the Study. Therefore, the Consultant Team will not express any opinion or any other form of assurance with regard to the same, in the context of our report. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ES. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-1 A. Analysis ES-1 B. Recommendations ES-2 I. INTRODUCTION I-1 II. SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS & TRENDS II-1 III. MARKET STUDY III-1 A. Determination of Market Area III-1 B. Area Socio-Economics III-3 C. Spending Potential & Leakage III-8 D. Economic Benefits from Tourism III-11 E. Existing Business Inventory III-13 IV. FINDINGS IV-1 A. Regional IV-2 B. Regional Weaknesses IV-4 C. Recommendations IV-7 A. APPENDIX A-1 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE ii LIST OF TABLES Page Table III-1: PMA Retail Gap Analysis: 2017 III-14 Table III-2: Complementary Retailers Related to PMA Retail Gap Groups: 2017 III-15 Table III-3: SMA Retail Gap Analysis: 2017 III-16 Table III-4: Minden-Gardnerville Tourism Benefits: 2019 III-17 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021 III-17 Table III-6: Job Destinations for Minden-Gardnerville Residents: 2018 III-39 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure ES-1: PMA Industry Groups with Gaps of $1,000,000+ Complementing Downtown Minden-Gardnerville, 2017 ES-3 Figure ES-2: SMA Industry Groups with Gaps of $1,000,000+ Complementing Downtown Minden-Gardnerville, 2017 ES-4 Figure III-1: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville: 2021 III-26 Figure III-2: Primary Market Area: 2021 III-26 Figure III-3: Secondary Market Area (Light Green): 2021 III-227 Figure III-4: PMA Demographics: 2010 – 2025 III-28 Figure III-5: SMA Demographics: 2010 – 2025 III-28 Figure III-6: PMA Age Distribution: 2010 – 2025 III-29 Figure III-7: SMA Age Distribution: 2010 – 2025 III-29 Figure III-8: PMA Racial & Ethnic Distribution: 2010 – 2025 III-30 Figure III-9: SMA Racial & Ethnic Distribution: 2010 – 2025 III-30 Figure III-10: PMA Household Income Distribution: 2020 – 2025 III-31 Figure III-11: SMA Household Income Distribution: 2020 – 2025 III-31 Figure III-12: PMA Educational Attainment: 2020 III-32 Figure III-13: SMA Educational Attainment: 2020 III-32 Figure III-14: PMA Housing Units, by Type: 2019 III-33 Figure III-15: SMA Housing Units, by Type: 2019 III-33 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE iii Page Figure III-16: PMA Housing Units, by Year Built: 2019 III-34 Figure III-17: SMA Housing Units, by Year Built: 2019 III-34 Figure III-18: PMA Housing Units, by Occupancy Type: 2000 – 2026 III-35 Figure III-19: SMA Housing Units, by Occupancy Type: 2000 – 2026 III-35 Figure III-20: PMA Tapestry Groups: 2021 III-36 Figure III-21: SMA Tapestry Groups: 2021 III-36 Figure III-22: Employment in/to/from Minden and Gardnerville: 2018 III-37 Figure III-23: Employment Commuting Patterns for Douglas County: 2018 III-38 Figure III-24: PMA Industry Groups with Gaps of $1,000,000 or More that Complement Downtown Minden-Gardnerville, 2018 III-40 Figure III-25: PMA Industry Groups with Gaps of $1,000,000 or More that Complement Downtown Minden-Gardnerville, 2018 III-40 Figure III-26: Downtown Minden-Gardnerville Business Locations: 2021 III-41 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE ES-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CG Economics LLC and Dr. Tom Harris of the University of Nevada, Reno (“the Consultant Team” or “the Team”) were retained by Douglas County (“the Client” or “the County” or “DC”) to provide certain economic advisory services (“the Study”). The purpose of the Study was to develop a retail market analysis and marketing strategy for Downtown Minden and Gardnerville, Nevada The Study incorporated data and information on the state of the current and future retail market demand in the two downtown areas. The Study is comprised of three main analyses: • Situational Analysis & Trends • Market Study • Findings A. ANALYSIS DESCRIPTIONS The Situational Analysis & Trends section examined local, state and national data and studies regarding trends in retail trade, previous retail studies in rural economies, previous studies in Douglas County, factors impacting town revitalization and Nevada’s post-pandemic economic plan, in addition to other related subjects. This included case studies, media accounts, journal papers, etc. as well as a review of Census Bureau data. The Consultant Team performed a Market Study of two “Study Regions” defined herein to gain an understanding of the challenges faced by DMG in their attempts to expand their retail base. The market analysis included demographic information and information on spending potential and leakage in the two Study Regions. Additionally, the Team provided an inventory of existing businesses in DMG. The PMA largely captures persons within 30-minute driving-distance of Downtown Minden & Gardnerville & are not closer to another retail cluster. SMA includes that PMA & captures 50-70 percent of customers: • Persons in the PMA & shoppers from outside the PMA who travel/commute up 1.5 hours to/from Downtown Minden Gardnerville & could choose to make more purchases in area. • Consumers outside the PMA that make only some purchases in Downtown Minden Gardnerville. R ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE ES-2 • The SMA includes those likely making most purchases in Downtown Minden Gardnerville but do so less due to distance from region (rural residents living far from any sizable communities). The Findings combined what the Team learned from the previous two analyses with the discoveries from a series of interviews with regional stakeholders. The Consultant Team made a series of high-level recommendations based on these findings as well as several “micro-strategies” to help the Client implement the recommended changes. Our major Findings and Recommendations are detailed in Section B below. B. MAJOR RECOMMENDATIONS Based on the Consultant Team’s expertise in economic development, regional economic analysis and data science as well as the literature review and stakeholder interviews (“the Interviews”), we have developed a set of high-level recommendations and tactics that should allow for enhanced economic growth in the Carson Valley as well as Downtown Minden and Gardnerville. • Revisit restrictive regulatory policies o Streamline permitting for small retail and service businesses where possible • Study and address high-fixed costs associated with new development permitting to make sure they are line with the cost structure of neighboring communities • Improve messaging and advertising relative to outdoor activities and amenities • Incentivize development of deluxe non-gaming accommodations in Study Area • Allow for mixed-use (commercial/residential) zoning in Downtown Minden and Downtown Gardnerville • Improve community outreach to promote conservation easements • Protect historical buildings • Improve road quality and walkability o Complete Muller Parkway to remove non-truck through-traffic from the Downtown Area o Look for opportunities in the future to narrow US Hwy 395 in the Downtown Area, and identify alternatives for truck traffic ▪ Use new space for parking, and/or ▪ Widen sidewalks and offer patio space to new and existing property owners • Consider setting up a “commercial owners’ association”1 in the Downtown Area o Institute design standards in Study Area to create architectural motif matching protected historical buildings 1 These organizations are like homeowners’ associations but apply to commercial property owners. They can provide a market- based mechanism for funding and enforcing desirable attributes in a commercial zone, as opposed to government-funded solutions like redevelopment districts or tax-increment financing districts. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE ES-3 o Add conspicuous, aesthetically-pleasing signage for areas and sites of interest, including Downtown Minden and Downtown Gardnerville The remaining sections of the report detail the Consultant Team’s research, analyses and findings. In addition to the Findings and Recommendations above, the Consultant Team identified several retail opportunities for the PMA and SMA. They are shown in the following two figures: Figure ES-1: PMA Industry Groups with Gaps of $1,000,000+ Complementing Downtown Minden-Gardnerville, 2017 Source: ESRI, The Consultant Group. 2017 is the latest estimate. Top 3 Gaps: Clothing Stores: $18.7 M Health & Personal Care: $18.2 M Misc. Store Retailers: $13.5 M ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE ES-4 Figure ES-2 SMA Industry Groups with Gaps of $1,000,000+ Complementing Downtown Minden-Gardnerville, 2017 Source: ESRI, The Consultant Group. 2017 is the latest estimate. $54.9 $17.3 $17.4 $15.0 $7.0 $6.4 $2.7 $0 $20 $40 $60 Health & Personal Care Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages Misc. Store Retailers art supply stores, candle shops, collector items) Specialty Food Stores Shoe Stores Florists Millions Top 3 Gaps: Health & Personal Care: $54.9 M Drinking Places: $17.4 M Furniture: $17.3 M ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE I-1 I. INTRODUCTION CG Economics LLC and Dr. Tom Harris of the University of Nevada, Reno (“the Consultant Team” or “the Team”) were retained by Douglas County (“the Client” or “the County” or “DC”) to provide certain economic advisory services (“the Study”). The purpose of the Study was to develop a retail market analysis and marketing strategy for DMG. The Study incorporated data and information on the state of the current and future retail market demand in the two downtown areas. Funding for the Study was made possible through a competitive USDA Rural Development, Rural Business Development Grant to the County perform work. A prior grant from USDA Rural Development funded the 2010 Market Analysis for the Main Street Gardnerville District. The Study is comprised of three main analyses: • Situational Analysis & Trends • Market Study • Findings The Situational Analysis & Trends section examined local, state and national data and studies regarding trends in retail trade, previous retail studies in rural economies, previous studies in Douglas County, factors impacting town revitalization and Nevada’s post-pandemic economic plan, in addition to other related subjects. This included case studies, media accounts, journal papers, etc. as well as a review of Census Bureau data. The Consultant Team performed a Market Study of two “Study Regions” defined herein to gain an understanding of the challenges faced by DMG in their attempts to expand their retail base. The market analysis included demographic information and information on spending potential and leakage in the two Study Regions. Additionally, the Team provided an inventory of existing businesses in DMG. The Findings combined what the Team learned from the previous two analyses with the discoveries from a series of interviews with regional stakeholders. The Consultant Team made a series of high-level recommendations based on these findings as well as several “micro-strategies” to help the Client implement the recommended changes. R ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE II-1 II. SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS & TRENDS he Consultant Team reviewed past literature to better understand the situation in which the Study Area finds itself. The National Council for Economic Development made a prescient comment that aptly describes the current situation in the Study Area: “Where shopping flourishes so do the communities that foster it. Where it fades, so do the economic prospects of communities that lose it.” The Study Area has a lot going for it. However, it needs to be flexible in order be able to continue to build upon its prosperity. Retail Sector Employment in the Nation, State of Nevada, Douglas County and Minden- Gardnerville The Consultant Team analyzed information from the EMSI Industry Table1 for basic employment patterns. Nationally, the retail sector employed 9.8 percent of total employment in 2020, which approximately represents 1 of 10 Americans in the workforce. In the state of Nevada, the retail sector employed 10.1 percent of Nevada’s total employment in 2020. In Douglas County, the retail sector employed 10.9 percent of 2020 total county employment. In Minden-Gardnerville, the retail sector employed 7.8 percent of 2020 total employment in the Minden-Gardnerville Area. Trends in Retail Trade & Possible Effects of the Pandemic From 1980 to the present, there have been rapid changes in the national retail sector. Growth has occurred in retail sector segments such as discount stores, membership warehouses, “category killer” stores, factory outlet malls, specialty mail order and internet stores. However, recent technology changes in the retail industry have favored retail chains that can exploit information technologies, modern logistics and preferential treatment by suppliers. The increased emphasis on chain stores versus stand-alone retail stores would further disadvantage rural retail entrepreneurs. The share of US retail activity accounted by a single store has fallen from 70 percent in 1948 to 39 percent in 19972. 1 EMSI, Inc., (2021). “Industry Table: Jobs and Growth”, Moscow, Idaho. 2 Jarmin, S. Klimek, and J. Miranda. (2009). “The Role of Retail Chains: National. Regional, and Industry Results.” Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data. University of Chicago Press. T ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE II-2 More recently, US retail has begun to enter a new paradigm: eCommerce. This can be notably seen through the rise of Amazon. In 2000, Amazon was not on in the Fortune 500. By 2010, it had risen to 100. In 2020, Amazon had climbed up to second,3 behind only rival Walmart, which has also shifted much of its business online.4 This shift to online retail has only been exacerbated by the pandemic.5 Some research suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic will impact retail trade in five ways:6 1. There was a 50 percent increase in online retail sales during the pandemic. This trend will continue given that online shopping has become a regular routine for many consumers. 2. Curbside service will remain. Many stores have already adopted buy online and pick up in-store. Curbside represents the next step. During the pandemic curbside orders increased by 208 percent and 59 percent of customers say that they would like to continue curbside pickup after the pandemic. 3. More empathetic marketing occurred during the pandemic and is expected to continue. Retailers will focus on developing relationships with their customers and not just pushing products. 4. There will be increased automation after the pandemic. Many retailers started automating their supply chains to limit human exposure during the pandemic. It is more efficient for robots to fulfill orders than a human employee who has to social distance. Big retailers like Amazon and Walmart are using more robots to track and clean inventory and are planning on starting deliveries by drones. 5. After the pandemic, retailers will have balanced inventory. Before the pandemic, retailers would often stock seasonal inventories before customers used them. However, with pandemic closures, many retailers had a backlog of inventories. The short-term challenge for retailers will be to balance inventories and get rid of the backlog. For customers, this means more in-season items and shorter buying windows. Previous Retail Studies in Rural Economies There are two key concepts in investigating rural retail trade: • The range or maximum distance consumers would be willing to travel to purchase a retail item 3 Fortune 500. Fortune, Retrieved June 3, 2021. 4 Molly Burke. Walmart’s Rise as an Ecommerce Giant. JungleScout, April 14, 2021. 5 Ibrahiim Bayaan, Christina Tong and Neil Blake, Ph.D. Pandemic accelerates e-commerce adoption Implications for Industrial and Retail. CBRE, February 2021. insights/articles/pandemic-accelerates-e-commerce-adoption---implications-for-industrial-and-retail 6 Morgan, B. (2020).” 5 Examples of What Post-COVID Retail will Look Like”, Forbes online, Retrieved from ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE II-3 • The threshold level or the minimum demand for a retail good to make it economical for a firm to supply it. A somewhat simpler measure of a region’s trade area is a quantity known as a “pull factor”. Pull factors derive from the ratio of local retail sales to local population. A ratio greater than one implies sales greater than expected while those less than one suggests local retail sales are leaking to other jurisdictions. Pull factor analyses were performed by many Cooperative Extension faculty to assist rural economies examine retail strengthens and weaknesses.7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 Beyond population and per capita income, factors that are positively related to the size of the retail pull factor are increasing distance from a metropolitan area or regional trade center, the share of area’s population over 65 years of age and the number of stores in the area. Lower pull factors are associated with declining population, higher unemployment rates and dependence on the agricultural sector. The University Center for Economic Development completed two commercial sector studies for Douglas County, Nevada15, 16 with another study made into an academic article.17 Pull factors were employed to determine retail sales capture or leakages in Douglas County. The study found that Douglas County had a pull factor of 0.6267 for grocery stores. This would suggest that Douglas County was losing grocery retail sales to a neighboring county. However, pull factors do not inform which factors contribute to the loss in retail sales, which could help local decision-makers formulate economic development strategies to reduce retail grocery store sales leakages. The same paper18 employed statistical procedures to investigate what factors were contributing to Douglas 7 Chase, and G. Pulver. (1983). “The Impact of Shopping Centers on Downtowns of Small Non-Metropolitan Communities.” Journal of Community Development Society, 14:51-66. 8 Hustedde, G. Pulver, and R. Shaffer. (1984). Community Economic Analysis: A How to Book. North Central Regional Center for Rural Development: Ames, Iowa. 9 Yanagida, B. Johnson, J. Young, and M. Lunden. (1991). “An Analysis of Economic and Noneconomic Factors Affecting Retail Sales Leakages”, The Review of Regional Studies, 21(1): 53-64. 10 Gruidl, J. and D. Andrianacos. (1994). “Determinants of Rural Retail Trade: A Case Study in Illinois”. The Review of Regional Studies, 24(1): 03-18. 11 Darling, D. and S. Tubene. (1996). “Determining the Population Thresholds of Minor Trade Centers: A Benchmark Study of Non-Metropolitan Cities in Kansas”. Review of Agricultural Economics. 18(10: 95-101. 12 Harris, T. (2008). “Estimating Market Potential Using Published Data: A Trade Area Analysis Example”. Western Extension Marketing Committee, western Center for Risk Management: Pullman, Washington. 13 Myers, A. (2003). Understanding Your Trade Area: Implications for Retail Trade. Mississippi State University Extension Service: Starkville, Mississippi, Publication 2321. 14 Deller, S. (2020). A Trade Area Analysis of Wisconsin Retail and Service Markets: Updated for 2019. University of Wisconsin Extension, Madison, Wisconsin. 15 Harris, J. Dobra, and S. Males. (1990). Analysis of Douglas County Shopping Patterns/Businesses. Western Nevada Development District Report, 1990. 16 Harris, R. Mead, W. Moore, K. Halbardier, and D. Bartholet. (1999). Douglas County Commercial Sector Leakage Study, UCED 98/99-05. 17 Harris, and J. Shonkwiler. (1994). “Application of Maximum Likelihood to a Bivariate Two-Limit Tobit Model for Estimation of Rural Retail Sales Potential.” The Review of Regional Studies, 24(2): 143-160. 18 Ibid. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE II-4 County’s loss of retail trade to neighboring counties. The study found that if a person lived and worked in Douglas County, expected grocery store sales would increase by 11.7 percent. Even more dramatic, if a worker lived and worked in Douglas County, local general merchandise expenditures increased by 22.3 percent. Additionally, if the spouse worked locally, expected grocery store sales would increase by 10.23 percent. The results of the statistical model agree that factors affecting the retail pull factor are increasing distance from a metropolitan area or regional trade center, the proportion of an area’s population over 65 years of age and the number of stores in the area. Given the out-commuting of the Douglas County populace to Reno and Carson City, one can see the impacts of these larger metropolitan areas and their larger commercial sectors, which are strategically aligned along commuter traffic flows. Douglas County does have a larger population share that are 65 years and older, but this population cohort cannot overcome the influences of the Reno-Sparks and Carson City MSAs and their variety and concentration of retail shopping establishments. Past Studies in Douglas County Numerous planning studies have been completed in Douglas County. It is important to review past studies to determine what goals the county has had in the past and to determine whether the county has followed through on past recommendations. On December 9, 2020, the Douglas County Commission19 approved an update of the county’s Master Plan. The update was initiated in 2016 and provided information as to current conditions in Douglas County as well as recommendations for goals, policies and actions to be addressed by the county. The master plan made many recommendations, most of which involved further studies. However, it did make a few recommendations pertinent to this Study. These include: • Land Use & Historic Preservation (Action Support efforts to secure State, Federal or other funding directed toward revitalizing historic areas or maintaining historic buildings and sites. • Agriculture and Conservation (Action The County should establish an open space acquisition program. • Economic Development (Action 10): Seek funding to improve upon bicycle, pedestrian and equestrian infrastructure that supports economic development. 19 Douglas County Commission. (2020). Douglas County 2020 Master Plan: A Community to Match the Scenery. Woods Rogers Inc.: Reno, Nevada. /2020%20Master%20Plan%20Text%20Update/Bocc%20approved/2020-12- 09%20Board%20of%20County%20Commissioners%20-%20Draft%20Working%20Plan.pdf ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE II-5 • Economic Development (Action 15): Evaluate and update land use regulations to foster a positive atmosphere and attract appropriate types of business to the community. Promote the types of uses that provide middle-income jobs and promote entrepreneurship. • Growth Management & Housing (Action Douglas County will revise the Master Plan land use designations to permit multi-family zoning within the Commercial Land Use designation. • Public Facilities, Services & Recreation (Action Define desired service levels and establish clear expectations for service providers to ensure efficient and cost-effective delivery of services. Numerous additional studies in Douglas County and the Minden-Gardnerville area have been completed to evaluate economic development alternative. In 2008, the town of Genoa updated a community plan to assist in local economic development that would complement the community’s history, unique amenities, minimize natural hazards and minimize impacts of traffic.20 In 2010, Douglas County initiated their Douglas County Economic Vitality Plan, which was updated in 2017.21 The Economic Vitality Plan looks to develop a partnership among business, government and nonprofit sector to bring economic development to the county. Also, in 2010 USDA Rural Development assisted Main Street Gardnerville (MSG) with a market analysis to determine a suitable trade area and to create a short list of possible business sectors that could have an above average chance of success in the market. Since then, MSG has added 87 additional businesses to the District (as of December 2020). The Minden and Gardnerville Plan for Prosperity22 was a joint effort of the communities of Minden and Gardnerville to update the Plan for Prosperity for Minden23 and Gardnerville.24 The plan focused on making the area a regional destination with successful main street districts. This would be accomplished by the completion of the Muller Parkway and redesign of the Main Street and historic Railroad Avenue portions of Highway 395 into pedestrian-oriented experiences. 20 Town of Genoa. (2017). Genoa Community Plan Update. Genoa, Nevada. 21 Douglas County Commissioners. (2017). “Douglas County Nevada Economic Vitality Plan Update”. %20Vitality/Economic%20Vitality%20Program/DC%20Economic%20Vitality%20Overview%202017%20Update%20II.pdf 22 Bruce Race, Andy Plescia, Noré Winter, and Julie Husband. (2018). Minden and Gardnerville Plan for Prosperity. Gardnerville2018PlanforProsperity.pdf 23 Town of Minden. (2002). Town of Minden: One Man’s Vision-A Town’s Commitment. 24 Gardnerville Citizens’ Advisory Council (2006). Gardnerville Plan for Prosperity. cdn.prontomarketing.com/382/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/01/Gardnerville-Plan-for-Prosperity.pdf ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE II-6 Another study done on the region was the Douglas County Valley Vision.25 This report found that the county should work to increase ecotourism, allow for new employment opportunities, leverage its historical and cultural roots and improve walkability. Factors to Consider in the Revitalization of Towns In addition to the studies discussed above. A few case studies have examined the factors that drove the successes and failures of other small towns looking to revitalize their economies. One of these case studies broke down towns by their types, such as “Small towns that are recreation or retirement destinations or adjacent to natural assets,” which appears to describe the Study Area well.26 One finding was that community development led to economic development. The report also found that long-term planning was key to the revitalization of many small towns. The most successful towns were those that transformed themselves. This shows that there are no quick fixes. They also found that this required a team effort and inclusionary practices—the community had to buy in to the idea and embrace newcomers and youth that helped drive change. The case study also found that small towns must make their policies business friendly. Developing any assets was found to be important. However, this also included the “small” attribute of the town. In Oakland, MD, this meant embracing the change that came with a Walmart moving into town. In that case, local leaders worked directly with “Main Street” retailers to help them diversify their product lines. The report also found that embracing environmentally-friendly industries appear to help drive revitalization. In essence, the report determined that small towns should embrace every opportunity available to become successful in revitalization efforts. Another set of case studies was the Vibrant Rural Communities Case Studies Series27 by the National Association of Development Organizations (“NADO”). NADO performed a series of nine case studies on various small towns and cities to develop insights into what factors drove their growth. In Las Vegas, New Mexico, they found that state and federal funding to protect and rehabilitate historical buildings was able to kick off the development needed that brought private investment to the region. In Greenville, Kentucky, they found that a proactive city government and involved community were able to come together to leverage their town’s assets and drive tourism. They then used innovative financing methods to drive private investment. Another town, Potosi, Wisconsin, was able to rally the community in order to reopen a long-closed brewery, which revitalized the small town of 900 residents. These case studies also show that small communities need to use every opportunity 25 Douglas County Valley Vision: Douglas County Valley Vision. DesignWorkshop, September 2013. 26 Will Lambe. Small Towns, Big Ideas: Case Studies in Small Town Community Economic Development. Community & Economic Development Program School of Government, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, December 2008. 27 Vibrant Rural Communities Case Studies Series. NADO, December 10th, 2012. communities-case-study-series/ ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE II-7 available to achieve their economic goals. A third case study examined five towns in the US and Canada.28 This study looked at the big picture of how small towns revitalized their “main streets.” The authors boiled their findings down to two things. Towns established a set of “foundational principles” and then worked to build on those principles using various innovative strategies. The five foundational principles discussed are much the same as the findings in other case studies. First, the communities, along with their leaderships, engaged to create a long-term plan. Second, the town created a theme and developed events around it. Third, the towns highlighted their histories. Fourth, they capitalized on their natural environments to drive ecotourism and, fifth, they used entrepreneurship and small business training to drive innovation. Communities based their plans on one or more of these foundational principles and then used various innovative strategies to drive revitalization. Some of the most innovative strategies included leveraging science and technology, college scholarship and arts and culture. Regional Goals and Nevada’s Plan These case studies show that the Study Area has a head start relative to most towns. Most of the required ingredients for success already exist in the Study Area. At this point, the community simply needs to get out of its own way. Failure to achieve growth in the future would likely come from within the community. Additionally, the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development recently released Nevada’s Plan for Recovery & Resilience,29 to which the RCG Economics contributed. The “Plan” was meant to help Nevada recover from the devastating effects of the pandemic-driven recession. This was especially true for Southern Nevada, which has become overdependent on the tourism industry. One finding of the Plan was that rural Nevada was relatively well diversified, except relative to the mining industry. Nevertheless, the report found that rural Nevada is an engine of diversification in the state. The Study Area could help continue to drive economic successes in the state by pressing forward with its own goals. It could accomplish this by building on its assets: Baker Hughes, Bently Distillery, its historical buildings, its natural resources and other attributes discussed in the Study. 28 Sarah Lawson, Drew Tulchin, Liz Kukka, Craig Slater. The Rebirth of Main Street: A Case Study of Five Small Towns and Their Economic Development (Emerging Topics Paper Series Working Paper #21). Upspring, 2015. http://upspringassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/working-paper-21-Rebirth-of-Main-Street.pdf 29 Roland Stephen, J.R. Sullivan, John Restrepo, Hubert Hensen, William Brown, David Damore and Robert Lang. Nevada’s Plan for Recovery & Resilience: The Future Beyond the Pandemic. SRI International, in collaboration with RCG Economics and Brookings Mountain West, December 2020. Recovery-and-Resiliency-Plan-FINAL.pdf ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-1 III. MARKET STUDY his part of the Study is comprised of the market study. The market study looks at various qualities of “Downtown Minden-Gardnerville” (“DMG” or “the Study Area”). There are four main subsections. These are: A. Determination of the Market Area B. Area Socio-Economics C. Spending Potential & Leakage D. Economic Benefits from Tourism E. Existing Business Inventory In Section A presents a discussion of the two market areas in the Study. In Section B, the demographics of those two areas are discussed. Section C shows the results of the gap analysis within the market areas. Section D provides a list of businesses in the “downtown” areas of Minden and Gardnerville (see Figure III-1), or “Downtown Minden-Gardnerville” (“DMG” or “the Study Area”). A. Determination of Market Area There are two market areas discussed in the Study are: • Primary Market Area (“PMA”) • Secondary Market Area (“SMA”) The PMA largely captures persons within 30-minute driving-distance of Downtown Minden & Gardnerville & are not closer to another retail cluster. SMA includes that PMA & captures 50-70 percent of customers: ▪ Persons in the PMA & shoppers from outside the PMA who travel/commute up 1.5 hours to/from Downtown Minden Gardnerville & could choose to make more purchases in area. ▪ Consumers outside the PMA that make only some purchases in Downtown Minden Gardnerville. ▪ The SMA includes those likely making most purchases in Downtown Minden Gardnerville but do so less due to distance from region (rural residents living far from any sizable communities). The Consultant Team determined the borders of these areas based on discussions with the Client as well as other stakeholders in the region. This was done in back-and-forth conversations in order to arrive at the most agreeable definitions for the two areas. T ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-2 Primary Market Area The purpose of the PMA area is to capture households that are likely to make most of their purchases in the Minden-Gardnerville area and, therefore, those that are most likely to be drawn in by DMG. The area covered is seen in Figure III-2. The area is comprised of a collection of “census blocks.”1 The census blocks were chosen to include the communities that include the households most likely to meet the mentioned attributes. These communities were generally selected such that DMG was the nearest—or most convenient—community with multiple shopping options available. Aside from Minden, Gardnerville and Gardnerville Ranchos, other included communities were Genoa, Ruhenstroth, Pineview Estates, Topaz, Topaz Ranch, Mottsville, Dresslerville and Sheridan, in addition to a few other small communities. These communities are all within a 30-minute drive of DMG and most households routinely visit the Study Area for retail needs, based on our research and conversations with stakeholders. Secondary Market Area The purpose of the SMA is to capture households that do make, or could make, most of their purchases in the Minden-Gardnerville area, but may not for several reasons. This group includes various types of households. The SMA can be seen in Figure III-3. Some of these households do most of their shopping in the Minden-Gardnerville area but only on occasion due to large distances. For example, Lee Vining is about 90 miles from Gardnerville, but it is still the nearest option for most shopping needs for those residents. The SMA also includes commuters. Some individuals in the SMA work in the PMA. However, because these workers would rather shop somewhere along their commute, they end up shopping outside of the PMA. The opposite is true as well. There are individuals that live in the PMA and commute to Carson City or Reno. Many of these workers would also rather get their shopping done somewhere along their commute rather than spend time going out of their way to shop around the PMA. Another subset of households in the SMA include those that do only certain kinds of shopping in the PMA and do other kinds in the SMA. For example, a household in Carson City may do its grocery shopping near its home but may occasionally visit a restaurant in the PMA. The SMA should capture a greater share of these workers’ spending. 1 Katy Rossiter. “What are census blocks?” US Census Bureau, July 11, 2011. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-3 The SMA captures communities in both Nevada and California. The borders of the area can be generally defined by some of the included communities: south Reno (north), Kingsbury (west), Bear Valley, CA (southwest), Lee Vining, CA (southeast) and Smith Valley (east). Visitor Market Area Third, we discussed visitors below. However, the Consultant Team did not define a “visitor market area.” Visitors can come from anywhere. However, as the Study discusses below, they tend to come from certain places more than others, including the Reno-Sparks Metropolitan Statistical Area the Sacramento MSA and the Bay Area in California. Some visitors also come from other western metros and a small but statistically insignificant number come from elsewhere in the US and internationally, based on data from the Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority, assuming visitors to Lake Tahoe and the Carson Valley share a similar profile. B. Area Socio-Economics This section deals with the demographics of the PMA and SMA. These demographics are based on data relative to population, age, income, etc. There is also a discussion about visitors. Additionally, we discuss the in the regions. These are based on various “LifeMode Groups” also known as tapestry segments and defined by ESRI. According to Wikipedia, “Esri is an international supplier of geographic information system software, web GIS and geodatabase management applications.” These tapestry segments bundle people into groups to better understand the demographics of an area based on more detailed descriptions. For example, one group is generally made up of relatively affluent middle-aged or older people that live in urban environments, while another describes tech-savvy middle-class Millennials. Additionally, each LifeMode group is made up of several subgroups. The Appendix contains a brief description of each group. ESRI provides detailed discussions of every group on their website as well.2 Population/Households The population of the PMA was approximately 46,000 in 2010 (see Figure III-4). The area grew to about 50,200 persons by 2021, representing a 0.9 percent annual growth rate. By 2026, the population is expected to grow at the same annual growth to reach 52,400. The rate of growth in households was higher between 2010 and 2021. Households grew one percent per year from 2010 to 2021 increasing from approximately 19,300 to 21,300, while between 2021 and 2026 they are expected to grow 0.9 percent per year to just under 22.400. A higher rate 2 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-4 of household formation than population growth suggests that younger persons are forming new households as they move into their own homes. The population of the SMA was nearly 215,000 persons in 2010, 247,000 in 2021 (1.4 percent annual growth) and is expected to rise to about 262,100 in 2026 (1.2 percent annual growth) (see Figure III-5). These are the same growth rates for the PMA. Growth rates in the SMA indicate that the number of households in the SMA is expected to increase from 101,000 to 107,500 between 2021 and 2026. Age Distribution As expected, the PMA has a relatively high median age, meaning that the population is generally older than average. The median age in the US was 38.4 years in 2019.3 In 2021, the median age of the PMA population was 50.5 years (see Figure III-6). Furthermore, it is expected to remain almost the same at 50.6 years by 2026. The median age in the PMA, is it stays in this range, is not a positive factor regarding the supply of workers in the future. The SMA population is a bit younger (see Figure III-7). It had a median age of 44.2 years in 2021 and that is expected to remain unchanged by 2026. The PMA increases the median age of the SMA so the median age of the rest of the SMA, not including the PMA, would be lower and closer to the national average. Racial & Ethnic Distribution The ethnic distribution of both the PMA and SMA are overwhelmingly white. In 2021 white persons made up 87 percent of the population in the PMA (see Figure III-8) and 81.3 percent of the SMA (see Figure III-9). By 2026, those figures are expected to decline to 86 and 80 percent, respectively. Every other racial group makes up less than five percent of the population. Regarding ethnicity, the share of persons of Hispanic Origin, regardless of race, was 14 percent in the PMA and 18.5 percent in the SMA in 2021. That is expected to rise to nearly 16 percent in the PMA and 20 percent in the SMA by 2026. Those increases reflect national trends, but the region will continue to be overwhelmingly majority-white. 3 CB20-99. 65 and Older Population Grows Rapidly as Baby Boomers Age. United States Census Bureau, June 25, 2020. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-5 Income Distribution According to the US Census Bureau, the median household income in Nevada was $60,365 in 2019.4 According to ESRI, the PMA median household income was $68,500 in 2021 (see Figure III-10). The median income for Douglas County ins 2018 was approximately $66,800,5 This is expected to rise to nearly $75,600 in 2026. but that includes households in Lake Tahoe. The SMA had a higher median income than the PMA at $72,700 in 2021 (see Figure III- 11). It is expected to rise to $81,000 by 2026. Education Attainment In terms of educational attainment, the PMA does not fare particularly well compared to the US. Nationally, 36 percent of the 25+ year-old population had attained at least a four-year college degree.6 However, the PMA is on par with the state. In Nevada, only 25 percent of 25+ persons had attained a bachelor’s degree or higher.7 In the PMA, that figure was 31 percent (see Figure III-12). But the SMA was better at 34 percent with at least four-year degree (see Figure III-13), closer to the national figure. Housing Units Figure III-14 shows the distribution of housing units, by type of unit as of 2019. As expected, the most common type is a single-family detached unit, making up 74 percent of the total. Attached units like townhomes make up another seven percent, the second most numerous unit-type. Mobile homes are the next most common unit type at 5.4 percent. All other multifamily units combine to make up 13 percent of the PMA housing stock. The housing stock in the SMA is similar, with 69 percent of total homes being single-family detached (see Figure III-15). Mobile homes make up another six percent. The third most common type in the SMA is five-to-nine-unit buildings at five percent. Other attached units make up 25 percent of the housing stock. In general, the SMA contains double the share of attached housing in the PMA. 4 QuickFacts: Nevada. United States Census Bureau. Accessed June 25, 2020. 5 QuickFacts: Douglas County, NV. United States Census Bureau. Accessed June 25, 2020. 6 Table 2. Educational Attainment of the Population 25 Years and Over, by Selected Characteristics: 2019. United States Census Bureau. March 30, 2020. detailed-tables.html 7 QuickFacts: Nevada. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-6 Housing Unit Age In terms of the age of housing units, nearly half (47 percent) of PMA homes were built since 1990 and nearly 90 percent were built since 1970 (see Figure III-16). Only three percent of homes were built since 2010. The median year that housing was build was 1989. In the SMA, where 45 percent of homes were constructed since 1990 and 83 percent have been built since 1970 (see Figure III-17). Homes built since 2010 make up five percent of total units, about a 50 percent greater share than in the PMA. The median year that housing was build was 1987. Unit Occupation Type Data show that home ownership has been declining for several years, but that trend is expected to reverse itself (see Figure III-18). In 2000, 64 percent of homes in the PMA were owner-occupied. That declined to 59 percent by 2010. By 2021, that has declined further to 56 percent. However, that figure is expected to rise to 57 percent by 2026. The SMA experienced a similar trend, with a 56 percent rate of owner occupation in 2000 that dropped to 53 percent in 2010 and went up to 54 percent in 2021 (see Figure III-19). That number is expected to increase to 55 percent in 2026. Tapestry Segments The Consultant Team also examined the demographic makeup of the PMA and SMA based on According to Merriam-Webster.com are defined as, “Market research or statistics classifying population groups according to variables (such as attitudes, values, or fears).” This was done using the tapestry segments defined by ESRI. Detailed definitions of these segments or LifeMode groups can be found in the Appendix to this report. The PMA and SMA are both dominated by the “GenXurban” group, which makes up 42.7 percent of PMA households (see Figure III-20) and 22 percent of SMA households (see Figure III-21). As the name suggests, this group is composed largely of people that fall into Generation X (see Appendix A for definitions), who are now middle-aged to retired. Furthermore, these are households that tend to be made up of married couples and that live in single-family homes. They have also invested well over time. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-7 The PMA and SMA then diverge somewhat in their makeup. The second largest group in the PMA is “Senior Styles,” which makes up 23.5 percent of the household population. This group includes both affluent seniors and those that must still work to make ends meet. The more affluent individuals and couples tend to be of the snowbird variety and may spend only part of the year in the PMA, while other households live there full-time. Senior Styles households are also more set in their ways, showing a tendency to consume more traditional media. Together with GenXurban, these households make up about 69.5 percent of the PMA household population, giving the PMA its older character. The third largest group in the PMA is known as “Cozy Country Living” which accounts for 8.2 percent of households. The characteristics of this group are described in the Appendix to this report. The top three groups account for about 74 percent of the PMA population. The remaining groups in the PMA include Family Landscapes, Rustic Outposts, Midtown Singles, Upscale Avenues and Affluent Estates, Combined they represent 34 percent of PMA households. Their characteristics are described in the Appendix to this report. These groups cover a broad range of consumers such as: • Non-diverse, prosperous married-couple families, residing in suburban or semirural areas with a low vacancy rate (second lowest) • Country life with older families in older homes • Outdoor enthusiasts, who grow their own vegetables, love their pets and enjoy hunting and fishing • Active in fitness pursuits like bicycling, jogging, yoga, and hiking • Established wealth—educated, well-traveled married couples • Expect quality; invest in time-saving services • Participate actively in their communities The SMA is more diverse. The second largest group in the SMA is “Affluent Estates” at 14.3 percent. These tend to be wealthier, more educated couples. About 90 percent are homeowners and most are still paying off their mortgages. These couples tend to have children between grade school and college age. They enjoy travel, are involved in their communities and consume high-quality and time-saving goods. They are much of the reason the SMA has a higher median income. The third largest group in the SMA is “Middle Ground.” This group was not seen in the PMA but makes up nearly 15 percent of SMA households. This group is composed of a diverse mix of backgrounds of thirtysomethings— single/married, homeowners/renters, etc.—but the common thread is that most attended college. They are typically internet-savvy and enjoy leisure services like nights out and the outdoors. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-8 The next largest group is “Cozy Country Living,” making up 11 percent of households. This group is made up of empty-nesters living in rural single-family homes. They enjoy outdoor activities like fishing, hunting, camping and boating. This group tends to dominate in the Midwest. None of the remaining groups in the SMA make up more than 10 percent of households (see Figure III-21). Five groups ranged from 4.3 percent to 9.4 percent of SMA households and the remaining three groups ranged from .6 percent to 1.9 percent of households. Job Flow Figure III-22 from the US Census Bureau OnTheMap, shows the 2018 employment flows for the two major commercial centers in Douglas County, Minden and Gardnerville, both of which are Census designated places (“CDPs”) with well tracked populations. The populations of the corresponding Zip Codes for Minden (89423) and Gardenville (89410) plus Gardnerville Ranchos (89460) are 11,350 and 22,000, respectively, about eight times larger than the CDPs in each case, but their commuting patterns are not specifically tracked by the US Census. Figure III-23 shows clearly that Douglas County residents depend on Carson City and Reno/Sparks to the north for employment. The county has little economic activity south of Gardnerville. Unfortunately, economic development in Douglas County will likely remain concentrated in the north, not just because of the population centers already established there, and proximity to the Reno-Sparks and Carson City metropolitan areas, but also because the county’s major tourist draw, Lake Tahoe, lies in its extreme Northwest corner. C. Spending Potential & Leakage This section includes a discussion on the spending potential and leakage of the PMA and SMA for 2017, latest year for which data were available. This is done using a measure known as the “retail gap.” The retail gap provides information on which industries are underrepresented in a defined area based on revenue data associated with the businesses in that area and the population’s spending habits. The revenue data represent the area’s supply of goods while the population’s expected spending represents the demand for goods. The difference is the retail gap. Goods are represented by their 2012 NAICS8 industry groupings, which are bundles of related goods and services. Included in the list are both three-digit and four-digit NAICS codes. The four-digit NAICS industries are sub- industries within three-digit industries. For example, NAICS 722 is “Food Services and Drinking Places,” while 8 NAICS refers to the North American Industry Classification System, a system for classifying business establishments created jointly by the US, Mexico and Canada. These definitions were last updated in 2017, but the codes in this study are based on the 2012 definitions. For more information visit: ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-9 NAICS 7224 represents “Drinking Places-Alcoholic Beverages” and 7225 represents “Restaurants and Other Eating Places.” Tables III-1 and III-3 include both three- and four-digit NAICS industries. A “negative” gap in an industry means that the supply for that industry’s goods or services exceeds the demand and, therefore, there are sufficient number, or in some cases more than a sufficient number, of businesses of that type serving in the area. A “positive” retail gap value suggests that there is more demand than supply for an industry’s goods or services and that the area may need more firms to meet the demand that exists for that industry’s goods. There are 39 industries represented in the retail gap analysis herein. Those industries’ gaps are discussed below. Primary Market Area For the PMA, 15 of the 39 industry sectors had negative, or no gap, meaning that there was generally enough supply of those industries’ goods, while the other 24 had positive, or existing gaps, meaning those industries could accommodate additional firms to provide services to the PMA’s consumers (see Table III-1). These 39 industries include three-digit NAICS industries. Excluding those, the data show that 20 of 28 industries have are under- represented in the PMA. Of eight groups/subgroups that complement DMG in terms of the area’s character and the community’s goal for enhancing the DMG, and which also have retail gaps of $1M+ in the PMA, there are a “top Clothing Stores with a gap of nearly $19M, Health and Personal Care Stores with a gap of about $18M and Miscellaneous Store Retailers with a gap of $13.5M. Combined, these three groups account for 77 percent ($50.5M) of the PMA’s retail gap of nearly $66M gap in 2017. (See Figure III-1). At fourth place, “Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages” suggests that there is a need for more restaurants. This is expected with an area, like the Carson Valley, that is a visitor destination. This gap is approximately $5.4 M million and suggests to the Consultant Team that—based on visitation to the region—that the PMA can support more restaurants, especially if visitation were to increase. Additionally, certain types of restaurants would likely do well even if there were no future increase in visitation, based on interviews conducted with regional stakeholders, as discussed in Section IV. Notable industries that should be considered for the PMA because they had positive gaps in 2017 include: • Clothing Stores (+$18.7 M) • Health & Personal Care Stores (+$18.2 M) • Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instrument Stores M) • Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages M) ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-10 • Shoe Stores M) • Specialty Food Stores M) • Book, Periodical & Music Stores M) • Miscellaneous Store Retailers art supply stores, candle shops, collector items) (+$13.5 M) To recap, businesses in these eight groups and subgroups generally have the requisite gaps and would mesh with the desire to introduce boutique shopping opportunities in DMG. For example, Higher-end clothing stores could attract business from both residents and visitors alike, especially considering the higher-than-average incomes in the area. Health & Personal Care Stores should see demand increase even more as the region’s population continues to age. Sporting goods stores would go hand-in-hand with ecotourism in the region. Bars are especially popular with visitors. Specialty Food Stores include markets that sell organic foods, ethnic foods and other specialty products. The data suggest a shortage of these types of retailers. Table III-2 provides list of industry groups and complementary store examples. Secondary Market Area For the SMA, 23 of the 39 (see Table III-3) industries had negative, or no gaps, while only 16 had positive, or existing gaps. Excluding the three-digit NAICS industries, 15 of the 39 industries are adequately, or in some cases more than adequately, serve the SMA. Notable industries with no gaps in demand are “Department Stores” $431.9 “Restaurants/Other Eating Places” (-$136.9 “Clothing Stores” (-$27.2 and “Grocery Stores” $161.8 M) The surplus in department stores shows that this is not likely something needed in the SMA. The SMA includes southern Reno, so the large-box stores department stores) in the region serving much of the Reno-Sparks metro area are located in the more urban areas. Conversely, like the PMA, “Drinking Places- Alcoholic Beverages” also shows an annual supply gap ($17.4M). As noted above, this would be expected in the Carson Valley due to the prevalence of tourism, especially visiting from Lake Tahoe. There are also numerous four-digit NAICS industries with an existing gap (under-represented in the SMA). The industry with the largest gap is “Gasoline Stations” (+101.5 “Health & Personal Care Stores” is another industry with a large gap (+$54.9 However, neither of these industries is likely to pull visitors to DMG from the SMA. Industries that should be considered for the SMA, because they appear to be under-represented in the SMA, include: • Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages (+$17.4 M) • Specialty Food Stores M) • Shoe Stores M) • Miscellaneous Store Retailers art supply stores, candle shops, collector items) (+$15 M) ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-11 Restaurant/Bars with a unique theme or atmosphere have the potential to draw people to DMG for overnight stays. Unique boutique furniture stores could be a potential draw for the Study Area, as they are in other areas, like Carmel-by-the-Sea, California. The boutique theme applies to the other industries included as well. Retailers in DMG should focus on offering unique products, services and food and beverage opportunities to attract a broader range of visitors as well as to enhance the lifestyles of local residents. Some of the needed expansion may concern part of the Douglas County population, but without it, the region is likely to stagnate D. Economic Benefits from Tourism As part of the Study, the Consultant Team analyzed visitor spending data from the Carson Valley Visitors Authority (“CVVA”). The Team used the widely-used and accepted9 IMPLAN (IMpact Analysis for PLANning) input-output model10 to derive tourism impacts. The model area included both Minden and Gardnerville. We assumed the expenditure data provided by the CVVA were expenditures made within the Minden-Gardnerville economy. The Consultant Team calculated three types of economic benefits: direct, indirect and induced. The concept of a direct benefit is relatively straightforward. However, the concepts of indirect and induced benefits, while critically important in assessing the totality of benefits associated with new economic activities, are often misunderstood in economic analysis. Fundamentally, these secondary and tertiary benefits are based on an extension of the direct expenditures/spending associated with tourism purchases. Each type of benefit is briefly summarized below. • Direct benefits are due to the retail purchases associated with tourism; the jobs created to support the retail stores, etc.; and the labor income, or “earnings” (employee compensation, proprietor income and benefits paid) – essentially the direct benefits associated with tourism. • Indirect benefits are the local purchases of goods and services resulting from the initial direct spending caused by tourism spending. For example, the retail stores’ spending on office supplies, rent, utilities, food manufacturing and the like will cause suppliers to replenish inventories, etc. These sales are counted as an indirect economic benefit. • Induced benefits are the output, employment and earnings growth generated by the employees of tourism firms and their local suppliers as they consume goods and services in the Minden-Gardnerville Study Area economy. Put another way, induced benefits are benefits from earnings spent by direct and indirect employees. For example, a new employee to the area works as a salesperson at one of the hotels. The 9 Baumol, W. (2000). “Leontief’s Great Leap Forward Beyond Quesney, Marx, and von Bortkiewicz”. Economic Systems Research, 12(2):141-152. 10 www.implan.com ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-12 portion of his or her personal income will be spent locally, will cycle through the region, and will be exchanged among local merchants; thus, inducing additional new spending (retail, food, gas, etc.) and employment in the region. In the Study, the indirect and induced effects were combined and reported as “Secondary Effects.” The results show the benefit of an industry on overall economic activity and employment. This EBA was prepared under various limiting assumptions acknowledged and presented below: • Substitution Effects: This analysis does not factor in any changes to purchases of other goods and services on which tourism expenditures might alternatively have been spent. Without factoring in consumers’ substitutions between goods and services, the EBA measures economic benefits of the tourism industry to the regional economy. • Supply/Demand Pooling: The Team has assumed that demands will be accommodated in the Minden- Gardnerville Study Area to the greatest extent possible. Thus, all needs that can possibly be met by in-area producers/suppliers will be met by these producers/suppliers. If demand is greater than supply, local producers/suppliers will meet as much of that demand as possible, and the remaining demand will be met from outside the region. Since this minimizes imports, it would maximize local economic activity and the resulting multipliers. • Economic Leakage: The Consultant Team’s analysis also recognizes as important, “leakage” from the Minden-Gardnerville Study Area due to spending on purchases outside of the region. Economic leakage refers to revenues that flow out of a local or regional economy to finance the purchase of goods and services from outside sources (imports) instead of being purchased locally. In general, the smaller the geographic study area is, the greater the leakage is. In this Study, all economic benefit estimates (except employment) are in inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars. Three categories are estimated for each type of benefit. They include: • Changes to output/spending (equivalent to Gross Product) • Changes to employment (measured in terms of total annual jobs) • Changes to earnings (employee compensation, proprietor income and benefits paid) For tourism, more than one economic sector will be employed to derive contributions or impacts of Minden- Gardnerville Study Area tourism activities. The tourism activities for the area economy will be the Hotels and ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-13 Motels, Including Casinos Hotels sector, the Full-Service Restaurants sector, the Retail-Food and Beverage sector, the Retail-Gas sector, the Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instruments and Book Stores sector, the Retail-Clothing and Accessory Stores sector, and the Airport Transportation sector. Using the Minden-Gardnerville interindustry model, value of output, total employment and earnings impacts of tourism expenditures made in the Minden-Gardnerville Study Area are shown in Table III-4. Direct tourism expenditures in the Minden-Gardnerville Study Area were estimated to be $57.6 million, which directly employed about 520 total employees with local earnings of $21.1 million. With these direct impacts from data supplied by the CVVV, $9.9 million in secondary economic activity was generated in the Minden-Gardnerville economy. When added to direct tourism impacts, total economic impacts to the Minden-Gardnerville Study Area are estimated to be $62.3 million. Employment in the supply-chain industries is estimated to be about 30 employees, which yields total employment impacts of 550 employees. Workers in secondary jobs earn $1.4 million, and when added to direct earnings yields total income impacts of tourism in the Minden-Gardnerville economy of $22.5 million. E. Existing Business Inventory As part of the scope, the Consultant Team developed a list of businesses in the Study Area. The business data were collected by Data-Axle11 (formerly known as InfoUSA—a well-known curator of widely-used US business and consumer data) and collated by ESRI based on the definitions of the DMG area as defined by Douglas County. The data in Table III-5 do not include addresses as an exportable output but were filtered based on address by ESRI (see Figure III-24). The table contains the company name, its eight-digit NAICS industry code, city and ZIP code. The Consultant Team also collected public data from the Nevada Secretary of State (“SOS”) on businesses in Minden and Gardnerville. A potential issue with these data is that the SOS does not collect addresses on businesses. Instead, the SOS collects addresses on an “agent” of each business. Therefore, the address associated with a company may not necessarily represent the physical location of that business. However, in this case, we suspect that most businesses with agents whose addresses are in Minden or Gardnerville are likely located in the towns as well. These data are limited to identification numbers, corporation category, corporation name as well as corporate agent name and address. A spreadsheet with the list of these businesses is available upon request. 11 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-14 Exhibits Table III-1: PMA Retail Gap Analysis: 2017 Industry Groups NAICS Demand Supply Retail Gap Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 441 $154,904,181 $14,513,728 $140,390,453 Automobile Dealers 4411 $126,203,979 $4,663,020 $121,540,959 Other General Merchandise Stores 4529 $43,329,244 $7,721,750 $35,607,494 Gasoline Stations 447,4471 $78,101,971 $54,532,556 $23,569,415 Clothing Stores 4481 $28,031,337 $9,295,999 $18,735,338 Health & Personal Care Stores 446,4461 $51,431,651 $33,205,018 $18,226,633 Bldg. Material & Supplies Dealers 4441 $51,944,056 $38,134,616 $13,809,440 Misc. Store Retailers art supply stores, candle shops, collector items) 453 $30,448,354 $16,906,539 $13,541,815 Bldg. Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores 444 $54,176,480 $41,343,435 $12,833,045 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 4539 $20,811,821 $10,263,988 $10,547,833 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 4412 $15,499,864 $5,926,511 $9,573,353 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores 4413 $13,200,338 $3,924,197 $9,276,141 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 7224 $7,956,017 $2,539,464 $5,416,553 Specialty Food Stores 4452 $5,078,102 $1,320,487 $3,757,615 Book, Periodical & Music Stores 4512 $2,856,793 $130,965 $2,725,828 Nonstore Retailers 454 $11,049,297 $8,803,757 $2,245,540 Shoe Stores 4482 $4,759,413 $2,761,773 $1,997,640 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores 4532 $4,107,621 $2,288,990 $1,818,631 Direct Selling Establishments 4543 $3,497,337 $1,739,209 $1,758,128 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores 451 $18,978,838 $17,568,392 $1,410,446 Florists 4531 $1,096,853 $207,545 $889,308 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 4453 $5,694,376 $4,966,665 $727,711 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses 4541 $7,215,157 $6,752,575 $462,582 Used Merchandise Stores 4533 $4,432,059 $4,146,016 $286,043 Vending Machine Operators 4542 $336,803 $311,973 $24,830 Special Food Services 7223 $686,517 $1,023,723 -$337,206 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores 4442 $2,232,424 $3,208,819 -$976,395 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores 4511 $16,122,045 $17,437,427 -$1,315,382 Furniture Stores 4421 $13,357,037 $14,935,540 -$1,578,503 Electronics & Appliance Stores 443 $18,905,254 $24,530,234 -$5,624,980 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 448 $41,141,807 $47,105,003 -$5,963,196 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 442 $23,850,329 $33,443,540 -$9,593,211 Food Services & Drinking Places 722 $79,314,185 $95,725,592 -$16,411,407 Restaurants/Other Eating Places 7225 $70,671,651 $92,162,405 -$21,490,754 Food & Beverage Stores 445 $110,254,412 $135,697,146 -$25,442,734 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores 4483 $8,351,057 $35,047,231 -$26,696,174 Grocery Stores 4451 $99,481,934 $129,409,994 -$29,928,060 General Merchandise Stores 452 $129,630,228 $190,543,511 -$60,913,283 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. 4521 $86,300,984 $182,821,761 -$96,520,777 Source: ESR. 2017 data published in 202I ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-15 Table III-2: Complementary Retailers Related to PMA Retail Gap Groups Industry Gap Group NAICS Retail Gap Complementary Store Examples Clothing Stores 4481 $18,735,338 Shoe & Jewelry Stores Health & Personal Care Stores 446,4461 $18,226,633 Hair Salons, Yoga Studios Misc. Store Retailers 453 $13,541,815 Art supply stores, candle shops, collector items) Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 7224 $5,416,553 Restaurants: Fast Casual, Fine Dining, Casual Dining Book, Periodical & Music Stores 4512 $2,725,828 Coffee/Tea Shop, Smoothie Store Shoe Stores 4482 $1,997,640 Clothing Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores 451 $1,410,446 Off-Road Vehicle & Outdoor Equipment Sales & Service Stores Special Food Stores 4452 $3,757,615 Ice Cream Store, Wine/Cheese Shop Total $65,811,868 Source: The Consultant Team ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-16 Table III-3: SMA Retail Gap Analysis: 2017 Industry Group NAICS Demand Supply Retail Gap Gasoline Stations 447,4471 $343,473,107 $241,930,542 $101,542,565 Health & Personal Care Stores 446,4461 $227,587,345 $172,717,072 $54,870,273 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 442 $110,547,204 $93,249,070 $17,299,134 Bldg. Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores 444 $233,817,313 $209,888,494 $23,928,819 Bldg. Material & Supplies Dealers 4441 $223,284,706 $200,627,582 $22,657,124 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 7224 $172,299,842 $15,144,810 $17,418,743 Misc. Store Retailers art supply stores, candle shops, collector items) 453 $134,458,061 $119,506,293 $14,951,768 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 4539 $89,917,927 $76,134,022 $13,783,905 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores 4413 $59,320,414 $50,769,676 $8,550,738 Direct Selling Establishments 4543 $14,350,585 $6,056,079 $8,294,506 Specialty Food Stores 4452 $25,183,538 $18,137,413 $7,046,125 Shoe Stores 4482 $23,065,794 $16,685,879 $6,379,915 Florists 4531 $5,085,968 $2,414,303 $2,671,665 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores 4442 $10,532,607 $9,260,912 $1,271,695 Vending Machine Operators 4542 $1,518,155 $311,973 $1,206,182 Used Merchandise Stores 4533 $19,396,476 $19,027,252 $369,224 Special Food Services 7223 $3,756,318 $5,358,605 -$1,602,287 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores 4532 $20,057,690 $21,930,716 -$1,873,026 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 4453 $28,128,794 $30,174,741 -$2,045,947 Home Furnishings Stores 4422 $48,794,566 $52,053,694 -$3,259,128 Book, Periodical & Music Stores 4512 $13,485,602 $17,962,356 -$4,476,754 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 4412 $71,532,384 $80,770,940 -$9,238,556 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores 4483 $38,495,095 $54,807,319 -$16,312,224 Clothing Stores 4481 $134,615,886 $151,842,286 -$17,226,400 Other General Merchandise Stores 4529 $200,061,030 $220,311,078 -$20,250,048 Electronics & Appliance Stores 443 $91,950,147 $113,134,211 -$21,184,064 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 448 $196,176,775 $223,335,484 -$27,158,709 Nonstore Retailers 454 $56,090,141 $83,441,231 -$27,351,090 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses 4541 $40,221,401 $77,073,179 -$36,851,778 Automobile Dealers 4411 $563,879,479 $626,233,516 -$62,354,037 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 441 $694,732,277 $757,774,132 -$63,041,855 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores 4511 $75,858,575 $147,496,606 -$71,638,031 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores 451 $89,344,177 $165,458,962 -$76,114,785 Food Services & Drinking Places 722 $363,589,231 $484,673,974 -$121,084,743 Restaurants/Other Eating Places 7225 $327,269,360 $464,170,559 -$136,901,199 Food & Beverage Stores 445 $503,880,416 $660,701,921 -$156,821,505 Grocery Stores 4451 $450,568,084 $612,389,767 -$161,821,683 Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. 4521 $384,481,033 $816,395,102 -$431,914,069 General Merchandise Stores 452 $584,542,063 $1,036,706,180 -$452,164,117 Source: ESR. 2017 data published in 2021 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-17 Table III-4: Minden-Gardnerville Tourism Benefits: 2019 Effect Type Spending/Output Employment Earnings Direct Effect $57,602,000 520 $21,078,000 Secondary Effect $9,934,000 30 $1,405,000 Total Effect $62,295,000 550 $22,482,000 Multiplier 1.08 1.06 1.07 Sources: The Consultant Team, Carson Valley Visitors Authority, IMPLAN Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021 # Company Name NAICS City ZIP 1 MINER CHIROPRACTIC 62131002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 2 BEACHCOMBER 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 3 CARSON VALLEY MIDDLE SCHOOL 61111007 GARDNERVILLE 89410 4 GARDNERVILLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 61111007 GARDNERVILLE 89410 5 J T BASQUE BAR & DINING ROOM 72251117 GARDNERVILLE 89410 6 JOYCE'S JEWELRY GIFTS & ANTQS 44831012 GARDNERVILLE 89410 7 LUCKY LIQUOR 44531004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 8 PARTS HOUSE 44131011 GARDNERVILLE 89410 9 SHARKEY'S CASINO 71321001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 10 SIERRA MOTEL 72111002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 11 VILLAGE MOTEL 72111002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 12 COUNTRY CAROUSEL 45322013 GARDNERVILLE 89410 13 MILLENNIUM MEDICAL DAY SPA 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 14 FELICIA EVENTS 44812002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 15 CHESHIRE ANTIQUES 45331001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 16 A LITTLE SHOP OF HAIR 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 17 PACIFIC GASOLINE STATION 44719005 GARDNERVILLE 89410 18 DART 48599906 GARDNERVILLE 89410 19 IMMACULATE TATTOO 81219923 GARDNERVILLE 89410 20 LAW OFFICE OF RONALD F CAULEY 54111002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 21 LASTING IMPRESSIONS 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 22 CR BAIL BONDS 99999004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 23 PADGETT BUSINESS SVC 54121301 GARDNERVILLE 89410 24 BIG DADDY'S 45111006 GARDNERVILLE 89410 25 ACCOLADE TROPHIES ENGRV-GIFTS 45399867 GARDNERVILLE 89410 26 VELVET TOUCH SALON 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 27 VILLAGE LAUNDERETTE 81232001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 28 CLARK PLUMBING HEATING & AIR 23822025 GARDNERVILLE 89410 29 WALTON'S FUNERALS & CREMATIONS 81221002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 30 ELLEN'S INTERIORS 54141003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 31 SECOND CHANCE CONSIGNMEN 45331014 GARDNERVILLE 89410 32 FLIP FLOP THRIFT & EXCHANGE 45331014 GARDNERVILLE 89410 33 ALLSTATE INSURANCE CO 52421001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 34 JOHN SCOTT-STATE FARM INS AGNT 52421001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 35 VALLEY EYECARE & EYEWEAR 62132003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 36 VINCENT P D'ASCOLI LTD 62121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 37 GARY DYKES DENTAL LAB 33911604 GARDNERVILLE 89410 38 GREGORY V HOLST LTD 54121903 GARDNERVILLE 89410 39 FRESH IDEAS 45322013 GARDNERVILLE 89410 40 A LA CARTE NAILS 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-18 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021, cont. # Company Name NAICS City ZIP 41 WARREN W REED INSURANCE 52421001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 42 WOODETT'S DINER 72251117 GARDNERVILLE 89410 43 COLBRE GRADING & PAVING OF NV 23731010 GARDNERVILLE 89410 44 FULL CIRCLE COMPOST INC 32531402 GARDNERVILLE 89410 45 REALTY EXECUTIVES NEVADA'S CHC 53121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 46 ST GALL CATHOLIC CHR RELIGIOUS 81311008 GARDNERVILLE 89410 47 AESTHETICALLY SPEAKING 81211204 GARDNERVILLE 89410 48 LAKE MARY JANE INSURANCE 52421006 GARDNERVILLE 89410 49 CARSON VALLEY FOOT CARE 62139103 GARDNERVILLE 89410 50 STUDIO 6 HAIR DESIGN 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 51 ATM 52211001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 52 ATM 52211001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 53 BEREAN BIBLE CHURCH 81311008 GARDNERVILLE 89410 54 GARDNERVILLE HEALTH & SANI 42469001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 55 TOWN OF GARDNERVILLE 92112006 GARDNERVILLE 89410 56 JJ'S MEXICAN FOOD 72251117 GARDNERVILLE 89410 57 NEVADA UGLY 72241001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 58 AMHAR LLC 44512001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 59 JAMIE HENRY LAW OFFICE 54111002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 60 INSPIRE COUNSELING 62411004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 61 VISIT CARSON VALLEY 56151004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 62 TRINITY LUTHERAN CHILD CARE 62441003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 63 ATM 52211001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 64 ATM 52211001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 65 ATM 52211001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 66 ATM 52211001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 67 ATM 52211001 GARDNERVILLE 89460 68 POPPA PHONE FIX 51731214 GARDNERVILLE 89410 69 LONE TREE FRAME CO 44229982 GARDNERVILLE 89410 70 MOUNTAIN SPORTS ACUPUNCTURE 62139901 GARDNERVILLE 89410 71 FULL SCALE INVESTMENTS LLC 52391001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 72 TRUMBLY TATTOO REMOVAL 81219918 GARDNERVILLE 89410 73 ROSALBA'S CLEANING SVC 56172001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 74 NUTRITION UNLIMITED 44529914 GARDNERVILLE 89410 75 A WILDFLOWER 45399870 GARDNERVILLE 89410 76 EL DORADO SAVINGS BANK 52211002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 77 VAN RENSSELAER JEWELERS 44831012 GARDNERVILLE 89410 78 TRINITY LUTHERAN CHURCH 81311008 GARDNERVILLE 89410 79 CHASE & SHEETS 54121101 GARDNERVILLE 89410 80 U.S. BANK BRANCH 52211002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 Sources: ESRI, Data-Axle ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-19 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021, cont. # Company Name NAICS City ZIP 81 PARTNERSHIP COMMUNITY 81331908 GARDNERVILLE 89410 82 DOUGLAS MENTAL HEALTH CLINIC 92112008 GARDNERVILLE 89410 83 CAMPORA PROPANE SVC 42472005 GARDNERVILLE 89410 84 O'REILLY AUTO PARTS 44131011 GARDNERVILLE 89410 85 SILVERA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE 53121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 86 MAIN STREET BARBERS 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 87 HISTORIAN INN 72111002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 88 LYNNE CAULEY REAL ESTATE MGMT 53121005 GARDNERVILLE 89410 89 CHRISTENSEN AUTOMOTIVE 81111104 GARDNERVILLE 89410 90 EL ATUILA REAL 72251117 GARDNERVILLE 89410 91 TURBO CAR WASH 81119208 GARDNERVILLE 89410 92 BUCKAROOS 72241001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 93 EDWARD JONES 52393002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 94 KINNEY'S CARPET CARE 56174001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 95 NEVADA LANDWORKS CORP 56173011 GARDNERVILLE 89410 96 HOLBROOK STATION MINI MART 44512001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 97 BATTLE BORN WINE 44531005 GARDNERVILLE 89410 98 ENHANCEMENTS PERMANENT 81219917 GARDNERVILLE 89410 99 ERIC S PARK DDS PC 62121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 100 J M CLOUSER & ASSOC LTD 54111002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 101 DOUGLAS COUNTY SOCIAL SVC 92112007 GARDNERVILLE 89410 102 FABRIC CHICKS CREATIVE OASIS 45113007 GARDNERVILLE 89410 103 ABBYJO'S CAF GIRASOLE 72251117 GARDNERVILLE 89410 104 FARMERS INSURANCE 52421001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 105 ARROWHEAD DENTAL CTR 62121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 106 SIERRA MARKET 44511003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 107 RECORD-COURIER 51111003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 108 PETROLEUM CARD SVC 51821007 GARDNERVILLE 89410 109 1-WAY AUTO REPAIR 81111104 GARDNERVILLE 89410 110 DESIGNING IMAGES 54141003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 111 BIG BLUE SPA/POOL SVC & REPAIR 56111020 GARDNERVILLE 89410 112 DECEMBER HAIR DESIGN 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 113 ELECTRIC CHARGING STATION 44719010 GARDNERVILLE 89410 114 CHICAGO MIKES PIZZA 72251117 GARDNERVILLE 89410 115 RNR AUTOMOTIVE LLC 81111104 GARDNERVILLE 89410 116 OLDFIELDADVISERS 99999004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 117 EMPOWERED ENTREPRENEURS LLC 99999004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 118 SIERRA CHEF 56131119 GARDNERVILLE 89410 119 GARDNERVILLE WATER CO 99999004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 120 DOUGLAS CENTER FOR HOPE 99999004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-20 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021, cont. # Company Name NAICS City ZIP 121 DELICATE DEFINITIONS INC 81331908 GARDNERVILLE 89410 122 FRONTIER 51821013 GARDNERVILLE 89410 123 DIRECT AUTO SALES 44112005 GARDNERVILLE 89410 124 JERRY'S GRILL 72251117 GARDNERVILLE 89410 125 DISTINCT INTERIORS 54141003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 126 FROMARC INSURANCE AGENCY INC 52421001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 127 DOUGLAS COUNTY HISTORICAL SCTY 81341016 GARDNERVILLE 89410 128 F C E CONSULTANTS 54161812 GARDNERVILLE 89410 129 LL REALTY INC 53121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 130 EDDY STREET VINTAGE MARKET 44511003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 131 NOR CAL FXR 33999936 GARDNERVILLE 89410 132 R WILSON & SONS INC 54111002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 133 LUNA MASSAGE & SHAMANIC 81219915 GARDNERVILLE 89410 134 RCM REALTY GROUP 53121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 135 POLISH NAIL BAR 81211302 GARDNERVILLE 89410 136 CARSON VALLEY FOOT CARE 42345026 GARDNERVILLE 89410 137 RE STYLE 45331013 GARDNERVILLE 89410 138 EAST TO WEST COAST GROOMING 81291021 GARDNERVILLE 89410 139 TOOTHFAIRY PEDIATRIC DENTAL 62121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 140 RODEO GIRL CO 44812001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 141 CANDLELIGHT & ROSES INC 45311001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 142 BOHEME HAIR LOUNGE LLC 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 143 SHAMPUP 81291021 GARDNERVILLE 89410 144 DOUGLAS COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT 61111018 GARDNERVILLE 89410 145 STEPHANIE FULSTONE ESTHETICIAN 81211204 GARDNERVILLE 89410 146 THIS & THAT MARKETPLACE LLC 45399878 GARDNERVILLE 89410 147 DST COFFEE 72251505 GARDNERVILLE 89410 148 BEST FRIENDS GROOMING 81291021 GARDNERVILLE 89410 149 FUN & FENG SHUI 81299023 GARDNERVILLE 89410 150 JEN'S LASHES 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 151 GARDNERVILLE MASSAGE-HOLISTIC 81219908 GARDNERVILLE 89410 152 TRUE BLISS 81211204 GARDNERVILLE 89410 153 FACES SKIN STUDIO 44612001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 154 MAIN STREET BAKING CO 31181102 GARDNERVILLE 89410 155 PROVIDENT PROSPERITY 54121903 GARDNERVILLE 89410 156 STATE FARM INSURANCE 52421001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 157 SIERRA TRAINING-WELLNESS STD 61143006 GARDNERVILLE 89410 158 POLISH ENVY 44612001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 159 E & J LAWN SVC & LANDSCAPING 56173011 GARDNERVILLE 89410 160 GREATER NEVADA MORTGAGE 52229202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-21 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021, cont. # Company Name NAICS City ZIP 161 ENERGETIC SOLUTIONS 81219908 GARDNERVILLE 89410 162 HLP COMPLIANCE INC 54161830 GARDNERVILLE 89410 163 CARSON VALLEY COMPUTER 44314241 GARDNERVILLE 89410 164 OXOBY MOBILE HOME PARK LLC 53119004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 165 T N T'S SALON 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 166 1ST IN LINE INC 99999004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 167 BELLATOR FIREARMS TRAINING LLC 61162011 GARDNERVILLE 89410 168 SARAH MARIE PHOTOGRAPHY 54192121 GARDNERVILLE 89410 169 STACY TRIVITT 99999004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 170 LINDA SCHRADE HAIR DESIGN 81211202 GARDNERVILLE 89410 171 LIBERTY HOMES LLC 23611506 GARDNERVILLE 89410 172 CARSON VALLEY REALTY 53121003 GARDNERVILLE 89410 173 NETTI'S FASHION DESIGN 44819001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 174 BOBBY PAGES DRY CLEANERS 81232002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 175 CARSON VALLEY LOCKSMITH 56162204 GARDNERVILLE 89410 176 BEVERLY REALTY INC 53139006 GARDNERVILLE 89410 177 CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 81391005 GARDNERVILLE 89410 178 ESPECIALLY FOR YOU 45322013 GARDNERVILLE 89410 179 EAST FORK GALLERY 45392002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 180 BUSINESS COUNCIL DOUGLAS CNTY 81391004 GARDNERVILLE 89410 181 CARSON VALLEY CTR 71211001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 182 CJS FLOORS 44221001 GARDNERVILLE 89410 183 HAYES KARA M LAW OFFICES 54111002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 184 WELLS FARGO BANK 52211002 GARDNERVILLE 89410 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-22 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021, cont. # Company Name NAICS City ZIP 1 PEAK NUTRITION 62139925 MINDEN 89423 2 ATM 52211001 MINDEN 89423 3 SIGNS OF EXCITEMENT 54143006 MINDEN 89423 4 MASSAGE BY SHASTA 81219908 MINDEN 89423 5 DOUGLAS COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT 61111018 MINDEN 89423 6 HOLIDAY LODGE 72111002 MINDEN 89423 7 COFFEE ON MAIN 72251505 MINDEN 89423 8 A GOURMET SEWING CO 44819001 MINDEN 89423 9 SIERRA SCOOP LLC 51111003 MINDEN 89423 10 E SQUARED C INC 54151105 MINDEN 89423 11 FRANCISCO'S MEXICAN 72251117 MINDEN 89423 12 TUMBLEWIND 45322013 MINDEN 89423 13 LONE TREE FRAME CO 45399852 MINDEN 89423 14 DOUG DEES CONSTRUCTION INC 23611502 MINDEN 89423 15 CALNEVA REALTY 53121003 MINDEN 89423 16 GABRIEL'S GARDENING & FIRE SVC 56173011 MINDEN 89423 17 DOUGLAS CNTY VOTER & ELECTION 92112007 MINDEN 89423 18 DOUGLAS COUNTY AUDITOR 92112007 MINDEN 89423 19 PR IMPORTS 42399019 MINDEN 89423 20 MINDEN DERMATOLOGY 62111107 MINDEN 89423 21 DOUGLAS COUNTY SCHOOLS 61111018 MINDEN 89423 22 DOUGLAS COUNTY DEPUTY CLERK 92112007 MINDEN 89423 23 45392002 MINDEN 89423 24 ROWE & HALES LLP ATTY AT LAW 54111002 MINDEN 89423 25 NANCY L EPSTEIN HYPNOTHERAPY 62139912 MINDEN 89423 26 DOUGLAS COUNTY CLERK 92112007 MINDEN 89423 27 DOUGLAS COUNTY COMMISSIONERS 92119002 MINDEN 89423 28 DOUGLAS COUNTY ASSESSOR 92112007 MINDEN 89423 29 ROMADYN CORP 33451929 MINDEN 89423 30 BETTY LOWE VERUS REALTY 53121003 MINDEN 89423 31 DOUGLAS COUNTY PERSONNEL 92112007 MINDEN 89423 32 SIERRA PACIFIC MORTGAGE 52229202 MINDEN 89423 33 DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS 53121003 MINDEN 89423 34 DOUGLAS COUNTY COMMUNITY DEV 92512002 MINDEN 89423 35 CARSON VALLEY THEATRE 71111007 MINDEN 89423 36 MINDEN MEAT & DELI 44521006 MINDEN 89423 37 WESTERN TITLE CO INC 54119106 MINDEN 89423 38 PINNACLE CONSTRUCTION 23611823 MINDEN 89423 39 MINDEN NAILS 81211302 MINDEN 89423 40 AMERICAN FAMILY INSURANCE 52421001 MINDEN 89423 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-23 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021, cont. # Company Name NAICS City ZIP 41 CORNER BAR 72241001 MINDEN 89423 42 DOUGLAS COUNTY TREASURER 92112007 MINDEN 89423 43 DOUGLAS COUNTY DEVMNT 92112007 MINDEN 89423 44 DOUGLAS COUNTY HUMAN RESOURCES 92112007 MINDEN 89423 45 NEW LEAF LANDSCAPE 56173009 MINDEN 89423 46 BENTLY ENTERPRISES 42384004 MINDEN 89423 47 VANDER LAAN LAW FIRM LLC 54111002 MINDEN 89423 48 DOUGLAS COUNTY TECHNOLOGY SVC 92112007 MINDEN 89423 49 CFN CARDLOCK 42472026 MINDEN 89423 50 DOUGLAS COUNTY CONSTABLE 92112007 MINDEN 89423 51 DOUGLAS COUNTY VOTER 92112007 MINDEN 89423 52 DOUGLAS COUNTY RECORDING CLERK 92112007 MINDEN 89423 53 BUILDING CONCEPTS INC 54133006 MINDEN 89423 54 DOUGLAS OVERHEAD DOOR CO 44419017 MINDEN 89423 55 COUNTY COMPTROLLER 92113002 MINDEN 89423 56 EROSION CONTROL 92112007 MINDEN 89423 57 MARRIAGE CERTIFICATE RECORDS 92112007 MINDEN 89423 58 SHERIFF LICENSING & PERMITS 92112007 MINDEN 89423 59 MACIAS PHOTOGRAPHY 54192204 MINDEN 89423 60 MATHEWS APPRAISAL CO 54199001 MINDEN 89423 61 KAP INVESTMENTS 53121004 MINDEN 89423 62 R J ROOFING INC 23816013 MINDEN 89423 63 ROWE HALES YTURBIDE LLP 54111002 MINDEN 89423 64 QUALCOM CONTRACTORS INC 23611506 MINDEN 89423 65 MINDEN ELECTRIC 23821007 MINDEN 89423 66 LAW OFFICE OF KAREN L WINTERS 54111002 MINDEN 89423 67 DOUGLAS COUNTY JUVENILE 92214002 MINDEN 89423 68 DEJA VU SALON 81211202 MINDEN 89423 69 TESTA RACING 81131027 MINDEN 89423 70 C & CO 81211202 MINDEN 89423 71 FLYERS 44719005 MINDEN 89423 72 CARSON VALLEY ARTS COUNCIL 71111010 MINDEN 89423 73 STERLING SPECTRUM INC 23829005 MINDEN 89423 74 FASTENAL 42383035 MINDEN 89423 75 HEART TO HEART SCHOOL 61111007 MINDEN 89423 76 ELECTRIC CHARGING STATION 44719010 MINDEN 89423 77 JUSTICE 44813004 MINDEN 89423 78 BARRY CHIROPRACTIC 62131002 MINDEN 89423 79 SAPPHIRE WIZARD FIRED ARTS 71211004 MINDEN 89423 80 FARMERS INSURANCE THE JULIE 52421001 MINDEN 89423 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-24 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021, cont. # Company Name NAICS City ZIP 81 BERGER NORTH FOUNDATION 54172006 MINDEN 89423 82 SIERRA PACIFIC MORTGAGE 52229101 MINDEN 89423 83 RED BARN ANTIQUES 45331001 MINDEN 89423 84 ELECTRIC CHARGING STATION 44719010 MINDEN 89423 85 COSMEDIX ADVANCED SKIN & LASER 61151106 MINDEN 89423 86 STACI'S ILLUMINATIONS 45399820 MINDEN 89423 87 SLOBOGIN STEEL & CONSTRUCTION 23891057 MINDEN 89423 88 HONEYSUCKLE HAIR SALON 81211202 MINDEN 89423 89 READER OF MINDEN 81299041 MINDEN 89423 90 BENTLY FAMILY LTD 99999004 MINDEN 89423 91 ATM 52211001 MINDEN 89423 92 CONCIERGE TRAVEL LLC 56151001 MINDEN 89423 93 ARTISON 99999004 MINDEN 89423 94 A PLUS AUTO CONSULTANTS 81119808 MINDEN 89423 95 C & S WEED CONTROL 11511216 MINDEN 89423 96 CARSON VALLEY SMALL ENGINES 44421002 MINDEN 89423 97 BENTLY HERITAGE EST DISTILLERY 31214001 MINDEN 89423 98 PRISM PHOTOGRAPHICS INC 54192127 MINDEN 89423 99 COUNTY OF DOUGLAS 92112007 MINDEN 89423 100 M SCOTT PROPERTIES INC 53121003 MINDEN 89423 101 C V HEAT SOCCER CLUB 71121104 MINDEN 89423 102 D D LIQUOR & MOE 44531004 MINDEN 89423 103 DEBUG COMPUTERS INC 44314241 MINDEN 89423 104 DOUGLAS COUNTY 92119006 MINDEN 89423 105 DOUGLAS COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT 61111018 MINDEN 89423 106 COPPER TERRA FIRMA LLC 53121005 MINDEN 89423 107 PRETTY TOUGH BEAUTY 81219917 MINDEN 89423 108 MOXY UP 99999005 MINDEN 89423 109 TOP NOTCH REALTY INC 53121003 MINDEN 89423 110 MINDEN HEATING & AIR COND 23822020 MINDEN 89423 111 A THOUSAND PETALS REIKI STUDIO 62139938 MINDEN 89423 112 FITZHENRY'S CARSON VALLEY 99999004 MINDEN 89423 113 DOUGLAS COUNTY COURTHOUSE 92211002 MINDEN 89423 114 LISA M KOCH AGENCY 52421001 MINDEN 89423 115 MILLWARD LAW LTD 54111002 MINDEN 89423 116 PETERS RICHARD J JR & CO CPA 54121101 MINDEN 89423 117 RO ANDERSON ENGINEERING 54137002 MINDEN 89423 118 US POST OFFICE 49111001 MINDEN 89423 119 COVENTRY CROSS EPISCOPAL CHR 81311008 MINDEN 89423 120 TOWN OF MINDEN 92112006 MINDEN 89423 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-25 Table III-5: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville Businesses: 2021, cont. # Company Name NAICS City Zip 121 BILL HEISE INSURANCE INC 52421001 MINDEN 89423 122 DOUGLAS COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS 92112007 MINDEN 89423 123 SUMMIT CARPET 44221001 MINDEN 89423 124 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL 52393002 MINDEN 89423 125 ONE STOP AUTO & TRANS REPAIR 81111104 MINDEN 89423 126 DESIGNING WITH NATURE 54132004 MINDEN 89423 127 DISTRICT COURT JUDGE 92112007 MINDEN 89423 128 DOUGLAS COUNTY UTILITY BILLING 92112007 MINDEN 89423 129 WALTON'S DOUGLAS COUNTY 81221002 MINDEN 89423 130 KELLY KATHLEEN LAW OFFICE 54111002 MINDEN 89423 Sources: ESRI, Data-Axle ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-26 Figure III-1: Downtown Minden & Gardnerville: 2021 Source: Douglas County Figure III-2: Primary Market Area: 2021 Note: Rust-colored area represents Minden and Gardnerville Census blocks. Source: The Consultant Team ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-27 Figure III-3: Secondary Market Area (Light Green): 2021 Note: Dark green area represents PMA, a subset of SMA. Source: The Consultant Team ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-28 Figure III-4: PMA Demographics: 2010 – 2026 Source: ESRI Figure III-5: SMA Demographics: 2010 – 2026 Source: ESRI 46,043 19,260 13,211 50,184 21,330 14,535 52,358 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0 0 0 2010 2021 2026 Annual Growth Rates 2010 - 2021 2021 - 2026 Population Households 1.0% Families 1.0% 214,949 86,835 56,655 247,065 101,056 65,847 262,132 107,530 70,114 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Population Households Families 2010 2021 2026 Annual Growth Rates 2010 - 2021 2021 - 2026 Population .1.4% 1/2% Households 1.5% 1.2% Families 1.5% 1.3% ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-29 Figure III-6: PMA Age Distribution: 2010 – 2026 Source: ESRI Figure III-7: SMA Age Distribution: 2010 – 2026 Source: ESRI 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 2010 2021 2026 Share of Total Persons 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85+ Median Age: 47.2 Median Age: 50.5 Median Age: 50.6 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2010 2021 2026 Share of Total Persons 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85+ Median Age: 42.5 Median Age: 44.2 Median Age: 44.2 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-30 Figure III-8: PMA Racial & Ethnic Distribution: 2010 – 2026 Source: ESRI Figure III-9: SMA Racial & Ethnic Distribution: 2010 – 2026 Source: ESRI 89.6% 87.0% 85.7% 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 3.3% 4.2% 4.6% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 11.0% 13.9% 15.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2021 2026 Share of Total Persons Race Distribution White Alone Black Alone American Indian Alone Asian Alone Pacific Islander Alone Some Other Race Alone Two or More Races Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 84.4% 81.3% 79.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 3.2% 4.0% 4.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 6.3% 7.3% 7.8% 3.1% 4.0% 4.4% 15.8% 18.5% 20.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2010 2021 2026 Share of Total Persons Race Distribution White Alone Black Alone American Indian Alone Asian Alone Pacific Islander Alone Some Other Race Alone ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-31 Figure III-10: PMA Household Income Distribution: 2021 – 2026 Source: ESRI Figure III-11: SMA Household Income Distribution: 2021 – 2026 Source: ESR 1,569 1,546 1,714 2,737 3,849 3,586 3,196 1,419 1,714 1,516 1,536 1,561 2,708 3,711 4,096 3,450 1,793 1,985 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 <$15,000 $15,000 - $24,999 $25,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000+ Households Income Range 2021 2026 Median HH Income 2021 2026 $68,535 $75,626 7,913 7,200 7,832 11,558 17,167 14,531 17,986 7,715 9,154 7,464 6,439 6,723 11,033 17,242 16,121 21,125 10,258 11,125 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 <$15,000 $15,000 - $24,999 $25,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000+ Households Income Range 2021 2026 Median HH Income 2021 2026 $72,706 $81,043 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-32 Figure III-12: PMA Educational Attainment, 25 Yrs.+: 2021 Source: ESRI Figure III-13: SMA Educational Attainment, 25 Yrs.+: 2021 Source: ESRI 2% 4% 5% 12% 12% 19% 20% 27% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Less than 9th Grade GED/Alternative Credential 9th - 12th Grade, No Diploma Graduate/Professional Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree High School Graduate Some College, No Degree Education Level 2.6% 4.1% 5.6% 10.4% 12.7% 18.2% 21.1% 25.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Less than 9th Grade GED/Alternative Credential 9th - 12th Grade, No Diploma Associate Degree Graduate/Professional Degree High School Graduate Bachelor's Degree Some College, No Degree ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-33 Figure III-14: PMA Housing Units, by Type: 2019 Source: ESRI Figure III-15: SMA Housing Units, by Type: 2019 Source: ESRI 17 201 285 376 671 766 915 1,301 1,594 17,894 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Boat, RV, van, etc. 10 to 19 50 or More 20 to 49 2 5 to 9 3 or 4 1, Attached Mobile Home 1, Detached Unit Count Housing Unit Type Total Units: 24,020 90 2,565 3,110 3,325 3,628 4,856 5,513 5,578 6,854 78,504 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Boat, RV, Van, etc. 50 or more 2 10 to 19 20 to 49 1, Attached 3 or 4 5 to 9 Mobile Home 1, Detached Unit Count Housing Unit Type Total Units: 114,023 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-34 Figure III-16: PMA Housing Units, by Year Built: 2019 Source: ESRI Figure III-17: SMA Housing Units, by Year Built: 2019 Source: ESRI 163 325 413 419 431 1,409 4,615 5,234 5,421 5,590 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Built 1940 to 1949 Built 2010 to 2013 Built 1939 or earlier Built 2014 or later Built 1950 to 1959 Built 1960 to 1969 Built 1980 to 1989 Built 2000 to 2009 Built 1990 to 1999 Built 1970 to 1979 Unit Count Housing Unit Year Built Total Units: 24,020 1,428 1,709 2,431 3,312 4,757 11,000 17,358 22,298 23,208 26,522 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Built 1940 to 1949 Built 1939 or earlier Built 2010 to 2013 Built 2014 or later Built 1950 to 1959 Built 1960 to 1969 Built 1980 to 1989 Built 1990 to 1999 Built 2000 to 2009 Built 1970 to 1979 Unit Count Housing Unit Year Built Total Units: 114,023 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-35 Figure III-18: PMA Housing Units, by Occupancy Type: 2000 – 2026 Source: ESRI Figure III-19: SMA Housing Units, by Occupancy Type: 2000 – 2026 Source: ESRI 11,943 13,770 14,242 15,278 4,193 5,489 7,108 7,080 2,583 4,001 4,153 4,259 18,720 23,260 25,478 26,616 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2000 2010 2021 2026 Housing Units Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Vacant 47,967 57,091 65,503 70,495 23,984 29,722 35,607 36,987 13,400 20,099 20,416 21,393 85,351 106,912 121,526 128,875 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2000 2010 2021 2026 Housing Units Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Vacant ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-36 Figure III-20: PMA Tapestry Groups: 2021 Source: ESRI Figure III-21: SMA Tapestry Groups: 2021 Source: ESRI 2.9% 2.9% 4.2% 7.6% 8.0% 8.2% 23.5% 42.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1. Affluent Estates 2. Upscale Avenues 11. Midtown Singles 10. Rustic Outposts 4. Family Landscapes 6. Cozy Country Living 9. Senior Styles 5. GenXurban Percent of Households Tapestry Segments 0.6% 1.0% 1.9% 4.3% 4.2% 7.5% 8.8% 9.4% 11.3% 14.9% 14.3% 21.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2. Upscale Avenues 12. Hometown 13. Next Wave 7. Sprouting Explorers 10. Rustic Outposts 4. Family Landscapes 9. Senior Styles 11. Midtown Singles 6. Cozy Country Living 8. Middle Ground 1. Affluent Estates 5. GenXurban Percent of Households Tapestry Segments ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-37 Figure III-22: Employment in/to/from Minden and Gardnerville: 2018 Source: Census Bureau ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-38 Figure III-23: Employment Commuting Patterns for Douglas County: 2018 Source: Census Bureau. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-39 Table III-6: Job Destinations for Minden-Gardnerville Residents: 2018 Job Destination Count Share Carson City, NV 2,240 15.2% Reno city, NV 2,065 14.0% Gardnerville CDP, NV 1,156 7.8% Minden CDP, NV 948 6.4% Stateline CDP, NV 809 5.5% East Valley CDP, NV 606 4.1% Sparks city, NV 571 3.9% South Lake Tahoe city, CA 534 3.6% Gardnerville Ranchos CDP, NV 411 2.8% Kingsbury CDP, NV 358 2.4% Indian Hills CDP, NV 325 2.2% Incline Village CDP, NV 225 1.5% Paradise CDP, NV 164 1.1% Las Vegas city, NV 141 1.0% Round Hill Village CDP, NV 139 0.9% Johnson Lane CDP, NV 91 0.6% North Las Vegas city, NV 89 0.6% Henderson city, NV 73 0.5% Fernley city, NV 67 0.5% Topaz Lake CDP, NV 58 0.4% Fallon city, NV 54 0.4% Elko city, NV 49 0.3% Dayton CDP, NV 47 0.3% Ruhenstroth CDP, NV 46 0.3% Truckee town, CA 42 0.3% All Other Locations 3,450 23.4% Source: US Census Bureau. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-40 Figure III-24: PMA Industry Groups with Gaps of $1,000,000 or More that Complement Downtown Minden-Gardnerville, 2017 Source: ESRI, The Consultant Team. Figure III-25: SMA Industry Groups with Gaps of $1,000,000 or More that Complement Downtown Minden-Gardnerville, 2017 Source: ESRI, The Consultant Team. $54.9 $17.3 $17.4 $15.0 $7.0 $6.4 $2.7 $0 $20 $40 $60 Health & Personal Care Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages Misc. Store Retailers art supply stores, candle shops, collector items) Specialty Food Stores Shoe Stores Florists Millions Top 3 Gaps: Clothing Stores: $18.7 M Health & Personal Care: $18.2 M Misc. Store Retailers: $13.5 M Top 3 Gaps: Health & Personal Care: $54.9M Drinking Places-Alcohol: $17.4 M Furniture & Furnishings: $17.3 M ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE III-41 Figure III-26: Downtown Minden-Gardnerville Business Locations: 2021 Sources: ESRI, Data-Axle ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-1 IV. FINDINGS n this section, the Consultant Team discusses the issues applicable to achieving the desired goals for the Subject Area and the hinderances that have kept these goals from realization. The fates of Main Street Minden (“MSM”) and Main Street Gardnerville (“MSG”) are intertwined with those of the Carson Valley and Douglas County as a whole, despite the geographic separations within the region. In addition to the research presented herein, the Consultant Team visited the CV between May 11 and May 13, 2021 to hold a series of in-person interviews (“the Interviews”) regarding the goals, needs and economic state of the CV and its surrounding areas. The identities of the interview subjects will not be divulged to maintain confidentiality. However, they include stakeholders from a wide array of public agencies and private interests in the area. The interview subjects were enthusiastic about improving their community and there was no reason to doubt their sincerity. Based on our discussions with the Client, economic research and the Interviews, the Team identified certain major goals that stakeholders in the CV have for Downtown Minden and Gardnerville and the region at large: 1. Attract higher-end retail amenities 2. Increase visitation, particularly during the weekdays 3. Improve walkability 4. Preserve the rural character of the community These appear to be reasonable goals for the region based on the available and potential future amenities. These goals are also not mutually exclusive. However, based on our interviews, there are two significant obstacles in the way of achieving these goals. One is external and one is internal: • Institutional constraints • A lack of higher-end accommodations The four goals presented can be distilled into one major concept: attraction. Increasing visitation requires expanding and improving the offerings available to potential visitors. As economies change over time, so do the industries and share of the economy those industries make up. Some industries grow while others contract. If a region’s industries do not change as well, that region will ultimately experience contraction. Additionally, there is demand for demographic growth in the CV that would alleviate the worker shortage and provide new consistent demand for goods and services in the Subject Area. I ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-2 These goals and solutions discussed herein are like those discussed in the 2010 Douglas County Economic Vitality Plan in that both stress the importance of maintaining the character of the CV and expanding outdoor offerings.1 However, where that document was more aspirational, this concentrates more on the hurdles that have worked against the region. Achieving the goals desired by the community can be distilled into a single question: • “Do the benefits of achieving the desired goals outweigh the costs?” If the community decides that these endeavors are worth enduring moderate growth, then these goals should be within reach. One hurdle that must be negotiated is the somewhat diverging interests between the two major population groups in the area: • Retirees • Working-age residents Working-age residents have an interest in growing and developing the local economy so that they increase their wealth and spending power. Retirees’ incomes largely come from Social Security and retirement saving accounts, meaning that they are generally disconnected from the regional economy. Many area residents already have an aversion to growth. Retirees appear to have an even greater aversion to growth, based on the Interviews. To successfully convince the community to embrace some level of managed growth, the retirement community must be convinced that they, too, would reap the benefits of growth, which they indeed would. A. Regional The Study Area and surrounding CV have many positive attributes. For example, the towns can be described as attractive, charming and picturesque. As discussed in above, Minden and Gardnerville are adjacent to the Sierra Nevada Mountains, providing mountain views all around. They are also within a 30-minute drive of Lake Tahoe, within a 30-minute drive of the state capital Carson City and less than an hour from the Reno-Sparks Metropolitan Statistical Area 1 Karen Craig Creative Cities. Sep 13, 2010. Douglas County, Nevada, A Community to Match the Scenery: Economic Vitality Plan. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-3 The region’s major strength is its potential offering of outdoor activities. Both Las Vegas2 and especially Reno3 moved away from their overdependence on the gaming industry after the Great Recession as to attract visitors, especially younger visitors. DC should follow suit by supporting messaging and growth around outdoor tourism. Other amenities would naturally follow out of that growth. The area offers a variety of outdoor activities such as golfing, biking, hiking and camping, horse-riding and wild horse-viewing, flying and gliding activities and all-terrain vehicle opportunities. Additionally, as mentioned, Lake Tahoe is less than a 30-minute drive time from Minden, providing all the uses that go along with the Lake, such as boating, swimming, sunbathing, etc. Furthermore, in the winter, world-premiere skiing is available as well. The proximity to the lake goes both ways. Not only can CV residents and visitors enjoy the lake with a short drive, but the CV can capture overflow visitors from the lake. After all, the CV is significantly more affordable than South Lake Tahoe and other lakeside communities, with less expensive experiences and accommodations available. In addition to the lake and the available outdoor activities, the outdoors itself is a strength for the region. The area provides magnificent views of the surrounding mountains, but it also provides views of appealing open spaces and agricultural lands. These open spaces are fragile, in that they can be destroyed by development. Easements would permanently protect these lands. However, these conservation measures require voluntary financial contributions from the community. The Carson Valley Inn (“CVI”) is another draw for the region. The hotel-casino resort is relatively old and is not the most modern hotel, but it is large, provides acceptable accommodations and has a loyal customer base. The CVI also hosts a country music-focused concert series during the summer that seats 1,600 – 2,000 people and draws in visitors from all over western Nevada, including Reno. The concerts also drive traffic to other businesses in the Valley, a benefit for the entire region. Another strength for the region that affects residents more than visitors is a busy and expanding local airport. The Tahoe-Minden Airport provides local air enthusiasts with a place to store and fly their airplanes. According to airport officials, the airport is currently at capacity with a years-long waiting list for available space. However, a coming expansion should alleviate the pent-up demand problem. 2 Feldberg, S. Travel Weekly. “Value bet: Las Vegas evolves to delight millennials.” Sep 26, 2018. 3 Adams, K. CDC Gaming Reports. “Reno has an evolving identity, and a changing narrative.” Nov 3, 2019. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-4 One of the most important is that there is an engaged local business community. In constructing its distillery and campus, Bently Heritage has spent well over $100 million to rehabilitate several historic buildings in Minden. These historical buildings, among the oldest in the state, give the CV a character lacking in most Western US communities. Additionally, Main Street Gardnerville has had success in helping to incubate new businesses in the area and there are young entrepreneurs looking to return home or “make it” in a charming, rural environment. These positive attributes bode well for the region and provide a launchpad to jumpstart a promising future for the county and region. B. Regional Weaknesses While the Study Area and CV have much going for them, they also have several weaknesses that are detrimental to growth that many in the community hope to achieve. Institutional Constraints The single most common complaint during the Interviews was regarding the perceived institutional constraints. The amount and scope of regulatory red tape was thought to be overwhelming by some of the interviewees. Due to what is viewed by several interviewees as a less-than-friendly business environment, it is difficult to obtain final approval on new projects. The Interviews also informed the Team of relatively high fixed costs when starting a new business. For example, the costs of connecting a building to the water system appears to be high. High startup costs can make it difficult to enter the market, especially for smaller businesses. More study should be undertaken to determine how these costs compare to other regions and whether newer policies should be enacted relative to regional infrastructure. Visitor Accommodations Another weakness brought up in the Interviews is that the quality of accommodations and other services around Lake Tahoe has deteriorated over time. Considering that a significant portion of the CV’s tourism comes from overflow visitors to the Lake, this is a problem. If fewer people visit the Lake, fewer people will visit the CV. Accommodations and services in the CV also pose a problem. The CVI provides a valuable service in the region. However, the area needs higher-end, deluxe (the step between a “luxury” property and a property like CVI) non- gaming accommodations as well. This also includes higher quality restaurants. For example, the opening of the ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-5 French Laundry restaurant by Chef Thomas Keller in Yountville in California’s Napa Valley region helped kick off that region’s reputation as a world-class food destination. Workforce Issues Another problem facing the region is the lack of workers. At the time of writing, this problem may be more pronounced due to the post-pandemic surge of pent-up demand for goods and services.4 Nevertheless, the lack of workers in the CV was a problem prior to the pandemic as well, according to interviewees. As discussed in the previous section, Census data that show a net in-flow of workers confirm this suspicion. This is a demographic problem. With a relatively high percentage of retirees, there are fewer working-age individuals in the region than would be expected and, therefore, fewer workers living in the area. For this reason, more workers must commute from outside the region. This makes for longer commutes for workers and makes it more difficult for employers to find qualified workers. Another issue brought up during the Interviews was that of an unskilled workforce. Many workers lacked the skills necessary to be efficient, which causes problems for the area’s employers. Additionally, many start-ups have failed in their endeavors due to a lack of business proficiency and training. Housing Challenges A lack of housing was another common comment expressed by some individuals during the Interviews. This was partly due to an exodus of retired households from California looking to settle down in a state and community with lower costs. However, the attractiveness of the CV’s housing market to newcomers, especially from higher-priced California, has increased dwelling unit costs to established residents. In addition to raising the costs of housing, these new residents, who are accustomed to higher consumer prices in general, may lead to regional inflation relative to all goods. Housing is also tied to the workforce issues and institutional constraints. There is not enough housing to accommodate the region’s demands. Additionally, with rising home prices, workers who would prefer to live closer to work cannot afford to live in the CV, particularly younger workers looking to make the area their home. Instead, they are pushed out to Carson City and even Reno. This ends up reducing economic activity in the CV because those workers take the wages they earn in Douglas County and spend that money in other Nevada counties. 4 Sarah Chaney Cambon. “What Does a Labor Shortage Mean for Unemployment Benefits?” Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2021. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-6 Transportation The transportation issues in the CV involves several factors. The first issue is the amount of traffic has been generally increasing along US-395. This is likely due to several reasons, including increased truck traffic moving goods to and from the Reno-Sparks MSA, more workers commuting to and from the area and more visitors to the area. Muller Parkway, a road improvement project that would pull in much of the through-traffic, with the exception of through-truck traffic away from the downtowns on US-395. From our interviews, we understand that some members of the business community might be reluctant to shift all pass-through traffic to Muller Parkway because they fear the loss of business from those drivers. However, Douglas County leaders should communicate with the community and business-owners to assure them that this is not a likely outcome of the completed Parkway. A 2018 NDOT study found that bypasses usually have little effect on a community.5 Furthermore, the analysis found that communities that are visitor destinations, like the CV, tend to benefit from these bypasses because road improvement projects make it easier to reach these places. The County should ensure that proper signage is installed such that passers-by would be aware of the services available on the alternate route through town. Another transportation issue mentioned was the lack of public transit. The area is currently served by the Douglas Area Rural Transit (“DART”).6 However, the bus lines only operate during certain parts of the day and several interviewees remarked on shortcomings in the system. County Funding One issue that the Team found to be a concern and that can disincentivize business attraction and economic growth in DC is that it is a so-called “guaranteed county.” This guaranteed can negatively impact business activity and economic growth because once a county grows beyond a certain population, its revenues per capita can potentially decline. In 1982, the Nevada Legislature reduced property tax rates across the state.7 In addition to the reduction, property taxes rates that could be levied by county and local governments were capped. In moving away from what are often characterized as “stable” property taxes to sales and use taxes, revenues to the state have become less 5 NDOT. May 2018. I‐11 Northern Nevada Alternatives Analysis: Potential Effects of Highway Bypasses on Local Communities. 6 Douglas Area Rural Transit. 7 Stoeckinger, Philip "Impacts of the tax shift of 1981: An examination of Nevada local governments" (2005). UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones. 512. http://dx.doi.org/10.34917/1647618 ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-7 stable. The reasoning by the Nevada Legislature to become more dependent upon sales taxes was that tourists would pay more into Nevada’s revenues, lessening the burden on residents. However, it was found that many of Nevada’s county economies did not have sufficient commercial sales and use tax generating economic sectors to sustain their operations. Douglas County was one of those counties. Therefore, certain counties, including Douglas County, were designated as “guaranteed’ counties in terms of the Supplementary City-County Tax Relief sales tax rate. This means that Douglas County receives a certain amount of revenue regardless of the taxable sales revenues generated in the county. A county could apply to waive its guaranteed status if their countywide sales collections exceed their guaranteed amount by more than 10 percent for 12 consecutive months.8 The guaranteed counties in Nevada are Douglas, Esmeralda, Lander, Lincoln, Lyon, Mineral, Pershing and White Pine counties.9 Uneven Demand Demand in the region is overly concentrated in the weekends. As a sign of this demand problem, over the weekends throughout most of the year, hotels are at capacity. However, during the weekdays, there is a large drop-off in vacancy. This drop-off in visitors and business activity were echoed throughout the Interviews. The consensus was that community leaders should look for opportunities to increase demand for the Study Area’s services during the week to make new hotel construction more appealing to developers. C. Recommendations Main Recommendations Based on the Consultant Team’s expertise in economic development, regional economic analysis and data science as well as the literature review and the Interviews, we have developed a set of high-level recommendations and tactics that should allow for enhanced economic growth in the Carson Valley as well as DMG. • Revisit restrictive regulatory policies o Streamline permitting for small retail and service businesses where possible • Study and address high-fixed costs associated with new development permitting to make sure they are line with the cost structure of neighboring communities • Improve messaging and advertising relative to outdoor activities and amenities 8 Nevada Revised Status. (2005). “2005 Nevada Revised Statues-Chapter 377-City-County Relief Taxation.” Retrieved from; 9 Nevada Legislature Fiscal Analysis Division. Revenue Reference Manual. Jan 2021. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-8 • Encourage development of deluxe non-gaming accommodations in Study Area • Allow for mixed-use (commercial/residential) zoning in Downtown Minden and Downtown Gardnerville • Improve community outreach to promote conservation easements • Protect historical buildings • Improve road quality and walkability o Complete Muller Parkway to remove non-truck through-traffic from the Downtown Area o Look for opportunities in the future to narrow US Hwy 395 in the Downtown Area, and identify alternatives for truck traffic ▪ Use new space for parking, and/or ▪ Widen sidewalks and offer patio space to new and existing property owners • Consider setting up a “commercial owners’ association”10 in the Downtown Area o Institute design standards in Study Area to create architectural motif matching protected historical buildings o Add conspicuous, aesthetically-pleasing signage for areas and sites of interest, including Downtown Minden and Downtown Gardnerville Minden-Gardnerville Retail Enhancement Micro-Tactics If not already being done or initiated, the Consultant Team recommends the following “micro-tactics” be considered by Douglas County and the Towns of Minden and Gardnerville and Main Street Gardnerville. 1. Create a Minden group/team like Main Street Gardnerville’s District Vitality Committee that works to strengthen the downtown’s existing economic assets while expanding and diversifying its economic base. 2. Both groups should develop a close working association with the Douglas County Economic Vitality Program, Carson Valley Chamber of Commerce, local and state tourism authorities, utility companies and others. Work closely with the Nevada Small Business Development Center. Coordinate a quarterly meeting with the heads of these organizations to remain aware of stay of each other’s activities. 3. If not already being done, each group should prepare a fiscal-year work plan that describes the goals, mission, projects and explicit tasks. Prepare a budget and timeline for each task. Delegate the projects as needed and as possible. 10 These organizations are like homeowners’ associations but apply to commercial property owners. They can provide a market- based mechanism for funding and enforcing desirable attributes in a commercial zone, as opposed to government-funded solutions like redevelopment districts or tax-increment financing districts. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-9 4. Identify common examples of challenges downtown businesses face in the permitting process. Identify challenges and issues with perpetually vacant buildings. Develop potential recommended solutions. Present the information to the Town Boards and the County. 5. Convene joint town meetings in the Minden-Gardnerville Downtown Area (“the Downtown Area”). Help establish revitalization priorities for the area. Record and, if possible, transcribe the meetings to ensure that all feedback and comments are properly accounted for. 6. Develop a brochures describing Downtown Area’s revitalization strategies. 7. Work with local lenders to help understand their commitment to do Downtown Area revitalization. 8. Instruct the relevant range of stakeholders and community groups concerning the critical nature of the Downtown Areas. 9. If appropriate, fund "coffee breaks" each month for Downtown Area businesses to discuss revitalization activities and issues impacting them. Alternate the setting between businesses. 10. In coordination with the Chamber of Commerce, determine the Downtown Area brand(s) identity. Develop a slogan and encourage all businesses in the Downtown Area to use it. Create an instantly recognizable logo that symbolizes downtown. Make sure the logo is easy to use and will be able to meet various graphic needs. Use it on stationery, newspaper ads, posters, flyers, etc. 11. Enhance preservation planning by Douglas County taking the lead in applying for Certified Local Government (CLG) status. CLG status can protect the Downtown Area and can make available project funding. As relevant, work with the Nevada State Historic Preservation Office. 12. Prepare an inventory of Downtown Area buildings asap with a focus on buildings with empty space. In the case of buildings or space that is rehabbed, it would be helpful for marketing them to take before and after photographs. Include size, ownership, rents and availability. 13. Sponsor a design workshop that informs building owners, contractors and interested parties about creative renovation concepts and ideas. 14. Foster renovation of buildings that values the history of individual buildings and the Downtown Area. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-10 15. Take part in the national Historic Preservation Week held in April-May. Visit the website of the National Trust for Historic Preservation website ideas and news. 16. Make available state and federal incentive and loan program information previously employed effectively by other region for revitalization projects. 17. Develop an incentive program that supports small physical upgrades to Downtown Area buildings like new or repaired signage, awnings/window treatments and/or paint. 18. Regularly conduct Downtown Area walking tours to fully understand the Downtown Area and to identify issues requiring attention. 19. Coordinate with building and property owners and managers to clean and maintain vacant buildings. 20. Urge Downtown Area businesses to replaced window displays often, and to make sure they are lit Help business owners on the significance of eye-catching window fronts. This could be done by arranging an interior merchandising and window display workshop. 21. Add appealing displays in vacant windows. This could be done in conjunction with the local historical society, other local organizations, school classes or other merchants and businesses. 22. Remove signage/hardware, which do not serve existing businesses anymore. 23. Help Downtown Area business owners with suitable awnings and signs. As needed, add awning and sign sections to the design guidelines. 24. Exchange any hand-lettered signs with upgraded graphics. 25. Identify a building, which could be significantly enhanced with a moderate investment This could include repairing broken windows, fixing or removing damaged awnings and fixing broken signs. 26. Conduct an inventory of streetscape features like benches, trash receptacles and trees. What is the adequacy of street lighting? Prepare a plan for future enhancements. 27. Highlight a new building facade and interior makeover. Conduct a tour of a superior interior restoration or upper floor renovation. Publish a picture of a well-done facade rehab via social media and the local media. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-11 28. Evaluate the Downtown Area’s parking capacity. Determine the number of parking spaces. As needed, and upgrade and add direction signage to public parking lots. Prepare a voluntary agreement with Downtown Area businesses and their employees to reserve prime parking places for customers. 29. Organize an image marketing campaign that focuses on the Downtown Area’s assets and 30. Assess how existing Downtown Area businesses complement each other. 31. Quantify the number of individuals employed in the Downtown Area. Downtown might be one of Carson Valley’s biggest employer clusters. 32. Create an online directory of Downtown Area companies to highlight the broad range of retailers, service providers as well as professional and government offices in the Downtown Area. This should also include an online map and information on parking lots. Use social and traditional media to promote the directory. This could be coordinated with the Chamber of Commerce. 33. Meet with area realtors and commercial brokers to advise them about the Downtown Area particularly about available Downtown Area properties. 34. Work with the County’s Community Development Department to offer resources to Downtown Area Businesses to answer common development questions. Create an online “library” information about revitalization resources that can be shared with and used by businesses, the general community and interested parties. 35. Develop financial proformas to improve vacant buildings using industry averages and publicly available costing metrics. Rents will drive how much can be spent on building renovations. 36. Urge Downtown Area businesses to use standardized hours of operation and expand store hours to increase convenience to customers who may want shop on their way home from work. 37. Regularly track Downtown Area vacancies so that this information can be shared with business prospects. Tracking vacancies with the help of the local commercial real estate professionals can be helping in creating a business expansion, recruitment and retention strategy. 38. As necessary, streamline the County’s permitting processes to enhance the attractiveness of the Downtown Area to investors. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE IV-12 39. Renovate upper floors of buildings for services, office space, or housing. Upper floor housing increases a downtown's customer-base. 40. Identify and seek resources to assist property owners about considering ways to partition their rentable space into smaller spaces when their leasable space is larger than 1,000 sq. ft. Typically, smaller retail businesses are potentially more profitable if spaces 1,000 sq. ft. or less. ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE A-1 A. APPENDIX he following descriptions were provided by ESRI. These are brief descriptions of each LifeMode group as defined by ESRI.1 The information below also includes the relative share that each LifeMode group represents in the PMA and SMA. LifeMode 1 Affluent Estates: PMA-4.5% & SMA-16.6% • Established wealth—educated, well-traveled married couples • Accustomed to "more": less than 10% of all households, with 20% of household income • Homeowners (almost 90%), with mortgages (65.2%) • Married couple families with children ranging from grade school to college • Expect quality; invest in time-saving services • Participate actively in their communities • Active in sports and enthusiastic travelers LifeMode 2 Upscale Avenues: PMA-0.0% & SMA-0.7% • Prosperous married couples living in older suburban enclaves • Ambitious and hard-working • Homeowners (70%) prefer denser, more urban settings with older homes and a large share of townhomes • A more diverse population, primarily married couples, many with older children • Financially responsible, but still indulge in casino gambling and lotto tickets • Serious shoppers, from to Marshalls or DSW, that appreciate quality, and bargains • Active in fitness pursuits like bicycling, jogging, yoga, and hiking • Subscribe to premium movie channels like HBO and Starz LifeMode 4 Family Landscapes: PMA-12.7% & SMA-8.9% • Successful young families in their first homes • Non-diverse, prosperous married-couple families, residing in suburban or semirural areas with a low vacancy rate (second lowest) • Homeowners (79%) with mortgages (second highest living in newer single-family homes, with median home value higher than the U.S. • Two workers in the family, contributing to the second highest labor force participation rate, as well as low unemployment • Do-it-yourselfers, who work on home improvement projects, as well as their lawns and gardens • Sports enthusiasts, typically owning newer sedans or SUVs, dogs, and savings accounts/plans, comfortable with the latest technology • Eat out frequently at fast food or family restaurants to accommodate their busy lifestyle • Especially enjoy bowling, swimming, playing golf, playing video games, watching movies rented via Redbox, and taking trips to a zoo or theme park LifeMode 5 GenXurban: PMA: 39.8% & SMA-23.7% • Gen X in middle age; families with fewer kids and a mortgage • Second largest Tapestry group, comprised of Gen X married couples, and a growing population of retirees • About a fifth of residents are 65 or older; about a fourth of households have retirement income • Own older single-family homes in urban areas, with 1 or 2 vehicles • Live and work in the same county, creating shorter commute times • Invest wisely, well-insured, comfortable banking online or in person 1 Tapestry Segmentation. ESRI, 2020. T ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE A-2 • News junkies (read a daily newspaper, watch news on TV, and go online for news) • Enjoy reading, renting movies, playing board games and cards, doing crossword puzzles, going to museums and rock concerts, dining out, and walking for exercise LifeMode 6 Cozy Country Living: PMA-4.7% & SMA-11.0% • Empty nesters in bucolic settings • Largest Tapestry group, almost half of households located in the Midwest • Homeowners with pets, residing in single-family dwellings in rural areas; almost 30% have 3 or more vehicles and, therefore, auto loans • Politically conservative and believe in the importance of buying American • Own domestic trucks, and ATVs/UTVs • Prefer to eat at home, shop at discount retail stores (especially Walmart), bank in person, and spend little time online • Own every tool and piece of equipment imaginable to maintain their homes, vehicles, vegetable gardens, and lawns • Listen to country music, watch auto racing on TV, and play the lottery; enjoy outdoor activities, such as fishing, hunting, camping, boating, and even bird watching LifeMode 7 Ethnic Enclaves: PMA-0.0% & SMA-4.9% • Established diversity—young, Hispanic homeowners with families • Multilingual and multigenerational households feature children that represent second-, third- or fourth- generation Hispanic families • Neighborhoods feature single-family, owner-occupied homes built at city's edge, primarily built after 1980 • Hard-working and optimistic, most residents aged 25 years or older have a high school diploma or some college education • Shopping and leisure also focus on their children—baby and children's products from shoes to toys and games and trips to theme parks, water parks or the zoo • Residents favor Hispanic programs on radio or television; children enjoy playing video games on personal computers, handheld or console devices • Many households have dogs for domestic pets LifeMode 8 Middle Ground: PMA-0.0% & SMA-12.4% • Lifestyles of thirtysomethings • Millennials in the middle: single/married, renters/homeowners, middle class/working class • Urban market mix of single-family, townhome, and multi-unit dwellings • Majority of residents attended college or attained a college degree • Householders have ditched their landlines for cell phones, which they use to listen to music (generally contemporary hits), read the news, and get the latest sports updates of their favorite teams • Online all the time: use the Internet for entertainment (downloading music, watching YouTube, finding dates), social media (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn), search for employment • Leisure includes night life (clubbing, movies), going to the beach, some travel and hiking LifeMode 9 Senior Styles: PMA-29.7% & SMA-8.2% • Senior lifestyles reveal the effects of saving for retirement • Households are commonly married empty nesters or singles living alone; homes are single-family (including seasonal getaways), retirement communities, or high-rise apartments • More affluent seniors travel and relocate to warmer climates; less affluent, settled seniors are still working toward retirement • Cell phones are popular, but so are landlines • Many still prefer print to digital media: Avid readers of newspapers, to stay current • Subscribe to cable television to watch channels like Fox News, CNN, and The Weather Channel • Residents prefer vitamins to increase their mileage and a regular exercise regimen ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE A-3 LifeMode 10 Rustic Outposts: PMA-5.0% & SMA-5.0% • Country life with older families in older homes • Rustic Outposts depend on manufacturing, retail and healthcare, with pockets of mining and agricultural jobs • Low labor force participation in skilled and service occupations • Own affordable, older single-family or mobile homes; vehicle ownership, a must • Residents live within their means, shop at discount stores and maintain their own vehicles (purchased used) and homes • Outdoor enthusiasts, who grow their own vegetables, love their pets and enjoy hunting and fishing • Technology is cost prohibitive and complicated. Pay bills in person, use the yellow pages, read newspapers, magazines, and mail-order books LifeMode 11 Midtown Singles: PMA-3.6% & SMA-7.5% • Millennials on the move—single, diverse, urban • Millennials seeking affordable rents in apartment buildings • Work in service and unskilled positions, usually close to home or public transportation • Single parents depend on their paycheck to buy supplies for their very young children • Midtown Singles embrace the Internet, for social networking and downloading content • From music and movies to soaps and sports, radio and television fill their lives • Brand savvy shoppers select budget friendly stores LifeMode 12 Hometown: PMA-0.0% & SMA-0.8% • Growing up and staying close to home; single householders • Close knit urban communities of young singles (many with children) • Owners of old, single-family houses, or renters in small multi-unit buildings • Religion is the cornerstone of many of these communities • Visit discount stores and clip coupons, frequently play the lottery at convenience stores • Canned, packaged and frozen foods help to make ends meet • Purchase used vehicles to get them to and from nearby jobs LifeMode 13 Next Wave: PMA-0.0% & SMA-0.4% • Urban denizens, young, diverse, hard-working families • Extremely diverse with a Hispanic majority, the highest among LifeMode groups • A large share are foreign born and speak only their native language • Young, or multigenerational, families with children are typical • Most are renters in older multi-unit structures, built in the 1960s or earlier • Hard-working with long commutes to jobs, often utilizing public transit to commute to work • Spending reflects the youth of these consumers, focus on children (top market for children's apparel) and personal appearance • Also, a top market for movie goers (second only to college students) and fast food • Partial to soccer and basketball ---PAGE BREAK--- ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS & MARKETING STRATEGY: DOWNTOWN MINDEN & GARDNERVILLE A-4 LifeMode 14 Scholars and Patriots: PMA-0.0% & SMA-0.0% • College and military populations that share many traits due to the transitional nature of this LifeMode Group • Highly mobile, recently moved to attend school or serve in military • The youngest market group, with a majority in the 15- to 24-year-old range • Renters with roommates in nonfamily households • For many, no vehicle is necessary as they live close to campus, military base or jobs • Fast-growing group with most living in apartments • Part-time jobs help to supplement active lifestyles • Millennials are tethered to their phones and electronic devices, typically spending over 5 hours online everyday tweeting, blogging, and consuming media • Purchases aimed at fitness, fashion, technology and the necessities of moving