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2006 Annual Update Demographic, Revenue and Expenditure Modules and Growth Scenarios Loudoun County Board of Supervisors Fiscal Impact Committee Loudoun County, Virginia February 2007 ---PAGE BREAK--- Fiscal Impact Committee Members Mick Staton, Loudoun County Board Of Supervisors Sam C. Adamo, Loudoun County Public Schools Samer Beidas Steven J. DeLong, Cavalier Land Development Linda Erbs Samuel Hahn Peggy Maio Leonard S. (Hobie) Mitchel, Lansdowne Community Development LLC Staff Support Jill Allmon, Department of Management and Financial Services Robyn Bailey, Department of Economic Development Jack Brown, Department of Management and Financial Services Leslie Hansbarger, Office of the County Administrator Beth Hilkemeyer, Department of Management and Financial Services Benjamin Mays, Department of Management and Financial Services Tricia Simons, Department of Economic Development County of Loudoun 1 Harrison Street SE PO Box 7000 Leesburg, VA 20177 (703)777-0200 ---PAGE BREAK--- 2006 Annual Update Demographic, Revenue and Expenditure Modules And Growth Scenarios Executive Summary The Fiscal Impact Committee (FIC) developed the 2006 Annual Update of Demographic, Revenue and Expenditures Modules and Growth Scenarios. This Update reflects the review and analysis of key demographic inputs and assumptions that significantly affect residential and nonresidential forecasts for Loudoun County. This year, after a careful analysis of regional and local trends and supporting information provided by FIC members, County staff and the Board of Supervisors, changes to several inputs and assumptions were made. Both household sizes and pupil generation rates have been increased in the 2006 Annual Update, and growth scenarios for residential and nonresidential development have been adjusted. Household sizes reflect newly available data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2005 American Communities Survey. Pupil generation rates were based on the 2005 Loudoun County-Virginia School Census, as already reflected in the Capital Intensity Factors adopted by the Board of Supervisors in July 2006. Under the Revised Comprehensive Plan and its subsequent amendments, residential development will be limited, especially in the western Loudoun planning subareas. The intermediate scenario continues to project a reduction in the number of new units absorbed over the long-term due to housing supply constraints. Future residential units were distributed with consideration of build out capacity of planning subareas. Low, intermediate and high scenarios for the future distribution of residential units vary, reflecting remaining capacity and redevelopment in some subareas. The FIC considered current market trends and reduced the near-term projection of residential growth. The FIC forecasts a continuation of strong economic growth, which is reflected in the nonresidential forecasts. The following figures provide a visual depiction of the intermediate scenario, which will be submitted to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) for review as part of the Round 7.1 regional demographic update. ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Population 2006 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Number of Persons ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Housing Units 2006 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Total Housing Units ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Units by Type 2006 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Housing Units - SFD Housing Units - SFA Housing Units - MF Total Housing Units ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted School Enrollment 2006 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Public School Enrollment ---PAGE BREAK--- 0.83 0.47 0.28 Single Family Detached Single-Family Attached Multi-Family School Age Children per Household School Age Children by Housing Type 2006 FIC Approved Inputs ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Employment 2006 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Number of Jobs ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Nonresidential SF 2006 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 [PHONE REDACTED] 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 SF Nonresidential Space (millions) ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Nonresidential SF by Type (2005-2030) 2006 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 SF High Density Office SF Low Density Office SF Retail SF Other SF Light Industrial SF Heavy Industrial SF Nonresidential Space (millions) ---PAGE BREAK--- Table Of Contents Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic Module Table 2. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Revenue Module Table 3. Summary of Approved Input and Assumptions Expenditure Table 4. Countywide Intermediate Forecast Loudoun County, Virginia Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, Virginia Map of Loudoun County Planning Subareas Appendix A: Residential Analysis Table A-1. Baseline Housing Inventory by Planning Subarea, 2000 Table A-2. Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea Table A-3. 2006 Residential Baseline by Planning Subarea Table A-4. New Residential Unit Mix and Distribution by Planning Subarea Table A-5. Estimated Maximum New Units Without Redevelopment, 2000 Baseline Table A-6. Alternative Forecasts of New Residential Units Table A-7. Distribution of Future Residential Growth by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Table A-8. Major Residential Rezoning Projects by Planning Subarea Table A-9. Residential Mix by Planning Subarea Table A-10. Value of New Residential Units, 2006 Appendix B: Nonresidential Analysis Table B-1. Cumulative Nonresidential Square Footage Table B-2. Trends in Nonresidential Vacancy Table B-3. Analysis of Employees per 1,000 SF Table B-4. Value of Commercial Property, 2006 Table B-5. Nonresidential Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2005 Table B-6. Alternative Nonresidential Forecasts Table B-7. Future Mix of Nonresidential Square Footage Table B-8. Future Distribution of Nonresidential Space by Type and Planning Subarea Table B-9. Major Nonresidential Projects by Planning Subarea Table B-10. Assumed Vacancy Rates Appendix C: Other Demographic and Economic Factors Table C-1. September Public School Enrollment Trends Table C-2. Land Values, 2006 ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs and Assumptions and Growth Scenarios ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Approved Inputs Variable 2006 Source/Comments Variable 2006 Source/Comments Single Family Detached Multi-Family Number of Units 53,275 Table A-3 Number of Units 16,215 Table A-3 Household Size (Occupied Units) 3.21 FIC, 1/18/07 Household Size (Occupied Units) 2.04 FIC, 1/18/07 School Age Children/New Household 0.83 2005 School Census School Age Children/New Household 0.28 2005 School Census Long-Run Vacancy Rate 5% FIC, 1/18/07 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 10% FIC, 1/18/07 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0% for 3 years, then 1% FIC, 1/25/07 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0% for 3 years, then 1% FIC, 1/25/07 Property Value (New Units) $729,130 Table A-10 Property Value (New Units) $311,050 Table A-10 Single Family Attached Number of Units 28,756 Table A-3 Household Size (Occupied Units) 2.72 FIC, 1/18/07 School Age Children/New Household 0.47 2005 School Census Long-Run Vacancy Rate 5% FIC, 1/18/07 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0% for 3 years, then 1% FIC, 1/25/07 Property Value (New Units) $517,660 Table A-10 Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic Module 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page 1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Approved Inputs Variable 2006 Source/Comments Variable 2006 Source/Comments Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic Module High Density Office Other Square Feet (000s)* 1,572 Table B-1 Square Feet (000s)* 19,386 Table B-1 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 3.40 Table B-3 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.19 Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 10% Table B-10 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 5% Table B-10 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Value (New Square Feet) $196 Table B-4 Property Value (New Square Feet) N/A Low Density Office Heavy Industrial Square Feet (000s)* 13,803 Table B-1 Square Feet (000s)* 20 Table B-1 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 3.17 Table B-3 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 2.15 Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 8% Table B-10 Long-Run Vacancy Rate N/A Table B-10 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Value (New Square Feet) $160 Table B-4 Property Value (New Square Feet) N/A Retail Light Industrial Square Feet (000s)* 11,662 Table B-1 Square Feet (000s)* 18,681 Table B-1 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.50 Table B-3 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.83 Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 8% Table B-10 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 11% Table B-10 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Value (New Square Feet) $193 Table B-4 Property Value (New Square Feet) $93 Table B-4 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page 2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Variable 2006 Source/Comments Local Revenues (000s) Real Property Taxes $486,487,583 Department of Management and Financial Services Public Service Property Tax $12,848,028 Department of Management and Financial Services Personal Property Tax $73,204,063 Department of Management and Financial Services Property Penalties & Interest $3,928,476 Sales Tax $44,591,077 Department of Management and Financial Services Consumer Utility Tax $9,377,520 Department of Management and Financial Services Business License Tax $26,042,285 Development Related Permits $20,471,169 Department of Management and Financial Services Other Local Revenues $66,462,194 Department of Management and Financial Services State Revenues (000s) Sales Tax for Education $41,254,547 Department of Management and Financial Services Basic Aid $53,130,424 Department of Management and Financial Services Other State Education Aid $19,337,251 Department of Management and Financial Services Other State Categorical Aid $11,283,629 Department of Management and Financial Services Personal Property Tax Reimbursement $49,323,108 Department of Management and Financial Services State Other $19,889,565 Department of Management and Financial Services Federal Revenues (000s) Federal Categorical $15,683,815 Department of Management and Financial Services Federal Other $1,769 Department of Management and Financial Services Tax Rates Residential Property Tax Rate $0.89 Department of Management and Financial Services Personal Property Tax Rate $4.20 Department of Management and Financial Services Sales Tax Rate 5.0% Department of Management and Financial Services Table 2. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Revenue Module 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page 3. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Variable 2006 Source/Comments Operating Expenditures ($000's) Government Administration 37,311,843 Department of Management and Financial Services Judicial Administration 9,091,205 Department of Management and Financial Services Public Safety 93,570,930 Department of Management and Financial Services Public Works 17,132,207 Department of Management and Financial Services Health & Welfare 56,549,541 Department of Management and Financial Services Education 558,623,861 Department of Management and Financial Services Parks, Recreation & Cultural 33,658,223 Department of Management and Financial Services Community Development 21,569,971 Department of Management and Financial Services Total 827,507,781 Department of Management and Financial Services Table 3. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Expenditure Module 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page 4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Households 59,900 65,357 69,400 74,703 81,258 87,479 92,917 95,965 99,269 102,557 106,298 Population 169,599 185,120 196,314 211,146 229,429 247,342 262,959 271,987 281,636 290,929 301,127 Employment 95,412 106,183 107,330 117,570 123,383 130,308 137,681 145,266 152,393 159,563 166,865 Housing Units Total 62,160 68,523 73,005 78,794 85,851 92,443 98,246 101,481 104,980 108,480 112,482 Single Family Detached 35,929 38,609 40,436 43,310 46,626 50,124 53,275 55,323 57,163 58,796 60,368 Single Family Attached 17,389 19,766 21,344 22,952 25,199 27,199 28,756 29,586 30,923 32,117 33,373 Multifamily 8,842 10,148 11,225 12,532 14,026 15,120 16,215 16,572 16,894 17,567 18,740 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Households 110,033 113,765 117,500 121,704 125,913 130,111 134,318 138,531 142,465 146,031 149,222 Population 311,184 321,204 331,247 342,666 354,107 365,477 376,992 388,710 399,753 409,907 419,204 Employment 173,939 180,824 188,508 196,162 203,788 211,238 218,626 225,999 233,670 241,324 248,652 Housing Units Total 116,480 120,480 124,480 128,980 133,482 137,980 142,480 146,980 151,180 154,980 158,380 Single Family Detached 61,886 63,368 64,860 66,663 68,490 70,317 72,267 74,459 76,649 78,876 81,140 Single Family Attached 34,546 35,719 36,908 38,203 39,483 40,680 41,866 42,930 43,831 44,457 44,877 Multifamily 20,048 21,393 22,712 24,114 25,509 26,983 28,347 29,591 30,699 31,646 32,363 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Households 152,050 154,879 157,236 159,121 161,000 162,218 163,436 164,652 165,872 Population 427,695 436,249 443,390 449,012 454,619 458,119 461,619 465,077 468,541 Employment 255,404 260,814 266,217 270,350 274,435 278,518 282,599 286,676 290,749 Housing Units Total 161,380 164,380 166,880 168,880 170,880 172,180 173,480 174,780 176,080 Single Family Detached 83,445 85,836 87,872 89,406 90,937 91,790 92,643 93,452 94,260 Single Family Attached 45,124 45,319 45,427 45,536 45,647 45,751 45,856 45,974 46,093 Multifamily 32,811 33,226 33,582 33,938 34,296 34,639 34,981 35,353 35,725 Note: Housing unit totals may not equal the sum of Single Family Detached, Single Family Attached, and Multifamily due to rounding. Amended Table 4. Countywide Intermediate Forecast Loudoun County, Virginia Addendum: 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page 5 ---PAGE BREAK--- Actual Estimate Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Housing Units 62,160 92,443 98,246 101,481 104,980 108,480 112,482 133,482 154,980 168,880 176,080 Ashburn 12,007 24,875 26,949 28,210 29,393 30,577 31,935 38,465 43,643 44,584 45,244 Dulles 3,006 8,630 10,204 11,258 12,433 13,608 14,957 22,250 27,405 31,599 33,084 Leesburg 11,940 17,558 18,159 18,426 18,826 19,244 19,749 22,942 28,258 31,852 33,151 Northwest 2,432 3,044 3,250 3,409 3,587 3,765 3,947 4,831 5,757 6,405 6,816 Potomac 13,724 15,204 15,386 15,424 15,504 15,554 15,615 15,959 16,721 17,611 18,454 Route 15 North 964 1,238 1,390 1,490 1,597 1,704 1,847 2,585 3,427 3,983 4,229 Route 15 South 938 1,063 1,117 1,189 1,266 1,342 1,426 1,808 2,303 2,652 2,936 Route 7 West 4,468 6,565 7,029 7,262 7,493 7,723 7,954 8,948 10,515 12,138 12,877 Southwest 2,698 3,001 3,074 3,118 3,153 3,199 3,245 3,497 3,851 4,229 4,513 Sterling 9,983 11,265 11,688 11,694 11,729 11,763 11,807 12,199 13,104 13,831 14,780 Households 59,900 87,479 92,917 95,965 99,269 102,557 106,298 125,913 146,031 159,121 165,872 Ashburn 11,509 23,025 24,961 26,132 27,248 28,358 29,622 35,644 40,423 41,272 41,866 Dulles 2,886 8,130 9,626 10,581 11,701 12,816 14,094 20,932 25,756 29,722 31,131 Leesburg 11,480 16,748 17,314 17,573 17,951 18,340 18,806 21,796 26,799 30,212 31,446 Northwest 2,323 2,910 3,106 3,264 3,432 3,600 3,771 4,610 5,489 6,104 6,495 Potomac 13,437 14,756 14,921 14,963 15,032 15,076 15,130 15,447 16,148 16,966 17,741 Route 15 North 908 1,169 1,314 1,413 1,514 1,614 1,749 2,449 3,247 3,774 4,007 Route 15 South 879 1,001 1,052 1,123 1,195 1,267 1,346 1,708 2,180 2,511 2,780 Route 7 West 4,282 6,256 6,698 6,930 7,147 7,365 7,583 8,521 10,010 11,552 12,255 Southwest 2,454 2,750 2,820 2,866 2,899 2,942 2,985 3,226 3,563 3,924 4,195 Sterling 9,742 10,734 11,106 11,121 11,150 11,179 11,215 11,580 12,416 13,084 13,956 Amended Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, Virginia Addendum: 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page 6 ---PAGE BREAK--- Amended Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, Virginia Actual Estimate Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Population 169,599 247,342 262,959 271,987 281,636 290,929 301,127 354,107 409,907 449,012 468,541 Ashburn 33,581 64,924 70,417 73,782 76,882 79,851 83,044 97,657 109,127 110,887 112,099 Dulles 7,795 22,944 27,374 30,222 33,514 36,699 40,277 58,964 72,281 84,439 88,962 Leesburg 31,840 47,170 48,794 49,514 50,666 51,750 52,949 61,250 75,947 86,823 90,784 Northwest 6,499 8,337 8,966 9,466 9,999 10,531 11,074 13,752 16,574 18,548 19,803 Potomac 39,115 42,672 43,058 43,174 43,327 43,428 43,554 44,302 45,938 47,826 49,635 Route 15 North 2,506 3,325 3,790 4,107 4,428 4,747 5,176 7,418 9,979 11,671 12,419 Route 15 South 2,403 2,785 2,950 3,177 3,409 3,640 3,892 5,054 6,570 7,632 8,496 Route 7 West 12,354 18,300 19,710 20,449 21,117 21,785 22,446 25,312 30,013 34,963 37,220 Southwest 6,056 6,971 7,193 7,340 7,446 7,585 7,722 8,496 9,577 10,736 11,606 Sterling 27,450 29,914 30,707 30,755 30,850 30,912 30,992 31,903 33,901 35,487 37,519 Employment 95,412 130,308 137,681 145,266 152,393 159,563 166,865 203,788 241,324 270,350 290,749 Ashburn 34,113 50,823 54,515 58,904 62,119 65,261 67,909 83,183 99,000 110,012 118,575 Dulles 16,349 22,068 23,922 25,054 26,558 28,197 30,450 39,954 49,837 58,995 63,460 Leesburg 11,852 17,029 17,699 18,039 18,681 19,314 20,325 25,010 29,634 33,274 35,930 Northwest 541 632 704 721 747 788 1,068 1,166 1,246 1,315 1,363 Potomac 5,145 6,717 6,800 6,937 7,195 7,477 7,708 8,419 8,689 9,080 9,586 Route 15 North 207 223 241 263 277 293 313 399 483 548 581 Route 15 South 168 190 194 226 243 256 255 312 372 423 463 Route 7 West 2,423 3,873 4,007 4,264 4,654 5,054 5,448 7,562 9,808 11,867 13,528 Southwest 1,047 1,011 1,033 1,046 1,057 1,087 1,208 1,252 1,293 1,343 1,383 Sterling 23,569 27,742 28,566 29,810 30,863 31,836 32,181 36,531 40,962 43,493 45,880 Note: Totals may not equal the sum of the planning subareas due to rounding Addendum: 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page 7 ---PAGE BREAK--- 50 15 15 ÄÆ 7 ÄÆ 9 ÄÆ 287 ÄÆ 28 ÄÆ 267 ÄÆ 7 Leesburg Purcellville Middleburg Round Hill Hamilton Hillsboro Lovettsville Washington Dulles International Airport Route 15 North Route 15 South Southwest Dulles Ashburn Potomac Sterling Leesburg Route 7 West Northwest P o t o m a c R i v e r Fauquier County, VA Prince William County, VA Clarke County, VA Jefferson County, WV Fairfax County, VA City of Fairfax Montgomery County, MD Frederick County, MD Washington County, MD Planning Subareas L o u d o u n C o u n t y ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix A: Residential Analysis ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Total SFD SFA MF Ashburn 12,007 5,540 4,341 2,126 Dulles 3,006 1,800 938 268 Leesburg 11,940 5,966 2,980 2,994 Northwest 2,432 2,333 88 11 Potomac 13,724 7,299 4,928 1,497 Route 15 North 964 933 13 18 Route 15 South 938 891 23 24 Route 7 West 4,468 3,860 433 175 Southwest 2,698 2,450 128 120 Sterling 9,983 4,857 3,517 1,609 Total 62,160 35,929 17,389 8,842 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000. Compiled by Loudoun County Government, Department of Planning. Table A-1. Baseline Housing Inventory by Planning Subarea, 2000 Number of Housing Units 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total Total 6,134 4,712 5,976 6,657 6,593 5,065 SFD 2,680 1,827 2,874 3,316 3,498 3,151 SFA 2,377 1,578 1,608 2,247 2,000 1,557 MF 1,077 1,307 1,494 1,094 1,095 357 Ashburn Total 2,395 1,817 3,275 2,444 2,854 1,825 SFD 657 486 1,253 1,209 1,337 1,118 SFA 1,040 546 634 820 1,019 458 MF 698 785 1,388 415 498 249 Dulles Total 679 504 651 2,148 1,507 1,556 SFD 351 250 368 925 884 793 SFA 286 254 255 818 605 763 MF 42 0 28 405 18 0 Leesburg Total 1,435 1,330 1,104 1,037 762 631 SFD 860 638 588 499 421 281 SFA 530 521 512 316 263 242 MF 45 171 4 222 78 108 Northwest Total 120 77 118 108 185 205 SFD 120 77 118 107 184 205 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 MF 0 0 0 1 1 0 Potomac Total 580 477 176 116 159 75 SFD 230 76 81 38 9 3 SFA 325 111 95 28 43 72 MF 25 290 0 50 107 0 Table A-2. Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Table A-2. Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Route 15 North Total 31 31 57 57 93 152 SFD 31 31 57 57 93 152 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 MF 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 15 South Total 36 14 20 24 31 54 SFD 36 14 20 24 31 54 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 MF 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 7 West Total 381 326 364 480 562 464 SFD 271 229 303 374 492 444 SFA 20 36 57 106 70 20 MF 90 61 4 0 0 0 Southwest Total 75 26 55 72 44 73 SFD 75 26 55 57 44 71 SFA 0 0 0 14 0 2 MF 0 0 0 1 0 0 Sterling Total 402 110 156 171 396 30 SFD 49 0 31 26 3 30 SFA 176 110 55 145 0 0 MF 177 0 70 0 393 0 Source: Annual Growth Summaries and Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-3. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 Baseline 2000-01 New Units Added 2001 Housing Units 2001-02 New Units Added 2002 Housing Units 2002-03 New Units Added 2003 Housing Units 2003-04 New Units Added 2004 Housing Units 2004-05 New Units Added 2005 Housing Units 2005-06 New Units Added 2006 Housing Units Total Total 62,160 6,363 68,523 4,482 73,005 5,789 78,794 7,057 85,851 6,592 92,443 5,803 98,246 SFD 35,929 2,680 38,609 1,827 40,436 2,874 43,310 3,316 46,626 3,498 50,124 3,151 53,275 SFA 17,389 2,377 19,766 1,578 21,344 1,608 22,952 2,247 25,199 2,000 27,199 1,557 28,756 MF 8,842 1,306 10,148 1,077 11,225 1,307 12,532 1,494 14,026 1,094 15,120 1,095 16,215 Ashburn Total 12,007 2,349 14,356 1,730 16,086 2,672 18,758 3,417 22,175 2,771 24,946 2,074 27,020 SFD 5,540 657 6,197 486 6,683 1,253 7,936 1,209 9,145 1,337 10,482 1,118 11,600 SFA 4,341 1,040 5,381 546 5,927 634 6,561 820 7,381 1,019 8,400 458 8,858 MF 2,126 652 2,778 698 3,476 785 4,261 1,388 5,649 415 6,064 498 6,562 Dulles Total 3,006 786 3,792 546 4,338 623 4,961 1,771 6,732 1,894 8,626 1,574 10,200 SFD 1,800 351 2,151 250 2,401 368 2,769 925 3,694 884 4,578 793 5,371 SFA 938 286 1,224 254 1,478 255 1,733 818 2,551 605 3,156 763 3,919 MF 268 149 417 42 459 0 459 28 487 405 892 18 910 Leesburg Total 11,940 1,415 13,355 1,204 14,559 1,271 15,830 819 16,649 906 17,555 601 18,156 SFD 5,966 860 6,826 638 7,464 588 8,052 499 8,551 421 8,972 281 9,253 SFA 2,980 530 3,510 521 4,031 512 4,543 316 4,859 263 5,122 242 5,364 MF 2,994 25 3,019 45 3,064 171 3,235 4 3,239 222 3,461 78 3,539 Northwest Total 2,432 120 2,552 77 2,629 118 2,747 107 2,854 185 3,039 206 3,245 SFD 2,333 120 2,453 77 2,530 118 2,648 107 2,755 184 2,939 205 3,144 SFA 88 0 88 0 88 0 88 0 88 0 88 0 88 MF 11 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 11 1 12 1 13 Potomac Total 13,724 587 14,311 212 14,523 466 14,989 66 15,055 102 15,157 182 15,339 SFD 7,299 230 7,529 76 7,605 81 7,686 38 7,724 9 7,733 3 7,736 SFA 4,928 325 5,253 111 5,364 95 5,459 28 5,487 43 5,530 72 5,602 MF 1,497 32 1,529 25 1,554 290 1,844 0 1,844 50 1,894 107 2,001 *New units added are reflective of units added from April 2nd of the year to April 1st of the following year. Number of housing units are as of April 1 of the year. Table A-3. 2006 Residential Baseline by Planning Subarea 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 Baseline 2000-01 New Units Added 2001 Housing Units 2001-02 New Units Added 2002 Housing Units 2002-03 New Units Added 2003 Housing Units 2003-04 New Units Added 2004 Housing Units 2004-05 New Units Added 2005 Housing Units 2005-06 New Units Added 2006 Housing Units Route 15 North Total 964 31 995 31 1,026 57 1,083 57 1,140 93 1,233 152 1,385 SFD 933 31 964 31 995 57 1,052 57 1,109 93 1,202 152 1,354 SFA 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 MF 18 0 18 0 18 0 18 0 18 0 18 0 18 Route 15 South Total 938 36 974 14 988 20 1,008 24 1,032 31 1,063 54 1,117 SFD 891 36 927 14 941 20 961 24 985 31 1,016 54 1,070 SFA 23 0 23 0 23 0 23 0 23 0 23 0 23 MF 24 0 24 0 24 0 24 0 24 0 24 0 24 Route 7 West Total 4,468 291 4,759 355 5,114 421 5,535 484 6,019 562 6,581 464 7,045 SFD 3,860 271 4,131 229 4,360 303 4,663 374 5,037 492 5,529 444 5,973 SFA 433 20 453 36 489 57 546 106 652 70 722 20 742 MF 175 0 175 90 265 61 326 4 330 0 330 0 330 Southwest Total 2,698 75 2,773 26 2,799 55 2,854 71 2,925 45 2,970 73 3,043 SFD 2,450 75 2,525 26 2,551 55 2,606 57 2,663 44 2,707 71 2,778 SFA 128 0 128 0 128 0 128 14 142 0 142 2 144 MF 120 0 120 0 120 0 120 0 120 1 121 0 121 Sterling Total 9,983 673 10,656 287 10,943 86 11,029 241 11,270 3 11,273 423 11,696 SFD 4,857 49 4,906 0 4,906 31 4,937 26 4,963 3 4,966 30 4,996 SFA 3,517 176 3,693 110 3,803 55 3,858 145 4,003 0 4,003 0 4,003 MF 1,609 448 2,057 177 2,234 0 2,234 70 2,304 0 2,304 393 2,697 *New units added are reflective of units added from April 2nd of the year to April 1st of the following year. Number of housing units are as of April 1 of the year. Source: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table A-3. 2006 Residential Baseline by Planning Subarea 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-5. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type County-wide Distribution Distribution Within Subareas Planning Subarea Unit Type County-wide Distribution Distribution Within Subareas Total Total 36,086 100% Route 15 North Total 421 1% 100% SFD 17,346 48% SFD 421 1% 100% SFA 11,367 31% SFA 0 0% 0% MF 7,373 20% MF 0 0% 0% Ashburn Total 15,013 42% 100% Route 15 South Total 179 0% 100% SFD 6,060 17% 40% SFD 179 0% 100% SFA 4,517 13% 30% SFA 0 0% 0% MF 4,436 12% 30% MF 0 0% 0% Dulles Total 7,194 20% 100% Route 7 West Total 2,577 7% 100% SFD 3,571 10% 50% SFD 2,113 6% 82% SFA 2,981 8% 41% SFA 309 1% 12% MF 642 2% 9% MF 155 0% 6% Leesburg Total 6,216 17% 100% Southwest Total 345 1% 100% SFD 3,287 9% 53% SFD 328 1% 95% SFA 2,384 7% 38% SFA 16 0% 5% MF 545 2% 9% MF 1 0% 0% Northwest Total 813 2% 100% Sterling Total 1,713 5% 100% SFD 811 2% 100% SFD 139 0% 8% SFA 0 0% 0% SFA 486 1% 28% MF 2 0% 0% MF 1,088 3% 64% Potomac Total 1,615 4% 100% SFD 437 1% 27% SFA 674 2% 42% MF 504 1% 31% Table A-4. New Residential Unit Mix and Distribution by Planning Subarea New Unit Mix 2000-2006 New Unit Mix 2000-2006 New Units 2000-2006 New Units 2000-2006 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-6. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total 55,249 28,661 20,666 104,576 Ashburn 12,775 9,416 9,398 31,589 Dulles 13,360 8,001 4,006 25,367 Leesburg 9,927 7,150 3,500 20,577 Northwest 4,096 0 0 4,096 Potomac 1,465 1,400 2,300 5,165 R15 North 2,405 33 0 2,438 R15 South 1,688 0 0 1,688 R7 West 6,343 1,303 0 7,646 Southwest 2,468 0 0 2,468 Sterling 722 1,358 1,462 3,542 Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development *2000 baseline under Revised Comprehensive Plan Planning Subarea Unbuilt Units as of 2000 Grand Total Table A-5. Estimated Maximum New Units Without Redevelopment, 2000 Baseline* 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-7. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Low Intermediate High 2000 2001 6,363 6,363 6,363 2002 4,482 4,482 4,482 2003 5,789 5,789 5,789 2004 7,057 7,057 7,057 2005 6,592 6,592 6,592 2006 5,803 5,803 5,803 2007 3,100 3,200 3,300 2008 3,000 3,500 4,000 2009 3,000 3,500 4,000 2010 3,000 4,000 4,500 2011 3,300 4,000 4,500 2012 3,300 4,000 4,800 2013 3,800 4,000 5,200 2014 4,000 4,500 6,000 2015 4,000 4,500 6,000 2016 4,200 4,500 6,000 2017 4,200 4,500 6,000 2018 4,300 4,500 6,000 2019 4,300 4,200 5,200 2020 4,000 3,800 4,200 2021 3,800 3,400 3,200 2022 3,400 3,000 2,400 2023 3,400 3,000 1,800 2024 3,000 2,500 1,400 2025 2,400 2,000 1,200 2026 2,400 2,000 1,200 2027 1,800 1,300 1,200 2028 1,800 1,300 1,200 2029 1,600 1,300 1,200 2030 1,600 1,300 1,200 Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table A-6. Alternative Forecasts of New Residential Units 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-8. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000* - - - - - - - - - - - 2001 36.9% 12.4% 22.2% 1.9% 9.2% 0.5% 0.6% 4.6% 1.2% 10.6% 100.0% 2002 38.6% 12.2% 26.9% 1.7% 4.7% 0.7% 0.3% 7.9% 0.6% 6.4% 100.0% 2003 46.2% 10.8% 22.0% 2.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.3% 7.3% 1.0% 1.5% 100.0% 2004 48.4% 25.1% 11.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 6.9% 1.0% 3.4% 100.0% 2005 42.0% 28.7% 13.7% 2.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.5% 8.5% 0.7% 0.0% 100.0% 2006 35.7% 27.1% 10.4% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 0.9% 8.0% 1.3% 7.3% 100.0% 2007 38.9% 31.7% 8.9% 5.0% 1.2% 3.0% 2.2% 7.5% 1.1% 0.5% 100.0% 2008 33.9% 33.8% 11.9% 4.6% 2.3% 2.9% 2.2% 6.5% 1.1% 0.9% 100.0% 2009 33.9% 33.8% 12.4% 4.6% 1.4% 2.9% 2.2% 6.5% 1.4% 0.9% 100.0% 2010 34.0% 34.0% 13.1% 4.1% 1.5% 3.4% 2.1% 5.7% 1.2% 1.0% 100.0% 2011 34.0% 34.0% 13.2% 4.1% 1.7% 3.4% 2.1% 5.3% 1.2% 1.1% 100.0% 2012 34.0% 34.0% 13.2% 4.1% 1.7% 3.4% 2.1% 5.3% 1.2% 1.1% 100.0% 2013 34.0% 34.0% 13.5% 4.1% 1.7% 3.4% 2.1% 5.0% 1.2% 1.1% 100.0% 2014 32.5% 32.5% 17.6% 3.8% 1.5% 3.4% 2.1% 4.5% 1.1% 1.0% 100.0% 2015 31.0% 32.0% 18.2% 4.2% 1.6% 3.7% 2.3% 4.6% 1.3% 1.1% 100.0% 2016 28.0% 33.0% 19.8% 4.2% 1.8% 3.8% 2.3% 4.7% 1.3% 1.1% 100.0% 2017 24.0% 33.0% 20.1% 4.2% 3.2% 3.8% 2.3% 6.6% 1.5% 1.3% 100.0% 2018 20.0% 30.0% 24.0% 4.3% 3.8% 4.0% 2.3% 8.3% 1.7% 1.6% 100.0% 2019 19.5% 28.0% 25.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 2.3% 8.7% 1.8% 1.7% 100.0% 2020 15.0% 28.0% 28.0% 4.6% 5.0% 4.0% 2.3% 9.2% 2.0% 1.9% 100.0% 2021 10.3% 26.1% 31.2% 4.6% 5.7% 4.0% 2.3% 11.2% 2.3% 2.3% 100.0% 2022 5.0% 25.0% 33.1% 4.6% 6.7% 4.0% 2.3% 13.9% 2.7% 2.7% 100.0% 2023 5.0% 25.0% 30.3% 4.6% 7.0% 4.0% 2.3% 14.0% 2.8% 5.0% 100.0% 2024 6.0% 22.0% 29.0% 4.8% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 16.3% 2.9% 6.0% 100.0% 2025 7.0% 18.0% 29.0% 4.8% 8.5% 4.0% 2.0% 15.1% 3.1% 8.5% 100.0% 2026 7.0% 18.0% 29.0% 4.8% 8.5% 4.0% 2.0% 15.0% 3.0% 8.7% 100.0% 2027 10.0% 15.5% 22.0% 6.1% 12.0% 3.2% 1.8% 11.4% 4.3% 13.7% 100.0% 2028 10.0% 15.5% 22.0% 6.1% 12.0% 3.2% 1.8% 11.4% 4.3% 13.7% 100.0% 2029 10.0% 12.0% 22.0% 6.1% 13.9% 3.2% 1.8% 11.3% 4.3% 15.4% 100.0% 2030 10.0% 12.0% 22.0% 6.1% 13.9% 3.2% 1.8% 11.3% 4.3% 15.4% 100.0% Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table A-7(a). Distribution of Future Residential Growth by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-9. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000* - - - - - - - - - - - 2001 2,349 786 1,415 120 587 31 36 291 75 673 6,363 2002 1,730 546 1,204 77 212 31 14 355 26 287 4,482 2003 2,672 623 1,271 118 466 57 20 421 55 86 5,789 2004 3,417 1,771 819 107 66 57 24 484 71 241 7,057 2005 2,771 1,894 906 185 102 93 31 562 45 3 6,592 2006 2,074 1,574 601 206 182 152 54 464 73 423 5,803 2007 1,258 1,027 287 161 40 97 71 242 37 16 3,235 2008 1,185 1,184 415 161 80 102 77 228 37 32 3,500 2009 1,185 1,184 434 161 49 102 77 228 49 32 3,500 2010 1,358 1,358 524 164 60 136 84 228 48 40 4,000 2011 1,358 1,358 528 164 68 136 84 212 48 44 4,000 2012 1,358 1,358 528 164 68 136 84 212 48 44 4,000 2013 1,358 1,358 540 164 68 136 84 200 48 44 4,000 2014 1,462 1,463 792 171 68 153 95 203 50 45 4,500 2015 1,395 1,440 819 189 72 167 104 207 59 50 4,500 2016 1,260 1,485 891 189 81 171 104 212 59 50 4,500 2017 1,080 1,485 905 189 144 171 104 297 68 59 4,500 2018 900 1,350 1,080 194 171 180 104 374 77 72 4,500 2019 819 1,176 1,071 181 176 168 97 365 76 71 4,200 2020 570 1,064 1,064 175 190 152 87 350 76 72 3,800 2021 350 887 1,061 156 194 136 78 381 78 78 3,400 2022 150 750 993 138 201 120 69 417 81 81 3,000 2023 150 750 909 138 210 120 69 420 84 150 3,000 2024 150 550 725 120 175 100 50 408 73 150 2,500 2025 140 360 580 96 170 80 40 302 62 170 2,000 2026 140 360 580 96 170 80 40 300 60 174 2,000 2027 130 202 286 79 156 42 23 148 56 178 1,300 2028 130 202 286 79 156 42 23 148 56 178 1,300 2029 130 156 286 79 181 42 23 147 56 200 1,300 2030 130 156 286 79 181 42 23 147 56 200 1,300 Total 33,159 29,856 22,085 4,301 4,743 3,229 1,872 8,950 1,783 3,942 113,920 2000 Maximum* 31,589 25,367 20,577 4,096 5,165 2,438 1,688 7,646 2,468 3,542 104,576 Difference** 1,570 4,489 1,508 205 -422 791 184 1,304 -685 400 9,344 *Maximum potential new units according to 2000 baseline of Revised General Plan. Table A-7(b). New Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Forecasted total by 2030 incorporates comprehensive plan amendments and approved rezonings that are variances from the planned land use under the Revised General Plan. 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-10. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000* 12,007 3,006 11,940 2,432 13,724 964 938 4,468 2,698 9,983 62,160 2001 14,356 3,792 13,355 2,552 14,311 995 974 4,759 2,773 10,656 68,523 2002 16,086 4,338 14,559 2,629 14,523 1,026 988 5,114 2,799 10,943 73,005 2003 18,758 4,961 15,830 2,747 14,989 1,083 1,008 5,535 2,854 11,029 78,794 2004 22,175 6,732 16,649 2,854 15,055 1,140 1,032 6,019 2,925 11,270 85,851 2005 24,946 8,626 17,555 3,039 15,157 1,233 1,063 6,581 2,970 11,273 92,443 2006 27,020 10,200 18,156 3,245 15,339 1,385 1,117 7,045 3,043 11,696 98,246 2007 28,278 11,227 18,443 3,406 15,379 1,482 1,188 7,287 3,080 11,712 101,481 2008 29,463 12,411 18,858 3,567 15,459 1,584 1,265 7,514 3,117 11,743 104,980 2009 30,648 13,595 19,292 3,728 15,508 1,685 1,342 7,742 3,166 11,775 108,480 2010 32,006 14,953 19,816 3,892 15,568 1,821 1,426 7,970 3,214 11,815 112,480 2011 33,364 16,311 20,344 4,056 15,636 1,957 1,510 8,182 3,262 11,859 116,480 2012 34,722 17,669 20,872 4,220 15,704 2,093 1,594 8,394 3,310 11,903 120,480 2013 36,080 19,027 21,412 4,384 15,772 2,229 1,678 8,594 3,358 11,947 124,480 2014 37,542 20,490 22,204 4,555 15,839 2,382 1,773 8,796 3,407 11,992 128,980 2015 38,937 21,930 23,023 4,744 15,911 2,549 1,876 9,003 3,466 12,041 133,480 2016 40,197 23,415 23,914 4,933 15,992 2,720 1,980 9,215 3,524 12,091 137,980 2017 41,277 24,900 24,818 5,122 16,136 2,891 2,083 9,512 3,592 12,149 142,480 2018 42,177 26,250 25,898 5,316 16,307 3,071 2,187 9,885 3,668 12,221 146,980 2019 42,996 27,426 26,969 5,496 16,484 3,239 2,283 10,251 3,744 12,293 151,180 2020 43,566 28,490 28,033 5,671 16,674 3,391 2,371 10,600 3,820 12,365 154,980 2021 43,916 29,377 29,094 5,827 16,867 3,527 2,449 10,981 3,898 12,443 158,380 2022 44,066 30,127 30,087 5,965 17,068 3,647 2,518 11,398 3,979 12,524 161,380 2023 44,216 30,877 30,996 6,103 17,278 3,767 2,587 11,818 4,063 12,674 164,380 2024 44,366 31,427 31,721 6,223 17,453 3,867 2,637 12,226 4,135 12,824 166,880 2025 44,506 31,787 32,301 6,319 17,623 3,947 2,677 12,528 4,197 12,994 168,880 2026 44,646 32,147 32,881 6,415 17,793 4,027 2,717 12,828 4,257 13,168 170,880 2027 44,776 32,348 33,167 6,495 17,949 4,068 2,740 12,976 4,313 13,346 172,180 2028 44,906 32,550 33,453 6,574 18,105 4,110 2,764 13,124 4,369 13,524 173,480 2029 45,036 32,706 33,739 6,653 18,286 4,152 2,787 13,271 4,425 13,724 174,780 2030 45,166 32,862 34,025 6,733 18,467 4,193 2,810 13,418 4,481 13,925 176,080 Table A-7(c). Cumulative Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-11. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Percent Project Name* SFD SFA MF Total Remaining Alexander's Chase 65 142 0 207 100% Amberleigh 80 64 0 144 100% Belmont Glen Village (Belmont Glen - Rouse Property) 196 0 0 196 100% Broadlands 240 213 314 767 19% Chase at Belmont Country Club, The (Belmont Station ) 50 0 0 50 60% Evergereen Hamlets 65 0 0 65 81% Farmwell (Trask) 12 0 0 12 34% Crossing (Ryan Park Center) 0 117 0 117 24% Goose Creek Preserve 202 128 170 500 100% Goose Creek Village North 0 300 264 564 100% Goose Creek Village South 0 92 0 92 100% Hunt at Belmont Country Club, The (Bles / Weller) 41 0 0 41 31% Huntmoore at Waxpool 0 37 0 37 100% Lansdowne (remainder in Leesburg ) 32 127 1,242 1,401 28% Lansdowne Village Greens 0 204 341 545 100% Loudoun Station 0 0 1,514 1,514 100% Loudoun Valley Estates (Broad Run Meadows, Loudoun Valley Preserve, Churchill Meadows) 435 53 0 488 35% Loudoun Valley Estates II 745 1,071 945 2,761 100% Moorefield Station 50 1,300 4,650 6,000 100% Moreland Estates (Corro Property) 80 0 0 80 100% Potomac Green 502 548 390 1,440 98% Pulte Homes on Croson Lane 84 103 0 187 100% Reserve at Bella Terra, The 41 0 0 41 95% Table A-8. Major Residential Approved Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 Percent or >300 Units Remaining to be Built) Units Remaining to be Built, 1/1/2006 Ashburn 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-12. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Percent Project Name* SFD SFA MF Total Remaining Table A-8. Major Residential Approved Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 Percent or >300 Units Remaining to be Built) Units Remaining to be Built, 1/1/2006 Reserve at Waxpool 25 24 0 49 100% Ryans Corner 0 143 0 143 100% Villages of Waxpool (Overlook at Beaverdam Creek ) 120 0 0 120 62% Ashburn - Total Remaining 3,065 4,666 9,830 17,561 68% Ashburn - Mix of Units Remaining 17% 27% 56% 100% Ashburn (continued) 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-13. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Percent Project Name* SFD SFA MF Total Remaining Table A-8. Major Residential Approved Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 Percent or >300 Units Remaining to be Built) Units Remaining to be Built, 1/1/2006 Dulles Avonlea (Pinebrooke Village, Pinebrooke Estates) 62 334 0 396 97% Blue Springs View 120 0 0 120 100% Braddock Corner 69 90 0 159 100% Braddock Crossing 58 134 0 192 100% Brambleton 2,294 2,404 0 4,698 75% Bridle Ridge (East Riding Estates) 45 0 0 45 100% CD Smith 153 214 88 455 100% Cedar Crest 28 0 0 28 17% Cedar Hunt (Estates at Elk Lick Downs, The) 36 0 0 36 15% Dawson's Corner 224 0 0 224 100% Dean 27 0 0 27 55% Estates at Elk Run 135 71 0 206 100% Frontier Springs 36 43 0 79 100% Graham 0 149 0 149 100% Greene Mill Reserve (Woodland Village) 184 18 0 202 91% Greenfield Crossing 16 91 0 107 100% Huntley Meadows 51 0 0 51 100% Kirkpatrick Farms 750 69 216 1,035 73% Kirkpatrick West 25 24 0 49 100% Marantha Farm 33 0 0 33 100% Masira 108 57 0 165 100% Park Royal 85 0 0 85 100% Poland Road Property 102 0 0 102 52% Providence Glen 20 59 0 79 100% Providence Ridge 11 0 0 11 17% Rosspriory Estates 21 0 0 21 100% South Riding (Katama Woods) 10 0 343 353 6% South Riding Station 274 346 0 620 100% South Village 3 30 0 33 13% Stone Ridge (Amber Spring) 523 513 1,058 2,094 64% 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-14. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Percent Project Name* SFD SFA MF Total Remaining Table A-8. Major Residential Approved Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 Percent or >300 Units Remaining to be Built) Units Remaining to be Built, 1/1/2006 Dulles (continued) Townes at East Gate 57 256 0 313 100% Valley Run Estates 36 0 0 36 100% Westbrook 5 0 0 5 17% Dulles - Total Remaining 5,601 4,902 1,705 12,208 57% Dulles - Mix of Units Remaining 46% 40% 14% 100% 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-15. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Percent Project Name* SFD SFA MF Total Remaining Table A-8. Major Residential Approved Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 Percent or >300 Units Remaining to be Built) Units Remaining to be Built, 1/1/2006 Colts Run 48 0 0 48 98% Emerald Parks Estates 11 0 0 11 35% Evergreen Rural Village 268 24 0 292 96% Goose Creek Bend 32 0 0 32 89% Grenata 42 0 0 42 72% Kingdom Farm 59 0 0 59 100% Lake Hill 48 0 0 48 100% Lakes at Red Rock, The (Northlake) 61 9 0 70 19% Red Cedar 265 36 0 301 95% River Creek 69 168 0 237 18% Rokeby Hamlet 54 0 0 54 63% Stratford (Stowers) 16 262 209 487 35% Woodlea Manor 54 0 0 54 12% Leesburg - Total Remaining 1,027 499 209 1,735 38% Leesburg - Mix of Units Remaining 59% 29% 12% 100% Dale Property 22 0 0 22 100% Deerfield 15 0 0 15 36% Dutchman's Creek Hamlet 48 0 0 48 66% Ecovillage 45 0 0 45 85% New Town Meadows 85 0 0 85 55% Saratoga 56 0 0 56 100% Schoene Property 29 0 0 29 100% Stonebrook Farm Hamlet 16 0 0 16 52% Taylorstown Meadows 10 0 0 10 31% Waterfield Hamlet 4 0 0 4 20% Northwest - Total Remaining 330 0 0 330 64% Northwest - Mix of Units Remaining 100% 0% 0% 100% Leesburg Northwest 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-16. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Percent Project Name* SFD SFA MF Total Remaining Table A-8. Major Residential Approved Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 Percent or >300 Units Remaining to be Built) Units Remaining to be Built, 1/1/2006 Carter's Grove 3 0 0 3 11% Cascades** 426 0 136 562 9% Cascades-Lowes Island Age Restricted Community 0 66 51 117 61% River Bank Woods (Steinberg/Lorey Taylor & Brockman) 17 0 0 17 22% Potomac - Total Remaining 446 66 187 699 10% Potomac - Mix of Units Remaining 64% 9% 27% 100% Churchill Downs 14 0 0 14 42% Elysian Heights 291 33 0 324 97% Tarra Estates 4 0 0 4 10% Historic Selma Estates 176 0 0 176 100% Lee's Crossing 26 0 0 26 54% Raspberry Falls (Moorlands) 63 0 0 63 31% Waterford Ridge 43 0 0 43 37% Rt. 15 North - Total Remaining 617 33 0 650 68% Rt. 15 North - Mix of Units Remaining 95% 5% 0% 100% Barclay Ridge 75 0 0 75 99% Chudleigh 32 0 0 32 100% Courtland Farm 285 0 0 285 99% Rt. 15 South - Total Remaining 392 0 0 392 99% Rt. 15 South - Mix of Units Remaining 100% 0% 0% 100% Potomac Rt. 15 North Rt. 15 South 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-17. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Percent Project Name* SFD SFA MF Total Remaining Table A-8. Major Residential Approved Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 Percent or >300 Units Remaining to be Built) Units Remaining to be Built, 1/1/2006 Autumn Hill 0 492 0 492 100% Chestnut Hills 14 0 0 14 42% Creekside at Round Hill 95 0 0 95 100% Hamilton Ridge (Fawn Meadow, Saddle Ridge) 28 0 0 28 44% Hamlets Of Blue Ridge, The 25 0 0 25 35% Heather Knolls 31 0 0 31 79% Highlands, The 76 0 0 76 72% Hirst Farm 90 0 0 90 38% Manor 8 0 0 8 30% Oak Knoll Farms 28 0 0 28 36% Orchards at Round Hill 16 0 0 16 47% Rose Hill Estates 26 0 0 26 51% Stoneleigh 40 0 0 40 24% Villages at Round Hill 486 0 0 486 43% Village Case, The 66 0 0 66 45% Woodmar Farm 67 0 0 67 100% Wright Farm 56 0 0 56 46% Rt. 7 West - Total Remaining 1,152 492 0 1,644 56% Rt. 7 West - Mix of Units Remaining 70% 30% 0% 100% Fox Run 48 0 0 48 100% Goose Creek Chase 23 0 0 23 96% Kelley 11 0 0 11 55% Silcott Meadow 11 0 0 11 52% Southwest - Total Remaining 93 0 0 93 82% Southwest - Mix of Units Remaining 100% 0% 0% 100% Rt. 7 West Southwest 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-18. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Percent Project Name* SFD SFA MF Total Remaining Table A-8. Major Residential Approved Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 Percent or >300 Units Remaining to be Built) Units Remaining to be Built, 1/1/2006 Brooks Property 17 0 0 17 37% Community Church 0 0 210 210 58% Lochewood Manor (Guilford Crossing ) 21 0 0 21 95% Sterling - Total Remaining 38 0 210 248 58% Sterling - Mix of Units Remaining 15% 0% 85% 100% Grand Total - Total Remaining 12,761 10,658 12,141 35,560 55% Grand Total - Mix of Units Remaining 36% 30% 34% 100% Source: Loudoun County Government, 2005 Annual Growth Summary, Table F7 and Department of Management and Financial Services. Note: Major approved residential projects include projects approved for 20 or more units. * Includes rezonings and by-right projects. Includes Falcon's Landing, Potomac Lakes, Potomac Terrace, Town Center at Westlakes & Potomac Lakes Town Center. Includes Round Hill Rural Estates, Mountain Valley, Lakepoint & The Villages at Round Hill. SFD - Single Family Detached SFA - Single Family Attached MF - Multifamily Sterling Grand Total 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-19. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn 40% 30% 30% 100% 17% 27% 56% 100% Dulles 50% 41% 9% 100% 46% 40% 14% 100% Leesburg 53% 38% 9% 100% 59% 29% 12% 100% Northwest 100% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% Potomac 27% 42% 31% 100% 64% 9% 27% 100% Route 15 North 100% 0% 0% 100% 95% 5% 0% 100% Route 15 South 100% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% Route 7 West 82% 12% 6% 100% 70% 30% 0% 100% Southwest 95% 5% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% Sterling 8% 28% 64% 100% 15% 0% 85% 100% Total 48% 31% 20% 100% 36% 30% 34% 100% Table A-9 Residential Mix by Planning Subarea Planning Subarea New Unit Mix 2000-2006: Distribution Within Subarea Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Distribution Within Subarea 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-20. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn 35% 40% 60% 42% 24% 44% 81% 49% Dulles 21% 26% 9% 20% 44% 46% 14% 34% Leesburg 19% 21% 7% 17% 8% 5% 2% 5% Northwest 5% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 1% Potomac 3% 6% 7% 4% 3% 1% 2% 2% Route 15 North 2% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% 0% 2% Route 15 South 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% Route 7 West 12% 3% 2% 7% 9% 5% 0% 5% Southwest 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Sterling 1% 4% 15% 5% 0% 0% 2% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Planning Subarea Approved Units Remaining to be Built: County-Wide Distribution New Unit Mix 2000-2006: County-Wide Distribution Table A-9 Residential Mix by Planning Subarea 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-21. ---PAGE BREAK--- Average Number Unit Type Value of Units* SFD: less than 1 acre $729,130 2,493 SFA $517,660 1,425 MF (condo) $311,050 1,146 Source: Loudoun County Office of the Assessor * Completed units as of January 1 Table A-10 Value of New Residential Units, 2006 2006 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page A-22. ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix B: Nonresidential Analysis ---PAGE BREAK--- Type 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 High Density Office 181,812 181,812 181,812 411,812 411,812 969,542 1,338,474 1,338,474 1,338,474 1,338,474 1,446,874 1,571,535 Low Density Office 5,254,247 5,445,931 5,914,322 7,527,686 9,236,605 10,713,264 11,188,163 11,344,555 12,306,358 12,622,889 13,243,795 13,802,584 Retail 4,184,726 4,718,009 4,839,287 5,997,765 6,529,895 7,409,876 7,870,894 8,400,812 9,132,284 9,931,957 10,472,665 11,662,437 Other 5,842,289 6,702,232 7,543,569 8,641,780 10,524,426 12,401,889 14,211,294 15,011,510 16,064,540 17,509,452 18,693,717 19,385,988 Flex/Light Industrial 5,884,581 6,147,206 6,924,572 7,837,821 9,055,410 12,262,743 13,623,769 14,038,841 14,507,701 15,794,779 17,137,754 18,680,590 Heavy Industrial 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 Total 21,367,239 23,214,774 25,423,146 30,436,448 35,777,732 43,776,898 48,252,178 50,153,776 53,368,941 57,217,135 61,014,389 65,122,718 Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development based on LMIS Building Permit data Square Footage Permitted Through End of Year Table B-1. Cumulative Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Type 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* High Density Office 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.4% 12.4% Low Density Office 5.0% 2.1% 4.8% 7.8% 9.7% 16.9% 17.4% 13.6% 9.0% 7.9% 9.7% Retail 9.5% 13.5% 13.3% 10.1% 9.5% 10.0% 8.0% 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% Other 7.0% 10.8% 10.6% 8.1% 7.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.8% 8.0% 5.6% 5.0% Flex/Light Industrial 6.7% 5.4% 5.2% 1.9% 5.4% 18.9% 21.4% 19.2% 15.9% 15.1% 14.1% Heavy Industrial NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Costar Realty Information, Inc. (12-8-2006) adjusted by category for office and flex/industrial (Base data from Growth Summary) Note: Vacancy rates are calculated for all commercial space, including owner-occupied. The commercial real estate industry typically reports vacancy rates for "available" space which is generally rental space. *Through 3rd quarter Table B-2. Trends in Nonresidential Vacancy 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Vacancy Rates Square Footage (in 000s) Occupied SF (in 000s) Employees/ Employment Type of Space 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 1,000 SF 2003 2004 2005 High Density Office 13.0% 13.0% 12.4% 1,338 1,338 1,447 1,164 1,164 1,267 3.40 3,959 3,959 4,309 3% Low Density Office 13.6% 9.0% 7.9% 12,306 12,623 13,244 10,633 11,487 12,198 3.17 33,706 36,413 38,666 29.7% Retail 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% 9,132 9,932 10,473 8,566 9,634 10,158 1.50 12,849 14,451 15,238 11.7% Other 6.8% 8.0% 5.6% 16,065 17,509 18,694 14,972 16,109 17,647 1.19 17,817 19,169 21,000 16.1% Flex/Industrial 19.2% 15.9% 15.1% 14,508 15,795 17,138 11,722 13,283 14,550 2.15 25,203 28,559 31,282 24.0% Heavy Industrial NA NA NA 20 20 20 20 20 20 1.83 37 37 37 0.0% Model Employment Estimates Estimated employment linked to nonresidential space (using employees/1,000 SF factors shown above) 93,570 102,589 110,532 84.8% Employment at airport (not included in the employees/1,000 SF factors shown above) 11,595 11,990 11,954 9.2% Additional employment not covered elsewhere (nonspace employment and employment not covered by VEC) 6,713 7,314 7,818 6.0% Total employment 111,878 121,892 130,304 100.0% Estimated Employment from Outside Sources, for Comparison Virginia Employment Commission (VEC) Total Employment (2nd Quarter) 104,514 112,187 119,933 Adjustment for Uncovered Airport Employment 3,390 3,463 2,423 Adjustment for Nonspace and Uncovered Employment 6,521 7,483 8,000 Total employment 114,425 123,133 130,356 Difference Between Model Estimates and Comparison Total (2,547) (1,241) (52) Table B-3. Analysis of Employees per 1,000 SF Background Analysis for Inputs and Assumptions 2005 Employment Distribution 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-3. ---PAGE BREAK--- 2006 Average Unit Type Value* High Density Office $196 Low Density Office $160 Retail $193 Light Industrial $93 Source: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services and Office of the Assessor * Properties completed in multiple years, but fully complete by January 1, 2006 Table B-4. Value of Commercial Property, 2006 Average Values Based on Representative Properties 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution County Northwest Total 61,014,389 100% Total 298,699 0% Route 7 West High Density Office 1,446,874 100% High Density Office 0 0% Total 2,327,454 4% Low Density Office 13,243,795 100% Low Density Office 4,398 0% High Density Office 0 0% Retail 10,472,665 100% Retail 31,405 0% Low Density Office 156,193 1% Other 18,693,717 100% Other 239,793 1% Retail 442,765 4% Flex/Light Industrial 17,137,754 100% Flex/Light Industrial 23,103 0% Other 1,341,706 7% Heavy Industrial 19,584 100% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Flex/Light Industrial 386,790 2% Ashburn Potomac Heavy Industrial 0 0% Total 24,246,781 40% Total 3,519,563 6% Southwest High Density Office 1,266,874 88% High Density Office 0 0% Total 476,726 1% Low Density Office 6,960,472 53% Low Density Office 580,084 4% High Density Office 0 0% Retail 1,584,790 15% Retail 1,083,359 10% Low Density Office 95,995 1% Other 5,678,261 30% Other 1,793,464 10% Retail 138,131 1% Flex/Light Industrial 8,746,156 51% Flex/Light Industrial 62,656 0% Other 224,797 1% Heavy Industrial 10,228 52% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Flex/Light Industrial 17,803 0% Dulles Route 15 North Heavy Industrial 0 0% Total 5,745,029 9% Total 97,427 0% Sterling High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% Total 15,012,379 25% Low Density Office 769,521 6% Low Density Office 1,008 0% High Density Office 180,000 12% Retail 776,191 7% Retail 7,361 0% Low Density Office 2,640,280 20% Other 2,354,138 13% Other 81,697 0% Retail 3,124,200 30% Flex/Light Industrial 1,837,111 11% Flex/Light Industrial 7,361 0% Other 3,646,624 20% Heavy Industrial 8,068 41% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Flex/Light Industrial 5,419,987 32% Leesburg Route 15 South Heavy Industrial 1,288 7% Total 9,217,573 15% Total 72,758 0% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% Low Density Office 2,035,844 15% Low Density Office 0 0% Retail 3,266,770 31% Retail 17,693 0% Other 3,292,881 18% Other 40,356 0% Flex/Light Industrial 622,078 4% Flex/Light Industrial 14,709 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Table B-5. Nonresidential Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2005 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-5. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Low Intermediate High Low Intermediate High 2000* 7,999,166 7,999,166 7,999,166 43,776,898 43,776,898 43,776,898 2001* 4,475,280 4,475,280 4,475,280 48,252,178 48,252,178 48,252,178 2002* 1,901,598 1,901,598 1,901,598 50,153,776 50,153,776 50,153,776 2003* 3,215,165 3,215,165 3,215,165 53,368,941 53,368,941 53,368,941 2004* 3,848,194 3,848,194 3,848,194 57,217,135 57,217,135 57,217,135 2005* 3,797,254 3,797,254 3,797,254 61,014,389 61,014,389 61,014,389 2006* 4,108,329 4,108,329 4,108,329 65,122,718 65,122,718 65,122,718 2007 2,500,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 67,622,718 68,622,718 69,122,718 2008 2,500,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 70,122,718 72,122,718 73,122,718 2009 2,500,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 72,622,718 75,622,718 77,122,718 2010 2,500,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 75,122,718 79,122,718 81,122,718 2011 2,500,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 77,622,718 82,622,718 85,122,718 2012 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 80,622,718 86,622,718 90,122,718 2013 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 83,622,718 90,622,718 95,122,718 2014 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 86,622,718 94,622,718 100,122,718 2015 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 89,622,718 98,622,718 105,122,718 2016 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 92,622,718 102,622,718 110,122,718 2017 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 95,622,718 106,622,718 115,122,718 2018 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 98,622,718 110,622,718 120,122,718 2019 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 101,622,718 114,622,718 125,122,718 2020 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 104,622,718 118,622,718 130,122,718 2021 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 107,622,718 122,622,718 135,122,718 2022 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 110,622,718 126,622,718 140,122,718 2023 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 112,622,718 129,622,718 144,122,718 2024 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 114,622,718 132,622,718 148,122,718 2025 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 116,622,718 135,622,718 152,122,718 2026 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 118,622,718 138,622,718 156,122,718 2027 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 120,622,718 141,622,718 160,122,718 2028 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 122,622,718 144,622,718 164,122,718 2029 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 124,622,718 147,622,718 168,122,718 2030 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 126,622,718 150,622,718 172,122,718 * 2000-2006: actuals New SF Permitted Cumulative SF Permitted Table B-6. Alternative Nonresidential Forecasts 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-6. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Total High Density Office Low Density Office Retail Other Flex/ Light Industrial Heavy Industrial 2000 100.0% 7% 18% 11% 23% 40% 1% 2001 100.0% 8% 11% 10% 40% 30% 1% 2002 100.0% 0% 8% 28% 42% 22% 0% 2003 100.0% 0% 30% 23% 32% 15% 0% 2004 100.0% 0% 8% 21% 38% 33% 0% 2005 100.0% 3% 16% 14% 32% 35% 0% 2006 100.0% 3% 14% 29% 16% 38% 0% 2007 100.0% 3% 18% 22% 23% 34% 0% 2008 100.0% 3% 18% 22% 23% 34% 0% 2009 100.0% 3% 18% 22% 23% 34% 0% 2010 100.0% 3% 18% 22% 23% 34% 0% 2011 100.0% 5% 20% 22% 23% 30% 0% 2012 100.0% 5% 20% 22% 23% 30% 0% 2013 100.0% 5% 20% 22% 23% 30% 0% 2014 100.0% 8% 23% 22% 23% 24% 0% 2015 100.0% 8% 23% 22% 23% 24% 0% 2016 100.0% 9% 23% 22% 23% 23% 0% 2017 100.0% 9% 23% 22% 23% 23% 0% 2018 100.0% 10% 23% 22% 23% 22% 0% 2019 100.0% 10% 23% 22% 23% 22% 0% 2020 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2021 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2022 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2023 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2024 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2025 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2026 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2027 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2028 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2029 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% 2030 100.0% 10% 25% 22% 23% 20% 0% Table B-7(a). Future Mix of New Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage Per Year Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-7. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Total High Density Office Low Density Office Retail Other Flex/ Light Industrial Heavy Industrial 2000 100.0% 7% 18% 11% 23% 40% 1% 2001 100.0% 8% 11% 10% 40% 30% 1% 2002 100.0% 0% 8% 28% 42% 22% 0% 2003 100.0% 0% 30% 23% 32% 15% 0% 2004 100.0% 0% 8% 21% 38% 33% 0% 2005 100.0% 3% 16% 14% 32% 35% 0% 2006 100.0% 3% 14% 29% 16% 38% 0% 2007 100.0% 2% 22% 19% 24% 33% 0% 2008 100.0% 2% 22% 19% 24% 33% 0% 2009 100.0% 2% 22% 19% 24% 33% 0% 2010 100.0% 2% 22% 19% 24% 33% 0% 2011 100.0% 2% 22% 20% 24% 33% 0% 2012 100.0% 3% 25% 21% 25% 25% 0% 2013 100.0% 3% 25% 21% 25% 25% 0% 2014 100.0% 3% 25% 21% 25% 25% 0% 2015 100.0% 3% 25% 21% 25% 25% 0% 2016 100.0% 3% 25% 24% 25% 23% 0% 2017 100.0% 3% 25% 24% 25% 23% 0% 2018 100.0% 6% 28% 22% 25% 20% 0% 2019 100.0% 6% 28% 22% 25% 20% 0% 2020 100.0% 6% 28% 22% 24% 20% 0% 2021 100.0% 6% 28% 22% 24% 20% 0% 2022 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 24% 21% 0% 2023 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 24% 20% 0% 2024 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 24% 21% 0% 2025 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 24% 20% 0% 2026 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 25% 20% 0% 2027 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 25% 19% 0% 2028 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 25% 19% 0% 2029 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 25% 19% 0% 2030 100.0% 6% 27% 22% 25% 19% 0% Table B-7(b). Future Mix of New Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage Per Year Model Results 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-8 ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Projected Mix Planning Subarea Projected Mix Planning Subarea Projected Mix County Northwest Route 7 West High Density Office 100% High Density Office 0% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 100% Low Density Office 0% Low Density Office 0% Retail 100% Retail 0% Retail 5% Other 100% Other 0% Other 5% Flex/Light Industrial 100% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 5% Heavy Industrial 100% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Ashburn Potomac Southwest High Density Office 70% High Density Office 5% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 50% Low Density Office 5% Low Density Office 0% Retail 20% Retail 15% Retail 0% Other 35% Other 10% Other 0% Flex/Light Industrial 35% Flex/Light Industrial 5% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 9% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Dulles Route 15 North Sterling High Density Office 0% High Density Office 0% High Density Office 20% Low Density Office 20% Low Density Office 0% Low Density Office 15% Retail 20% Retail 0% Retail 20% Other 20% Other 0% Other 20% Flex/Light Industrial 30% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 15% Heavy Industrial 90% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 1% Leesburg Route 15 South High Density Office 5% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 10% Low Density Office 0% Retail 20% Retail 0% Other 10% Other 0% Flex/Light Industrial 10% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Table B-8(a). Future Distribution of Nonresidential Space by Type and Planning Subarea Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines for Distribution of Cumulative Nonresidential Space by the Year 2030 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-9 ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Projected Mix Planning Subarea Projected Mix Planning Subarea Projected Mix County Northwest Route 7 West High Density Office 100% High Density Office 0% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 100% Low Density Office 0% Low Density Office 2% Retail 100% Retail 0% Retail 8% Other 100% Other 1% Other 9% Flex/Light Industrial 100% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 4% Heavy Industrial 100% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Ashburn Potomac Southwest High Density Office 70% High Density Office 4% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 49% Low Density Office 5% Low Density Office 0% Retail 22% Retail 8% Retail 1% Other 37% Other 7% Other 1% Flex/Light Industrial 43% Flex/Light Industrial 1% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 8% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Dulles Route 15 North Sterling High Density Office 0% High Density Office 0% High Density Office 20% Low Density Office 16% Low Density Office 0% Low Density Office 15% Retail 21% Retail 0% Retail 19% Other 15% Other 0% Other 17% Flex/Light Industrial 24% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 20% Heavy Industrial 91% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 1% Leesburg Route 15 South High Density Office 5% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 12% Low Density Office 0% Retail 21% Retail 0% Other 13% Other 0% Flex/Light Industrial 7% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Table B-8(b). Future Distribution of Nonresidential Space by Type and Planning Subarea Distribution of Cumulative Nonresidential Space by the Year 2030: Model Results 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-10 ---PAGE BREAK--- Average Planning Subarea 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2001-05 Low High Ashburn 42.0% 41.0% 48.4% 55.9% 47.0% 46.9% 34.0% 44.0% Dulles 6.5% 20.0% 17.5% 17.0% 28.0% 17.8% 19.6% 30.0% Leesburg 13.5% 16.0% 19.0% 1.3% 8.1% 11.6% 10.0% 11.5% Northwest 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Potomac 9.7% 3.0% 2.8% 4.6% 1.4% 4.3% 4.0% 9.0% Route 15 North 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Route 15 South 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Route 7 West 7.3% 8.0% 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 7.0% 7.0% Southwest 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Sterling 20.9% 10.0% 9.6% 20.0% 14.3% 15.0% 11.6% 16.6% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source for 2001-2005 actuals: Annual Growth Summaries for respective years Future year range: Staff forecast based on Fiscal Impact Committee recommendations. Distribution of County-wide Square Footage Permitted Table B-8(c). Nonresidential Square Footage by Planning Subarea Future Distribution of Nonresidential Space by Type and Planning Subarea Model Input Range Future Year 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-11 ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Ashburn Ashbrook 100 60 1,041,000 Ashburn Corporate Center 112 79 1,100,000 Ashburn Center 77 48 440,000 Ashburn Crossroads 35 35 612,000 Ashburn Village Executive Center** 88 82 1,423,000 Beaumeade Corporate Park 629 196 3,200,000 Belmont 55 55 967,000 Brambleton 246 160 2,780,000 Broad Run Business Center 322 88 1,500,000 Broadlands 141 118 1,266,000 Commonwealth Center at Ashburn 231 112 1,949,000 Crosscreek Corporate Center 25 12 213,000 Downs Industrial Park 56 36 626,000 Dulles 2000 29 29 800,000 Dulles Berry 99 80 1,400,000 Dulles Parkway Center** 64 39 680,000 Dulles Summit 78 47 764,000 Dulles Trade Center II 191 46 807,000 Greenway Corporate Park 31 31 534,000 Highpoint Corporate Park 55 55 800,000 Kincora (Ray)** 422 216 3,000,000 Lansdowne Town Center 19 19 280,000 Loudoun Exchange 59 34 596,000 Loudoun Gateway 173 60 1,043,000 Loudoun Parkway Center 210 164 2,500,000 Loudoun Pointe 240 172 3,000,000 Loudoun Square 23 11 189,000 Loudoun Station 50 50 1,880,000 Mercure Business Park 171 36 624,000 Table B-9. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available) 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-12. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Table B-9. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available) Moorefield Station 584 510 9,400,000 One Loudoun Center** 362 266 4,639,000 Paragon Park 151 104 1,800,000 Potomac Farm Business Park 77 77 950,000 RSSJ 202 173 3,000,000 Ryan Park Center 17 13 221,000 TAB I 260 129 2,248,000 University Center 285 119 1,440,000 Verizon Campus 511 296 4,870,000 Waterside (Nattak) 69 64 760,000 West Dulles Station 28 28 492,000 Westwind 606 341 266 4,500,000 Subarea Total 6,918 4,215 70,334,000 Percent 73% 72% 71% Dulles 606 Development Corp**† 80 80 1,393,000 Arcola Center** 390 363 6,329,000 Bryant Dulles Industrial Park 82 82 1,425,000 Eastgate 183 183 3,186,000 Stone Ridge 28 28 485,000 Subarea Total 763 736 12,818,000 Percent 8% 13% 13% 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-13. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Table B-9. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available) Leesburg Battlefield Park (Lee Gate)** 155 115 800,000 Village at Leesburg (Leesburg Commons) 50 50 300,000 Oaklawn at Leesburg 73 73 1,272,000 Subarea Total 278 238 2,372,000 Percent 3% 4% 2% Sterling Centenial Dominion Center 107 100 1,746,000 CIT 60 60 2,610,000 Dulles Commerce Center 42 39 680,000 Dulles International Park 78 42 737,000 Dulles North Corporate Park 88 29 504,000 Dulles Town Center 269 214 3,732,000 Loudoun Tech Center 274 28 420,000 Steeplechase 175 22 324,000 Sterling Park Business Center 119 47 488,000 Tall Oaks 58 38 669,000 TransDulles Centre 162 57 987,000 Woodland 86 21 363,000 Subarea Total 1,518 697 13,260,000 Percent 16% 12% 13% Total 9,477 5,886 98,784,000 Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development-- December 2006 * Maximum FAR **Active rezoning †Typographical error (square feet) corrected after Board of Supervisors adoption. 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-14. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year High Density Office Low Density Office Retail Other Flex/Light Industrial Heavy Industrial 2000 0.0% 9.7% 9.5% 7.0% 5.4% NA 2001 13.0% 16.9% 10.0% 8.0% 18.9% NA 2002 13.0% 17.4% 8.0% 7.0% 21.4% NA 2003 13.0% 13.6% 6.2% 6.8% 19.2% NA 2004 13.0% 9.0% 3.0% 8.0% 15.9% NA 2005 12.4% 7.9% 3.0% 5.6% 15.1% NA 2006* 12.4% 9.7% 2.0% 5.0% 14.1% NA 2007 10.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2008 10.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2009 10.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2010 10.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2011 10.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2012 10.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2013 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2014 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2015 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2016 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2017 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2018 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2019 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2020 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2021 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2022 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2023 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2024 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2025 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2026 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2027 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2028 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2029 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2030 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2000-2005 actuals *2006 through 3rd Q Table B-10. Assumed Vacancy Rates 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page B-15. ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix C: Analysis of Other Demographic and Economic Factors ---PAGE BREAK--- September 30 School Year Year Enrollment 1999-2000 1999 28,787 2000-2001 2000 31,804 2001-2002 2001 34,589 2002-2003 2002 37,532 2003-2004 2003 40,751 2004-2005 2004 44,014 2005-2006 2005 47,361 2006-2007 2006 50,478 Source: Loudoun County Public Schools Table C-1. September Public School Enrollment Trends 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page C-1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Agricultural Land, Classes 500 and 600 Total Fair Market Value of Land $3,937,053,100 Source: Loudoun County FY 07 Adopted Budget Land Values, 2006 Table C-2. 2006 Fiscal Impact Committee Annual Update Page C-2.