Document Loudoun_doc_c7b2ae2547

2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal Assumptions and Forecasts Loudoun County Board of Supervisors Fiscal Impact Committee Loudoun County, Virginia October 2009 ---PAGE BREAK--- Fiscal Impact Committee Members Jim Burton, Loudoun County Board of Supervisors Sam C. Adamo, Loudoun County Public Schools Michael Capretti Steven J. DeLong, DeLong Development LLC Ed Gorski, Piedmont Environmental Council Leonard S. (Hobie) Mitchel, Lansdowne Community Development LLC Charles E. Schonder, III Jack Winters Staff Support Jill Allmon, Department of Management and Financial Services Robyn Bailey, Department of Economic Development Jack Brown, Department of Management and Financial Services Leslie Hansbarger, Office of the County Administrator Beth Hilkemeyer, Department of Management and Financial Services Benjamin Mays, Department of Management and Financial Services Tricia Simons, Department of Economic Development County of Loudoun 1 Harrison Street SE PO Box 7000 Leesburg, VA 20177 (703)777-0200 ---PAGE BREAK--- 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Executive Summary The Fiscal Impact Committee’s 2009 Guidelines (formerly the Annual Update) reflect the review and analysis of key assumptions that significantly affect residential and nonresidential forecasts for Loudoun County. This year, after a careful analysis of regional and local trends and supporting information, changes to both development forecasts and demographic and economic assumptions were made. Long-range forecasts were also extended to 2040. While developing its long-range forecasts for residential and nonresidential development, the Committee considered current market conditions and the long-run supply of land. Regarding residential development, the Committee reduced the expected maximum number of residential permits per year from 4,500 to 3,500. The Committee also reduced the overall number of single-family detached units to be built through 2040, based on concerns that the Rt. 15 North, Rt. 15 South, Northwest, and Southwest planning subareas would otherwise absorb new units too rapidly. In the near term, the Committee anticipates diminished residential development levels through 2013. Nonresidential permitting is expected to be low during 2009 and 2010, with a slow recovery until mid-decade. As with previous forecasts, the annual number of new residential units is expected to decline as land available for residential development becomes scarce. Future residential units were distributed with consideration of the build out capacity in the planning subareas. Research on the Leesburg planning subarea (noted as needed in the 2007 Guidelines) led to a reduction in residential units. Consistent with the COG Round 7.2 forecast, limited redevelopment in the Potomac and Sterling subareas is included in this forecast, along with some residential units along Route 28. In addition to providing long-range forecasts, the Committee also reviews demographic and economic factors. The 2009 Guidelines includes an update to the school age children per household factors, which were set based on the 2008 school census. Household sizes and residential long- run property appreciation factors were also updated. The 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines will form the basis for the forecasts submitted to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) as part of the Round 8.0 regional demographic update. Employment figures may be adjusted somewhat based on ongoing staff research on employment in 2005 and 2008. At the planning subarea level, housing unit, household, and population figures will be adjusted to be consistent with data now available in the County’s Geographic Information System and small changes to planning subarea boundaries approved by the Committee. These boundary changes occurred between the Route 7 West and Northwest, Route 7 West and Southwest, Route 15 North and Leesburg, and Dulles and Ashburn planning subareas. County-wide housing unit, household, and population figures will not change. The following figures provide a visual depiction of the intermediate scenario. ---PAGE BREAK--- 200 000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 Forecasted Population 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee, Intermediate Scenario Number of Persons 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ---PAGE BREAK--- 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 Forecasted Housing Units 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee, Intermediate Scenario Total Housing Units 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ---PAGE BREAK--- 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Forecasted Housing Units by Type 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee, Intermediate Scenario Housing Units - SFD Housing Units - SFA Housing Units - MF Total Housing Units 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ---PAGE BREAK--- 40 000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 Forecasted School Enrollment 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee, Intermediate Scenario Public School Enrollment 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ---PAGE BREAK--- 0.87 0.51 School Age Children by Housing Type 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached Multi-family 0.26 School Age Children per Household ---PAGE BREAK--- 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Forecasted Employment 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee, Intermediate Scenario Number of Jobs 0 50,000 100,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ---PAGE BREAK--- 60 80 100 120 140 160 Forecasted Nonresidential SF (2005-2040) 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee, Intermediate Scenario SF Nonresidential Space (millions) 0 20 40 60 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ---PAGE BREAK--- 20 25 30 35 40 45 Forecasted Nonresidential SF by Type (2005-2040) 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee, Intermediate Scenario SF High Density Office SF Low Density Office SF Retail SF Other SF Light Industrial SF Heavy Industrial SF Nonresidential Space (millions) 0 5 10 15 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ---PAGE BREAK--- Table of Contents Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic and Economic 1 Table 2. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Revenues 4 Table 3. Summary of Approved Input and Assumptions Expenditures 5 Table 4. Countywide Intermediate Forecast Loudoun County, Virginia 6 Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, Virginia 7 Map of Loudoun County Planning Subareas Appendix A: Residential Analysis Table A-1. Residential Units Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2000 Table A-2(a). Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea Table A-2(b). Distribution Within Planning Subareas of Residential Building Permits Issued Table A-2(c). Countywide Distribution of Residential Building Permits Issued Table A-3. Residential Units by Planning Subarea Table A-4. Estimated Maximum New Units Without Redevelopment, 2000 Baseline Table A-5. Alternative Forecasts of Residential Building Permits Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2008 Table A-7(a). Residential Mix by Planning Subarea: Percentage Distribution Within Subarea Table A-7(b). Residential Mix by Planning Subarea: Countywide Percentage Distribution Table A-8 Residential Vacancy Rate Assumptions Table A-9(a). Distribution of Future Residential Growth by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Table A-9(b). New Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Table A-9(c). Cumulative Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Table A-10. Value of New Residential Units, 2009 Appendix B: Nonresidential Analysis Table B-1. Cumulative Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage Table B-2. Trends in Nonresidential Vacancy Table B-3. Nonresidential Vacancy Rate Assumptions Table B-4. Analysis of Employees per 1,000 SF Table B-5. Alternative Nonresidential Forecasts Table B-6. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available), 2008 Table B-7. Future Mix of New Nonresidential Square Footage Per Year Table B-8. Nonresidential Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2009 Table B-9. Future Distribution of Nonresidential Space by Type and Planning Subarea, 2040 Table B-10(a). Future Distribution of New Nonresidential Permits: Planning Subarea Table B-10(b). Future Distribution of New Nonresidential Permits: Type Table B-11. Value of Commercial Property, 2009 Appendix C: Analysis of Other Demographic and Economic Factors Table C-1. September Public School Enrollment Trends Table C-2. Personal and Per capita Income Analysis Table C-3(a). Land Values, 2009: Vacant Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Land Table C-3(b). Land Values, 2009: Agricultural Land, Parcels 20 Acres and Larger ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Assumptions and Forecasts ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Approved Inputs Variable 2009 Source/Comments Variable 2009 Source/Comments Residential Components Single-Family Detached Multi-family Number of Units 57,407 2009 housing units Number of Units 17,178 2009 housing units Household Size (Occupied Units) 3.27 FIC, 12/10/08 Household Size (Occupied Units) 1.88 FIC, 12/10/08 School Age Children/New Household 0.87 2008 School Census School Age Children/New Household 0.26 2008 School Census Long-Run Vacancy Rate 4.8% Table A-8 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 12.0% Table A-8 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0.5% beginning during 2011 FIC, 7/13/09 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0.5% beginning during 2011 FIC, 7/13/09 Property Value (New Units) $545,186 Table A-10 Property Value (New Units) $260,529 Table A-10 Single-Family Attached Number of Units 31,328 2009 housing units Household Size (Occupied Units) 2.75 FIC, 12/10/08 School Age Children/New Household 0.51 2008 School Census Long-Run Vacancy Rate 5.6% Table A-8 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0.5% beginning during 2011 FIC, 7/13/09 Property Value (New Units) $402,307 Table A-10 Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic and Economic 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Approved Inputs Variable 2009 Source/Comments Variable 2009 Source/Comments Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic and Economic Nonresidential Components High Density Office Other Square Feet (000s)* 1,571,534 cumulative through 2008 Square Feet (000s)* 21,713,688 cumulative through 2008 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 3.40 Table B-4 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.19 Table B-4 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 10% Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 5% Table B-3 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% beginning during 2014 FIC, 7/20/09 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% beginning during 2014 FIC, 7/20/09 Property Value (New Square Feet) $211 Table B-11 Property Value (New Square Feet) N/A Low Density Office Heavy Industrial Square Feet (000s)* 14,752,907 cumulative through 2008 Square Feet (000s)* 19,584 cumulative through 2008 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 3.17 Table B-4 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.83 Table B-4 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 9% Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate N/A Table B-3 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% beginning during 2014 FIC, 7/20/09 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% beginning during 2014 FIC, 7/20/09 Property Value (New Square Feet) $211 Table B-11 Property Value (New Square Feet) N/A Retail Light Industrial Square Feet (000s)* 14,309,764 cumulative through 2008 Square Feet (000s)* 22,279,539 cumulative through 2008 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.50 Table B-4 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 2.15 Table B-4 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 8% Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 11% Table B-3 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% beginning during 2014 FIC, 7/20/09 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% beginning during 2014 FIC, 7/20/09 Property Value (New Square Feet) $196 Table B-11 Property Value (New Square Feet) $108 Table B-11 * cumulative permitted SF through 2008 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Approved Inputs Variable 2009 Source/Comments Variable 2009 Source/Comments Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic and Economic Other Inputs Number of Children in Public Schools 57,009 Sept 30 2008 Enrollment Undeveloped Land Value (millions) $3,944 Table C-3(a) Per Capita Personal Income $49,691 Staff forecast Agricultural Land Value (millions)* $2,102 Table C-3(b) * use value 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 3. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Variable 2009 Source/Comments Local Revenues (000s) Real Property Taxes $605,351,935 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR Public Service Property Taxes $16,386,619 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedules 1 and 3 Personal Property Taxes $88,764,356 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR (includes machinery and tools taxes) Property Penalties & Interest $4,064,227 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR Sales Tax $47,886,216 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR Consumer Utility Tax $16,459,421 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR Business License Tax $25,464,522 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR Development Related Permits $14,194,214 FY 08 Actual, Department of Management and Financial Services Other Local Revenues $64,918,578 FY 08 Actual, Department of Management and Financial Services State Revenues (000s) Sales Tax for Education $46,126,588 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) Basic Aid $78,844,603 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) Other State Education Aid $32,231,323 FY 08 Actual, LCPS and Dept. of Management and Financial Services Other State Categorical Aid $12,563,147 FY 08 Actual, Department of Management and Financial Services Personal Property Tax Reimbursement $48,070,701 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR State Other $22,400,755 FY 08 Actual, Department of Management and Financial Services Federal Revenues (000s) Federal Categorical $11,511,684 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR Federal Other $1,769 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR Tax Rates Residential Property Tax Rate General Fund $1.245 TY 09, Loudoun County FY 2010 Adopted Fiscal Plan Personal Property Tax Rate $4.20 TY 09, Loudoun County FY 2010 Adopted Fiscal Plan Sales Tax Rate 5.0% TY 09, Loudoun County FY 2010 Adopted Fiscal Plan Sources: 2008 CAFR Schedule 1, Loudoun County 2008 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report Loudoun County Public Schools Data provided on April 22, 2009. Loudoun County FY 2010 Adopted Fiscal Plan Executive Summary and Revenue Chapter. Table 2. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Revenues 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Variable 2009 Source/Comments Operating Expenditures ($000's) Government Administration $52,294,062 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedule 1 Judicial Administration $10,853,263 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedule 1 Public Safety $126,809,022 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedules 1 and 3 Public Works $21,090,731 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedule 1 Health & Welfare $62,348,074 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedule 1 Education $714,213,705 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedule 33 Parks, Recreation & Cultural $40,969,096 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedule 1 Community Development $26,954,092 FY 08 Actual, Loudoun County 2008 CAFR, Schedule 1 Total $1,055,532,045 Source: 2008 CAFR Loudoun County 2008 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report Table 3. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Expenditures 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 5. ---PAGE BREAK--- Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Forecast 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Households 59,900 65,357 69,400 74,703 81,258 87,477 92,795 95,659 98,181 99,837 102,032 Population 169,599 185,120 196,314 211,146 229,429 247,311 262,647 271,177 278,591 283,315 289,362 Employment 95,412 106,183 107,330 117,570 123,383 130,308 137,011 142,278 146,226 149,113 151,924 Housing Units Total 62,160 68,523 73,005 78,794 85,851 92,443 98,246 101,359 104,102 105,913 108,345 Single-Family Detached 35,929 38,609 40,436 43,310 46,626 50,124 53,275 55,161 56,603 57,407 58,250 Single-Family Attached 17,389 19,766 21,344 22,952 25,199 27,199 28,756 29,626 30,622 31,328 32,036 Multi-family 8,842 10,148 11,225 12,532 14,026 15,120 16,215 16,572 16,877 17,178 18,059 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Households 103,663 105,572 107,658 109,999 112,556 115,108 118,092 121,094 124,100 127,281 130,601 Population 294,106 299,366 304,956 311,189 317,911 324,854 332,768 340,722 348,692 357,049 365,801 Employment 154,829 158,563 163,303 169,507 175,776 182,954 190,575 198,196 206,464 214,743 222,535 Housing Units Total 110,094 112,144 114,394 116,924 119,694 122,452 125,677 128,922 132,172 135,622 139,222 Single-Family Detached 58,990 59,780 60,570 61,470 62,420 63,445 64,535 65,630 66,730 68,030 69,430 Single-Family Attached 32,796 33,556 34,316 35,096 35,896 36,696 37,746 38,796 39,846 40,646 41,446 Multi-family 18,308 18,808 19,508 20,358 21,378 22,311 23,396 24,496 25,596 26,946 28,346 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Households 133,679 136,673 139,419 141,877 143,956 145,654 147,281 148,855 150,234 151,371 152,436 Population 374,188 382,267 389,776 396,420 401,980 406,433 410,725 414,853 418,348 421,299 424,017 Employment 229,065 234,764 239,992 244,382 248,685 253,014 257,370 261,370 264,975 267,953 270,927 Housing Units Total 142,550 145,785 148,745 151,405 153,660 155,510 157,280 158,995 160,505 161,745 162,910 Single-Family Detached 70,815 72,200 73,555 74,835 75,960 76,850 77,720 78,550 79,185 79,760 80,260 Single-Family Attached 42,221 42,971 43,646 44,046 44,246 44,346 44,446 44,531 44,606 44,671 44,736 Multi-family 29,514 30,614 31,544 32,524 33,454 34,314 35,114 35,914 36,714 37,314 37,914 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Households 153,338 154,168 154,993 155,762 156,495 157,195 157,772 158,308 Population 426,320 428,477 430,618 432,587 434,483 436,269 437,760 439,147 Employment 273,695 276,461 279,225 281,985 284,744 287,500 290,253 293,007 Housing Units Total 163,895 164,800 165,700 166,540 167,340 168,105 168,735 169,320 Single-Family Detached 80,680 81,090 81,495 81,860 82,220 82,545 82,820 83,075 Single-Family Attached 44,801 44,866 44,931 44,981 45,031 45,081 45,131 45,181 Multi-family 38,414 38,844 39,274 39,699 40,089 40,479 40,784 41,064 Note: Housing unit totals may not equal the sum of Single-Family Detached, Single-Family Attached, and Multi-family due to rounding. Table 4. Countywide Intermediate Forecast Loudoun County, Virginia 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 6. ---PAGE BREAK--- Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Housing Units 62,160 92,443 98,246 101,359 104,102 105,913 108,345 119,694 135,622 151,405 160,505 165,700 169,320 Ashburn 12,007 24,875 26,949 28,177 29,211 29,939 31,097 35,758 41,593 46,025 48,265 49,164 49,839 Dulles 3,006 8,630 10,204 11,178 12,131 12,841 13,680 18,041 24,319 30,328 32,390 33,077 33,427 Leesburg 11,940 17,558 18,159 18,428 18,640 18,754 19,041 20,028 21,211 22,358 23,118 23,759 24,252 Northwest 2,432 3,044 3,250 3,396 3,488 3,536 3,574 3,809 4,156 4,806 5,666 6,545 7,185 Potomac 13,724 15,204 15,386 15,436 15,525 15,582 15,582 15,634 15,639 15,716 15,994 16,084 16,292 Route 15 North 964 1,238 1,390 1,487 1,586 1,624 1,654 1,777 2,002 2,452 2,952 3,277 3,539 Route 15 South 938 1,063 1,117 1,183 1,265 1,301 1,346 1,572 1,822 2,122 2,422 2,640 2,758 Route 7 West 4,468 6,565 7,029 7,262 7,408 7,453 7,478 7,721 8,517 9,733 10,612 10,963 11,191 Southwest 2,698 3,001 3,074 3,109 3,137 3,171 3,179 3,231 3,393 3,513 3,748 4,048 4,348 Sterling 9,983 11,265 11,688 11,703 11,711 11,712 11,714 12,123 12,970 14,352 15,338 16,143 16,489 Households 59,900 87,477 92,795 95,659 98,181 99,837 102,032 112,556 127,281 141,877 150,234 154,993 158,308 Ashburn 11,509 23,096 24,989 26,109 27,053 27,715 28,740 33,007 38,318 42,316 44,289 45,080 45,674 Dulles 2,886 8,126 9,587 10,492 11,372 12,025 12,805 16,904 22,770 28,384 30,280 30,897 31,205 Leesburg 11,480 16,756 17,309 17,550 17,747 17,853 18,106 19,016 20,113 21,190 21,910 22,489 22,925 Northwest 2,323 2,901 3,094 3,230 3,315 3,360 3,396 3,619 3,949 4,568 5,387 6,223 6,833 Potomac 13,437 14,732 14,893 14,939 15,017 15,065 15,065 15,111 15,116 15,184 15,438 15,523 15,719 Route 15 North 908 1,164 1,306 1,397 1,489 1,524 1,552 1,669 1,884 2,312 2,788 3,097 3,347 Route 15 South 879 998 1,048 1,110 1,186 1,220 1,262 1,477 1,715 2,000 2,286 2,493 2,606 Route 7 West 4,282 6,267 6,700 6,917 7,053 7,095 7,119 7,349 8,105 9,261 10,098 10,432 10,649 Southwest 2,454 2,713 2,781 2,813 2,840 2,869 2,877 2,926 3,077 3,191 3,415 3,700 3,986 Sterling 9,742 10,724 11,088 11,102 11,109 11,110 11,112 11,478 12,236 13,471 14,344 15,057 15,365 Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, Virginia 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 7. ---PAGE BREAK--- Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, Virginia Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Population 169,599 247,311 262,647 271,177 278,591 283,315 289,362 317,911 357,049 396,420 418,348 430,618 439,147 Ashburn 33,581 65,095 70,472 73,689 76,387 78,229 80,647 91,298 103,998 113,025 116,764 118,251 119,368 Dulles 7,795 22,922 27,311 30,042 32,616 34,503 36,843 48,741 65,269 81,297 86,260 87,604 88,183 Leesburg 31,840 47,189 48,787 49,440 50,046 50,370 51,208 53,661 56,667 59,867 62,147 63,493 64,342 Northwest 6,499 8,311 8,938 9,381 9,656 9,797 9,913 10,628 11,697 13,720 16,398 19,134 21,126 Potomac 39,115 42,613 42,977 43,106 43,280 43,373 43,373 43,465 43,480 43,617 44,219 44,456 44,999 Route 15 North 2,506 3,311 3,775 4,069 4,360 4,473 4,565 4,946 5,646 7,047 8,604 9,615 10,431 Route 15 South 2,403 2,775 2,940 3,141 3,389 3,499 3,636 4,331 5,106 6,040 6,974 7,653 8,020 Route 7 West 12,354 18,342 19,747 20,458 20,903 21,041 21,117 21,852 24,201 27,877 30,613 31,706 32,416 Southwest 6,056 6,858 7,080 7,183 7,265 7,339 7,364 7,522 7,940 8,313 9,045 9,979 10,913 Sterling 27,450 29,897 30,621 30,666 30,688 30,690 30,696 31,466 33,045 35,617 37,324 38,728 39,349 Employment 95,412 130,308 137,011 142,278 146,226 149,113 151,924 175,776 214,743 244,382 264,975 279,225 293,007 Ashburn 34,108 50,827 54,645 56,440 57,975 60,581 61,866 71,676 86,208 98,098 107,244 114,256 121,061 Dulles 16,348 22,069 23,163 26,049 27,487 24,502 25,136 31,774 42,704 51,268 55,761 57,937 60,049 Leesburg 11,850 17,029 17,600 17,585 17,983 20,160 20,541 23,958 29,987 34,393 37,884 40,424 42,886 Northwest 540 629 646 652 656 715 744 775 950 1,012 1,084 1,151 1,201 Potomac 5,145 6,716 6,806 6,780 6,762 6,821 6,878 7,022 7,175 7,353 7,487 7,467 7,464 Route 15 North 208 223 240 250 256 266 269 293 335 384 433 464 490 Route 15 South 169 187 196 211 223 256 262 294 338 376 410 433 450 Route 7 West 2,422 3,874 4,008 4,107 4,140 4,317 4,460 5,659 7,341 8,785 9,773 10,491 11,183 Southwest 1,047 1,009 1,015 1,012 1,202 1,232 1,242 1,260 1,295 1,316 1,342 1,369 1,397 Sterling 23,568 27,741 28,692 29,192 29,539 30,261 30,525 33,065 38,411 41,396 43,559 45,231 46,827 Note: Totals may not equal the sum of the planning subareas due to rounding. 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 8. ---PAGE BREAK--- 50 15 15 7 9 287 28 267 7 Leesburg Purcellville Middleburg Round Hill Hamilton Hillsboro Lovettsville Washington Dulles International Airport Route 15 North Route 15 South Southwest Dulles Ashburn Potomac Sterling Leesburg Route 7 West Northwest P o t o m a c R i v e r Fauquier County, VA Prince William County, VA Clarke County, VA Jefferson County, WV Fairfax County, VA City of Fairfax Montgomery County, MD Frederick County, MD Washington County, MD Planning Subareas L o u d o u n C o u n t y ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix A: Residential Analysis ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Total SFD SFA MF Ashburn 12,007 5,540 4,341 2,126 Dulles 3,006 1,800 938 268 Leesburg 11,940 5,966 2,980 2,994 Northwest 2,432 2,333 88 11 Potomac 13,724 7,299 4,928 1,497 Route 15 North 964 933 13 18 Route 15 South 938 891 23 24 Route 7 West 4,468 3,860 433 175 Southwest 2,698 2,450 128 120 Sterling 9,983 4,857 3,517 1,609 Total 62,160 35,929 17,389 8,842 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000. Compiled by Loudoun County Government, Department of Planning. Table A-1. Residential Units Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2000 Number of Housing Units 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-1.. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Total 6,134 4,712 5,976 6,657 6,593 5,065 3,061 2,739 2,391 SFD 2,680 1,827 2,874 3,316 3,498 3,151 1,886 1,442 804 SFA 2,377 1,578 1,608 2,247 2,000 1,557 870 996 706 MF 1,077 1,307 1,494 1,094 1,095 357 305 301 881 Ashburn Total 2,395 1,817 3,275 2,444 2,854 1,825 1,171 996 1,270 SFD 657 486 1,253 1,209 1,337 1,118 659 499 274 SFA 1,040 546 634 820 1,019 458 320 343 300 MF 698 785 1,388 415 498 249 192 154 696 Dulles Total 679 504 651 2,148 1,507 1,556 1,031 968 638 SFD 351 250 368 925 884 793 500 404 296 SFA 286 254 255 818 605 763 474 492 342 MF 42 0 28 405 18 0 57 72 0 Leesburg Total 1,435 1,330 1,104 1,037 762 631 161 212 299 SFD 860 638 588 499 421 281 145 131 67 SFA 530 521 512 316 263 242 16 81 47 MF 45 171 4 222 78 108 0 0 185 Northwest Total 120 77 118 108 185 205 146 92 48 SFD 120 77 118 107 184 205 142 80 38 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 10 MF 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 Potomac Total 580 477 176 116 159 75 106 88 2 SFD 230 76 81 38 9 3 3 4 2 SFA 325 111 95 28 43 72 47 29 0 MF 25 290 0 50 107 0 56 55 0 Table A-2(a). Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Route 15 North Total 31 31 57 57 93 152 97 99 38 SFD 31 31 57 57 93 152 94 78 32 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 21 6 MF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 15 South Total 36 14 20 24 31 54 66 82 36 SFD 36 14 20 24 31 54 66 77 36 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 MF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 7 West Total 381 326 364 480 562 464 233 146 45 SFD 271 229 303 374 492 444 233 146 45 SFA 20 36 57 106 70 20 0 0 0 MF 90 61 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southwest Total 75 26 55 72 44 73 35 48 14 SFD 75 26 55 57 44 71 29 21 14 SFA 0 0 0 14 0 2 6 7 0 MF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 20 0 Sterling Total 402 110 156 171 396 30 15 8 1 SFD 49 0 31 26 3 30 15 2 0 SFA 176 110 55 145 0 0 0 6 1 MF 177 0 70 0 393 0 0 0 0 Source: Loudoun County Department of Building & Development. Compiled by: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table A-2(a). Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-3. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 44% 39% 48% 50% 53% 62% 62% 53% 34% SFA 39% 33% 27% 34% 30% 31% 28% 36% 30% MF 18% 28% 25% 16% 17% 7% 10% 11% 37% Ashburn Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 27% 27% 38% 49% 47% 61% 56% 50% 22% SFA 43% 30% 19% 34% 36% 25% 27% 34% 24% MF 29% 43% 42% 17% 17% 14% 16% 15% 55% Dulles Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 52% 50% 57% 43% 59% 51% 48% 42% 46% SFA 42% 50% 39% 38% 40% 49% 46% 51% 54% MF 6% 0% 4% 19% 1% 0% 6% 7% 0% Leesburg Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 60% 48% 53% 48% 55% 45% 90% 62% 22% SFA 37% 39% 46% 30% 35% 38% 10% 38% 16% MF 3% 13% 0% 21% 10% 17% 0% 0% 62% Northwest Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 97% 87% 79% SFA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 13% 21% MF 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Potomac Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 40% 16% 46% 33% 6% 4% 3% 5% 100% SFA 56% 23% 54% 24% 27% 96% 44% 33% 0% MF 4% 61% 0% 43% 67% 0% 53% 63% 0% Table A-2(b). Distribution Within Planning Subareas of Residential Building Permits Issued 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Route 15 North Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 84% SFA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 21% 16% MF 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 15 South Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 100% SFA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% MF 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 7 West Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 71% 70% 83% 78% 88% 96% 100% 100% 100% SFA 5% 11% 16% 22% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0% MF 24% 19% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Southwest Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 100% 100% 100% 79% 100% 97% 83% 44% 100% SFA 0% 0% 0% 19% 0% 3% 17% 15% 0% MF 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 42% 0% Sterling Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 12% 0% 20% 15% 1% 100% 100% 25% 0% SFA 44% 100% 35% 85% 0% 0% 0% 75% 100% MF 44% 0% 45% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% Source: Loudoun County Department of Building & Development. Compiled by: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table A-2(b). Distribution Within Planning Subareas of Residential Building Permits Issued 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-5. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ashburn 39% 39% 55% 37% 43% 36% 38% 36% 53% Dulles 11% 11% 11% 32% 23% 31% 34% 35% 27% Leesburg 23% 28% 18% 16% 12% 12% 5% 8% 13% Northwest 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 3% 2% Potomac 9% 10% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 0% Route 15 North 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 4% 2% Route 15 South 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2% Route 7 West 6% 7% 6% 7% 9% 9% 8% 5% 2% Southwest 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% Sterling 7% 2% 3% 3% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% SFD 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ashburn 25% 27% 44% 36% 38% 35% 35% 35% 34% Dulles 13% 14% 13% 28% 25% 25% 27% 28% 37% Leesburg 32% 35% 20% 15% 12% 9% 8% 9% 8% Northwest 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 7% 8% 6% 5% Potomac 9% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 15 North 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 5% 5% 4% Route 15 South 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 4% Route 7 West 10% 13% 11% 11% 14% 14% 12% 10% 6% Southwest 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% Sterling 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Table A-2(c). Countywide Distribution of Residential Building Permits Issued 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-6. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 SFA 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ashburn 44% 35% 39% 36% 51% 29% 37% 34% 42% Dulles 12% 16% 16% 36% 30% 49% 54% 49% 48% Leesburg 22% 33% 32% 14% 13% 16% 2% 8% 7% Northwest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Potomac 14% 7% 6% 1% 2% 5% 5% 3% 0% Route 15 North 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% Route 15 South 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Route 7 West 1% 2% 4% 5% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% Southwest 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Sterling 7% 7% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% MF 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ashburn 65% 60% 93% 38% 45% 70% 63% 51% 79% Dulles 4% 0% 2% 37% 2% 0% 19% 24% 0% Leesburg 4% 13% 0% 20% 7% 30% 0% 0% 21% Northwest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Potomac 2% 22% 0% 5% 10% 0% 18% 18% 0% Route 15 North 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 15 South 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 7 West 8% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Southwest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% Sterling 16% 0% 5% 0% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0% Source: Loudoun County Department of Building & Development. Compiled by: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table A-2(c). Countywide Distribution of Residential Building Permits Issued 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-7. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 Housing Units 2001 Housing Units 2002 Housing Units 2003 Housing Units 2004 Housing Units 2005 Housing Units 2006 Housing Units 2007 Housing Units 2008 Housing Units 2009 Housing Units Total Total 62,160 68,523 73,005 78,794 85,851 92,443 98,246 101,359 104,102 105,913 SFD 35,929 38,609 40,436 43,310 46,626 50,124 53,275 55,161 56,603 57,407 SFA 17,389 19,766 21,344 22,952 25,199 27,199 28,756 29,626 30,622 31,328 MF 8,842 10,148 11,225 12,532 14,026 15,120 16,215 16,572 16,877 17,178 Ashburn Total 12,007 14,356 16,086 18,758 22,175 24,875 26,949 28,177 29,211 29,939 SFD 5,540 6,197 6,683 7,936 9,145 10,470 11,588 12,247 12,746 13,020 SFA 4,341 5,381 5,927 6,561 7,381 8,396 8,854 9,174 9,517 9,817 MF 2,126 2,778 3,476 4,261 5,649 6,009 6,507 6,756 6,948 7,102 Dulles Total 3,006 3,792 4,338 4,961 6,732 8,630 10,204 11,178 12,131 12,841 SFD 1,800 2,151 2,401 2,769 3,694 4,583 5,376 5,876 6,280 6,576 SFA 938 1,224 1,478 1,733 2,551 3,156 3,919 4,393 4,885 5,227 MF 268 417 459 459 487 891 909 909 966 1,038 Leesburg Total 11,940 13,355 14,559 15,830 16,649 17,558 18,159 18,428 18,640 18,754 SFD 5,966 6,826 7,464 8,052 8,551 8,960 9,241 9,386 9,517 9,584 SFA 2,980 3,510 4,031 4,543 4,859 5,122 5,364 5,380 5,461 5,508 MF 2,994 3,019 3,064 3,235 3,239 3,476 3,554 3,662 3,662 3,662 Northwest Total 2,432 2,552 2,629 2,747 2,854 3,044 3,250 3,396 3,488 3,536 SFD 2,333 2,453 2,530 2,648 2,755 2,944 3,149 3,291 3,371 3,409 SFA 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 92 104 114 MF 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 Potomac Total 13,724 14,311 14,523 14,989 15,055 15,204 15,386 15,436 15,525 15,582 SFD 7,299 7,529 7,605 7,686 7,724 7,736 7,739 7,742 7,746 7,748 SFA 4,928 5,253 5,364 5,459 5,487 5,535 5,607 5,654 5,683 5,683 MF 1,497 1,529 1,554 1,844 1,844 1,933 2,040 2,040 2,096 2,151 *Number of housing units are as of April 1 of the year. Table A-3. Residential Units by Planning Subarea 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-8. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 Housing Units 2001 Housing Units 2002 Housing Units 2003 Housing Units 2004 Housing Units 2005 Housing Units 2006 Housing Units 2007 Housing Units 2008 Housing Units 2009 Housing Units Route 15 North Total 964 995 1,026 1,083 1,140 1,238 1,390 1,487 1,586 1,624 SFD 933 964 995 1,052 1,109 1,207 1,359 1,453 1,531 1,563 SFA 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 16 37 43 MF 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Route 15 South Total 938 974 988 1,008 1,032 1,063 1,117 1,183 1,265 1,301 SFD 891 927 941 961 985 1,016 1,070 1,136 1,213 1,249 SFA 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 28 28 MF 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Route 7 West Total 4,468 4,759 5,114 5,535 6,019 6,565 7,029 7,262 7,408 7,453 SFD 3,860 4,131 4,360 4,663 5,037 5,507 5,951 6,184 6,330 6,375 SFA 433 453 489 546 652 721 741 741 741 741 MF 175 175 265 326 330 337 337 337 337 337 Southwest Total 2,698 2,773 2,799 2,854 2,925 3,001 3,074 3,109 3,137 3,171 SFD 2,450 2,525 2,551 2,606 2,663 2,738 2,809 2,838 2,859 2,873 SFA 128 128 128 128 142 142 144 150 157 157 MF 120 120 120 120 120 121 121 121 121 141 Sterling Total 9,983 10,656 10,943 11,029 11,270 11,265 11,688 11,703 11,711 11,712 SFD 4,857 4,906 4,906 4,937 4,963 4,963 4,993 5,008 5,010 5,010 SFA 3,517 3,693 3,803 3,858 4,003 4,003 4,003 4,003 4,009 4,010 MF 1,609 2,057 2,234 2,234 2,304 2,299 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692 *Number of housing units are as of April 1 of the year. Source: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table A-3. Residential Units by Planning Subarea 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-9. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total 55,249 28,661 20,666 104,576 Ashburn 12,775 9,416 9,398 31,589 Dulles 13,360 8,001 4,006 25,367 Leesburg 9,927 7,150 3,500 20,577 Northwest 4,096 0 0 4,096 Potomac 1,465 1,400 2,300 5,165 R15 North 2,405 33 0 2,438 R15 South 1,688 0 0 1,688 R7 West 6,343 1,303 0 7,646 Southwest 2,468 0 0 2,468 Sterling 722 1,358 1,462 3,542 *2000 baseline under the Revised General Plan Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development. Table A-4. Estimated Maximum New Units Without Redevelopment, 2000 Baseline* Planning Subarea Unbuilt Units as of 2000 Grand Total 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-10. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Low Intermediate High SFD SFA MF 2000* 6,134 6,134 6,134 2,680 2,377 1,077 2001* 4,712 4,712 4,712 1,827 1,578 1,307 2002* 5,976 5,976 5,976 2,874 1,608 1,494 2003* 6,657 6,657 6,657 3,316 2,247 1,094 2004* 6,593 6,593 6,593 3,498 2,000 1,095 2005* 5,065 5,065 5,065 3,151 1,[PHONE REDACTED]* 3,061 3,061 3,061 1,886 [PHONE REDACTED]* 2,739 2,739 2,739 1,442 [PHONE REDACTED]* 2,391 2,391 2,391 804 [PHONE REDACTED] 1,650 1,800 2,200 843 [PHONE REDACTED] 1,700 2,000 2,300 740 [PHONE REDACTED] 1,900 2,250 2,600 790 [PHONE REDACTED] 2,000 2,400 2,800 790 [PHONE REDACTED] 2,400 2,700 3,100 900 780 1,020 2014 2,500 2,815 3,200 950 800 1,065 2015 2,500 2,910 3,300 1,025 800 1,085 2016 2,900 3,240 3,700 1,090 1,050 1,100 2017 2,900 3,245 3,700 1,095 1,050 1,100 2018 3,300 3,500 4,000 1,100 1,050 1,350 2019 3,300 3,500 4,000 1,300 800 1,400 2020 3,300 3,500 4,000 1,400 800 1,300 2021 3,100 3,260 3,700 1,385 775 1,100 2022 2,900 3,065 3,500 1,385 [PHONE REDACTED] 2,900 3,010 3,400 1,355 [PHONE REDACTED] 2,400 2,610 2,900 1,280 [PHONE REDACTED] 2,000 2,185 2,300 1,125 [PHONE REDACTED] 2,000 1,790 1,700 890 [PHONE REDACTED] 2,000 1,770 1,700 870 [PHONE REDACTED] 2,000 1,715 1,700 830 85 800 2029 1,700 1,310 1,200 635 75 600 2030 1,500 1,240 1,200 575 65 600 2031 1,400 1,065 1,000 500 65 500 2032 1,200 915 700 420 65 430 2033 1,200 905 700 410 65 430 2034 1,200 895 700 405 65 425 2035 1,200 805 700 365 50 390 2036 1,200 800 700 360 50 390 2037 800 680 500 325 50 305 2038 800 605 500 275 50 280 2039 800 515 400 255 50 210 2040 800 460 400 250 50 160 * 2000-2008: actuals Notes: Forecasts are based on rail arriving during 2017. Forecasts by Scenario Intermediate Forecast by Unit Type Table A-5. Alternative Forecasts of Residential Building Permits 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Page A-11. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn 6,853 7,231 16,227 30,311 4,676 3,048 3,785 11,509 2,177 4,521 12,104 18,802 38% Alexander's Chase 65 142 0 207 0 0 0 0 65 142 0 207 0% Ashby Ponds (Erickson Retirement)(2) 0 0 2,108 2,108 0 0 536 536 0 0 1,572 1,572 25% Ashburn Place 27 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 27 0% Belmont Glen Village (Belmont Glen - Rouse Property) 196 0 0 196 0 0 0 0 196 0 0 196 0% Belmont Ridge, Towns at 0 29 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 29 0% Broadlands 1,946 1,225 846 4,017 1,812 1,016 532 3,360 134 209 314 657 84% Chase at Belmont Country Club 88 0 0 88 85 0 0 85 3 0 0 3 97% Dulles Parkway Center 0 0 624 624 0 0 0 0 0 0 624 624 0% Evergreen Hamlets(3) 70 0 0 70 23 0 0 23 47 0 0 47 33% Goose Creek Chase 24 0 0 24 23 0 0 23 1 0 0 1 96% Goose Creek Preserve 202 128 170 500 0 0 0 0 202 128 170 500 0% Goose Creek Village North 0 300 264 564 0 0 0 0 0 300 264 564 0% Goose Creek Village South 0 92 0 92 0 80 0 80 0 12 0 12 87% Huntmoore at Waxpool 0 37 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 37 0% Lansdowne (Lansdowne Village Greens, Leisure World, Linden Row)(4) 1,242 920 3,461 5,623 1,242 1,032 1,864 4,138 0 226 1,259 1,485 74% Loudoun Parkway Center 141 330 539 1,010 50 330 539 919 91 0 0 91 91% Loudoun Station(5) 0 0 1,514 1,514 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,514 1,514 0% Loudoun Valley Estates (Broad Run Meadows, Loudoun Valley Preserve, Churchill Meadows) 742 235 0 977 722 235 0 957 20 0 0 20 98% Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2008 Planning Subarea/ Project Name(1) Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/09 Units Remaining to be Permitted as of 1/1/09 Percent Complete 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-12. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn, continued Loudoun Valley Estates II 745 1,071 945 2,761 104 39 0 143 641 1,032 945 2,618 5% Moorefield Station(5) 50 1,300 4,650 6,000 0 0 314 314 50 1,300 4,336 5,686 5% Moreland Estates (Corro Property) 80 0 0 80 27 0 0 27 53 0 0 53 34% Morley Corner 0 0 128 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 128 128 0% One Loudoun 265 329 446 1,040 0 0 0 0 265 329 446 1,040 0% Potomac Green 511 572 390 1,473 343 288 0 631 168 284 390 842 43% Regency at Ashburn 15 111 142 268 0 0 0 0 15 111 142 268 0% Reserve at Bella Terra, The 43 0 0 43 34 0 0 34 9 0 0 9 79% Reserve at Waxpool 25 24 0 49 0 0 0 0 25 24 0 49 0% Ryans Corner 0 143 0 143 0 0 0 0 0 143 0 143 0% Station View 0 47 0 47 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 47 0% Stonegate 100 93 0 193 0 0 0 0 100 93 0 193 0% Villages of Waxpool (Overlook at Beaverdam Creek) 192 0 0 192 178 0 0 178 14 0 0 14 93% Windermere 84 103 0 187 33 28 0 61 51 75 0 126 33% Dulles 10,483 10,311 5,715 26,509 5,004 5,097 1,134 11,235 5,479 6,060 3,735 15,274 42% Arcola Center 0 550 619 1,169 0 0 0 0 0 550 619 1,169 0% Avonlea (Pinebrooke Village, Pinebrooke Estates) 65 343 0 408 20 96 0 116 45 247 0 292 28% Belmont Trace 49 82 0 131 0 0 0 0 49 82 0 131 0% Blue Spring Farm 67 0 0 67 66 0 0 66 1 0 0 1 99% Braddock Corner 69 90 0 159 54 59 0 113 15 31 0 46 71% Braddock Crossing 58 134 0 192 0 0 0 0 58 134 0 192 0% Brambleton(3) 3,050 2,950 433 6,433 1,083 847 433 2,363 1,967 2,103 0 4,070 37% Brambleton Active Adult 0 315 1,187 1,502 0 0 0 0 0 315 1,187 1,502 0% Brambleton Brandt 109 127 0 236 0 0 0 0 109 127 0 236 0% CD Smith 153 214 88 455 0 0 0 0 153 214 88 455 0% Dawson's Corner 224 0 0 224 0 0 0 0 224 0 0 224 0% East Gate One 0 193 206 399 0 0 0 0 0 193 206 399 0% East Gate Three 0 0 222 222 0 0 0 0 0 0 222 222 0% Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2008 Planning Subarea/ Project Name(1) Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/09 Units Remaining to be Permitted as of 1/1/09 Percent Complete 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-13. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Dulles, continued Estates at Elk Run 135 71 0 206 0 0 0 0 135 71 0 206 0% Frontier Spring 36 43 0 79 29 43 0 72 7 0 0 7 91% Glascock Field at Stone Ridge 0 138 138 276 0 0 0 0 0 138 138 276 0% Graham 0 149 0 149 0 0 0 0 0 149 0 149 0% Greenfield Crossing 16 91 0 107 0 0 0 0 16 91 0 107 0% Kimmitt Property 51 48 0 99 0 0 0 0 51 48 0 99 0% Kirkpatrick Farms(6) 953 248 216 1,417 484 437 0 921 469 27 0 496 65% Kirkpatrick West 173 66 134 373 0 0 0 0 173 66 134 373 0% Little River Commons (Masira) 103 60 0 163 23 18 0 41 80 42 0 122 25% Marbury 227 8 0 235 0 0 0 0 227 8 0 235 0% Poland Road Property 195 0 0 195 185 0 0 185 10 0 0 10 95% Providence Glen 20 59 0 79 0 0 0 0 20 59 0 79 0% Reserve at South Riding 9 78 0 87 0 0 0 0 9 78 0 87 0% Rockbridge 120 0 0 120 2 0 0 2 118 0 0 118 2% Rosspriory Estates 21 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 21 0% Seven Hills 624 276 212 1,112 0 0 0 0 624 276 212 1,112 0% South Riding (Katama Woods, South Riding Station)(7) 2,689 2,319 1,100 6,108 2,482 2,739 470 5,691 207 210 0 417 93% Stone Ridge (Amber Spring, Mercer Park) 853 1,252 1,160 3,265 454 837 231 1,522 399 415 929 1,743 47% Townes at East Gate 57 267 0 324 0 0 0 0 57 267 0 324 0% Treburg 41 0 0 41 1 0 0 1 40 0 0 40 2% Westbrook 29 0 0 29 28 0 0 28 1 0 0 1 97% White Oak Crest 26 0 0 26 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 26 0% Winsbury 59 0 0 59 6 0 0 6 53 0 0 53 10% Woodburn 0 119 0 119 0 0 0 0 0 119 0 119 0% Woodland 202 21 0 223 87 21 0 108 115 0 0 115 48% Leesburg 1,929 1,361 913 4,203 1,201 759 185 2,145 686 431 728 1,845 56% Beacon Hill (remainder in Route 15 North) 215 0 0 215 206 0 0 206 9 0 0 9 96% Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2008 Planning Subarea/ Project Name(1) Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/09 Units Remaining to be Permitted as of 1/1/09 Percent Complete 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-14. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Leesburg, continued Colts Run 49 0 0 49 1 0 0 1 48 0 0 48 2% Emerald Parks Estates 31 0 0 31 29 0 0 29 2 0 0 2 94% Evergreen Rural Village(3) 281 24 0 305 78 24 0 102 203 0 0 203 33% Goose Creek Bend 36 0 0 36 9 0 0 9 27 0 0 27 25% Grenata 58 0 0 58 28 0 0 28 30 0 0 30 48% Kincaid Forest, Towns at 0 38 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 38 0% Kingdom Farm 59 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 59 0 0 59 0% Lake Hill 48 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 48 0% Market Square at Potomac Station 0 0 320 320 0 0 0 0 0 0 320 320 0% Oaklawn 0 326 0 326 0 110 0 110 0 216 0 216 34% PMW Farms (Festival Lakes) 140 135 0 275 0 0 0 0 140 135 0 275 0% Red Cedar (remainder in Route 15 South)(8) 336 36 0 372 226 36 0 262 110 0 0 110 70% River Creek(9) 590 760 0 1,350 540 589 0 1,129 8 0 0 8 99% Rokeby Hamlet(3) 86 0 0 86 84 0 0 84 2 0 0 2 98% Village at Leesburg 0 42 593 635 0 0 185 185 0 42 408 450 29% Northwest 847 76 0 923 385 24 0 409 459 52 0 511 45% Dale Property 22 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 22 0% Dutchman's Creek Hamlet 73 0 0 73 25 0 0 25 48 0 0 48 34% Ecovillage 56 0 0 56 14 0 0 14 42 0 0 42 25% Keena Property 19 8 0 27 0 0 0 0 19 8 0 27 0% Kingsridge Estates 80 0 0 80 54 0 0 54 26 0 0 26 68% Retirement Village 12 68 0 80 0 24 0 24 12 44 0 56 30% Lovettsville Town Center 203 0 0 203 18 0 0 18 185 0 0 185 9% New Town Meadows 153 0 0 153 150 0 0 150 3 0 0 3 98% Potomac Point(9) 32 0 0 32 14 0 0 14 15 0 0 15 53% Saratoga 56 0 0 56 12 0 0 12 44 0 0 44 21% Schoene Property 29 0 0 29 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 29 0% Stonebrook Farms Hamlet 28 0 0 28 26 0 0 26 2 0 0 2 93% Waterfield Hamlet 20 0 0 20 18 0 0 18 2 0 0 2 90% Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2008 Planning Subarea/ Project Name(1) Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/09 Units Remaining to be Permitted as of 1/1/09 Percent Complete 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-15. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Northwest, continued Waterford View Estates 64 0 0 64 54 0 0 54 10 0 0 10 84% Potomac 3,024 2,040 1,510 6,574 2,598 2,116 1,462 6,176 0 0 48 48 99% Cascades(10) 3,024 2,040 1,510 6,574 2,598 2,116 1,462 6,176 0 0 48 48 99% Rt. 15 North 931 33 0 964 465 30 0 495 466 3 0 469 51% Beacon Hill (remainder in Leesburg) 38 0 0 38 29 0 0 29 9 0 0 9 76% Churchill Downs 33 0 0 33 29 0 0 29 4 0 0 4 88% Elysian Heights 301 33 0 334 94 30 0 124 207 3 0 210 37% Historic Selma Estates 176 0 0 176 27 0 0 27 149 0 0 149 15% Lee's Crossing 63 0 0 63 26 0 0 26 37 0 0 37 41% Raspberry Falls (Moorlands, Plains of Raspberry) 205 0 0 205 156 0 0 156 49 0 0 49 76% Waterford Ridge 115 0 0 115 104 0 0 104 11 0 0 11 90% Rt. 15 South 515 26 0 541 146 5 0 151 367 21 0 388 28% Chudleigh Farm 32 0 0 32 5 0 0 5 27 0 0 27 16% Courtland Farm (Courtland Rural Village) 263 26 0 289 110 5 0 115 153 21 0 174 40% Estates at Creighton Farms (Barclay Ridge) 197 0 0 197 27 0 0 27 170 0 0 170 14% Little River Farms(9) 23 0 0 23 4 0 0 4 17 0 0 17 26% Rt. 7 West 2,313 607 0 2,920 1,419 112 0 1,531 887 492 0 1,379 53% Autumn Hill 0 492 0 492 0 0 0 0 0 492 0 492 0% Creekside at Round Hill 95 0 0 95 0 0 0 0 95 0 0 95 0% Hamlets Of Blue Ridge, The 85 0 0 85 66 0 0 66 19 0 0 19 78% Heather Knolls 60 0 0 60 51 0 0 51 9 0 0 9 85% Highlands, The 98 0 0 98 66 0 0 66 32 0 0 32 67% Hirst Farm 240 0 0 240 231 0 0 231 9 0 0 9 96% Lake Ridge Estates 31 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 31 0% Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2008 Planning Subarea/ Project Name(1) Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/09 Units Remaining to be Permitted as of 1/1/09 Percent Complete 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-16. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Rt. 7 West, continued Longmoor Farm Estates 34 0 0 34 13 0 0 13 21 0 0 21 38% Oak Knoll Farms 74 0 0 74 60 0 0 60 14 0 0 14 81% Orchards at Round Hill 34 0 0 34 32 0 0 32 2 0 0 2 94% Ridgeview Estates(9) 23 0 0 23 7 0 0 7 9 0 0 9 61% Stoneleigh 142 0 0 142 130 0 0 130 12 0 0 12 92% Village Case, The 165 0 0 165 92 0 0 92 73 0 0 73 56% Villages at Round Hill(9)(11) 1,010 115 0 1,125 542 112 0 654 468 0 0 468 58% Waterford Creek 36 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 36 0% Woodmar Farm 67 0 0 67 15 0 0 15 52 0 0 52 22% Wright Farm 119 0 0 119 114 0 0 114 5 0 0 5 96% Southwest 212 12 49 273 13 0 0 13 199 12 49 260 5% Airmont Meadows 24 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 24 0% Fieldstone Farm 70 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 70 0% Fox Run 48 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 48 0% Kelley 21 0 0 21 13 0 0 13 8 0 0 8 62% Salamander Resort and Spa 49 12 49 110 0 0 0 0 49 12 49 110 0% Sterling 0 221 881 1,102 0 0 220 220 0 221 661 882 20% Community Village at Sterling (Monroe House, Mirror Ridge) 0 0 325 325 0 0 220 220 0 0 105 105 68% Hall Road Property 0 42 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 42 0% Gatherings at Cascades 0 0 440 440 0 0 0 0 0 0 440 440 0% Townes at Autumn Oaks 0 179 0 179 0 0 0 0 0 179 0 179 0% Victoria Station 0 0 116 116 0 0 0 0 0 0 116 116 0% Total 27,107 21,918 25,295 74,320 15,907 11,191 6,786 33,884 10,720 11,813 17,325 39,858 46% Source: Loudoun County Department of Building & Development. Compiled by: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Includes rezonings and by-right projects. Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2008 Planning Subarea/ Project Name(1) Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/09 Units Remaining to be Permitted as of 1/1/09 Percent Complete For consistency with the U.S. Census Bureau's approach to calculating population and housing units, Ashby Ponds's units will not be included in the calculation of housing units (Table F-1). However, Ashby Ponds's construction will be tracked in Tables F-6 and F-7 and its population will be included in Table A-1. 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-17. ---PAGE BREAK--- Project covers multiple subareas. Units shown are those approved for the entire project and are representative of all subareas that the project covers. Maximum units allowed with the provision of rail. Project is being built at fewer units than the rezoning(s) or by-right development preliminary subdivision(s) approvals. (11) Includes Lake Point, Mountain Valley, Round Hill Rural Estates, The Villages at Round Hill, and West Lake. Notes: SFD (Single-Family Detached), SFA (Single-Family Attached), MF (Multi-family) This table provides staff's best estimates of development, based on the approval documents (for "Total Approved Units"), building permits issued, and data in the county's geographic information system. "Units Remaining to be Permitted" generally reflects the difference between the total approved units and those permitted through January 1, 2009. However, some projects have flexible "up to" totals by unit type, and some units considered single-family attached for the purpose of this document may be listed as multi-family on the approval document. Also, some projects are completed with fewer units than originally approved. Data in the "Units Remaining to be Permitted" and "Percent Complete" sections have been adjusted to reflect these factors. South Riding had 2,319 SFA and 1,100 MF approved via rezoning. There are 630 MF approved units that have been or will be constructed as townhouse condos. For permitting and demographic purposes, townhouse condos are classified as SFA. These 630 units are shown as SFA in the "units built or permitted" and "units remaining to be permitted" sections of Table F-7. The portion of Lansdowne in the Leesburg planning subarea is completed. Figures in this table only show the portion in the Ashburn planning subarea. See the completed projects supplemental information on the Loudoun County Government 2008 Annual Growth Summary website for information on the Leesburg planning subarea portion of Lansdowne. This project had 920 SFA and 3,461 MF approved via rezoning. There are 338 approved units that have been or will be constructed as townhouse condos. For permitting and demographic purposes, townhouse condos are classified as SFA. These 338 units are shown as SFA in the "units built or permitted" and "units remaining to be permitted" sections of Table F-7. The portion of Red Cedar in the Route 15 South planning subarea is completed. Figures in this table only show the portion in the Leesburg planning subarea. See the completed projects supplemental information on the Loudoun County Government 2008 Annual Growth Summary website for information on the Route 15 South planning subarea portion of Red Cedar. (10) Includes Falcon's Landing, Potomac Lakes, Potomac Square, Potomac Terrace, Town Center at Westlakes, and Potomac Lakes Town Center. Single-family detached are complete and were built at fewer units than approved. Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2008 This project had 248 SFA and 216 MF approved via rezoning. All 216 MF approved units have been or will be constructed as townhouse condos. For permitting and demographic purposes, townhouse condos are classified as SFA. These 216 units are shown as SFA in the "units built or permitted" and "units remaining to be permitted" sections of Table F-7. 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-18. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn 2,177 4,521 12,104 18,802 12% 24% 64% 100% Dulles 5,479 6,060 3,735 15,274 36% 40% 24% 100% Leesburg 686 431 728 1,845 37% 23% 39% 100% Northwest 459 52 0 511 90% 10% 0% 100% Potomac 0 0 48 48 0% 0% 100% 100% Route 15 North 466 3 0 469 99% 1% 0% 100% Route 15 South 367 21 0 388 95% 5% 0% 100% Route 7 West 887 492 0 1,379 64% 36% 0% 100% Southwest 199 12 49 260 77% 5% 19% 100% Sterling 0 221 661 882 0% 25% 75% 100% Total 10,720 11,813 17,325 39,858 27% 30% 43% 100% SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn 2,177 4,521 12,104 18,802 20% 38% 70% 47% Dulles 5,479 6,060 3,735 15,274 51% 51% 22% 38% Leesburg 686 431 728 1,845 6% 4% 4% 5% Northwest 459 52 0 511 4% 0% 0% 1% Potomac 0 0 48 48 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 15 North 466 3 0 469 4% 0% 0% 1% Route 15 South 367 21 0 388 3% 0% 0% 1% Route 7 West 887 492 0 1,379 8% 4% 0% 3% Southwest 199 12 49 260 2% 0% 0% 1% Sterling 0 221 661 882 0% 2% 4% 2% Total 10,720 11,813 17,325 39,858 100% 100% 100% 100% Residential Mix by Planning Subarea: Countywide Percentage Distribution Planning Subarea Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Countywide Unit Distribution Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Countywide Percentage Distribution Table A-7 Residential Mix by Planning Subarea: Percentage Distribution Within Subarea Planning Subarea Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Unit Distribution Within Subarea Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Percentage Distribution Within Subarea Table A-7 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-19. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Single- Family Detached Single- Family Attached Multi-family 2005 4.0% 4.8% 12.5% 2006 6.7% 7.5% 14.4% 2007 6.7% 7.5% 16.1% 2008 6.7% 7.5% 16.1% 2009 6.7% 7.5% 16.1% 2010 6.7% 7.5% 14.4% 2011 5.5% 6.2% 12.5% 2012 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2013 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2014 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2015 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2016 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2017 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2018 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2019 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2020 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2021 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2022 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2023 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2024 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2025 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2026 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2027 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2028 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2029 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2030 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2031 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2032 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2033 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2034 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2035 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2036 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2037 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2038 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2039 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% 2040 4.8% 5.6% 12.0% Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table A-8. Residential Vacancy Rate Assumptions 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines.xlsx Page A-20. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000 - - - - - - - - - - - 2001 36.9% 12.4% 22.2% 1.9% 9.2% 0.5% 0.6% 4.6% 1.2% 10.6% 100.0% 2002 38.6% 12.2% 26.9% 1.7% 4.7% 0.7% 0.3% 7.9% 0.6% 6.4% 100.0% 2003 46.2% 10.8% 22.0% 2.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.3% 7.3% 1.0% 1.5% 100.0% 2004 48.4% 25.1% 11.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 6.9% 1.0% 3.4% 100.0% 2005 42.0% 28.7% 13.7% 2.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.5% 8.5% 0.7% 0.0% 100.0% 2006 35.7% 27.1% 10.4% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 0.9% 8.0% 1.3% 7.3% 100.0% 2007 39.4% 31.3% 8.6% 4.7% 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 7.5% 1.1% 0.5% 100.0% 2008 37.7% 34.7% 7.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.6% 3.0% 5.3% 1.0% 0.3% 100.0% 2009 40.2% 39.2% 6.3% 2.7% 3.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.5% 1.9% 0.1% 100.0% 2010 47.6% 34.5% 11.8% 1.6% 0.0% 1.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 100.0% 2011 33.2% 45.5% 14.1% 2.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2012 48.2% 39.3% 6.1% 1.9% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 100.0% 2013 43.9% 38.6% 5.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 5.7% 100.0% 2014 40.2% 35.5% 8.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.1% 2.0% 3.3% 0.4% 5.2% 100.0% 2015 39.3% 35.9% 10.1% 2.3% 0.0% 1.4% 1.8% 3.0% 0.7% 5.4% 100.0% 2016 35.0% 37.5% 10.5% 2.7% 0.0% 1.6% 1.8% 4.4% 1.2% 5.2% 100.0% 2017 35.9% 38.8% 10.2% 2.4% 0.0% 1.4% 1.6% 4.7% 0.6% 4.5% 100.0% 2018 35.7% 40.9% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 5.1% 1.6% 5.8% 100.0% 2019 37.3% 40.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 5.1% 1.2% 5.9% 100.0% 2020 39.0% 38.8% 6.1% 1.9% 0.0% 1.3% 1.4% 5.6% 0.6% 5.2% 100.0% 2021 35.6% 36.9% 6.7% 2.5% 0.0% 1.9% 1.7% 6.8% 0.6% 7.3% 100.0% 2022 28.5% 37.8% 8.2% 3.3% 0.0% 2.7% 1.8% 7.4% 0.7% 9.6% 100.0% 2023 27.9% 37.2% 8.0% 4.6% 0.0% 2.8% 1.9% 7.6% 0.7% 9.2% 100.0% 2024 24.1% 40.5% 6.9% 5.1% 0.0% 3.4% 2.0% 8.2% 0.8% 8.8% 100.0% 2025 22.0% 38.3% 6.3% 5.6% 2.7% 3.8% 2.3% 8.9% 1.1% 9.0% 100.0% 2026 21.3% 31.6% 8.3% 7.1% 3.1% 4.4% 2.7% 10.5% 1.6% 9.5% 100.0% 2027 23.8% 22.3% 8.1% 8.6% 5.7% 5.4% 3.2% 10.5% 1.9% 10.4% 100.0% 2028 24.9% 20.5% 9.2% 10.2% 2.6% 5.6% 3.4% 10.2% 2.5% 10.9% 100.0% 2029 25.7% 18.1% 9.4% 10.5% 1.9% 5.8% 3.5% 10.4% 3.5% 11.3% 100.0% 2030 29.1% 17.4% 6.6% 11.9% 1.6% 6.6% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 12.8% 100.0% 2031 19.3% 14.8% 11.4% 14.4% 1.3% 6.5% 4.8% 7.3% 4.8% 15.6% 100.0% 2032 18.9% 11.9% 13.9% 15.1% 1.4% 5.8% 4.5% 6.4% 5.2% 16.8% 100.0% 2033 17.3% 13.7% 10.9% 17.8% 1.6% 6.0% 3.6% 6.4% 6.1% 16.8% 100.0% 2034 14.9% 12.7% 13.4% 19.3% 1.8% 6.5% 3.9% 7.0% 6.6% 13.9% 100.0% 2035 15.0% 12.8% 12.2% 19.4% 2.9% 6.6% 3.9% 6.7% 6.7% 13.9% 100.0% 2036 16.1% 10.7% 12.5% 17.9% 4.3% 7.0% 4.2% 6.0% 7.1% 14.3% 100.0% 2037 16.9% 11.3% 12.6% 18.8% 4.8% 7.0% 4.4% 6.3% 7.5% 10.6% 100.0% 2038 17.6% 11.8% 12.8% 18.3% 5.1% 7.2% 2.4% 6.3% 7.8% 10.7% 100.0% 2039 21.4% 8.3% 15.1% 17.5% 6.8% 7.3% 2.4% 6.3% 9.5% 5.4% 100.0% 2040 23.1% 4.8% 16.1% 15.4% 8.9% 7.9% 2.6% 6.8% 10.3% 4.3% 100.0% Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table A-9(a). Distribution of Future Residential Growth by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Page A-21. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg*** Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000 - - - - - - - - - - - 2001 2,349 786 1,415 120 587 31 36 291 75 673 6,363 2002 1,730 546 1,204 77 212 31 14 355 26 287 4,482 2003 2,672 623 1,271 118 466 57 20 421 55 86 5,789 2004 3,417 1,771 819 107 66 57 24 484 71 241 7,057 2005 2,771 1,894 906 185 102 93 31 562 45 3 6,592 2006 2,074 1,574 601 206 182 152 54 464 73 423 5,803 2007 1,228 974 269 146 50 97 66 233 35 15 3,113 2008 1,034 953 212 92 89 99 82 146 28 8 2,743 2009 728 710 114 48 57 38 36 45 34 1 1,811 2010 1,158 839 287 38 0 30 45 25 8 2 2,432 2011 580 796 247 37 0 17 40 25 7 0 1,749 2012 988 805 125 39 1 20 40 25 7 0 2,050 2013 988 868 125 41 1 20 46 25 7 129 2,250 2014 1,017 897 210 53 49 28 50 84 11 131 2,530 2015 1,088 995 280 65 1 38 50 84 20 149 2,770 2016 966 1,034 290 75 1 45 50 122 32 143 2,758 2017 1,157 1,252 328 77 1 45 50 150 20 145 3,225 2018 1,157 1,328 195 65 1 45 50 165 52 187 3,245 2019 1,211 1,325 158 65 1 45 50 165 39 191 3,250 2020 1,344 1,339 212 65 1 45 50 194 19 181 3,450 2021 1,280 1,328 242 90 1 70 60 245 20 264 3,600 2022 949 1,258 272 110 1 90 60 245 23 320 3,328 2023 904 1,205 260 150 1 90 60 245 23 297 3,235 2024 714 1,200 205 150 1 100 60 244 25 261 2,960 2025 585 1,018 168 150 73 100 60 237 29 240 2,660 2026 480 712 187 160 70 100 60 237 35 214 2,255 2027 440 413 149 160 106 100 60 194 35 193 1,850 2028 440 363 163 180 46 100 60 180 45 193 1,770 2029 440 311 161 180 32 100 60 178 60 193 1,715 2030 440 263 100 180 24 100 60 90 60 193 1,510 2031 239 183 141 178 16 80 60 90 60 193 1,240 2032 220 139 162 176 16 68 53 75 60 196 1,165 2033 170 135 107 175 16 59 35 63 60 [PHONE REDACTED] 135 115 121 175 16 59 35 63 60 [PHONE REDACTED] 135 115 110 175 26 59 35 60 60 [PHONE REDACTED] 135 90 105 150 36 59 35 50 60 [PHONE REDACTED] 135 90 101 150 38 56 35 50 60 85 800 2038 135 90 98 140 39 55 18 48 60 82 765 2039 135 52 95 110 43 46 15 40 60 34 630 2040 135 28 94 90 52 46 15 40 60 25 585 Total 37,903 30,417 12,309 4,748 2,521 2,570 1,820 6,739 1,619 6,514 107,160 2000 Maximum* 31,589 25,367 20,577 4,096 5,165 2,438 1,688 7,646 2,468 3,542 104,576 Difference** 6,314 5,050 -8,268 652 -2,644 132 132 -907 -849 2,972 2,584 * Maximum potential new units according to 2000 baseline of the Revised General Plan. Table A-9(b). New Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Forecasted total through 2040 incorporates comprehensive plan amendments and approved rezonings that are variances from the planned land use under the Revised General Plan. 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Page A-22. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000 12,007 3,006 11,940 2,432 13,724 964 938 4,468 2,698 9,983 62,160 2001 14,356 3,792 13,355 2,552 14,311 995 974 4,759 2,773 10,656 68,523 2002 16,086 4,338 14,559 2,629 14,523 1,026 988 5,114 2,799 10,943 73,005 2003 18,758 4,961 15,830 2,747 14,989 1,083 1,008 5,535 2,854 11,029 78,794 2004 22,175 6,732 16,649 2,854 15,055 1,140 1,032 6,019 2,925 11,270 85,851 2005 24,946 8,626 17,555 3,039 15,157 1,233 1,063 6,581 2,970 11,273 92,443 2006 27,020 10,200 18,156 3,245 15,339 1,385 1,117 7,045 3,043 11,696 98,246 2007 28,248 11,174 18,425 3,391 15,389 1,482 1,183 7,278 3,078 11,711 101,359 2008 29,282 12,127 18,637 3,483 15,478 1,581 1,265 7,424 3,106 11,719 104,102 2009 30,010 12,837 18,751 3,531 15,535 1,619 1,301 7,469 3,140 11,720 105,913 2010 31,168 13,676 19,038 3,569 15,535 1,649 1,346 7,494 3,148 11,722 108,345 2011 31,748 14,472 19,285 3,606 15,535 1,666 1,386 7,519 3,155 11,722 110,094 2012 32,736 15,277 19,410 3,645 15,536 1,686 1,426 7,544 3,162 11,722 112,144 2013 33,724 16,145 19,535 3,686 15,537 1,706 1,472 7,569 3,169 11,851 114,394 2014 34,741 17,042 19,745 3,739 15,586 1,734 1,522 7,653 3,180 11,982 116,924 2015 35,829 18,037 20,025 3,804 15,587 1,772 1,572 7,737 3,200 12,131 119,694 2016 36,795 19,071 20,315 3,879 15,588 1,817 1,622 7,859 3,232 12,274 122,452 2017 37,952 20,323 20,643 3,956 15,589 1,862 1,672 8,009 3,252 12,419 125,677 2018 39,109 21,651 20,838 4,021 15,590 1,907 1,722 8,174 3,304 12,606 128,922 2019 40,320 22,976 20,996 4,086 15,591 1,952 1,772 8,339 3,343 12,797 132,172 2020 41,664 24,315 21,208 4,151 15,592 1,997 1,822 8,533 3,362 12,978 135,622 2021 42,944 25,643 21,450 4,241 15,593 2,067 1,882 8,778 3,382 13,242 139,222 2022 43,893 26,901 21,722 4,351 15,594 2,157 1,942 9,023 3,405 13,562 142,550 2023 44,797 28,106 21,982 4,501 15,595 2,247 2,002 9,268 3,428 13,859 145,785 2024 45,511 29,306 22,187 4,651 15,596 2,347 2,062 9,512 3,453 14,120 148,745 2025 46,096 30,324 22,355 4,801 15,669 2,447 2,122 9,749 3,482 14,360 151,405 2026 46,576 31,036 22,542 4,961 15,739 2,547 2,182 9,986 3,517 14,574 153,660 2027 47,016 31,449 22,691 5,121 15,845 2,647 2,242 10,180 3,552 14,767 155,510 2028 47,456 31,812 22,854 5,301 15,891 2,747 2,302 10,360 3,597 14,960 157,280 2029 47,896 32,123 23,015 5,481 15,923 2,847 2,362 10,538 3,657 15,153 158,995 2030 48,336 32,386 23,115 5,661 15,947 2,947 2,422 10,628 3,717 15,346 160,505 2031 48,575 32,569 23,256 5,839 15,963 3,027 2,482 10,718 3,777 15,539 161,745 2032 48,795 32,708 23,418 6,015 15,979 3,095 2,535 10,793 3,837 15,735 162,910 2033 48,965 32,843 23,525 6,190 15,995 3,154 2,570 10,856 3,897 15,900 163,895 2034 49,100 32,958 23,646 6,365 16,011 3,213 2,605 10,919 3,957 16,026 164,800 2035 49,235 33,073 23,756 6,540 16,037 3,272 2,640 10,979 4,017 16,151 165,700 2036 49,370 33,163 23,861 6,690 16,073 3,331 2,675 11,029 4,077 16,271 166,540 2037 49,505 33,253 23,962 6,840 16,111 3,387 2,710 11,079 4,137 16,356 167,340 2038 49,640 33,343 24,060 6,980 16,150 3,442 2,728 11,127 4,197 16,438 168,105 2039 49,775 33,395 24,155 7,090 16,193 3,488 2,743 11,167 4,257 16,472 168,735 2040 49,910 33,423 24,249 7,180 16,245 3,534 2,758 11,207 4,317 16,497 169,320 Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table A-9(c). Cumulative Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Page A-23. ---PAGE BREAK--- Average Number Unit Type Value of Units* SFD: less than 1 acre $545,186 778 SFA $402,307 700 MF (condo) $260,529 170 * Completed units as of January 1. Source: Loudoun County Office of the Assessor. Table A-10. Value of New Residential Units, 2009 2009 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-24. ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix B: Nonresidential Analysis ---PAGE BREAK--- Type 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* High Density Office 411,812 411,812 969,541 1,338,473 1,338,473 1,338,473 1,338,473 1,446,873 1,571,534 1,571,534 1,571,534 1,571,534 Low Density Office 7,527,686 9,236,605 10,713,264 11,188,163 11,344,555 12,306,358 12,622,889 13,243,795 13,802,584 14,329,005 14,652,907 14,652,907 Mixed-use NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 288,325 358,465 Retail 5,997,766 6,529,896 7,409,877 7,870,895 8,400,813 9,132,285 9,931,958 10,472,666 11,662,438 12,411,786 13,258,224 13,286,454 Retail-Hotel NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 461,152 863,215 863,215 Other 8,641,779 10,524,425 12,401,888 14,211,293 15,011,509 16,064,539 17,509,451 18,693,716 19,385,987 19,585,588 20,826,390 20,858,340 Other-Public NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 573,359 887,298 1,468,477 Flex/Light Industrial 7,837,821 9,055,410 12,262,743 13,623,769 14,038,841 14,507,701 15,794,779 17,137,754 18,680,590 20,517,019 22,279,539 22,349,414 Heavy Industrial 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 Total 30,436,448 35,777,732 43,776,897 48,252,177 50,153,775 53,368,940 57,217,134 61,014,388 65,122,717 69,469,027 74,647,016 75,428,390 Annual BP Total 5,341,284 7,999,166 4,475,280 1,901,598 3,215,165 3,848,194 3,797,254 4,108,329 4,346,310 5,177,989 781,374 *through April 2009 Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development based on LMIS Building Permit data. Notes: 2007 is the first year that permitting for public uses ("Other - Public") has been tracked. This square feet is assigned to Other on the following tables. 2007 is the first year that pemitting for hotel ("Retail-Hotel") has been tracked. Previously was part of Retail. Hotel square feet is assigned to Retail on the following tables. 2008 is the first year that permitting for mixed-use was tracked. Mixed-use square feet is assigned to Office and Retail categories on the following tables according to project mix. Table B-1. Cumulative Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Type 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 High Density Office 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.4% 12.4% 13.7% 31.0% Low Density Office 2.1% 4.8% 7.8% 9.7% 16.9% 17.4% 13.6% 9.0% 7.9% 9.7% 12.9% 16.7% Retail 13.5% 13.3% 10.1% 9.5% 10.0% 8.0% 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.7% 6.0% Other 10.8% 10.6% 8.1% 7.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.8% 8.0% 5.6% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Flex/Light Industrial 5.4% 5.2% 1.9% 5.4% 18.9% 21.4% 19.2% 15.9% 15.1% 13.3% 14.2% 13.3% Heavy Industrial NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Costar Realty Information, Inc. as reported in the Annual Growth Summary. Note: Vacancy rates are calculated for all commercial space, including owner-occupied. Table B-2. Trends in Nonresidential Vacancy 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year High Density Office Low Density Office Retail Other Flex/Light Industrial Heavy Industrial 2000* 0.0% 9.7% 9.5% 7.0% 5.4% N/A 2001* 13.0% 16.9% 10.0% 8.0% 18.9% N/A 2002* 13.0% 17.4% 8.0% 7.0% 21.4% N/A 2003* 13.0% 13.6% 6.2% 6.8% 19.2% N/A 2004* 13.0% 9.0% 3.0% 8.0% 15.9% N/A 2005* 12.4% 7.9% 3.0% 5.6% 15.1% N/A 2006* 12.4% 9.7% 2.0% 5.0% 13.3% N/A 2007* 13.7% 12.9% 2.7% 5.0% 14.2% N/A 2008* 31.0% 16.7% 6.0% 5.0% 13.3% N/A 2009 15.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 18.0% N/A 2010 12.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.0% 15.0% N/A 2011 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 15.0% N/A 2012 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 15.0% N/A 2013 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 15.0% N/A 2014 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2015 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2016 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2017 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2018 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2019 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2020 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2021 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2022 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2023 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2024 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2025 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2026 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2027 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2028 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2029 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2030 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2031 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2032 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2033 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2034 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2035 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2036 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2037 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2038 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2039 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2040 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A *2000-2008 actuals Table B-3. Nonresidential Vacancy Rate Assumptions 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Page B-3. ---PAGE BREAK--- Vacancy Rates Square Footage (in 000s) Occupied SF (in 000s) Employees/ Employment Type of Space 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 1,000 SF 2006 2007 2008 High Density Office 12.4% 13.7% 31.0% 1,572 1,572 1,572 1,377 1,356 1,084 3.40 4,681 4,611 3,687 2% Low Density Office 9.7% 12.9% 16.7% 13,803 14,329 14,753 12,464 12,481 12,289 3.17 39,510 39,563 38,957 25.8% Retail (including hotel) 2.0% 2.7% 6.0% 11,662 12,873 14,310 11,429 12,525 13,451 1.50 17,144 18,788 20,177 13.4% Other 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 19,386 20,159 21,714 18,417 19,151 20,628 1.19 21,916 22,790 24,547 16.2% Flex/Industrial 13.3% 14.2% 13.3% 18,681 20,517 22,280 16,196 17,604 19,316 2.15 34,822 37,848 41,530 27.5% Heavy Industrial NA NA NA 20 20 20 20 20 20 1.83 36 36 36 0.0% Sum of Employment Calculated with Factors 118,108 123,636 128,934 Model Employment Estimates Estimated employment linked to nonresidential space (using employees/1,000 SF factors shown above) 117,289 120,080 127,515 84.4% Employment at airport (not included in the employees/1,000 SF factors shown above) 11,433 13,850 14,831 9.8% Additional employment not covered elsewhere (nonspace employment and employment not covered by VEC) 8,288 8,348 8,719 5.8% Total employment 137,011 142,278 151,065 100.0% Estimated Employment from Outside Sources, for Comparison Virginia Employment Commission (VEC) Total Employment (2nd Quarter) 125,874 129,745 133,410 Adjustment for Uncovered Airport Employment 2,344 2,721 2,912 Adjustment for Nonspace and Uncovered Employment 8,400 9,000 10,000 Total employment 136,618 141,466 146,322 Difference Between Model Estimates and Comparison Total 392 812 4,743 NA: not applicable. Note: Employment used for 2008 on Tables 4 and 5 adjusted downwards to reflect economic conditions. Table B-4. Analysis of Employees per 1,000 SF Background Analysis for Inputs and Assumptions 2008 Employment 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Low Intermediate High Low Intermediate High 2000* 7,999,166 7,999,166 7,999,166 43,776,898 43,776,898 43,776,898 2001* 4,475,280 4,475,280 4,475,280 48,252,178 48,252,178 48,252,178 2002* 1,901,598 1,901,598 1,901,598 50,153,776 50,153,776 50,153,776 2003* 3,215,165 3,215,165 3,215,165 53,368,941 53,368,941 53,368,941 2004* 3,848,194 3,848,194 3,848,194 57,217,135 57,217,135 57,217,135 2005* 3,797,254 3,797,254 3,797,254 61,014,389 61,014,389 61,014,389 2006* 4,108,329 4,108,329 4,108,329 65,122,718 65,122,718 65,122,718 2007* 4,346,310 4,346,310 4,346,310 69,469,028 69,469,028 69,469,028 2008* 5,177,989 5,177,989 5,177,989 74,647,017 74,647,017 74,647,017 2009 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 75,647,017 76,147,017 76,647,017 2010 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 76,647,017 77,647,017 78,647,017 2011 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 78,147,017 79,647,017 81,147,017 2012 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 80,147,017 82,147,017 84,147,017 2013 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 82,647,017 85,147,017 87,647,017 2014 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 85,147,017 88,147,017 91,147,017 2015 2,900,000 3,400,000 3,900,000 88,047,017 91,547,017 95,047,017 2016 3,150,000 3,650,000 4,150,000 91,197,017 95,197,017 99,197,017 2017 3,150,000 3,650,000 4,150,000 94,347,017 98,847,017 103,347,017 2018 3,350,000 3,850,000 4,350,000 97,697,017 102,697,017 107,697,017 2019 3,350,000 3,850,000 4,350,000 101,047,017 106,547,017 112,047,017 2020 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 104,047,017 110,047,017 116,047,017 2021 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 106,547,017 113,047,017 119,547,017 2022 2,100,000 2,600,000 3,100,000 108,647,017 115,647,017 122,647,017 2023 1,900,000 2,400,000 2,900,000 110,547,017 118,047,017 125,547,017 2024 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 112,047,017 120,047,017 128,047,017 2025 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 113,547,017 122,047,017 130,547,017 2026 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 115,047,017 124,047,017 133,047,017 2027 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 116,547,017 126,047,017 135,547,017 2028 1,300,000 1,800,000 2,300,000 117,847,017 127,847,017 137,847,017 2029 1,100,000 1,600,000 2,100,000 118,947,017 129,447,017 139,947,017 2030 900,000 1,400,000 1,900,000 119,847,017 130,847,017 141,847,017 2031 900,000 1,400,000 1,900,000 120,747,017 132,247,017 143,747,017 2032 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 121,547,017 133,547,017 145,547,017 2033 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 122,347,017 134,847,017 147,347,017 2034 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 123,147,017 136,147,017 149,147,017 2035 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 123,947,017 137,447,017 150,947,017 2036 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 124,747,017 138,747,017 152,747,017 2037 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 125,547,017 140,047,017 154,547,017 2038 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 126,347,017 141,347,017 156,347,017 2039 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 127,147,017 142,647,017 158,147,017 2040 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 127,947,017 143,947,017 159,947,017 * 2000-2008: actuals Note: Forecasts are net of redevelopment. Table B-5. Alternative Nonresidential Forecasts New SF Permitted Cumulative SF Permitted 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Page B-5. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Ashburn Ashbrook 99 65 1,100,000 Ashburn Corporate Center 125 35 380,000 Ashburn Center 76 48 600,000 Ashburn Center Crossroads 43 11 190,000 Ashburn Village Executive Center** 84 84 1,400,000 Beaumeade Corporate Park 628 151 2,300,000 Belmont 62 31 540,000 Brambleton 170 170 2,900,000 Broad Run Business Center 254 117 1,400,000 Broadlands 141 118 1,200,000 Commonwealth Center at Ashburn 164 117 2,000,000 Crosscreek Corporate Center 18 12 200,000 Downs Industrial Park 56 36 600,000 Dulles 2000 29 29 800,000 Dulles Berry 84 84 1,400,000 Dulles Parkway Center 63 54 940,000 Dulles Summit 78 41 700,000 Dulles Trade Center II 101 48 800,000 Greenway Corporate Park 31 31 540,000 Highpoint Corporate Park 56 56 800,000 Kincora (Ray)** 216 216 3,000,000 LansdowneCorporate Center 121 12 200,000 Lexington Seven (Potomac Farms) 71 71 800,000 Loudoun Exchange 59 34 590,000 Loudoun Gateway 137 31 539,000 Loudoun Parkway Center 164 164 2,500,000 Loudoun Pointe 78 78 1,300,000 Loudoun Square 23 12 200,000 Loudoun Station 40 40 1,300,000 Mercure Business Park 152 34 590,000 Moorefield Station 444 444 9,400,000 Northwoods (Westwind 606) 279 279 4,400,000 Table B-6. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available), 2008 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-6. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Table B-6. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available), 2008 One Loudoun 266 266 3,000,000 Paragon Park 113 113 1,900,000 TAB I 129 129 2,248,000 University Center 250 89 800,000 Verizon Campus 425 280 4,800,000 Waterside (Nattak) 64 64 760,000 West Dulles Station 28 28 480,000 Subarea Total 5,421 3,722 59,597,000 Percent 73% 74% 75% Dulles Arcola Center 160 160 2,700,000 Bryant Dulles Industrial Park 82 82 1,425,000 Eastgate 35 35 500,000 Stone Ridge 112 112 1,900,000 Subarea Total 389 389 6,525,000 Percent 5% 8% 8% Leesburg Battlefield Park (Lee Gate)** 115 115 800,000 Village at Leesburg (Leesburg Commons) 50 50 300,000 Oaklawn at Leesburg 73 73 1,270,000 Subarea Total 238 238 2,370,000 Percent 3% 5% 3% Sterling Centenial Dominion Center 100 100 1,700,000 Dulles World Center (CIT)* 89 89 2,600,000 Dulles Commerce Center 34 32 550,000 Dulles International Park 71 22 380,000 Dulles North Corporate Park 80 15 260,000 Dulles Town Center* 242 214 3,700,000 Loudoun Tech Center 246 22 380,000 Steeplechase 153 27 470,000 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-7. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Table B-6. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available), 2008 Sterling Park Business Center 122 43 440,000 Tall Oaks 26 18 300,000 TransDulles Centre 154 53 90,000 Woodland 85 19 300,000 Subarea Total 1,402 654 11,170,000 Percent 19% 13% 14% Total 7,450 5,003 79,662,000 * Maximum FAR (not including zoning changes due to the fact that most properties require a legislative process to realize additional FAR). **Active rezoning Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development-- December 2008. Note: Only projects in the Ashburn, Dulles, Leesburg, and Sterling planning subareas included. 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-8. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Total High Density Office Low Density Office Retail Other Flex/ Light Industrial Heavy Industrial 2000 100% 3% 23% 25% 29% 20% 0% 2001 100% 8% 11% 10% 40% 31% 0% 2002 100% 0% 23% 24% 28% 25% 0% 2003 100% 0% 13% 23% 50% 15% 0% 2004 100% 0% 6% 20% 40% 34% 0% 2005 100% 6% 14% 13% 31% 35% 0% 2006 100% 0% 17% 24% 22% 38% 0% 2007 100% 0% 12% 28% 18% 42% 0% 2008 100% 2% 20% 19% 29% 30% 0% 2009 100% 2% 20% 20% 28% 30% 0% 2010 100% 2% 22% 22% 26% 28% 0% 2011 100% 2% 24% 22% 26% 26% 0% 2012 100% 2% 24% 22% 26% 26% 0% 2013 100% 2% 24% 22% 26% 26% 0% 2014 100% 3% 24% 22% 26% 24% 0% 2015 100% 3% 24% 22% 26% 24% 0% 2016 100% 3% 24% 22% 26% 24% 0% 2017 100% 5% 24% 24% 24% 22% 0% 2018 100% 5% 24% 24% 24% 22% 0% 2019 100% 5% 24% 24% 24% 22% 0% 2020 100% 8% 25% 24% 24% 19% 0% 2021 100% 8% 25% 24% 24% 19% 0% 2022 100% 8% 25% 24% 24% 19% 0% 2023 100% 10% 26% 23% 24% 18% 0% 2024 100% 10% 26% 23% 24% 18% 0% 2025 100% 10% 26% 23% 24% 18% 0% 2026 100% 10% 26% 23% 24% 18% 0% 2027 100% 10% 26% 20% 24% 19% 0% 2028 100% 11% 28% 16% 26% 20% 0% 2029 100% 11% 29% 13% 26% 21% 0% 2030 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2031 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2032 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2033 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2034 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2035 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2036 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2037 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2038 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2039 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2040 100% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% Note: Components may not equal sums because of rounding error. Table B-7. Future Mix of New Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage Per Year 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines. Page B-9. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution County Northwest Route 7 West Total 74,647,016 100% Total 339,501 0% Total 2,720,545 4% High Density Office 1,571,534 100% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% Low Density Office 14,652,907 100% Low Density Office 4,398 0% Low Density Office 159,793 1% Retail 14,121,439 100% Retail 68,796 0% Retail 451,047 3% Mixed-Use 288,325 100% Mixed-Use NA NA Mixed-Use NA NA Other 21,713,688 100% Other 243,204 1% Other 1,679,850 8% Flex/Light Industrial 22,279,539 100% Flex/Light Industrial 23,103 0% Flex/Light Industrial 429,855 2% Heavy Industrial 19,584 100% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Ashburn Potomac Southwest Total 30,790,781 41% Total 3,602,302 5% Total 738,208 1% High Density Office 1,391,534 89% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% Low Density Office 7,977,279 54% Low Density Office 580,084 4% Low Density Office 95,995 1% Retail 2,819,125 20% Retail 1,083,359 8% Retail 372,823 3% Mixed-Use NA NA Mixed-Use NA NA Mixed-Use NA NA Other 6,357,406 29% Other 1,819,203 8% Other 251,587 1% Flex/Light Industrial 12,235,209 55% Flex/Light Industrial 119,656 1% Flex/Light Industrial 17,803 0% Heavy Industrial 10,228 52% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Dulles Route 15 North Sterling Total 7,587,494 10% Total 111,779 0% Total 16,740,485 22% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 180,000 11% Low Density Office 846,822 6% Low Density Office 1,008 0% Low Density Office 2,882,492 20% Retail 1,492,968 11% Retail 7,361 0% Retail 3,843,142 27% Mixed-Use NA NA Mixed-Use NA NA Mixed-Use NA NA Other 2,715,050 13% Other 96,049 0% Other 3,692,208 17% Flex/Light Industrial 2,524,586 11% Flex/Light Industrial 7,361 0% Flex/Light Industrial 6,141,355 28% Heavy Industrial 8,068 41% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 1,288 7% Leesburg Route 15 South Total 11,879,068 16% Total 136,853 0% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% Low Density Office 2,105,036 14% Low Density Office 0 0% Retail 3,961,515 28% Retail 21,303 0% Mixed-Use 288,325 100% Mixed-Use NA NA Other 4,758,290 22% Other 100,841 0% Flex/Light Industrial 765,902 3% Flex/Light Industrial 14,709 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Source: Loudoun County Department of Building & Development (as reported in the Annual Growth Summary Compiled by Loudoun County Department of Economic Development. * Includes schools, hospitals, churches, airport support facilities, self storage, etc. Notes: Based on permits through 2008 Table B-8. Nonresidential Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2009 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-10. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Projected Mix Planning Subarea Projected Mix Planning Subarea Projected Mix County Northwest Route 7 West High Density Office 100% High Density Office 0% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 100% Low Density Office 0% Low Density Office 2% Retail 100% Retail 0% Retail 5% Other 100% Other 1% Other 9% Flex/Light Industrial 100% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 4% Heavy Industrial 100% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Ashburn Potomac Southwest High Density Office 74% High Density Office 1% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 51% Low Density Office 2% Low Density Office 0% Retail 25% Retail 4% Retail 1% Other 40% Other 5% Other 1% Flex/Light Industrial 45% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 9% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Dulles Route 15 North Sterling High Density Office 0% High Density Office 0% High Density Office 22% Low Density Office 11% Low Density Office 0% Low Density Office 15% Retail 20% Retail 0% Retail 17% Other 15% Other 0% Other 14% Flex/Light Industrial 21% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 22% Heavy Industrial 90% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 1% Leesburg Route 15 South High Density Office 3% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 20% Low Density Office 0% Retail 27% Retail 0% Other 15% Other 0% Flex/Light Industrial 8% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Table B-9. Future Distribution of Nonresidential Space by Type and Planning Subarea Distribution of Cumulative Nonresidential Space by the Year 2040 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-11. ---PAGE BREAK--- 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 Ashburn 13,164,170 9,080,663 6,382,701 Dulles 7,643,985 4,651,952 2,183,834 Leesburg 5,057,573 3,378,708 2,156,568 Northwest 141,621 21,413 16,236 Potomac 219,323 160,650 8,118 Route 15 North 30,870 21,413 16,236 Route 15 South 30,870 21,413 16,236 Route 7 West 1,963,447 1,366,693 898,478 Southwest 30,997 21,413 16,236 Sterling 4,112,643 2,075,683 1,405,357 Total 32,395,500 20,800,000 13,100,000 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 High Density Office 1,693,531 2,123,553 1,448,968 Low Density Office 8,222,258 5,562,569 3,864,776 Retail 7,622,557 4,511,062 1,416,151 Other 7,771,606 4,679,060 3,576,390 Flex/Light Industrial 7,047,621 3,895,707 2,775,043 Heavy Industrial 37,927 28,049 18,671 Total 32,395,500 20,800,000 13,100,000 Table B-10 Future Distribution of New Nonresidential Permits: Planning Subarea Planning Subarea Square Feet Table B-10 Future Distribution of New Nonresidential Permits: Type Square Feet 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-12. ---PAGE BREAK--- 2009 Average Unit Type Value* Office $211 Retail $196 Light Industrial $108 Source: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services and Office of the Assessor * Properties completed in multiple years, but fully complete by January 1, 2009 Note: One value for office is shown, rather than separate values for high and low density office, given the similar values for buildings with five or more stories (high density) and up to five stories (low density). Table B-11. Value of Commercial Property, 2009 Average Values Based on Representative Properties 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-13. ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix C: Analysis of Other Demographic and Economic Factors ---PAGE BREAK--- September 30 School Year Year Enrollment 1999-2000 1999 28,787 2000-2001 2000 31,804 2001-2002 2001 34,589 2002-2003 2002 37,532 2003-2004 2003 40,751 2004-2005 2004 44,014 2005-2006 2005 47,361 2006-2007 2006 50,478 2007-2008 2007 54,047 2008-2009 2008 57,009 Source: Loudoun County Public Schools. Table C-1. September Public School Enrollment Trends 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page C-1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Personal Income Percent Change Per Capita Income Percent Change Source 2000 $7,153,949,000 14.0% $41,145 3.7% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2001 $7,718,740,000 7.9% $40,700 -1.1% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2002 $7,799,414,000 1.0% $38,419 -5.6% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003 $8,363,373,000 7.2% $38,115 -0.8% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2004 $9,263,172,000 10.8% $39,091 2.6% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2005 $10,783,438,000 16.4% $42,613 9.0% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2006 $12,280,922,000 13.9% $46,350 8.8% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2007 $13,531,537,000 10.2% $48,789 5.3% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2008 $13,449,283,000 -0.6% $48,276 -1.1% Management and Financial Services 2009 $14,081,853,000 4.7% $49,691 2.9% Management and Financial Services 2010 $14,875,648,000 5.6% $51,552 3.7% Management and Financial Services 2011 $15,743,954,000 5.8% $53,558 3.9% Management and Financial Services 2012 $16,591,957,000 5.4% $55,340 3.3% Management and Financial Services 2013 $17,470,749,000 5.3% $57,012 3.0% Management and Financial Services 2014 $18,448,884,000 5.6% $58,752 3.1% Management and Financial Services Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Note: Loudoun County develops forecasts each fall. The 2008 - 2014 forecast is based on data available as of September, 2008, whereas data through 2007 was updated by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in April 2009. Table C-2. Personal and Per Capita Income Analysis 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page C-2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Residential Rental Multifamily Commercial/Industrial Total All Parcels Number of Parcels 12,200 27 862 13,089 Number of Acres 34,548 86 8,990 43,624 Fair Market Value of Land $1,843,986,580 $66,009,300 $2,033,977,900 $3,943,973,780 Parcels with Land Use Assessments Number of Parcels in Land Use 1,311 12 1,323 Number of Land Use Acres 12,348 609 12,957 Fair Market Value of Land Use Parcels $403,434,200 $46,347,000 $449,781,200 Use Value of Land $7,588,960 $339,670 $7,928,630 Deferred Assessment of Land Use Parcels $395,845,240 $46,007,330 $441,852,570 * Excludes public service corporation and tax exempt properties. Source: Loudoun County Office of the Assessor. 20 - 100 Acres > 100 Acres Total All Parcels Number of Parcels 1,978 421 2,399 Number of Acres 78,180 83,692 161,873 Fair Market Value $2,154,621,800 $1,854,658,300 $4,009,280,100 Parcels with Land Use Assessments Number of Parcels in Land Use 1,637 378 2,015 Number of Land Use Acres 65,674 75,064 140,739 Fair Market Value of Land Use Parcels $1,118,043,400 $983,832,600 $2,101,876,000 Use Value of Land $193,129,810 $67,536,680 $260,666,490 Deferred Assessment of Land Use Parcels $924,913,590 $916,295,920 $1,841,209,510 * Excludes public service corporation and tax exempt properties. Source: Loudoun County Office of the Assessor. Agricultural Land* Undeveloped Land* Table C-3(a). Land Values, 2009: Vacant Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Land Table C-3(b). Land Values, 2009: Agricultural Land, Parcels 20 Acres and Larger 2009 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page C-3.