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2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal Assumptions and Forecasts Loudoun County Board of Supervisors Fiscal Impact Committee Loudoun County, Virginia February 2008 ---PAGE BREAK--- Fiscal Impact Committee Members Mick Staton, Loudoun County Board Of Supervisors Sam C. Adamo, Loudoun County Public Schools Samer Beidas Steven J. DeLong, Cavalier Land Development Linda Erbs Samuel Hahn Peggy Maio Leonard S. (Hobie) Mitchel, Lansdowne Community Development LLC Staff Support Jill Allmon, Department of Management and Financial Services Robyn Bailey, Department of Economic Development Jack Brown, Department of Management and Financial Services Leslie Hansbarger, Office of the County Administrator Beth Hilkemeyer, Department of Management and Financial Services Benjamin Mays, Department of Management and Financial Services Tricia Simons, Department of Economic Development County of Loudoun 1 Harrison Street SE PO Box 7000 Leesburg, VA 20177 (703)777-0200 ---PAGE BREAK--- 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Executive Summary The Fiscal Impact Committee’s 2007 Guidelines (formerly the Annual Update) reflect the review and analysis of key assumptions that significantly affect residential and nonresidential projections for Loudoun County. This year, after a careful analysis of regional and local trends and supporting information, changes to both development forecasts and demographic and economic assumptions were made. Long-range forecasts were also extended to 2035. The 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines were developed almost one year after the 2006 Annual Update. In the interim, the Committee’s 2006 recommendations were used to develop sub-county forecasts for submission to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) as part of the Round 7.1 regional demographic update. During the development of sub-county forecasts, staff made minor adjustments to the Committee’s planning subarea population, housing, and employment forecasts based on approved projects and land availability. During the Round 7.1 regional reconciliation process, Loudoun reduced its employment forecast, predominantly in the post-2020 time period. While developing its long-range forecasts for residential and nonresidential development, the Committee considered current market conditions, the reduced employment forecast from Round 7.1, and the long-run supply of land. Based on these considerations, the Committee reduced its forecast for residential development through 2017 when compared to Round 7.1, with the greatest reduction in the near-term. The Committee also reduced its nonresidential forecast through 2014 as compared to Round 7.1. Overall, the Committee anticipates the continuation of a slow residential market through at least 2009. Nonresidential development is expected to continue to be strong, but with lower permitting levels than in the recent past. As with previous forecasts, the annual number of new residential units is expected to decline as land available for residential development becomes more scarce. Future residential units were distributed with consideration of the build out capacity in the planning subareas. With the adoption of the Eminent Domain and Protection of Existing Communities comprehensive plan amendment in October 2007, redevelopment in the Potomac and Sterling subareas was removed from the forecasts. Also, the Committee identified the Leesburg planning subarea as an area for further attention during the development of the 2008 Guidelines, as some members were concerned that the estimated build out capacity in this area may be too high. In addition to providing long-range forecasts, the Committee also reviews demographic and economic factors. This year, the Committee changed several vacancy rates, increasing the multi-family vacancy rate, making single-family detached a lower rate than single-family attached, and increasing the low density office rate. The Committee also increased their assumption for the long-run appreciation of residential real property. The following figures provide a visual depiction of the intermediate scenario. ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Population 2007 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Number of Persons ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Housing Units 2007 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Total Housing Units ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Units by Type 2007 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Housing Units - SFD Housing Units - SFA Housing Units - MF Total Housing Units ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted School Enrollment 2007 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Public School Enrollment ---PAGE BREAK--- 0.83 0.47 0.28 Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached Multi-family School Age Children per Household School Age Children by Housing Type 2007 FIC Approved Inputs ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Employment 2007 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Number of Jobs ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Nonresidential SF 2007 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 [PHONE REDACTED] 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 SF Nonresidential Space (millions) ---PAGE BREAK--- Forecasted Nonresidential SF by Type (2005-2035) 2007 FIC Approved Inputs, Intermediate Scenario 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 SF High Density Office SF Low Density Office SF Retail SF Other SF Light Industrial SF Heavy Industrial SF Nonresidential Space (millions) ---PAGE BREAK--- Table Of Contents Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic and Economic 1 Table 2. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Revenues 4 Table 3. Summary of Approved Input and Assumptions Expenditures 5 Table 4. Countywide Intermediate Forecast Loudoun County, 6 Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, 7 Map of Loudoun County Planning Subareas Appendix A: Residential Analysis Table A-1. Residential Units Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2000 Table A-2(a). Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea Table A-2(b). Distribution Within Planning Subareas of Residential Building Permits Issued Table A-2(c). Countywide Distribution of Residential Building Permits Issued Table A-3. Residential Units by Planning Subarea Table A-4. Estimated Maximum New Units Without Redevelopment, 2000 Baseline Table A-5. Alternative Forecasts of Building Permits Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2006 Table A-7(a). Residential Mix by Planning Subarea: Percentage Distribution Within Subarea Table A-7(b). Residential Mix by Planning Subarea: Countywide Percentage Distribution Table A-8(a). Distribution of Future Residential Growth by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Table A-8(b). New Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Table A-8(c). Cumulative Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Table A-9. Value of New Residential Units, 2007 Appendix B: Nonresidential Analysis Table B-1. Cumulative Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage Table B-2. Trends in Nonresidential Vacancy Table B-3. Vacancy Rate Assumptions Table B-4. Analysis of Employees per 1,000 SF Table B-5. Alternative Nonresidential Forecasts Table B-6. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available), 2006 Table B-7. Future Mix of New Nonresidential Square Footage Per Year Table B-8. Nonresidential Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2006 Table B-9. Future Distribution of Nonresidential Space by Type and Planning Subarea, 2035 Table B-10(a). Future Distribution of New Nonresidential Permits: Planning Subarea Table B-10(b). Future Distribution of New Nonresidential Permits: Type Table B-11. Value of Commercial Property, 2007 Appendix C: Analysis of Other Demographic and Economic Factors Table C-1. September Public School Enrollment Trends Table C-2. Personal and Percapita Income Analysis Table C-3(a). Land Values, 2007: Vacant Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Land Table C-3(b). Land Values, 2007: Agricultural Land, Parcels 20 Acres and Larger ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Assumptions and Forecasts ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Approved Inputs Variable 2007 Source/Comments Variable 2007 Source/Comments Residential Components Single-Family Detached Multi-family Number of Units 55,161 Table A-3 Number of Units 16,572 Table A-3 Household Size (Occupied Units) 3.21 FIC, 1/18/07 Household Size (Occupied Units) 2.04 FIC, 1/18/07 School Age Children/New Household 0.83 2005 School Census School Age Children/New Household 0.28 2005 School Census Long-Run Vacancy Rate 4.8% FIC, 11/26/07 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 12.0% FIC, 11/26/07 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0% for two years, then 1.5% FIC, 11/26/07 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0% for two years, then 1.5% FIC, 11/26/07 Property Value (New Units) $717,542 Table A-9 Property Value (New Units) $331,678 Table A-9 Single-Family Attached Number of Units 29,626 Table A-3 Household Size (Occupied Units) 2.72 FIC, 1/18/07 School Age Children/New Household 0.47 2005 School Census Long-Run Vacancy Rate 5.6% FIC, 11/26/07 Long-Run Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 0% for two years, then 1.5% FIC, 11/26/07 Property Value (New Units) $463,125 Table A-9 Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic and Economic 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Approved Inputs Variable 2007 Source/Comments Variable 2007 Source/Comments Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic and Economic Nonresidential Components High Density Office Other Square Feet (000s)* 1,572 Table B-1 Square Feet (000s)* 19,386 Table B-1 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 3.40 Table B-4 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.19 Table B-4 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 10% Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 5% Table B-3 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Value (New Square Feet)** $255 FIC, 12/3/07 Property Value (New Square Feet) N/A Low Density Office Heavy Industrial Square Feet (000s)* 13,803 Table B-1 Square Feet (000s)* 20 Table B-1 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 3.17 Table B-4 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 2.15 Table B-4 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 9% Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate N/A Table B-3 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Value (New Square Feet)** $245 Property Value (New Square Feet) N/A Retail Light Industrial Square Feet (000s)* 11,662 Table B-1 Square Feet (000s)* 18,681 Table B-1 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.50 Table B-4 Employees per 1,000 sq. ft. 1.83 Table B-4 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 8% Table B-3 Long-Run Vacancy Rate 11% Table B-3 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Appreciation Factor (beyond inflation) 1% RGP, 4/24/01 Property Value (New Square Feet)** $240 Table B-11 Property Value (New Square Feet)** $130 Table B-11 * cumulative permitted SF through 2006 based on construction cost, including tenant work 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Approved Inputs Variable 2007 Source/Comments Variable 2007 Source/Comments Table 1. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Demographic and Economic Other Inputs Number of Children in Public Schools 50,478 Table C-1 (Sept. 2006) Undeveloped Land Value (millions) $4,469 Table C-3(a) Per Capita Personal Income $43,956 Table C-2 Agricultural Land Value (millions)* $297 Table C-3(b) * use value 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 3. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Variable 2007 Source/Comments Local Revenues (000s) Real Property Taxes $531,012,828 Department of Management and Financial Services Public Service Property Taxes $13,292,345 Department of Management and Financial Services Personal Property Taxes $81,518,149 Department of Management and Financial Services Property Penalties & Interest $3,992,516 Department of Management and Financial Services Sales Tax $46,045,953 Department of Management and Financial Services Consumer Utility Tax $14,587,835 Department of Management and Financial Services Business License Tax $26,724,382 Department of Management and Financial Services Development Related Permits $14,767,298 Department of Management and Financial Services Other Local Revenues $66,080,958 Department of Management and Financial Services State Revenues (000s) Sales Tax for Education $48,599,342 Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) Basic Aid $72,625,196 Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) Other State Education Aid $25,888,192 LCPS and Dept. of Management and Financial Services Other State Categorical Aid $12,064,464 Department of Management and Financial Services Personal Property Tax Reimbursement $48,026,202 Department of Management and Financial Services State Other $20,111,311 Department of Management and Financial Services Federal Revenues (000s) Federal Categorical $12,935,951 Department of Management and Financial Services Federal Other $1,798 Department of Management and Financial Services Tax Rates Residential Property Tax Rate General Fund $0.917 Department of Management and Financial Services Residential Property Tax Rate Fire/Emergency Medical Service Tax District $0.043 Department of Management and Financial Services Personal Property Tax Rate $4.20 Department of Management and Financial Services Sales Tax Rate 5.0% Department of Management and Financial Services Table 2. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Revenues 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Approved Inputs Variable 2007 Source/Comments Operating Expenditures ($000's) Government Administration $44,356,741 Department of Management and Financial Services Judicial Administration $10,147,329 Department of Management and Financial Services Public Safety $108,576,449 Department of Management and Financial Services Public Works $18,626,316 Department of Management and Financial Services Health & Welfare $58,144,211 Department of Management and Financial Services Education $626,887,346 Department of Management and Financial Services Parks, Recreation & Cultural $36,432,294 Department of Management and Financial Services Community Development $25,318,540 Department of Management and Financial Services Total $928,489,226 Department of Management and Financial Services Table 3. Summary of Approved Inputs and Assumptions Expenditures 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 5. ---PAGE BREAK--- Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Households 59,900 65,357 69,400 74,703 81,258 87,479 92,796 95,666 98,413 100,633 102,692 Population 169,599 185,120 196,314 211,146 229,429 247,342 262,609 271,069 279,082 285,674 291,734 Employment 95,412 106,183 107,330 117,570 123,383 130,308 137,709 145,468 151,592 158,070 164,611 Housing Units Total 62,160 68,523 73,005 78,794 85,851 92,443 98,246 101,359 104,337 106,702 108,884 Single-Family Detached 35,929 38,609 40,436 43,310 46,626 50,124 53,275 55,161 56,736 58,094 59,288 Single-Family Attached 17,389 19,766 21,344 22,952 25,199 27,199 28,756 29,626 30,724 31,604 32,430 Multi-family 8,842 10,148 11,225 12,532 14,026 15,120 16,215 16,572 16,877 17,004 17,166 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Households 105,026 107,598 110,421 113,363 116,506 120,033 123,940 127,905 132,163 136,209 140,036 Population 298,326 305,560 313,356 321,470 330,184 339,847 350,478 361,288 373,089 384,377 395,102 Employment 171,140 177,433 184,297 191,132 198,049 205,667 213,243 220,818 228,639 236,472 243,829 Housing Units Total 111,379 114,133 117,169 120,334 123,714 127,514 131,729 136,005 140,584 144,932 149,044 Single-Family Detached 60,427 61,686 63,001 64,391 65,936 67,562 69,305 71,071 73,151 75,272 77,404 Single-Family Attached 33,306 34,216 35,106 35,986 36,891 37,915 39,037 40,212 41,452 42,499 43,347 Multi-family 17,646 18,231 19,062 19,957 20,887 22,037 23,387 24,722 25,981 27,161 28,293 Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Households 143,388 146,573 149,273 151,588 153,573 155,293 156,688 157,892 159,097 160,339 161,547 Population 404,601 413,733 421,587 428,331 434,145 439,136 443,140 446,533 449,926 453,441 456,884 Employment 250,611 256,075 261,489 265,645 269,713 273,807 277,928 281,694 285,065 288,408 291,694 Housing Units Total 152,646 156,064 158,955 161,434 163,559 165,404 166,904 168,204 169,504 170,844 172,144 Single-Family Detached 79,531 81,711 83,701 85,441 87,011 88,331 89,371 90,211 91,051 91,931 92,811 Single-Family Attached 43,802 44,122 44,323 44,453 44,478 44,498 44,498 44,498 44,498 44,498 44,498 Multi-family 29,313 30,231 30,931 31,540 32,070 32,575 33,035 33,495 33,955 34,415 34,835 Forecast Forecast Forecast 2033 2034 2035 Households 162,668 163,743 164,670 Population 460,052 463,080 465,695 Employment 294,922 297,985 300,937 Housing Units Total 173,354 174,514 175,514 Single-Family Detached 93,601 94,351 95,001 Single-Family Attached 44,498 44,498 44,498 Multi-family 35,255 35,665 36,015 Note: Housing unit totals may not equal the sum of Single-Family Detached, Single-Family Attached, and Multi-family due to rounding. Table 4. Countywide Intermediate Forecast Loudoun County, Virginia 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 6. ---PAGE BREAK--- Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Housing Units 62,160 92,443 98,246 101,359 104,337 106,702 108,884 123,714 144,932 161,434 169,504 175,514 Ashburn 12,007 24,875 26,949 28,177 29,228 29,908 30,578 34,811 40,389 43,053 45,053 46,873 Dulles 3,006 8,630 10,204 11,178 12,284 13,328 14,347 20,292 27,265 32,224 33,574 33,959 Leesburg 11,940 17,558 18,159 18,428 18,650 18,819 18,959 20,691 23,998 27,963 29,882 31,062 Northwest 2,432 3,044 3,250 3,396 3,502 3,602 3,678 4,293 5,446 6,546 7,390 9,045 Potomac 13,724 15,204 15,386 15,436 15,534 15,591 15,640 15,681 15,691 15,801 15,901 15,901 Route 15 North 964 1,238 1,390 1,487 1,596 1,668 1,723 2,153 2,994 3,842 4,402 4,555 Route 15 South 938 1,063 1,117 1,183 1,262 1,312 1,362 1,729 2,222 2,637 2,952 2,974 Route 7 West 4,468 6,565 7,029 7,262 7,437 7,557 7,657 8,567 10,250 12,052 12,689 12,734 Southwest 2,698 3,001 3,074 3,109 3,138 3,208 3,228 3,338 3,743 4,076 4,416 5,166 Sterling 9,983 11,265 11,688 11,703 11,706 11,709 11,712 12,159 12,934 13,240 13,245 13,245 Households 59,900 87,479 92,796 95,666 98,413 100,633 102,692 116,506 136,209 151,588 159,097 164,670 Ashburn 11,509 23,025 24,918 26,042 27,005 27,646 28,277 32,184 37,259 39,642 41,402 43,003 Dulles 2,886 8,130 9,591 10,496 11,519 12,497 13,459 19,023 25,497 30,105 31,367 31,717 Leesburg 11,480 16,748 17,301 17,543 17,750 17,909 18,042 19,641 22,733 26,461 28,287 29,411 Northwest 2,323 2,910 3,102 3,238 3,337 3,431 3,504 4,089 5,187 6,234 7,037 8,613 Potomac 13,437 14,756 14,917 14,963 15,050 15,100 15,143 15,180 15,190 15,293 15,382 15,382 Route 15 North 908 1,169 1,311 1,401 1,503 1,571 1,623 2,033 2,833 3,640 4,174 4,319 Route 15 South 879 1,001 1,051 1,113 1,187 1,234 1,281 1,631 2,100 2,495 2,795 2,816 Route 7 West 4,282 6,256 6,689 6,906 7,069 7,183 7,278 8,141 9,737 11,452 12,058 12,101 Southwest 2,454 2,750 2,818 2,851 2,878 2,944 2,963 3,068 3,453 3,770 4,094 4,808 Sterling 9,742 10,734 11,098 11,112 11,115 11,118 11,121 11,517 12,221 12,496 12,501 12,501 Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, Virginia 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 7. ---PAGE BREAK--- Table 5. Intermediate Forecast by Planning Subarea Loudoun County, Virginia Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Population 169,599 247,342 262,609 271,069 279,082 285,674 291,734 330,184 384,377 428,331 449,926 465,695 Ashburn 33,581 64,924 70,294 73,508 76,252 78,160 79,998 90,195 102,360 107,621 111,212 114,479 Dulles 7,795 22,944 27,270 29,960 32,920 35,770 38,584 54,309 71,825 84,668 88,390 89,264 Leesburg 31,840 47,170 48,757 49,420 50,045 50,529 50,928 55,239 64,326 75,533 81,375 84,981 Northwest 6,499 8,337 8,953 9,388 9,698 9,994 10,218 12,081 15,605 18,966 21,545 26,603 Potomac 39,115 42,672 43,049 43,176 43,382 43,486 43,576 43,660 43,691 43,978 44,164 44,164 Route 15 North 2,506 3,325 3,780 4,069 4,387 4,600 4,768 6,082 8,652 11,243 12,955 13,422 Route 15 South 2,403 2,785 2,947 3,144 3,378 3,530 3,683 4,804 6,311 7,579 8,541 8,609 Route 7 West 12,354 18,300 19,680 20,378 20,902 21,266 21,571 24,227 29,132 34,627 36,574 36,712 Southwest 6,056 6,971 7,189 7,291 7,373 7,586 7,647 7,983 9,220 10,238 11,277 13,569 Sterling 27,450 29,914 30,690 30,735 30,744 30,753 30,762 31,603 33,256 33,877 33,892 33,892 Employment 95,412 130,308 137,709 145,468 151,592 158,070 164,611 198,049 236,472 265,645 285,065 300,937 Ashburn 34,108 50,821 54,639 59,062 62,233 65,177 68,027 81,115 96,141 108,238 117,379 125,285 Dulles 16,348 22,070 23,861 25,038 26,016 27,431 28,943 37,509 46,670 54,032 57,363 59,714 Leesburg 11,850 17,028 17,599 17,977 18,794 19,625 20,532 26,365 32,752 37,510 41,087 43,949 Northwest 540 630 647 663 677 753 826 906 1,140 1,235 1,305 1,430 Potomac 5,145 6,718 6,809 6,954 6,963 7,172 7,339 7,603 7,696 7,873 7,994 7,960 Route 15 North 208 223 240 263 272 286 299 361 448 528 581 595 Route 15 South 169 187 196 233 255 266 277 333 393 440 474 482 Route 7 West 2,422 3,873 4,007 4,265 4,343 4,689 5,033 6,821 8,621 10,151 11,117 11,887 Southwest 1,047 1,012 1,018 1,026 1,402 1,458 1,487 1,524 1,569 1,605 1,639 1,700 Sterling 23,568 27,742 28,693 29,987 30,637 31,214 31,847 35,511 41,042 44,032 46,127 47,935 Note: Totals may not equal the sum of the planning subareas due to rounding. 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page 8. ---PAGE BREAK--- 50 15 15 7 9 287 28 267 7 Leesburg Purcellville Middleburg Round Hill Hamilton Hillsboro Lovettsville Washington Dulles International Airport Route 15 North Route 15 South Southwest Dulles Ashburn Potomac Sterling Leesburg Route 7 West Northwest P o t o m a c R i v e r Fauquier County, VA Prince William County, VA Clarke County, VA Jefferson County, WV Fairfax County, VA City of Fairfax Montgomery County, MD Frederick County, MD Washington County, MD Planning Subareas L o u d o u n C o u n t y ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix A: Residential Analysis ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Total SFD SFA MF Ashburn 12,007 5,540 4,341 2,126 Dulles 3,006 1,800 938 268 Leesburg 11,940 5,966 2,980 2,994 Northwest 2,432 2,333 88 11 Potomac 13,724 7,299 4,928 1,497 Route 15 North 964 933 13 18 Route 15 South 938 891 23 24 Route 7 West 4,468 3,860 433 175 Southwest 2,698 2,450 128 120 Sterling 9,983 4,857 3,517 1,609 Total 62,160 35,929 17,389 8,842 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000. Compiled by Loudoun County Government, Department of Planning. Table A-1. Residential Units Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2000 Number of Housing Units 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-1.. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Total 6,134 4,712 5,976 6,657 6,593 5,065 3,061 SFD 2,680 1,827 2,874 3,316 3,498 3,151 1,886 SFA 2,377 1,578 1,608 2,247 2,000 1,557 870 MF 1,077 1,307 1,494 1,094 1,095 357 305 Ashburn Total 2,395 1,817 3,275 2,444 2,854 1,825 1,171 SFD 657 486 1,253 1,209 1,337 1,118 659 SFA 1,040 546 634 820 1,019 458 320 MF 698 785 1,388 415 498 249 192 Dulles Total 679 504 651 2,148 1,507 1,556 1,031 SFD 351 250 368 925 884 793 500 SFA 286 254 255 818 605 763 474 MF 42 0 28 405 18 0 57 Leesburg Total 1,435 1,330 1,104 1,037 762 631 161 SFD 860 638 588 499 421 281 145 SFA 530 521 512 316 263 242 16 MF 45 171 4 222 78 108 0 Northwest Total 120 77 118 108 185 205 146 SFD 120 77 118 107 184 205 142 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 MF 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 Potomac Total 580 477 176 116 159 75 106 SFD 230 76 81 38 9 3 3 SFA 325 111 95 28 43 72 47 MF 25 290 0 50 107 0 56 Table A-2(a). Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Route 15 North Total 31 31 57 57 93 152 97 SFD 31 31 57 57 93 152 94 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 MF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 15 South Total 36 14 20 24 31 54 66 SFD 36 14 20 24 31 54 66 SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 7 West Total 381 326 364 480 562 464 233 SFD 271 229 303 374 492 444 233 SFA 20 36 57 106 70 20 0 MF 90 61 4 0 0 0 0 Southwest Total 75 26 55 72 44 73 35 SFD 75 26 55 57 44 71 29 SFA 0 0 0 14 0 2 6 MF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Sterling Total 402 110 156 171 396 30 15 SFD 49 0 31 26 3 30 15 SFA 176 110 55 145 0 0 0 MF 177 0 70 0 393 0 0 Source: 2006 Annual Growth Summary, Table F-5 and Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table A-2(a). Residential Building Permits Issued by Planning Subarea 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-3. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 44% 39% 48% 50% 53% 62% 62% SFA 39% 33% 27% 34% 30% 31% 28% MF 18% 28% 25% 16% 17% 7% 10% Ashburn Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 27% 27% 38% 49% 47% 61% 56% SFA 43% 30% 19% 34% 36% 25% 27% MF 29% 43% 42% 17% 17% 14% 16% Dulles Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 52% 50% 57% 43% 59% 51% 48% SFA 42% 50% 39% 38% 40% 49% 46% MF 6% 0% 4% 19% 1% 0% 6% Leesburg Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 60% 48% 53% 48% 55% 45% 90% SFA 37% 39% 46% 30% 35% 38% 10% MF 3% 13% 0% 21% 10% 17% 0% Northwest Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 97% SFA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% MF 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Potomac Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 40% 16% 46% 33% 6% 4% 3% SFA 56% 23% 54% 24% 27% 96% 44% MF 4% 61% 0% 43% 67% 0% 53% Table A-2(b). Distribution Within Planning Subareas of Residential Building Permits Issued 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Route 15 North Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% SFA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% MF 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 15 South Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% MF 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 7 West Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 71% 70% 83% 78% 88% 96% 100% SFA 5% 11% 16% 22% 12% 4% 0% MF 24% 19% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Southwest Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 100% 100% 100% 79% 100% 97% 83% SFA 0% 0% 0% 19% 0% 3% 17% MF 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Sterling Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% SFD 12% 0% 20% 15% 1% 100% 100% SFA 44% 100% 35% 85% 0% 0% 0% MF 44% 0% 45% 0% 99% 0% 0% Source: 2006 Annual Growth Summary, Table F-5 and Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Distribution Within Planning Subareas of Residential Building Permits Issued Table A-2(b). 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-5. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ashburn 39% 39% 55% 37% 43% 36% 38% Dulles 11% 11% 11% 32% 23% 31% 34% Leesburg 23% 28% 18% 16% 12% 12% 5% Northwest 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% Potomac 9% 10% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% Route 15 North 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% Route 15 South 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% Route 7 West 6% 7% 6% 7% 9% 9% 8% Southwest 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Sterling 7% 2% 3% 3% 6% 1% 0% SFD 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ashburn 25% 27% 44% 36% 38% 35% 35% Dulles 13% 14% 13% 28% 25% 25% 27% Leesburg 32% 35% 20% 15% 12% 9% 8% Northwest 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 7% 8% Potomac 9% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% Route 15 North 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 5% Route 15 South 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% Route 7 West 10% 13% 11% 11% 14% 14% 12% Southwest 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% Sterling 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% Countywide Distribution of Residential Building Permits Issued Table A-2(c). 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-6. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 SFA 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ashburn 44% 35% 39% 36% 51% 29% 37% Dulles 12% 16% 16% 36% 30% 49% 54% Leesburg 22% 33% 32% 14% 13% 16% 2% Northwest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Potomac 14% 7% 6% 1% 2% 5% 5% Route 15 North 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 15 South 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 7 West 1% 2% 4% 5% 4% 1% 0% Southwest 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Sterling 7% 7% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% MF 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ashburn 65% 60% 93% 38% 45% 70% 63% Dulles 4% 0% 2% 37% 2% 0% 19% Leesburg 4% 13% 0% 20% 7% 30% 0% Northwest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Potomac 2% 22% 0% 5% 10% 0% 18% Route 15 North 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 15 South 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Route 7 West 8% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Southwest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Sterling 16% 0% 5% 0% 36% 0% 0% Source: 2006 Annual Growth Summary, Table F-5 and Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table A-2(c). Countywide Distribution of Residential Building Permits Issued 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-7. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 Housing Units 2001 Housing Units 2002 Housing Units 2003 Housing Units 2004 Housing Units 2005 Housing Units 2006 Housing Units 2007 Housing Units Total Total 62,160 68,523 73,005 78,794 85,851 92,443 98,246 101,359 SFD 35,929 38,609 40,436 43,310 46,626 50,124 53,275 55,161 SFA 17,389 19,766 21,344 22,952 25,199 27,199 28,756 29,626 MF 8,842 10,148 11,225 12,532 14,026 15,120 16,215 16,572 Ashburn Total 12,007 14,356 16,086 18,758 22,175 24,875 26,949 28,177 SFD 5,540 6,197 6,683 7,936 9,145 10,470 11,588 12,247 SFA 4,341 5,381 5,927 6,561 7,381 8,396 8,854 9,174 MF 2,126 2,778 3,476 4,261 5,649 6,009 6,507 6,756 Dulles Total 3,006 3,792 4,338 4,961 6,732 8,630 10,204 11,178 SFD 1,800 2,151 2,401 2,769 3,694 4,583 5,376 5,876 SFA 938 1,224 1,478 1,733 2,551 3,156 3,919 4,393 MF 268 417 459 459 487 891 909 909 Leesburg Total 11,940 13,355 14,559 15,830 16,649 17,558 18,159 18,428 SFD 5,966 6,826 7,464 8,052 8,551 8,960 9,241 9,386 SFA 2,980 3,510 4,031 4,543 4,859 5,122 5,364 5,380 MF 2,994 3,019 3,064 3,235 3,239 3,476 3,554 3,662 Northwest Total 2,432 2,552 2,629 2,747 2,854 3,044 3,250 3,396 SFD 2,333 2,453 2,530 2,648 2,755 2,944 3,149 3,291 SFA 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 92 MF 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 Potomac Total 13,724 14,311 14,523 14,989 15,055 15,204 15,386 15,436 SFD 7,299 7,529 7,605 7,686 7,724 7,736 7,739 7,742 SFA 4,928 5,253 5,364 5,459 5,487 5,535 5,607 5,654 MF 1,497 1,529 1,554 1,844 1,844 1,933 2,040 2,040 *Number of housing units are as of April 1 of the year. Table A-3. Residential Units by Planning Subarea 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-8. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Unit Type 2000 Housing Units 2001 Housing Units 2002 Housing Units 2003 Housing Units 2004 Housing Units 2005 Housing Units 2006 Housing Units 2007 Housing Units Route 15 North Total 964 995 1,026 1,083 1,140 1,238 1,390 1,487 SFD 933 964 995 1,052 1,109 1,207 1,359 1,453 SFA 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 16 MF 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Route 15 South Total 938 974 988 1,008 1,032 1,063 1,117 1,183 SFD 891 927 941 961 985 1,016 1,070 1,136 SFA 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 MF 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Route 7 West Total 4,468 4,759 5,114 5,535 6,019 6,565 7,029 7,262 SFD 3,860 4,131 4,360 4,663 5,037 5,507 5,951 6,184 SFA 433 453 489 546 652 721 741 741 MF 175 175 265 326 330 337 337 337 Southwest Total 2,698 2,773 2,799 2,854 2,925 3,001 3,074 3,109 SFD 2,450 2,525 2,551 2,606 2,663 2,738 2,809 2,838 SFA 128 128 128 128 142 142 144 150 MF 120 120 120 120 120 121 121 121 Sterling Total 9,983 10,656 10,943 11,029 11,270 11,265 11,688 11,703 SFD 4,857 4,906 4,906 4,937 4,963 4,963 4,993 5,008 SFA 3,517 3,693 3,803 3,858 4,003 4,003 4,003 4,003 MF 1,609 2,057 2,234 2,234 2,304 2,299 2,692 2,692 *Number of housing units are as of April 1 of the year. Source: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table A-3. Residential Units by Planning Subarea 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-9. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total 55,249 28,661 20,666 104,576 Ashburn 12,775 9,416 9,398 31,589 Dulles 13,360 8,001 4,006 25,367 Leesburg 9,927 7,150 3,500 20,577 Northwest 4,096 0 0 4,096 Potomac 1,465 1,400 2,300 5,165 R15 North 2,405 33 0 2,438 R15 South 1,688 0 0 1,688 R7 West 6,343 1,303 0 7,646 Southwest 2,468 0 0 2,468 Sterling 722 1,358 1,462 3,542 *2000 baseline under the Revised General Plan Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development. Table A-4. Estimated Maximum New Units Without Redevelopment, 2000 Baseline* Planning Subarea Unbuilt Units as of 2000 Grand Total 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-10. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Low Intermediate High 2000* 6,134 6,134 6,134 2001* 4,712 4,712 4,712 2002* 5,976 5,976 5,976 2003* 6,657 6,657 6,657 2004* 6,593 6,593 6,593 2005* 5,065 5,065 5,065 2006* 3,061 3,061 3,061 2007** 2,500 2,800 3,000 2008 2,000 2,400 2,800 2009 2,100 2,500 2,800 2010 2,100 2,600 3,100 2011 2,500 3,000 3,500 2012 2,600 3,100 3,500 2013 2,700 3,200 3,500 2014 3,000 3,600 3,800 2015 3,400 4,000 4,300 2016 3,700 4,200 4,500 2017 3,700 4,200 4,700 2018 4,000 4,500 5,000 2019 4,200 4,300 4,500 2020 4,200 4,000 3,800 2021 4,000 3,500 3,300 2022 3,600 3,200 3,000 2023 3,200 2,800 2,600 2024 2,600 2,400 2,100 2025 2,300 2,100 1,900 2026 2,000 1,800 1,600 2027 1,800 1,500 1,300 2028 1,600 1,300 1,100 2029 1,600 1,300 1,100 2030 1,600 1,300 1,100 2031 1,600 1,300 1,100 2032 1,400 1,200 1,000 2033 1,300 1,100 1,000 2034 1,300 1,[PHONE REDACTED] 1,300 1,000 800 * 2000-2006: actuals 2007 from January through September had 2,244 residential permits issued. Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table A-5. Alternative Forecasts of Building Permits 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-11. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Project Name*(1) SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total 7,991 8,136 15,178 31,305 5,122 3,527 3,340 11,989 2,906 4,571 11,839 19,316 38% Alexander's Chase 65 142 0 207 0 0 0 0 65 142 0 207 0% Amberleigh 80 64 0 144 29 20 0 49 51 44 0 95 34% Ashburn Place 27 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 27 0 0 27 0% Belmont*(2) 1,101 849 198 2,148 1,055 865 198 2,118 30 0 0 30 99% Belmont Glen Village (Belmont Glen - Rouse Property) 196 0 0 196 0 0 0 0 196 0 0 196 0% Belmont Ridge 0 29 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 29 0% Broadlands 1,946 1,225 846 4,017 1,722 1,016 532 3,270 224 209 314 747 81% Erickson Retirement*(3) 0 0 2,108 2,108 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,108 2,108 0% Evergreen Hamlets*(4) 80 0 0 80 22 0 0 22 58 0 0 58 28% Crossing (Ryan Park Center) 0 250 228 478 0 133 228 361 0 117 0 117 76% Goose Creek Preserve 202 128 170 500 0 0 0 0 202 128 170 500 0% Goose Creek Village North 0 300 264 564 0 0 0 0 0 300 264 564 0% Goose Creek Village South 0 92 0 92 0 0 0 0 0 92 0 92 0% Huntmoore at Waxpool 0 37 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 37 0% Lansdowne (Lansdowne Village Greens, Leisure World)*(5) 1,222 1,049 3,327 5,598 1,276 758 1,843 3,877 0 237 1,484 1,721 69% Loudoun Parkway Center 142 330 538 1,010 50 330 539 919 91 0 0 91 91% Loudoun Station 0 0 1,514 1,514 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,514 1,514 0% Loudoun Valley Estates (Broad Run Meadows, Loudoun Valley Preserve, Churchill Meadows) 1,099 288 0 1,387 688 274 0 962 411 14 0 425 69% Loudoun Valley Estates II 745 1,071 945 2,761 0 0 0 0 745 1,071 945 2,761 0% Moorefield Station 50 1,300 4,650 6,000 0 0 0 0 50 1,300 4,650 6,000 0% Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/07 Units Remaining to be Built Percent Complete Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2006 Ashburn Total Approved Units 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-12. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Project Name*(1) SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn, continued Moreland Estates (Corro Property) 80 0 0 80 8 0 0 8 72 0 0 72 10% Potomac Green 511 572 390 1,473 153 131 0 284 358 441 390 1,189 19% Pulte Homes on Croson Lane 84 103 0 187 0 0 0 0 84 103 0 187 0% Reserve at Bella Terra, The 43 0 0 43 21 0 0 21 22 0 0 22 49% Reserve at Waxpool 25 24 0 49 0 0 0 0 25 24 0 49 0% Ryans Corner 0 143 0 143 0 0 0 0 0 143 0 143 0% Station View 0 47 0 47 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 47 0% Stonegate 100 93 0 193 0 0 0 0 100 93 0 193 0% Villages of Waxpool (Overlook at Beaverdam Creek) 193 0 0 193 98 0 0 98 95 0 0 95 51% Dulles 10,391 9,271 3,723 23,385 4,616 4,079 1,229 9,924 5,792 5,504 2,165 13,461 42% Avonlea (Pinebrooke Village, Pinebrooke Estates) 65 343 0 408 11 69 0 80 54 274 0 328 20% Blue Spring Farm 67 0 0 67 64 0 0 64 3 0 0 3 96% Braddock Corner 69 90 0 159 20 17 0 37 49 73 0 122 23% Braddock Crossing 58 134 0 192 0 0 0 0 58 134 0 192 0% Brambleton*(4) 3,050 2,757 433 6,240 947 551 433 1,931 2,103 2,206 0 4,309 31% CD Smith 153 214 88 455 0 0 0 0 153 214 88 455 0% Cedar Hunt (Estates at Elk Lick Downs, The) 244 0 0 244 236 0 0 236 8 0 0 8 97% Dawson's Corner 224 0 0 224 0 0 0 0 224 0 0 224 0% Dean 49 0 0 49 28 0 0 28 21 0 0 21 57% East Gate One 0 193 206 399 0 0 0 0 0 193 206 399 0% East Gate Three 0 0 222 222 0 0 0 0 0 0 222 222 0% Estates at Elk Run 135 71 0 206 0 0 0 0 135 71 0 206 0% Frontier Springs 36 43 0 79 0 0 0 0 36 43 0 79 0% Graham 0 149 0 149 0 0 0 0 0 149 0 149 0% Greene Mill Reserve (Woodland Village) 202 21 0 223 18 3 0 21 184 18 0 202 9% Greenfield Crossing 16 91 0 107 0 0 0 0 16 91 0 107 0% Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/07 Units Remaining to be Built Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2006 Percent Complete 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-13. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Project Name*(1) SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Dulles, continued Kimmitt Property 51 48 0 99 0 0 0 0 51 48 0 99 0% Kirkpatrick Farms 953 248 216 1,417 305 300 0 605 648 60 104 812 43% Kirkpatrick West 25 24 0 49 0 0 0 0 25 24 0 49 0% Marbury 227 8 0 235 0 0 0 0 227 8 0 235 0% Masira 108 57 0 165 0 0 0 0 108 57 0 165 0% Park Royal 85 0 0 85 0 0 0 0 85 0 0 85 0% Poland Road Property 195 0 0 195 118 0 0 118 77 0 0 77 61% Providence Glen 20 59 0 79 0 0 0 0 20 59 0 79 0% Reserve at South Riding 9 78 0 87 0 0 0 0 9 78 0 87 0% Rosspriory Estates 21 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 21 0% Seven Hills 624 276 212 1,112 0 0 0 0 624 276 212 1,112 0% South Riding (Katama Woods) 2,415 2,320 980 5,715 2,432 2,400 637 5,469 0 120 126 246 96% South Riding Station 274 346 0 620 15 0 0 15 259 346 0 605 2% Stone Ridge (Amber Spring) 853 1,252 1,160 3,265 397 739 159 1,295 456 513 1,001 1,970 40% Townes at East Gate 57 256 0 313 0 0 0 0 57 256 0 313 0% Treburg 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 41 0% Valley Run Estates 36 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 36 0% Westbrook 29 0 0 29 25 0 0 25 4 0 0 4 86% Wright Property 0 193 206 399 0 0 0 0 0 193 206 399 0% Leesburg 2,168 1,409 893 4,470 1,471 850 300 2,621 655 388 593 1,636 62% Beacon Hill (remainder in Route 15 North) 215 0 0 215 205 0 0 205 10 0 0 10 95% Colts Run 49 0 0 49 1 0 0 1 48 0 0 48 2% Emerald Parks Estates 31 0 0 31 29 0 0 29 2 0 0 2 94% Evergreen Rural Village 281 24 0 305 42 24 0 66 239 0 0 239 22% Goose Creek Bend 36 0 0 36 8 0 0 8 28 0 0 28 22% Grenata 58 0 0 58 27 0 0 27 31 0 0 31 47% Kingdom Farm 59 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 59 0 0 59 0% Red Cedar 281 36 0 317 91 16 0 107 190 20 0 210 34% River Creek*(6) 590 760 0 1,350 522 589 0 1,111 26 0 0 26 98% Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2006 Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/07 Units Remaining to be Built Percent Complete 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-14. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Project Name*(1) SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Leesburg, continued Rokeby Hamlet*(4) 86 0 0 86 64 0 0 64 22 0 0 22 74% Stratford (Stowers, Oaklawn) 482 547 300 1,329 482 221 300 1,003 0 326 0 326 75% Village at Leesburg 0 42 593 635 0 0 0 0 0 42 593 635 0% Northwest 663 80 0 743 243 2 0 245 420 78 0 498 33% Dale Property 22 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 22 0% Dutchman's Creek Hamlet 73 0 0 73 25 0 0 25 48 0 0 48 34% Ecovillage 29 0 0 29 8 0 0 8 21 0 0 21 28% Kingsridge Estates 80 0 0 80 37 0 0 37 43 0 0 43 46% Retirement Village 0 80 0 80 0 2 0 2 0 78 0 78 3% Lovettsville Town Center 206 0 0 206 13 0 0 13 193 0 0 193 6% New Town Meadows 155 0 0 155 112 0 0 112 43 0 0 43 72% Saratoga 21 0 0 21 7 0 0 7 14 0 0 14 33% Schoene Property 29 0 0 29 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 29 0% Stonebrook Farms Hamlet 28 0 0 28 23 0 0 23 5 0 0 5 82% Waterfield Hamlet 20 0 0 20 18 0 0 18 2 0 0 2 90% Potomac 3,076 2,230 1,510 6,816 2,642 2,270 1,430 6,342 8 7 80 95 99% Cascades*(7) 3,024 2,040 1,510 6,574 2,598 2,087 1,430 6,115 0 0 80 80 99% Westerley (Route 7 Partners) 52 190 0 242 44 183 0 227 8 7 0 15 94% Rt. 15 North 935 33 0 968 371 3 0 374 564 30 0 594 39% Beacon Hill (remainder in Leesburg) 38 0 0 38 29 0 0 29 9 0 0 9 76% Churchill Downs 33 0 0 33 29 0 0 29 4 0 0 4 88% Elysian Heights 301 33 0 334 58 3 0 61 243 30 0 273 18% Historic Selma Estates 176 0 0 176 1 0 0 1 175 0 0 175 1% Lee's Crossing 63 0 0 63 24 0 0 24 39 0 0 39 38% Raspberry Falls (Moorlands, Plains of Raspberry) 205 0 0 205 144 0 0 144 61 0 0 61 70% Waterford Ridge 119 0 0 119 86 0 0 86 33 0 0 33 72% Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2006 Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/07 Units Remaining to be Built Percent Complete 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-15. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Project Name*(1) SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Rt. 15 South 396 0 0 396 41 0 0 41 355 0 0 355 10% Estates at Creighton Farms 76 0 0 76 1 0 0 1 75 0 0 75 1% Chudleigh Farms 32 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 32 0% Courtland Farm (Courtland Rural Village) 288 0 0 288 40 0 0 40 248 0 0 248 14% Rt. 7 West 2,185 607 0 2,792 1,232 115 0 1,347 953 492 0 1,445 48% Autumn Hill 0 492 0 492 0 0 0 0 0 492 0 492 0% Creekside at Round Hill 95 0 0 95 0 0 0 0 95 0 0 95 0% Hamilton Ridge (Fawn Meadow, Saddle Ridge) 63 0 0 63 35 0 0 35 28 0 0 28 56% Hamlets Of Blue Ridge, The 71 0 0 71 54 0 0 54 17 0 0 17 76% Heather Knolls 61 0 0 61 8 0 0 8 53 0 0 53 13% Highlands, The 98 0 0 98 50 0 0 50 48 0 0 48 51% Hirst Farm 240 0 0 240 178 0 0 178 62 0 0 62 74% Oak Knoll Farms 74 0 0 74 60 0 0 60 14 0 0 14 81% Stoneleigh 142 0 0 142 130 0 0 130 12 0 0 12 92% Villages at Round Hill 1,009 115 0 1,124 533 115 0 648 476 0 0 476 58% Village Case, The 146 0 0 146 87 0 0 87 59 0 0 59 60% Woodmar Farm 67 0 0 67 9 0 0 9 58 0 0 58 13% Wright Farm 119 0 0 119 88 0 0 88 31 0 0 31 74% Southwest 69 0 0 69 12 0 0 12 57 0 0 57 17% Fox Run 48 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 48 0% Kelley 21 0 0 21 12 0 0 12 9 0 0 9 57% Table A-6. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2006 Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/07 Units Remaining to be Built Percent Complete 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-16. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea/ Project Name*(1) SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Sterling 0 42 360 402 0 0 150 150 0 42 210 252 37% Community Church 0 0 360 360 0 0 150 150 0 0 210 210 42% Hall Road Property 0 42 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 42 0% Total 27,874 21,808 21,664 71,346 15,750 10,846 6,449 33,045 11,710 11,112 14,887 37,709 47% Source: Table F-7, Loudoun County 2006 Annual Growth Summary. Major Approved Residential Projects (20+ Units), 2006 Table A-6. Total Approved Units Units Built or Permitted as of 1/1/07 Units Remaining to be Built Percent Complete Includes rezonings and by-right projects. Includes Belmont, Chase at Belmont Country Club, Hunt at Belmont Country Club. For consistency with the U.S. Census Bureau's approach to calculating population and housing units, Erickson's units will not be included in the calculation of housing units (Table F-1). However, Erickson's construction will be tracked in Tables F-6 and F-7 and its population will be included in Table A-1. Project covers multiple subareas. Units shown are those approved for the entire project and are representative of all subareas that the project covers. Notes: SFD (Single-Family Detached), SFA (Single-Family Attached), MF (Multi-family) This table provides staff's best estimates of development, based on the approval documents (for "Total Approved Units"), building permits issued, and data in the county's geographic information system. "Units Remaining to be Built" generally reflects the difference between the total approved units and those permitted through January 1, 2007. However, some projects have flexible "up to" totals by unit type, and some units considered single-family attached for the purpose of this document may be listed as multi-family on the approval document. Also, some projects are completed with fewer units than originally approved. Data in the "Units Remaining to be Built" and "Percent Complete" sections have been adjusted to reflect these factors. The portion of Lansdowne in the Leesburg planning subarea is completed. Figures in this table only show the portion in the Ashburn planning subarea. See the completed projects supplemental information on the Loudoun County Government 2006 Annual Growth Summary website for information on the Leesburg planning subarea portion of Lansdowne. Project was built at fewer units than approved. Only 26 single-family detached lots remain for development. Includes Falcon's Landing, Potomac Lakes, Potomac Square, Potomac Terrace, Town Center at Westlakes, and Potomac Lakes Town Center. Single-family detached are complete and were built at fewer units than approved. Includes Round Hill Rural Estates, Mountain Valley, Lake Point, and The Villages at Round Hill. 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-17. ---PAGE BREAK--- SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn 2,906 4,571 11,839 19,316 15% 24% 61% 100% Dulles 5,792 5,504 2,165 13,461 43% 41% 16% 100% Leesburg 655 388 593 1,636 40% 24% 36% 100% Northwest 420 78 0 498 84% 16% 0% 100% Potomac 8 7 80 95 8% 7% 84% 100% Route 15 North 564 30 0 594 95% 5% 0% 100% Route 15 South 355 0 0 355 100% 0% 0% 100% Route 7 West 953 492 0 1,445 66% 34% 0% 100% Southwest 57 0 0 57 100% 0% 0% 100% Sterling 0 42 210 252 0% 17% 83% 100% Total 11,710 11,112 14,887 37,709 31% 29% 39% 100% SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total Ashburn 2,906 4,571 11,839 19,316 25% 41% 80% 51% Dulles 5,792 5,504 2,165 13,461 49% 50% 15% 36% Leesburg 655 388 593 1,636 6% 3% 4% 4% Northwest 420 78 0 498 4% 1% 0% 1% Potomac 8 7 80 95 0% 0% 1% 0% Route 15 North 564 30 0 594 5% 0% 0% 2% Route 15 South 355 0 0 355 3% 0% 0% 1% Route 7 West 953 492 0 1,445 8% 4% 0% 4% Southwest 57 0 0 57 0% 0% 0% 0% Sterling 0 42 210 252 0% 0% 1% 1% Total 11,710 11,112 14,887 37,709 100% 100% 100% 100% Table A-7 Residential Mix by Planning Subarea: Percentage Distribution Within Subarea Planning Subarea Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Unit Distribution Within Subarea Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Percentage Distribution Within Subarea Table A-7 Residential Mix by Planning Subarea: Countywide Percentage Distribution Planning Subarea Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Countywide Unit Distribution Approved Units Remaining to be Built: Countywide Percentage Distribution 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-18. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000* - - - - - - - - - - - 2001 36.9% 12.4% 22.2% 1.9% 9.2% 0.5% 0.6% 4.6% 1.2% 10.6% 100.0% 2002 38.6% 12.2% 26.9% 1.7% 4.7% 0.7% 0.3% 7.9% 0.6% 6.4% 100.0% 2003 46.2% 10.8% 22.0% 2.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.3% 7.3% 1.0% 1.5% 100.0% 2004 48.4% 25.1% 11.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 6.9% 1.0% 3.4% 100.0% 2005 42.0% 28.7% 13.7% 2.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.5% 8.5% 0.7% 0.0% 100.0% 2006 35.7% 27.1% 10.4% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 0.9% 8.0% 1.3% 7.3% 100.0% 2007 39.4% 31.3% 8.6% 4.7% 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 7.5% 1.1% 0.5% 100.0% 2008 35.3% 37.1% 7.5% 3.6% 3.3% 3.7% 2.7% 5.9% 1.0% 0.1% 100.0% 2009 28.8% 44.1% 7.1% 4.2% 2.4% 3.0% 2.1% 5.1% 3.0% 0.1% 100.0% 2010 30.7% 46.7% 6.4% 3.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.3% 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% 100.0% 2011 31.4% 40.3% 10.8% 3.1% 1.3% 2.2% 2.0% 4.0% 0.8% 4.0% 100.0% 2012 28.4% 40.3% 11.0% 4.3% 0.1% 2.9% 2.3% 6.4% 0.7% 3.7% 100.0% 2013 27.5% 40.7% 12.5% 4.0% 0.1% 2.9% 2.6% 6.4% 0.7% 2.7% 100.0% 2014 28.6% 40.6% 12.0% 3.8% 0.1% 2.8% 2.5% 6.5% 0.6% 2.6% 100.0% 2015 27.4% 38.8% 11.8% 5.3% 0.1% 3.5% 2.9% 7.0% 0.9% 2.4% 100.0% 2016 28.3% 36.9% 14.4% 4.8% 0.1% 3.4% 2.7% 6.2% 1.1% 2.1% 100.0% 2017 29.4% 33.3% 13.5% 5.5% 0.0% 4.1% 2.4% 7.1% 1.5% 3.1% 100.0% 2018 27.5% 33.1% 13.8% 5.4% 0.0% 4.2% 2.4% 7.5% 2.3% 3.8% 100.0% 2019 24.7% 31.0% 17.5% 5.4% 0.0% 3.9% 2.1% 8.8% 2.2% 4.4% 100.0% 2020 22.1% 30.6% 18.4% 6.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% 9.8% 2.3% 4.6% 100.0% 2021 18.3% 32.3% 20.4% 6.1% 0.0% 4.7% 2.1% 10.5% 1.8% 3.7% 100.0% 2022 14.6% 31.0% 23.3% 6.9% 0.1% 5.3% 2.4% 11.4% 2.1% 2.9% 100.0% 2023 13.9% 31.7% 24.9% 6.4% 0.1% 5.3% 2.5% 12.0% 1.9% 1.4% 100.0% 2024 15.9% 27.7% 27.3% 6.6% 1.8% 5.2% 2.8% 10.7% 2.1% 0.0% 100.0% 2025 18.2% 25.4% 26.1% 7.7% 2.1% 5.4% 3.0% 9.7% 2.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2026 18.8% 21.1% 25.4% 8.9% 2.4% 6.1% 3.5% 10.8% 2.8% 0.0% 100.0% 2027 21.7% 17.9% 23.3% 10.3% 2.5% 6.5% 3.5% 11.0% 3.3% 0.1% 100.0% 2028 26.7% 16.7% 23.9% 10.0% 0.1% 7.3% 4.3% 7.0% 4.0% 0.1% 100.0% 2029 30.8% 12.3% 22.9% 11.5% 0.1% 7.7% 4.2% 4.2% 6.2% 0.1% 100.0% 2030 30.8% 12.3% 22.7% 12.6% 0.0% 7.7% 4.2% 3.5% 6.2% 0.1% 100.0% 2031 29.9% 9.0% 21.6% 20.5% 0.0% 5.2% 0.7% 1.9% 11.2% 0.0% 100.0% 2032 27.7% 8.9% 21.5% 26.2% 0.0% 3.1% 0.4% 0.7% 11.5% 0.0% 100.0% 2033 29.8% 6.6% 20.7% 28.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 12.4% 0.0% 100.0% 2034 30.2% 5.6% 19.0% 30.2% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.3% 12.9% 0.0% 100.0% 2035 35.0% 0.4% 14.0% 35.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 15.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table A-8(a). Distribution of Future Residential Growth by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-19. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg*** Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000* - - - - - - - - - - - 2001 2,349 786 1,415 120 587 31 36 291 75 673 6,363 2002 1,730 546 1,204 77 212 31 14 355 26 287 4,482 2003 2,672 623 1,271 118 466 57 20 421 55 86 5,789 2004 3,417 1,771 819 107 66 57 24 484 71 241 7,057 2005 2,771 1,894 906 185 102 93 31 562 45 3 6,592 2006 2,074 1,574 601 206 182 152 54 464 73 423 5,803 2007 1,228 974 269 146 50 97 66 233 35 15 3,113 2008 1,051 1,106 222 106 98 109 79 175 29 3 2,978 2009 680 1,044 169 100 57 72 50 120 70 3 2,365 2010 670 1,019 140 76 49 55 50 100 20 3 2,182 2011 783 1,005 270 78 33 55 50 100 20 101 2,495 2012 783 1,109 302 118 2 80 62 175 20 103 2,754 2013 836 1,236 380 120 2 88 78 195 20 81 3,036 2014 906 1,285 380 120 2 88 78 205 20 81 3,165 2015 925 1,310 400 179 2 119 99 235 30 81 3,380 2016 1,075 1,404 547 184 2 130 102 235 40 81 3,800 2017 1,238 1,405 570 230 2 171 103 300 65 131 4,215 2018 1,175 1,415 590 230 2 180 103 320 100 161 4,276 2019 1,130 1,420 800 249 2 180 96 401 100 201 4,579 2020 960 1,329 800 260 2 180 89 427 100 201 4,348 2021 752 1,329 840 250 2 193 88 433 74 151 4,112 2022 527 1,118 840 250 2 190 86 410 74 105 3,602 2023 475 1,083 850 220 2 180 86 409 65 48 3,418 2024 460 800 788 190 52 150 80 310 60 1 2,891 2025 450 629 647 190 52 135 75 240 60 1 2,479 2026 400 449 539 190 52 130 75 229 60 1 2,125 2027 400 331 429 190 46 120 65 203 60 1 1,845 2028 400 250 358 150 1 110 65 105 60 1 1,500 2029 400 160 298 150 1 100 55 55 80 1 1,300 2030 400 160 295 164 0 100 55 45 80 1 1,300 2031 400 120 290 275 0 70 10 25 150 0 1,340 2032 360 116 280 340 0 40 5 9 150 0 1,300 2033 360 80 250 340 0 20 5 5 150 0 1,210 2034 350 65 220 350 0 20 1 4 150 0 1,160 2035 350 4 140 350 0 3 1 2 150 0 1,000 Total 34,937 30,949 19,119 6,608 2,130 3,586 2,036 8,282 2,437 3,270 113,354 2000 Maximum* 31,589 25,367 20,577 4,096 5,165 2,438 1,688 7,646 2,468 3,542 104,576 Difference** 3,348 5,582 -1,458 2,512 -3,035 1,148 348 636 -31 -272 8,778 * Maximum potential new units according to 2000 baseline of the Revised General Plan. Table A-8(b). New Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) Forecasted total through 2035 incorporates comprehensive plan amendments and approved rezonings that are variances from the planned land use under the Revised General Plan. The Fiscal Impact Committee will re-evaluate the Leesburg forecast for the 2008 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines report. There is concern that the total amount of residential development in this planning subarea could be too high. 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-20. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Ashburn Dulles Leesburg Northwest Potomac R15 North R15 South R7 West Southwest Sterling Total 2000* 12,007 3,006 11,940 2,432 13,724 964 938 4,468 2,698 9,983 62,160 2001 14,356 3,792 13,355 2,552 14,311 995 974 4,759 2,773 10,656 68,523 2002 16,086 4,338 14,559 2,629 14,523 1,026 988 5,114 2,799 10,943 73,005 2003 18,758 4,961 15,830 2,747 14,989 1,083 1,008 5,535 2,854 11,029 78,794 2004 22,175 6,732 16,649 2,854 15,055 1,140 1,032 6,019 2,925 11,270 85,851 2005 24,946 8,626 17,555 3,039 15,157 1,233 1,063 6,581 2,970 11,273 92,443 2006 27,020 10,200 18,156 3,245 15,339 1,385 1,117 7,045 3,043 11,696 98,246 2007 28,248 11,174 18,425 3,391 15,389 1,482 1,183 7,278 3,078 11,711 101,359 2008 29,299 12,280 18,647 3,497 15,487 1,591 1,262 7,453 3,107 11,714 104,337 2009 29,979 13,324 18,816 3,597 15,544 1,663 1,312 7,573 3,177 11,717 106,702 2010 30,649 14,343 18,956 3,673 15,593 1,718 1,362 7,673 3,197 11,720 108,884 2011 31,432 15,348 19,226 3,751 15,626 1,773 1,412 7,773 3,217 11,821 111,379 2012 32,215 16,457 19,528 3,869 15,628 1,853 1,474 7,948 3,237 11,924 114,133 2013 33,051 17,693 19,908 3,989 15,630 1,941 1,552 8,143 3,257 12,005 117,169 2014 33,957 18,978 20,288 4,109 15,632 2,029 1,630 8,348 3,277 12,086 120,334 2015 34,882 20,288 20,688 4,288 15,634 2,148 1,729 8,583 3,307 12,167 123,714 2016 35,957 21,692 21,235 4,472 15,636 2,278 1,831 8,818 3,347 12,248 127,514 2017 37,195 23,097 21,805 4,702 15,638 2,449 1,934 9,118 3,412 12,379 131,729 2018 38,370 24,512 22,395 4,932 15,640 2,629 2,037 9,438 3,512 12,540 136,005 2019 39,500 25,932 23,195 5,181 15,642 2,809 2,133 9,839 3,612 12,741 140,584 2020 40,460 27,261 23,995 5,441 15,644 2,989 2,222 10,266 3,712 12,942 144,932 2021 41,212 28,590 24,835 5,691 15,646 3,182 2,310 10,699 3,786 13,093 149,044 2022 41,739 29,708 25,675 5,941 15,648 3,372 2,396 11,109 3,860 13,198 152,646 2023 42,214 30,791 26,525 6,161 15,650 3,552 2,482 11,518 3,925 13,246 156,064 2024 42,674 31,591 27,313 6,351 15,702 3,702 2,562 11,828 3,985 13,247 158,955 2025 43,124 32,220 27,960 6,541 15,754 3,837 2,637 12,068 4,045 13,248 161,434 2026 43,524 32,669 28,499 6,731 15,806 3,967 2,712 12,297 4,105 13,249 163,559 2027 43,924 33,000 28,928 6,921 15,852 4,087 2,777 12,500 4,165 13,250 165,404 2028 44,324 33,250 29,286 7,071 15,853 4,197 2,842 12,605 4,225 13,251 166,904 2029 44,724 33,410 29,584 7,221 15,854 4,297 2,897 12,660 4,305 13,252 168,204 2030 45,124 33,570 29,879 7,385 15,854 4,397 2,952 12,705 4,385 13,253 169,504 2031 45,524 33,690 30,169 7,660 15,854 4,467 2,962 12,730 4,535 13,253 170,844 2032 45,884 33,806 30,449 8,000 15,854 4,507 2,967 12,739 4,685 13,253 172,144 2033 46,244 33,886 30,699 8,340 15,854 4,527 2,972 12,744 4,835 13,253 173,354 2034 46,594 33,951 30,919 8,690 15,854 4,547 2,973 12,748 4,985 13,253 174,514 2035 46,944 33,955 31,059 9,040 15,854 4,550 2,974 12,750 5,135 13,253 175,514 Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table A-8(c). Cumulative Residential Units by Planning Subarea (Intermediate Scenario) 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-21. ---PAGE BREAK--- Average Number Unit Type Value of Units* SFD: less than 1 acre $717,542 1,448 SFA $463,125 1,023 MF (condo) $331,678 542 * Completed units as of January 1. Source: Loudoun County Office of the Assessor. Table A-9. Value of New Residential Units, 2007 2007 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page A-22. ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix B: Nonresidential Analysis ---PAGE BREAK--- Type 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* High Density Office 181,812 411,812 411,812 969,542 1,338,474 1,338,474 1,338,474 1,338,474 1,446,874 1,571,534 1,571,534 Low Density Office 5,914,322 7,527,686 9,236,605 10,713,264 11,188,163 11,344,555 12,306,358 12,622,889 13,243,795 13,802,584 14,045,282 Retail 4,839,287 5,997,765 6,529,895 7,409,876 7,870,894 8,400,812 9,132,284 9,931,957 10,472,665 11,662,440 12,747,379 Other 7,543,569 8,641,780 10,524,426 12,401,889 14,211,294 15,011,510 16,064,540 17,509,452 18,693,717 19,385,988 19,556,374 Other-Public NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 392,674 Flex/Light Industrial 6,924,572 7,837,821 9,055,410 12,262,743 13,623,769 14,038,841 14,507,701 15,794,779 17,137,754 18,680,590 20,047,465 Heavy Industrial 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 19,584 Total 25,423,146 30,436,448 35,777,732 43,776,898 48,252,178 50,153,776 53,368,941 57,217,135 61,014,389 65,122,720 68,380,292 *Through September 2007. 2007 is the first year that permitting for public uses ("Other - Public") has been tracked. Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development based on LMIS Building Permit data. Table B-1. Cumulative Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Type 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* High Density Office 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.4% 12.4% 6.0% Low Density Office 2.1% 4.8% 7.8% 9.7% 16.9% 17.4% 13.6% 9.0% 7.9% 9.7% 15.7% Retail 13.5% 13.3% 10.1% 9.5% 10.0% 8.0% 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.7% Other 10.8% 10.6% 8.1% 7.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.8% 8.0% 5.6% 5.0% 5.0% Flex/Light Industrial 5.4% 5.2% 1.9% 5.4% 18.9% 21.4% 19.2% 15.9% 15.1% 13.3% 14.2% Heavy Industrial NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Note: Vacancy rates are calculated for all commercial space, including owner-occupied. The commercial real estate industry typically reports vacancy rates for "available" space which is generally rental space. *Through 3rd quarter Source: Costar Realty Information, Inc. (10-1-2007) adjusted by category for office and flex/industrial (Base data from Growth Summary). Table B-2. Trends in Nonresidential Vacancy 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year High Density Office Low Density Office Retail Other Flex/Light Industrial Heavy Industrial 2000* 0.0% 9.7% 9.5% 7.0% 5.4% N/A 2001* 13.0% 16.9% 10.0% 8.0% 18.9% N/A 2002* 13.0% 17.4% 8.0% 7.0% 21.4% N/A 2003* 13.0% 13.6% 6.2% 6.8% 19.2% N/A 2004* 13.0% 9.0% 3.0% 8.0% 15.9% N/A 2005* 12.4% 7.9% 3.0% 5.6% 15.1% N/A 2006* 12.4% 9.7% 2.0% 5.0% 13.3% N/A 2007** 6.0% 15.7% 2.7% 5.0% 14.2% N/A 2008 10.0% 9.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2009 10.0% 9.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2010 10.0% 9.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2011 10.0% 9.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2012 10.0% 9.0% 5.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2013 10.0% 9.0% 6.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2014 10.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2015 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2016 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2017 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2018 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2019 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2020 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2021 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2022 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2023 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2024 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2025 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2026 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2027 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2028 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2029 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2030 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2031 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2032 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2033 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2034 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A 2035 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 5.0% 11.0% N/A *2000-2006 actuals **2007 through 3rd Q Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table B-3. Vacancy Rate Assumptions 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-3. ---PAGE BREAK--- Vacancy Rates Square Footage (in 000s) Occupied SF (in 000s) Employees/ Employment Type of Space 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 1,000 SF 2004 2005 2006 High Density Office 13.0% 12.4% 12.4% 1,338 1,447 1,572 1,164 1,267 1,377 3.40 3,959 4,309 4,681 3% Low Density Office 9.0% 7.9% 9.7% 12,623 13,244 13,803 11,487 12,198 12,464 3.17 36,413 38,666 39,510 28.7% Retail 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 9,932 10,473 11,662 9,634 10,158 11,429 1.50 14,451 15,238 17,144 12.4% Other 8.0% 5.6% 5.0% 17,509 18,694 19,386 16,109 17,647 18,417 1.19 19,169 21,000 21,916 15.9% Flex/Industrial 15.9% 15.1% 13.3% 15,795 17,138 18,681 13,283 14,550 16,196 2.15 28,559 31,282 34,822 25.3% Heavy Industrial NA NA NA 20 20 20 20 20 20 1.83 37 37 37 0.0% Model Employment Estimates Estimated employment linked to nonresidential space (using employees/1,000 SF factors shown above) 102,589 110,532 117,289 85.2% Employment at airport (not included in the employees/1,000 SF factors shown above) 11,990 11,954 12,131 8.8% Additional employment not covered elsewhere (nonspace employment and employment not covered by VEC) 7,314 7,818 8,288 6.0% Total employment 121,892 130,304 137,709 100.0% Estimated Employment from Outside Sources, for Comparison Virginia Employment Commission (VEC) Total Employment (2nd Quarter) 112,187 119,933 125,873 Adjustment for Uncovered Airport Employment 3,463 2,423 2,344 Adjustment for Nonspace and Uncovered Employment 7,622 8,000 8,400 Total employment 123,272 130,356 136,617 Difference Between Model Estimates and Comparison Total (1,380) (52) 1,092 Table B-4. Analysis of Employees per 1,000 SF Background Analysis for Inputs and Assumptions 2006 Employment Distribution 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-4. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Low Intermediate High Low Intermediate High 2000* 7,999,166 7,999,166 7,999,166 43,776,898 43,776,898 43,776,898 2001* 4,475,280 4,475,280 4,475,280 48,252,178 48,252,178 48,252,178 2002* 1,901,598 1,901,598 1,901,598 50,153,776 50,153,776 50,153,776 2003* 3,215,165 3,215,165 3,215,165 53,368,941 53,368,941 53,368,941 2004* 3,848,194 3,848,194 3,848,194 57,217,135 57,217,135 57,217,135 2005* 3,797,254 3,797,254 3,797,254 61,014,389 61,014,389 61,014,389 2006* 4,108,329 4,108,329 4,108,329 65,122,718 65,122,718 65,122,718 2007 projection 3,500,000 3,500,000 3,500,000 68,622,718 68,622,718 68,622,718 2008 2,750,000 3,250,000 3,750,000 71,372,718 71,872,718 72,372,718 2009 2,750,000 3,250,000 3,750,000 74,122,718 75,122,718 76,122,718 2010 2,750,000 3,250,000 3,750,000 76,872,718 78,372,718 79,872,718 2011 2,750,000 3,250,000 3,750,000 79,622,718 81,622,718 83,622,718 2012 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 82,622,718 85,122,718 87,622,718 2013 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 85,622,718 88,622,718 91,622,718 2014 3,050,000 3,550,000 4,050,000 88,672,718 92,172,718 95,672,718 2015 3,350,000 3,850,000 4,350,000 92,022,718 96,022,718 100,022,718 2016 3,350,000 3,850,000 4,350,000 95,372,718 99,872,718 104,372,718 2017 3,350,000 3,850,000 4,350,000 98,722,718 103,722,718 108,722,718 2018 3,350,000 3,850,000 4,350,000 102,072,718 107,572,718 113,072,718 2019 3,350,000 3,850,000 4,350,000 105,422,718 111,422,718 117,422,718 2020 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 108,422,718 114,922,718 121,422,718 2021 2,730,000 3,230,000 3,730,000 111,152,718 118,152,718 125,152,718 2022 2,100,000 2,600,000 3,100,000 113,252,718 120,752,718 128,252,718 2023 2,100,000 2,600,000 3,100,000 115,352,718 123,352,718 131,352,718 2024 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 116,852,718 125,352,718 133,852,718 2025 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 118,352,718 127,352,718 136,352,718 2026 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 119,852,718 129,352,718 138,852,718 2027 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 121,352,718 131,352,718 141,352,718 2028 1,300,000 1,800,000 2,300,000 122,652,718 133,152,718 143,652,718 2029 1,100,000 1,600,000 2,100,000 123,752,718 134,752,718 145,752,718 2030 1,075,000 1,575,000 2,075,000 124,827,718 136,327,718 147,827,718 2031 1,050,000 1,550,000 2,050,000 125,877,718 137,877,718 149,877,718 2032 1,025,000 1,525,000 2,025,000 126,902,718 139,402,718 151,902,718 2033 950,000 1,450,000 1,950,000 127,852,718 140,852,718 153,852,718 2034 900,000 1,400,000 1,900,000 128,752,718 142,252,718 155,752,718 2035 800,000 1,300,000 1,800,000 129,552,718 143,552,718 157,552,718 * 2000-2006: actual--2007: 3,257,575 square feet through September Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table B-5. Alternative Nonresidential Forecasts New SF Permitted Cumulative SF Permitted 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-5. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Ashburn Ashbrook 100 60 1,041,000 Ashburn Corporate Center 112 79 845,000 Ashburn Center 77 48 440,000 Ashburn Crossroads 26 26 460,000 Ashburn Village Executive Center** 82 82 1,423,000 Beaumeade Corporate Park 405 146 2,300,000 Belmont 55 55 967,000 Brambleton 160 160 2,780,000 Broad Run Business Center 208 88 1,500,000 Broadlands 141 118 1,266,000 Commonwealth Center at Ashburn 112 112 1,949,000 Crosscreek Corporate Center 18 12 213,000 Downs Industrial Park 56 36 626,000 Dulles 2000 29 29 800,000 Dulles Berry 80 80 1,400,000 Dulles Parkway Center** 39 39 680,000 Dulles Summit 47 47 764,000 Dulles Trade Center II 88 46 807,000 Greenway Corporate Park 31 31 534,000 Highpoint Corporate Park 55 55 800,000 Kincora (Ray)** 422 216 3,000,000 Lansdowne Town Center 19 19 280,000 Loudoun Exchange 59 34 596,000 Loudoun Gateway 137 31 539,000 Loudoun Parkway Center 164 164 2,500,000 Loudoun Pointe 168 168 570,000 Loudoun Square 20 13 227,000 Loudoun Station 43 43 1,300,000 Mercure Business Park 162 36 624,000 Moorefield Station 510 510 9,400,000 One Loudoun Center** 266 266 4,639,000 Paragon Park 104 104 1,800,000 Table B-6. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available), 2006 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-6. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Table B-6. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available), 2006 Potomac Farm Business Park 77 77 950,000 RSSJ 173 173 3,000,000 TAB I 129 129 2,248,000 University Center 231 84 925,000 Verizon Campus 431 296 4,600,000 Waterside (Nattak) 64 64 760,000 West Dulles Station 28 28 492,000 Westwind 606 266 266 4,500,000 Subarea Total 5,394 4,070 64,545,000 Percent 70% 72% 72% Dulles 606 Development Corp** 80 80 1,393,000 Arcola Center** 390 363 3,100,000 Bryant Dulles Industrial Park 82 82 1,425,000 Eastgate 183 183 3,186,000 Stone Ridge 28 28 379,000 Subarea Total 763 736 9,483,000 Percent 10% 13% 11% Leesburg Battlefield Park (Lee Gate)** 70 70 915,000 Village at Leesburg (Leesburg Commons) 50 50 653,000 Oaklawn at Leesburg 73 73 1,431,000 Subarea Total 193 193 2,999,000 Percent 2% 3% 3% Sterling Centenial Dominion Center 100 100 1,746,000 CIT 60 60 2,610,000 Dulles Commerce Center 39 39 680,000 Dulles International Park 68 42 737,000 Dulles North Corporate Park 80 20 346,000 Dulles Town Center 241 214 3,732,000 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-7. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Project Total Office & Industrial Acres Developable Acres Available Developable (available) Office & Industrial Buildings SF * Table B-6. Major Nonresidential (Office and Industrial) Projects by Planning Subarea (>10 acres available), 2006 Loudoun Tech Center 260 22 420,000 Steeplechase 126 18 312,000 Sterling Park Business Center 119 47 488,000 Tall Oaks 58 38 669,000 TransDulles Centre 146 57 987,000 Woodland 80 20 342,000 Subarea Total 1,377 677 13,069,000 Percent 18% 12% 15% Total 7,727 5,676 90,096,000 Only projects in the Ashburn, Dulles, Leesburg, and Sterling planning subareas included. * Maximum FAR **Active rezoning Source: Loudoun County Department of Economic Development-- December 2006. 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-8. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Total High Density Office Low Density Office Retail Other Flex/ Light Industrial Heavy Industrial 2000 100.0% 7% 18% 11% 23% 40% 1% 2001 100.0% 8% 11% 10% 40% 30% 1% 2002 100.0% 0% 8% 28% 42% 22% 0% 2003 100.0% 0% 30% 23% 32% 15% 0% 2004 100.0% 0% 8% 21% 38% 33% 0% 2005 100.0% 3% 16% 14% 32% 35% 0% 2006 100.0% 2% 21% 18% 30% 29% 0% 2007* 100.0% 0% 8% 33% 17% 42% 0% 2008 100.0% 2% 21% 26% 22% 29% 0% 2009 100.0% 2% 22% 25% 22% 29% 0% 2010 100.0% 2% 23% 26% 22% 27% 0% 2011 100.0% 2% 23% 25% 24% 26% 0% 2012 100.0% 3% 24% 25% 25% 24% 0% 2013 100.0% 3% 24% 25% 25% 24% 0% 2014 100.0% 3% 24% 24% 25% 24% 0% 2015 100.0% 5% 24% 23% 24% 24% 0% 2016 100.0% 5% 24% 25% 23% 22% 0% 2017 100.0% 5% 24% 25% 23% 22% 0% 2018 100.0% 8% 27% 24% 24% 17% 0% 2019 100.0% 8% 28% 23% 24% 18% 0% 2020 100.0% 9% 27% 24% 20% 18% 0% 2021 100.0% 10% 27% 24% 20% 18% 0% 2022 100.0% 10% 27% 25% 19% 18% 0% 2023 100.0% 10% 26% 26% 20% 19% 0% 2024 100.0% 11% 26% 25% 21% 17% 0% 2025 100.0% 10% 25% 25% 23% 18% 0% 2026 100.0% 10% 26% 23% 24% 18% 0% 2027 100.0% 10% 26% 20% 24% 19% 0% 2028 100.0% 11% 28% 16% 26% 20% 0% 2029 100.0% 11% 29% 13% 26% 21% 0% 2030 100.0% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2031 100.0% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2032 100.0% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2033 100.0% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2034 100.0% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% 2035 100.0% 11% 30% 11% 27% 21% 0% *through September 2007 Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table B-7. Future Mix of New Permitted Nonresidential Square Footage Per Year 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-9. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution Planning Subarea Square Footage Distribution County Northwest Route 7 West Total 65,122,720 100% Total 298,699 0% Total 2,512,169 4% High Density Office 1,571,534 100% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% Low Density Office 13,802,584 100% Low Density Office 4,398 0% Low Density Office 156,193 1% Retail 11,662,440 100% Retail 31,405 0% Retail 449,553 4% Other 19,385,988 100% Other 239,793 1% Other 1,492,508 8% Flex/Light Industrial 18,680,590 100% Flex/Light Industrial 23,103 0% Flex/Light Industrial 413,915 2% Heavy Industrial 19,584 100% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Ashburn Potomac Southwest Total 26,566,419 41% Total 3,591,361 6% Total 478,015 1% High Density Office 1,391,534 89% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% Low Density Office 7,313,504 53% Low Density Office 580,084 4% Low Density Office 95,995 1% Retail 2,231,543 19% Retail 1,083,359 9% Retail 138,132 1% Other 6,038,810 31% Other 1,808,262 9% Other 226,085 1% Flex/Light Industrial 9,580,800 51% Flex/Light Industrial 119,656 1% Flex/Light Industrial 17,803 0% Heavy Industrial 10,228 52% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Dulles Route 15 North Sterling Total 6,373,909 10% Total 108,922 0% Total 15,677,898 24% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 180,000 11% Low Density Office 769,520 6% Low Density Office 1,008 0% Low Density Office 2,842,210 21% Retail 955,506 8% Retail 7,361 0% Retail 3,423,285 29% Other 2,451,636 13% Other 93,192 0% Other 3,654,656 19% Flex/Light Industrial 2,189,179 12% Flex/Light Industrial 7,361 0% Flex/Light Industrial 5,576,459 30% Heavy Industrial 8,068 41% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 1,288 7% Leesburg Route 15 South Total 9,415,595 14% Total 99,733 0% High Density Office 0 0% High Density Office 0 0% Low Density Office 2,039,672 15% Low Density Office 0 0% Retail 3,324,602 29% Retail 17,694 0% Other 3,313,716 17% Other 67,330 0% Flex/Light Industrial 737,605 4% Flex/Light Industrial 14,709 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Heavy Industrial 0 0% Table B-8. Nonresidential Baseline by Planning Subarea, 2006 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-10. ---PAGE BREAK--- Planning Subarea Projected Mix Planning Subarea Projected Mix Planning Subarea Projected Mix County Northwest Route 7 West High Density Office 100% High Density Office 0% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 100% Low Density Office 0% Low Density Office 2% Retail 100% Retail 0% Retail 5% Other 100% Other 1% Other 9% Flex/Light Industrial 100% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 4% Heavy Industrial 100% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Ashburn Potomac Southwest High Density Office 73% High Density Office 1% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 50% Low Density Office 2% Low Density Office 0% Retail 25% Retail 4% Retail 1% Other 40% Other 6% Other 1% Flex/Light Industrial 44% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 9% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Dulles Route 15 North Sterling High Density Office 0% High Density Office 0% High Density Office 22% Low Density Office 12% Low Density Office 0% Low Density Office 15% Retail 19% Retail 0% Retail 17% Other 15% Other 0% Other 14% Flex/Light Industrial 22% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Flex/Light Industrial 21% Heavy Industrial 90% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 1% Leesburg Route 15 South High Density Office 4% High Density Office 0% Low Density Office 19% Low Density Office 0% Retail 27% Retail 0% Other 13% Other 0% Flex/Light Industrial 8% Flex/Light Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Heavy Industrial 0% Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table B-9. Future Distribution of Nonresidential Space by Type and Planning Subarea Distribution of Cumulative Nonresidential Space by the Year 2035 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-11. ---PAGE BREAK--- 2008-2014 2015-2024 2025-2034 Ashburn 9,582,257 13,361,576 7,943,262 Dulles 5,418,292 8,001,609 3,088,431 Leesburg 3,976,658 5,245,894 2,833,955 Northwest 96,859 147,366 19,611 Potomac 357,927 232,681 73,090 Route 15 North 21,936 31,554 19,611 Route 15 South 21,936 31,554 19,611 Route 7 West 1,535,500 2,009,782 1,124,345 Southwest 61,856 31,554 19,611 Sterling 2,476,779 4,086,429 1,758,471 Total 23,550,000 33,180,000 16,900,000 2008-2014 2015-2024 2025-2034 High Density Office 515,268 2,497,826 1,783,325 Low Density Office 5,423,501 8,667,477 4,704,998 Retail 5,906,073 8,091,757 2,670,315 Other 5,530,512 7,347,839 4,344,291 Flex/Light Industrial 6,148,958 6,534,133 3,373,701 Heavy Industrial 25,688 40,969 23,370 Total 23,550,000 33,180,000 16,900,000 Source: Fiscal Impact Committee. Table B-10 Future Distribution of New Nonresidential Permits: Type Square Feet Table B-10 Future Distribution of New Nonresidential Permits: Planning Subarea Planning Subarea Square Feet 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-12. ---PAGE BREAK--- 2007 Average Unit Type Value* High Density Office $210 Low Density Office $206 Retail $214 Light Industrial $112 Source: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services and Office of the Assessor * Properties completed in multiple years, but fully complete by January 1, 2007 Table B-11. Value of Commercial Property, 2007 Average Values Based on Representative Properties 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page B-13. ---PAGE BREAK--- Appendix C: Analysis of Other Demographic and Economic Factors ---PAGE BREAK--- September 30 School Year Year Enrollment 1999-2000 1999 28,787 2000-2001 2000 31,804 2001-2002 2001 34,589 2002-2003 2002 37,532 2003-2004 2003 40,751 2004-2005 2004 44,014 2005-2006 2005 47,361 2006-2007 2006 50,478 2007-2008 2007 54,047 Source: Loudoun County Public Schools. Table C-1. September Public School Enrollment Trends 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page C-1. ---PAGE BREAK--- Year Personal Income Percent Change Per Capita Income Percent Change Source 2000 $7,153,949,000 14.0% $41,116 3.6% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2001 $7,718,740,000 7.9% $40,589 -1.3% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2002 $7,799,414,000 1.0% $38,242 -5.8% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003 $8,363,373,000 7.2% $37,814 -1.1% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2004 $9,435,492,000 12.8% $39,378 4.1% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2005 $10,562,712,000 11.9% $41,193 4.6% Bureau of Economic Analysis 2006 $11,207,070,000 6.1% $42,676 3.6% Management and Financial Services 2007 $11,915,185,000 6.3% $43,956 3.0% Management and Financial Services 2008 $12,635,392,000 6.0% $45,275 3.0% Management and Financial Services 2009 $13,451,214,000 6.5% $47,086 4.0% Management and Financial Services 2010 $14,357,249,000 6.7% $49,213 4.5% Management and Financial Services 2011 $15,298,277,000 6.6% $51,280 4.2% Management and Financial Services 2012 $16,327,357,000 6.7% $53,434 4.2% Management and Financial Services 2013 $17,447,152,000 6.9% $55,678 4.2% Management and Financial Services 2014 $18,650,681,000 6.9% $58,017 4.2% Management and Financial Services Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services. Table C-2. Personal and Per Capita Income Analysis 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page C-2. ---PAGE BREAK--- Residential Rental Multifamily Commercial/Industrial Total All Parcels Number of Parcels 10,263 124 1,065 11,452 Number of Acres 28,853 99 11,802 40,754 Fair Market Value of Land $2,290,714,900 $55,973,900 $2,122,786,900 $4,469,475,700 Parcels with Land Use Assessments Number of Parcels in Land Use 1,290 0 29 1,319 Number of Land Use Acres 12,736 0 817 13,553 Fair Market Value of Land Use Parcels $468,475,100 0 $100,739,000 $569,214,100 Use Value of Land $11,688,970 0 $585,430 $12,274,400 Deferred Assessment of Land Use Parcels $456,786,130 0 $100,153,570 $556,939,700 * Excludes public service corporation and tax exempt properties. Source: Loudoun County Office of the Assessor. 20 - 100 Acres > 100 Acres Total All Parcels Number of Parcels 1,917 438 2,355 Number of Acres 76,009 85,262 161,271 Fair Market Value $2,376,430,400 $1,769,497,600 $4,145,928,000 Parcels with Land Use Assessments Number of Parcels in Land Use 1,620 381 2,001 Number of Land Use Acres 65,293 74,798 140,091 Fair Market Value of Land Use Parcels $1,347,519,600 $950,099,100 $2,297,618,700 Use Value of Land $219,688,620 $77,197,850 $296,886,470 Deferred Assessment of Land Use Parcels $1,127,830,980 $872,901,250 $2,000,732,230 * Excludes public service corporation and tax exempt properties. Source: Loudoun County Office of the Assessor. Agricultural Land* Undeveloped Land* Table C-3(a). Land Values, 2007: Vacant Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Land Table C-3(b). Land Values, 2007: Agricultural Land, Parcels 20 Acres and Larger 2007 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines Page C-3.