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NM CO UT AZ Housing Affordability 2010 Update Updated Data From: • US Census American Community Survey 2008 • US Census American Community Survey 2006-2008 • Daily Times Rental Data 2009 • San Juan County Board of Realtors 2009 • San Juan County Assessor’s Office 2009 Published on May 1, 2010 By Jay Peterman City of Farmington CDBG ---PAGE BREAK--- Index Executive 4 4 Introduction 4 Area of Report and Data 4 4 5 1. Income and Socio Economic 6 a. 2008 Median Family 6 b. Comparison City and County Income 7 c. Income by 8 d. Number of Families by 9 2. 9 a. 2009 Poverty 10 b. 2008 ACS Poverty Data 10 c. Ratio of Income to Poverty Level 11 i. 2000 to 2008 Trends 11 ii. Comparison of the Farmington MSA and the City of Farmington........ 12 3. Housing Ownership 13 a. American Community Survey Housing 13 i. Comparison of the Percent Spent on Homes with a Mortgage 13 ii. Comparison of Households Paying More than 30% by Age 14 b. San Juan County Board of Realtors Data 15 i. County and National Sales Comparison Table 15 ii. County and National Sales Comparison Chart 16 iii. Median and Average Sales Price 16 4. San Juan County Assessor’s 18 a. 2009 Sales Data 18 b. San Juan County by Price and Type of 19 c. City of Farmington by Price and Type of 20 d. San Juan County Size and Price per Square 21 e. City of Farmington Size and Price per Square 22 f. Aztec and Bloomfield Sales Data 23 5. Rental Housing Data 24 a. American Community Survey Rental 24 i. Comparison of the Farmington MSA and the City of Farmington........ 24 ii. Gross Rent 25 iii. Percent Paying 30% or More on Rent By Age Comparison 26 b. Farmington Daily Times Rental Survey 26 i. All Rentals – Median and Average Price and Units 26 ii. One Bedroom 28 iii. Two Bedroom Rentals 29 iv. Three Bedroom Rentals 30 v. Four Bedroom Rentals 31 vi. Comparison of Rentals by 32 vii. Price of Rentals by Type of Unit 33 c. HUD Fair Market Rent 34 6. Vacancy Rates 35 7. Housing 36 ---PAGE BREAK--- Index a. Affordability Comparison of New Mexico MSA’s and Principal Cities.... 36 b. Tracking Affordability 37 c. Rental Affordability for Socio-Economic Groups 38 d. Home Mortgage Affordability for Socio-Economic Groups 40 Terms and 42 42 ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 4 Executive Summary Purpose The City of Farmington is beginning to work on the new Affordable Housing Strategic Plan. To prepare for this new strategic plan, Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) Staff has created this housing affordability update to provide the most current data available. The 2009 – 2014 Consolidated Plan’s Housing Affordability section primarily used 2006 data. This report will serve as a resource document for local policy makers on the issues of affordable housing, demographic data, and for the application of grant funds for the development of affordable housing. This report will also provide a basis to determine fair market rent for rental assistance projects operating in San Juan County (SJC). The findings of this report will be forwarded to the State of New Mexico Mortgage Finance Authority and to the DC HUD office for review of the rental data results. Introduction This report looks at all of the data that leads to housing affordability. Income, poverty, housing expenditures, housing and rental costs, and housing sales data are used to define the current affordability of rentals and housing ownership. Area of Report and Data Sources Many of the statistics in this report come from the American Community Survey (ACS), which is part of the US Census. The area covered by this data is described as the Farmington Metropolitan Statistical Area or the MSA. The Farmington MSA is identical to and interchangeable with the San Juan County borders. A new source of data from the ACS is the 3-year Average. Survey data is collected annually by the US Census and compiled each year for 3-year averages. This data is available for both the Farmington MSA and for the City of Farmington. Because of this, comparisons of San Juan County and the City of Farmington data are now available. The ACS does not yet have specific data for Aztec or Bloomfield. Affordability This report looks at the affordability of rental units and home purchases for various socio- economic groups, family types, for families that earn the median income and those that earn 80%, 50%, and 30% of the Median Family Income (MFI). In the Farmington MSA, affordability in 2008 has reached the point where the median family income can no longer afford to purchase the median price home. The median family income can still afford a mobile home, and this may be why 32.5 percent of all housing units in the Farmington MSA are mobile homes (2006). Of all the groups shown on the Housing Affordability Table (Table 14 on page 42), the only group that can afford to buy a median priced home is married couple families. American Indian, Hispanic, younger and older families, families with young children, and female headed households are all far short of being able to afford to purchase the median priced home. Rental affordability in the Farmington MSA is somewhat better than the home ownership affordability. The median rental prices for two bedroom units and apartments are affordable for most socio-economic groups except for 15 to 24 year old and over 65-year-old households, female-headed households, and for those earning 50% MFI or less. However, American Indian, younger and older families, and female-headed households are unable to afford the median priced three-bedroom rental, house, or townhome/condo. This may be the reason why 12.1 percent of all renter occupied units are overcrowded (2006), and why 34.3 ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 5 percent of all rental households pay more than 30 percent of their income in rent (2006-2008 data). From 2000 to 2008, the median overall rental cost has increased 97 percent, while the median family income has increased 67 percent. If the current increases in housing costs continue to outpace the gains in wages, then housing in the Farmington MSA will become more unaffordable. In comparison to Albuquerque, Santa Fe, and Las Cruces, Farmington housing is more affordable to its residents. Table 12 (page 37), near the end of this report, shows an affordability comparison of the four New Mexico MSA’s and their principal cities. Farmington has a much lower percentage of households paying more then 30 percent and 50 percent than the other MSA’s and Cities. Not surprisingly, Santa Fe is the worst off with 54.4 percent paying more than 30 percent of their income on rent. However, the Farmington MSA still has 3,643 households living in unaffordable rentals and 4,429 households living under an unaffordable mortgage. We are better off, but we still need to address the needs of the many families living in unaffordable conditions. The housing market and the recent increase in unemployment, which hit in 2009, are on everyone’s minds. However, housing price data from the San Juan County Assessor’s office and from the San Juan County Board of Realtors points to continuing housing price increases, with only the first dip occurring in 2009. The City of Farmington housing vacancy rate of 5.7% is far below other New Mexico cities and contributes to the high rental and housing costs. Building permits are down as well as the number of units sold. However, the San Juan County market has been well insolated from the National housing crisis. Table 6 (page 12) in this report shows that while the national market in 2007, 2008, and 2009 fell -27.05 percent, - 37.73 percent, and -22.41, the county market fell only -6.60 percent, -14.03 percent, and - 18.53 percent. Recommendations The 2008 Housing Needs Assessment recommended, that during the creation of the new 2009 Consolidated Plan, housing affordability projects be given a high priority and that a variety of Action Plan projects be considered for future funding to address the important issue of housing affordability. With the benefit of the new data in this 2010 update, CDBG staff still recommends that a high priority be given to address housing affordability, both rental and purchase. The local community must be prepared to provide assistance to those families in greatest need. The development of the Housing Affordability Strategic Plan is only a first step. The goals and objectives of that plan must be put into action, code, and policy to develop affordable housing to help those in the greatest need. ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 6 1. Income and Socio Economic Groups a. 2008 Median Family Income Table 1 shows the 2008 Median Family Income (MFI) and income groups for the Farmington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) along with the number of families and percent of families by group. The income groups 80%, 50%, and 30% MFI are standard income categories established by HUD for reporting and qualification of benefits. The three income groups also correlate to the descriptions Moderate, Low, and Very Low Income. For example, all CDBG projects administered by the City target 80% MFI or moderate income. In addition, the 50% MFI group or low income is one of the definitions of families in greatest need, which is part of the needs assessment in the 2009 – 2014 Consolidated Plan. The 2008 ACS data shows that there are 5,844 families in the Farmington MSA that are considered to be in greatest need (less than 50% MFI.) Median Family Income is a constantly moving number. Every year the US census publishes the latest available numbers. Therefore, the 80%MFI figure changes at least once a year. This is especially important when creating CDBG contracts with public service providers. Table 1 Category Income Number of Families Percent of all Families MFI 56,657 $ Median 80% MFI 45,326 $ 5,293 19% Moderate 50% MFI 28,329 $ 3,453 12% Low 30% MFI 16,997 $ 2,391 8% Very Low 2008 ACS Farmington MSA 2008 Median Family Income MFI Moderate, Low, and Very Low Income Levels ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 7 b. Comparison City and County Income Table 2 is similar to Table 1 but it shows a comparison between the Farmington MSA or San Juan County and the City of Farmington. The source of this data still comes from the American Community Survey (ACS) but rather than being from a single year, it comes from a published three-year average of annual survey results. This is the only current data source that covers just the City of Farmington. The median income, number of families and percent of families is shown by income group for both the City of Farmington and the Farmington MSA. If you look at both tables, you will see that the 2008 data shows a median income of $56,000 while the 2006 – 2008 data shows $52,000. This is due to the multiyear averaging. The comparison of the two jurisdictions shows some significant differences: • The City of Farmington has a nine percent higher MFI than the County as a whole. • There are approximately three times a many people in the County that are moderate income or less. • In the County 46% of all families are moderate income or less while 35.9% are in the City of Farmington. Table 2 Median Family Income 52,564 $ Number of Families in Group Percent of All Families 57,438 $ Number of Families in Group Percent of All Families 80% MFI 42,051 $ 7,149 18.1% 45,950 $ 1,862 11.6% 50% MFI 26,282 $ 4,116 10.4% 28,719 $ 1,605 10.0% 30% MFI 15,769 $ 6,942 17.5% 17,231 $ 2294 14.3% Totals of all less than 80% MFI 18,207 46.0% 5,761 35.9% City of Farmington Comparison of the Farmington MSA and the City of Farmington Median Income and Income Groups Farmington MSA (SJC) ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 8 c. Income by Group One-half of the housing affordability question is the median incomes of various socio economic groups. Table 3 shows all of the groups in this study along with their number of families and median incomes. The three predominate races White, American Indian, and Hispanic account for about 97% of the total population. Due to the very small number all the other races in this area, detailed data is not available. The data in this table comes from the 2008 ACS. Table 3 Socio- Economic Groups Farmington, NM MSA Number Households or Families Median Income of Group White Alone 15204 51,434 $ Native American 8497 43,526 $ Hispanic or Latino 4569 44,635 $ Householder under 25 years 2340 35,357 $ Householder 25 to 44 years 12061 51,159 $ Householder 45 to 64 years 17735 58,283 $ Householder 65 years and over 7725 24,493 $ Owner Occupied 29525 52,332 $ Renter Occupied 10336 40,187 $ Total Median Family Income - 2008 28602 56,657 $ 80% of MFI - Moderate Income 5293 45,326 $ 50% of MFI - Low Income 3453 28,329 $ 30% of MFI - Very Low Income 2391 16,997 $ With own children under 18 years 9067 51,467 $ No own children under 18 years 10781 60,663 $ Married-couple family 19848 72,304 $ Female householder, no husband present 5923 31,126 $ Male householder, no wife present 2831 46,391 $ Source 2008 ACS Family Type Tenure - Own or Rent Household Household by Age of Householder Family ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 9 d. Number of Families by Income Chart 1 depicts the number of families in income groups to show the distribution of incomes in the Farmington MSA. The income categories are on the left and the number of families runs across the chart. Also, depicted on the chart are the MFI and percent of MFI values to show where the distribution of families fall. The horizontal bars show the number of families by income category. This chart does not show a classic bell distribution, but a large spike in three bars covering the $60K to $125K income range. The next largest bar is in the $30K to $35K range. The lowest numbers on the table are in the highest two income categories, but notice that the lowest income category of less than $10K is a small spike with 1,347 families Chart 1 Number of Families by Income 2008 American Community Survey The Median Family Income and Low Income catagories are shown 1,347 881 816 1,556 1,244 2,227 1,682 1,384 1,451 3,207 5,105 3,304 914 743 663 2,078 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $29,999 $30,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $44,999 $45,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $124,999 $125,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 or more Income Number of Families MFI = $56,657 80% MFI = $45,326 50% MFI = $28,329 30% MFI = $16,997 2. Poverty The National Center for Children in Poverty states, “that on average, families need an income of about twice the federal poverty level to meet their most basic needs.” “The United States measures poverty by an outdated standard developed in the 1960s.” In 2009, the federal poverty income level for a family of four was $22,050 and the 80% MFI for the Farmington MSA was $45,326. To put this in perspective, the 80% MFI is the maximum income for eligibility for assistance from the Community Development Block Grant and that was just a little bit over twice the poverty level. ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 10 While the poverty data in this report does not directly relate to affordability, it is important background information for this report as it helps to define the lowest income groups and is relevant data for many of the non-profit service providers who will use this report. a. 2009 Poverty Rates The 2009 Poverty Guidelines have been extended to run unchanged through March of 2010. There may be some concern that the rates may actually go down due to the economic crisis just as there was concern about the Social Security cost of living adjustment. Poverty income levels are dependent on the number of people in a family. Table 4 Persons in family Poverty guideline 1 $ 10,830 2 $ 14,570 3 $ 18,310 4 $ 22,050 5 $ 25,790 6 $ 29,530 7 $ 33,270 8 $ 37,010 Source: Federal Register 2009 Poverty Guidelines For families with more than 8 persons, add $3,740 for each additional person b. 2008 ACS Poverty Data Table 5 shows 2008 ACS poverty data for all of San Juan County. The table shows the numbers and percent of families, by race, family types, and educational attainment. The highest poverty rates are for those who did not graduate high school, young families with children under 18, for households that are 65 or over, and American Indian families. Female householder with no husband present has some of the highest rates of poverty in all of the race, age, or educational categories. Table 5 Subject Total Percent Below Poverty Level Total Percent Below Poverty Level Total Percent Below Poverty Level Families 28,602 10.00% 19,848 5.40% 5,923 21.60% With related children under 18 years 15,833 14.00% 10,048 6.50% 3,973 28.30% RACE AND HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN Families with a householder who is-- American Indian and Alaska Native 8,497 15.30% 4,733 6.60% 2,497 26.90% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 15,204 5.00% 11,513 4.10% 2,391 4.50% Householder 65 years and over 4,558 19.80% 2,982 12.70% 1,105 27.60% Family received Social security income in the past 12 months 5,756 10.30% 4,018 4.90% 1,059 14.10% EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF HOUSEHOLDER Less than high school graduate 4,410 20.70% 2,328 11.60% 1,493 37.80% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 9,284 8.10% 6,649 4.60% 1,044 8.80% Some college, associate's degree 10,647 10.00% 7,409 5.90% 2,752 20.50% Bachelor's degree or higher 4,261 2.70% 3,462 1.60% 634 9.30% Source: 2008 ACS 2008 Poverty Data for the Farmington MSA All families Married-couple families Female householder, no husband present ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 11 c. Ratio of Income to Poverty Level i. 2000 to 2008 Trends Chart 2 below shows the ratio of income to poverty level and the percent change from 1999 to 2008. As stated at the beginning of the poverty section, twice the poverty level is $44,100 per year for a family of four. All of the people earning twice the poverty level per year, or more, are represented in the far right column at the 2.0 or more ratio. Remember that according to the National Center for Children in Poverty, only the most basic needs of a family are met at twice the poverty level. The 1.0 to 1.24 column represents people whose income is at the poverty level or a little bit more. The under 0.5 column represents people who earn half or less of the poverty level in a year. Therefore, this table details the income levels of those who cannot meet the basic needs of their families, those who earn less than twice the poverty level in a year. The left side of the chart and the colored bars show the number of people in a particular ratio category. The right side of the chart and the red diamonds show the percent change for each category from 1999 to 2006. The dashed line across the chart shows the zero point for the percent changes, positive above and negative below. In the ratio categories of less than 1.5, there were 25 to 35 percent declines in the number of people in these low-income groups. However, in the 1.5 to 1.99 groups there have been significant increases, including a 121 percent growth in the 1.75 to 1.84 ratio category. So, there has been a huge growth in jobs that fall under the 80% MFI category where families cannot afford their basic needs. Chart 2 Ratio of Income to Poverty Level from 1999 to 2008 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Population in Ratio Group -100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% Percent Change in Ratio Group 1999 Census San Juan County 9,246 6,927 8,023 7,049 7,786 6,093 3,240 3,519 60,527 2008 ACS Farmington MSA 6,332 4,961 4,958 5,315 5,045 7,640 7,162 4,875 74,349 Percent Change -31.5% -28.4% -38.2% -24.6% -35.2% 25.4% 121.0% 38.5% 22.8% Under .50 .50 to .74 .75 to .99 1.00 to 1.24 1.25 to 1.49 1.50 to 1.74 1.75 to 1.84 1.85 to 1.99 2.00 and over ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 12 ii. Comparison of the Farmington MSA and the City of Farmington Chart 3 shows a comparison of the ratio of income to poverty level between the City of Farmington and the Farmington MSA. The City of Farmington has a higher percentage of its population in both the over 2.0 category and the under 0.5 categories. This shows a concentration of both good paying jobs and those who earn the very least. The City of Farmington also has a higher percentage of the 1.5 to 1.84 category. That category represents low paying jobs were families cannot meet their basic needs. Chart 3 Comparison of the City of Farmington and the Farmington MSA (SJC) Ratio of Income to Poverty Level 2008 ACS 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Percent of Total Population in Poverty by Ratio Category City of Farmington 8.9% 5.5% 3.1% 3.5% 9.6% 3.1% 66.3% Farmington MSA (SJC) 8.0% 9.4% 4.5% 5.9% 8.2% 3.5% 60.5% Under .50 .50 to .99 1.00 to 1.24 1.25 to 1.49 1.50 to 1.84 1.85 to 1.99 2.00 and over ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 13 3. Housing Ownership Data a. American Community Survey Housing Data i. Comparison of the Percent Spent on Homes with a Mortgage Chart 4 compares the Farmington MSA and the City of Farmington in the percent of income spend on a mortgage. A detail in the chart shows the number of households that spent more than 30% of their income on their mortgage, 4,429 SJC and 1,870 for the City. There are no glaring differences between the City and County data in this case. The percent of households paying more than 30% is almost identical at 28 percent. However, what this means is, 28 percent of all mortgage holders are in the unaffordable housing category. The 50% and over category is also identical but it shows that 9.7 percent of all mortgage holders are in the greatest need category, 4,429 households in the MSA or County and 1,870 households in the City of Farmington. Chart 4 Comparison of the Farmington MSA (SJC) and the City of Farmington Percent of Income Spent on Mortgage 2006-2008 ACS 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Percent of Household with a Mortgage by Percent of Earnings Farmington MSA (SJC) 10.6% 20.0% 17.9% 14.5% 8.0% 8.3% 5.2% 4.7% 9.7% City of Farmington 12.1% 20.0% 16.1% 16.2% 6.9% 7.0% 5.6% 5.7% 9.7% Less than 10.0 percent 10.0 to 14.9 percent 15.0 to 19.9 percent 20.0 to 24.9 percent 25.0 to 29.9 percent 30.0 to 34.9 percent 35.0 to 39.9 percent 40.0 to 49.9 percent 50.0 percent or more 4,429 or 27.9% of SJC pays over 30% 1,870 or 28% of City pays over 30% ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 14 ii. Comparison of Households Paying More than 30% by Age Chart 5 shows the percent of households that pay more then the affordable 30% on their mortgages broken down by age and compares the Farmington MSA and the City of Farmington. Not surprisingly the 24 and under category has the highest percentages, 31.1 percent for the City and 28.5 for the MSA. Only in the 35 to 64 year age category does the MSA have a higher percentage. Chart 5 Comparison of the Farmington MSA (SJC) and the City of Farmington Percent who pay more than 30% of their income on their mortgage by age ACS 2006-2008 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Percent of Households Farmington MSA (SJC) 28.5% 14.2% 14.0% 15.0% City of Farmington 31.1% 20.2% 12.9% 16.3% Householder 15 to 24 years: Householder 25 to 34 years: Householder 35 to 64 years: Householder 65 years and over: Number of Owned Households with a Mortgage Farmington MSA 15,891 City of Farmington 6,683 ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 15 b. San Juan County Board of Realtors Data This section explores data from the San Juan County Board of Realtors and compares it with recent national sales data. Data through 2009 is included in this section. i. County and National Sales Comparison Table The San Juan County data in Table 6 comes from the San Juan County Board of Realtors and represents all sold single-family residential homes, site built and manufactured. The national housing market data come from the US Census Bureau New Residential Sales December Press Releases. The number of residential units sold, average and median sales price, and the annual percent change is shown from 2000 to 2009. The County median price was not available prior to 2003. The matching colored rows compare the county and national data. The green shading compares the number of units sold, the blue shading compares the average sales price, and the yellow shading compares the median sales price. The comparison of the number of units sold shows that while the national market in 2007, 2008, and 2009 fell -27.05 percent, -37.73 percent, and -22.41, the county market fell only -6.60 percent, -14.03 percent, and -18.53 percent. This shows that while San Juan County is following the national housing market trend, the county is well insulated from the dramatic downturn. Another important fact on this table is that in 2009 there was a slight decline in the median and average sales price for San Juan County. This shows a very small correction following the very high price gains from 2003 to 2007. Table 6 San Juan County 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Number of Residential Units Sold SJC 718 843 898 [PHONE REDACTED] 1015 948 815 664 Annual Percent Change Units Sold 17.41% 6.52% 6.35% 1.99% 7.39% -2.96% -6.60% -14.03% -18.53% Average Residential Sales Price SJC 118,217 $ 123,285 $ 130,075 $ 141,629 $ 151,941 $ 174,234 $ 195,805 $ 209,141 $ 209,182 $ 205,085 $ Annual Percent Change of Average Price 4.29% 5.51% 8.88% 7.28% 14.67% 12.38% 6.81% 0.02% -1.96% Median Residential Sales Price SJC 125,000 $ 134,000 $ 153,000 $ 169,000 $ 186,800 $ 190,000 $ 185,000 $ Annual Percent Change of Median Price 7.20% 14.18% 10.46% 10.53% 1.71% -2.63% National Housing Market New Homes Sold 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Number of Residential Units Sold Nationally 898,000 900,000 976,000 1,085,000 1,183,000 1,282,000 1,061,000 774,000 482,000 374,000 Annual Percent Change Units Sold 0.22% 8.44% 11.17% 9.03% 8.37% -17.24% -27.05% -37.73% -22.41% Average Residential Sales Price Nationally 205,100 $ 225,400 $ 238,500 $ 261,100 $ 276,600 $ 272,900 $ 290,100 $ 267,300 $ 246,900 $ 290,600 $ Annual Percent Change of Average Price 9.90% 5.81% 9.48% 5.94% -1.34% 6.30% -7.86% -7.63% 17.70% Median Residential Sales Price Nationally 155,100 $ 170,200 $ 186,400 $ 197,000 $ 222,000 $ 221,800 $ 235,000 $ 219,200 $ 206,500 $ 221,300 $ Annual Percent Change of Median Price 9.74% 9.52% 5.69% 12.69% -0.09% 5.95% -6.72% -5.79% 7.17% Source: San Juan County Board of Realators and US Census Bureau New Residential Sales December Press Releases SJC Median Sales Data is only available from 2003 forward. Housing Sales and Price Data, 2000 Through 2009 San Juan County and National Housing Market ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 16 ii. County and National Sales Comparison Chart Chart 6 uses data from Table 6 above and depicts the county and national trends from 2000 to 2009 for the number of units sold and the annual percent change. The left scale of this table shows the number of site built and manufactured units sold, tracked by the dark blue and red lines. The National data is on the same scale as 1,000’s of units sold. It turns out that SJC makes up just about one thousandth of the total national housing market. This makes it very convenient to compare the sales data on the same table. The dark blue national line shows a steeper climb in home sales through 2005 but a much steeper decline through 2009. The plum county line is doing the same thing as the national line, but climbs and falls slower. The scale on the right of the chart shows the percent change in the sales data. The dashed line shows 0% on the percent scale. The green national line shows solid growth from 2001 to 2005 and then the dramatic declines of 2006 and 2008. In 2009, the uptick is still a 22% decline; it is just a smaller decline than 2008. The red line shows how limited the decline is for SJC has been in comparison to the national housing crises. Chart 6 Housing Sales and Price Data, 2000 Through 2009 San Juan County and National Housing Market Comparison 0 200 400 [PHONE REDACTED] 1200 1400 Units Sold -40.00% -20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% Annual Percent Change Number of Residential Units Sold SJC 718 843 898 [PHONE REDACTED] 1015 948 815 664 Number of New Residential Units Sold Nationally (1,000's) 898 900 976 1,085 1,183 1,282 1,061 774 482 374 SJC Annual Percent Change 17.41% 6.52% 6.35% 1.99% 7.39% -2.96% -6.60% -14.03% -18.53% National Annual Percent Change 0.22% 8.44% 11.17% 9.03% 8.37% -17.24% -27.05% -37.73% -22.41% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: San Juan County Board of Realtors and US Census Bureau New Residential Sales December Press Releases SJC From 2005 to 2009 Units Sold, -36.5% National From 2005 to 2009 Units Sold, -70.8% iii. Median and Average Sales Price Chart 7 depicts the average and median sales price along with the number of units sold in San Juan County from 2000 through 2009. The data come from the San Juan County Board of Realtors. Median price is not available prior to 2003. The sales price is on the left side of the chart and relates to the green and blue sales price lines. The ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 17 number of units sold is on the right side and it relates to the red line. An import point for this chart is that even with the decline in the number units sold beginning in 2006, the average and median sales prices continued to climb through 2008. Only in 2009, has there been the first decline in the average and median sales prices. Chart 7 Housing Sales and Price Data, 2000 Through 2009 San Juan County and National Housing Market Comparison 0 200 400 [PHONE REDACTED] 1200 1400 Units Sold -40.00% -20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% Annual Percent Change Number of Residential Units Sold SJC 718 843 898 [PHONE REDACTED] 1015 948 815 664 Number of New Residential Units Sold Nationally (1,000's) 898 900 976 1,085 1,183 1,282 1,061 774 482 374 SJC Annual Percent Change 17.41% 6.52% 6.35% 1.99% 7.39% -2.96% -6.60% -14.03% -18.53% National Annual Percent Change 0.22% 8.44% 11.17% 9.03% 8.37% -17.24% -27.05% -37.73% -22.41% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: San Juan County Board of Realtors and US Census Bureau New Residential Sales December Press Releases SJC From 2005 to 2009 Units Sold, -36.5% National From 2005 to 2009 Units Sold, -70.8% ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 18 4. San Juan County Assessor’s Data The San Juan County Assessor’s office provided data on the reported sales prices of all residential units sold. This is the only sales data available that gives a breakdown of different types of dwellings. Therefore, this data is used for the housing affordability table at the end of this report. a. 2009 Sales Data Table 7 has all of the new data for 2009, the number and percent of sales, median reported sales price, median size in square feet, and the median price per square foot. The data is broken out for the overall County, County only (or non-incorporated areas), Farmington, Aztec, and Bloomfield. For each area site built homes, mobile homes on a permanent foundation, and townhome/condo/duplex are shown. As a note, there were no sales of townhomes in Aztec and Bloomfield. Table 7 2009 Number of Sales Percent of All 2009 Sales Median Sales Price Median Size in Square Feet Median Price Per Square Foot All County Sales 804 $187,040 1,600 $122 County Only Site Built Homes 113 14.1% $210,000 1,648 $126 County Only Mobile Homes on Permanent Foundation 57 7.1% $167,750 1,711 $99 All City of Farmington Sales 519 64.6% $194,000 1,610 $125 City of Farmington Site Built Homes 500 62.2% $195,550 1,618 $125 City of Farmington Townhome Condo 11 1.4% $167,000 1,448 $128 City of Farmington Mobile on Permanent Foundation 8 1.0% $145,000 2,071 $78 City of Aztec Site Built Homes 60 7.5% $161,250 1,443 $124 City of Aztec Mobile Homes 4 0.5% $155,750 1,738 $89 City of Bloomfield Site Built Homes 44 5.5% $139,250 1,314 $114 City of Bloomfield Mobile Homes on Permanent Foundation 7 0.9% $123,000 1,689 $77 2009 San Juan County Assessor's Reported Sales Data ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 19 b. San Juan County by Price and Type of Housing The overall San Juan County sales data from the San Juan County Assessor is shown on Chart 8. All homes, townhomes, and mobile homes are tracked from 2000 to 2009. Site built homes are the blue line and the median reported sales prices have increased 63%. Far less townhomes are sold each year then site built home and that may be why the median prices move around so much. There was an 85.1% increase in price and that includes a steep drop-off in 2008 and 2009. Some of these big swings in price can be attributed to new townhome construction in Farmington. Significant numbers of townhomes were developed from 2005 to 2007 and the sales of the brand new units may have inflated the median price. In comparison, in 2008 and 2009 far fewer were built and the median sales of existing rather than new town homes appears to be the reason for the price downturn. Mobile homes on permanent foundations provide a big surprise increase of 111.5%. From 2008 to 2009, there was a big increase in the median sales price. Without the spike in 2009, the increase would still be 82%, since 2000. Considering that this table is showing the overall county it may be safe to consider that much of this increase relates to much larger lots in the county and the recent inflation of land costs. Another explanation is that in 2009 more people have purchased mobile homes as a response to the huge price increases in site built homes. Chart 8 2000 to 2009 San Juan County Median Price by Type of Housing San Juan County Assessor's Data $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 Median Sales Price SFD Median Price $116,600 $120,000 $133,000 $133,000 $144,000 $161,207 $168,000 $188,900 $195,000 $190,000 Townhome/Condo Median Price $90,200 $78,500 $90,000 $118,000 $112,500 $147,000 $164,100 $194,100 $185,700 $167,000 Mobile Home Median Price $78,000 $99,500 $100,000 $111,000 $115,700 $115,000 $130,000 $138,000 $142,000 $165,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 SFD from 2000, +63% Town Home/Condo from 2000, +85.1% Mobile Home from 2000, +111.5% ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 20 c. City of Farmington by Price and Type of Housing Chart 9 shows the City of Farmington specific data from the San Juan County Assessor by type of housing. The percentage growth in the reported site built housing is identical, the data for the townhomes is also identical because no sales of this type occurred outside of the city limits. The mobile home data however, is very different from the reported county sales. Inside the Farmington City Limits, mobile homes are typically placed on smaller residential lots, not on large acre parcels, so the prices are not propped up by the land value as much. In 2009, the median price of mobile homes on a residential lot was $145,000, while it was $165,000 in the county. This resulted in a 34% increase in Farmington as opposed to a 111.5% increase in the county. Chart 9 City of Farmington Median Sales Prices by Type San Juan County Assessor's Data $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 Median Sales Price Site Built $120,000 $120,000 $140,750 $137,700 $145,000 $165,000 $174,300 $190,000 $199,250 $195,550 Townhome/Condo $92,000 $79,000 $96,500 $121,000 $127,000 $147,000 $165,000 $194,100 $185,700 $167,000 Mobile Home $108,000 $94,250 $96,250 $86,500 $111,000 $112,500 $114,650 $125,000 $144,900 $145,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 to 2009 Site Built +63% 2000 to 2009 Townhome/Condo +82% 2000 to 2009 Mobile Home +34% ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 21 d. San Juan County Size and Price per Square Foot Chart 10 shows the median size in square feet and the median price per square foot by housing type in San Juan County. The left side of the table shows the size in square feet for the red, blue, and green lines. The right side of the table shows the price per square foot for the purple, orange, and light blue lines. The size of units for sale has decreased for site built homes and increased for townhomes. Mobile homes have consistently been larger than other sold units due to their initial price savings. The reported sales price per square foot has seen significant increases since 2000. Chart 10 San Juan County Size and Price of Home Sales Size in Square Feet and Price Per Square Foot San Juan County Assessor's Data 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Size in Square Feet $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $160.00 $180.00 $200.00 Price Per Square Foot SFD Median Sq Ft 1,702 1,630 1,625 1,582 1,591 1,588 1,544 1,594 1,632 1,597 Townhome/Condo Median Sq Ft 1,276 1,276 1,308 1,559 1,404 1,448 1,394 1,603 1,448 1448 Mobile Home Median Sq Ft 1,777 1,818 1,656 1,644 1,650 1,648 1,542 1,686 1,645 1,706 SFD Median $ per Sq Ft $68.51 $73.62 $81.85 $84.07 $90.51 $101.5 $108.8 $118.5 $119.4 $118.9 Townhome/Condo Median $ per Sq Ft $70.69 $61.52 $68.81 $75.69 $80.13 $101.5 $117.7 $121.0 $128.2 $115.3 Mobile Home Median $ per Sq Ft $43.89 $54.73 $60.39 $67.52 $70.12 $69.78 $84.33 $81.85 $86.32 $96.75 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 22 e. City of Farmington Size and Price per Square Foot Chart 11 is similar to Chart 10 above but it shows the City of Farmington size and price per square foot data. One notable point in this table is the mobile home size in 2009. There was a very large increase in the median size from 1,639 to 2,071 square feet. This may be a reaction to the significant increases in housing costs and the lack of affordability of new housing. There has been a downward trend in the size of homes built and sold in Farmington and bigger families still need larger homes to avoid overcrowding. Chart 11 City of Farmington Size and Price Per Square Foot San Juan County Assessor's Data 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 Median Square Feet by Type $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $160.00 $180.00 $200.00 Sales Price Per Square Foot SFD Median Sq Ft 1,728 1,601 1,687 1,599 1,600 1,610 1,560 1,585 1,642 1,618 Townhome/Condo Median Sq Ft 1,292 1,276 1,372 1,562 1,440 1,448 1,394 1,603 1448 1,448 Mobile Home Median Sq Ft 1,907 1,752 1,693 1,095 1,637 1,382 1,419 1,503 1637 2,071 SFD Median $ per Sq Ft $69.44 $74.95 $83.43 $86.12 $90.63 $102.4 $111.7 $119.8 $121.3 $120.8 Townhome/Condo $ per Sq Ft $71.21 $61.91 $70.34 $77.46 $88.19 $101.5 $118.3 $121.0 $128.2 $115.3 Mobile Home Median $ per Sq Ft $56.63 $53.80 $56.85 $79.00 $67.81 $81.40 $80.80 $83.17 $88.52 $70.03 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 23 f. Aztec and Bloomfield Sales Data Table 8 shows the County Assessor’s data for the City’s of Aztec and Bloomfield. In 2009, both cities had significant decreases in the median sales prices for site built homes, and significant increases in the median sales prices for mobile homes. The median size of the mobile homes was also significantly larger in 2009. This is another sign of the lack of affordable housing as families are shifting to mobile homes to be able to afford housing in a size they need. Table 8 Median Sales Price Median Square Feet Median Price Per Square Foot Median Sales Price Median Square Feet Median Price Per Square Foot 2009 $161,250 1443 123.87 $ 2009 $155,750 1738 89.41 $ 2008 $184,250 1508 127.77 $ 2008 123,750 $ 1421 96.95 $ 2007 174,000 $ 1406 123.76 $ 2007 124,000 $ 1505 88.80 $ 2006 157,000 $ 1416 117.91 $ 2006 115,000 $ 1853 77.44 $ Median Sales Price Median Square Feet Median Price Per Square Foot Median Sales Price Median Square Feet Median Price Per Square Foot 2009 $139,250 1314 113.98 $ 2009 $123,000 1689 77.10 $ 2008 $146,500 1200 121.12 $ 2008 110,000 $ 1467 79.19 $ 2007 149,950 $ 1252 116.62 $ 2007 118,750 $ 1789 69.42 $ 2006 133,500 $ 1232 111.70 $ 2006 105,000 $ 1418 74.05 $ Aztec and Bloomfield Sales Price and Size Source: SJC Assessor's Sales Data City of Aztec Mobile Homes Mobile Homes Single Family Dwellings Single Family Dwellings City of Bloomfield ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 24 5. Rental Housing Data This rental housing section includes data from the American Community Survey and from the Farmington Daily Times Rental Survey. These sources are very different types of data, but can both be used to track changes in the rental market. a. American Community Survey Rental Data Rental contract data from the American Community Survey represent a sample survey of current renters in all types of rentals. Some of which may have been in their units for many years. While the information and tracking its changes is informative, the median rental contract does not reflect the going rate of rentals that a new resident would find looking for a new home. If a family is looking for a new home or apartment to rent, the Farmington Daily Times data below is going to give a more accurate look at current available rental costs. i. Comparison of the Farmington MSA and the City of Farmington Chart 12 depicts a comparison of the City of Farmington and the Farmington MSA or San Juan County. The vertical bars show the percent of households paying different amounts for rent, blue for the Farmington MSA and purple for the City of Farmington. The two vertical dashed lines show the median contract rent for the two areas. There are very noticeable differences between the two areas. The County has higher bars on the left side in the lower rent categories, while the City has higher bars in the $600 to $1,400 categories. This shows that a higher percentage of families are paying higher contract rents in Farmington than in the County. Chart 12 Contract Rent Comparison Percent of Households by Rent Farmington MSA (SJC) and City of Farmington 2006-2008 ACS 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Less than $100 $100 to $149 $150 to $199 $200 to $249 $250 to $299 $300 to $349 $350 to $399 $400 to $449 $450 to $499 $500 to $549 $550 to $599 $600 to $649 $650 to $699 $700 to $749 $750 to $799 $800 to $899 $900 to $999 $1,000 to $1,249 $1,250 to $1,499 $1,500 to $1,999 $2,000 or more No cash rent Percent of Households by Rent Category Farmington MSA (SJC) City of Farmington Median Contract Rent SJC $531 Median Contract Rent City of Farmington $579 Rental Households in San Juan County 10,633 in City of Farmington 5,843 ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 25 ii. Gross Rent Comparison This Gross Rent Comparison chart shows the percentage of households paying certain percentages of their income in rent. A portion of this table has a nice bell curve to it, but there is a large spike in the 50% or more category. In the City of Farmington 906 families are paying more than 50% of their income on rent and this puts them in the greatest needs category. Chart 13 Gross Rent Comparison Percent of Households by Percent of Income Spent on Rent Farmington MSA (SJC) and City of Farmington 2006-2008 ACS 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Less than 10.0 percent 10.0 to 14.9 percent 15.0 to 19.9 percent 20.0 to 24.9 percent 25.0 to 29.9 percent 30.0 to 34.9 percent 35.0 to 39.9 percent 40.0 to 49.9 percent 50.0 percent or more Percent of Households by Percent of Income Spent on Rent Farmington MSA (SJC) City of Farmington MSA (SJC) Number of Households 30% or higher 3,643 City of Farmington Number of Households 30% or higher 2,173 ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 26 iii. Percent Paying 30% or More on Rent By Age Comparison Chart 14 shows the percent of households paying more than 30% of their income on rent broken down by age. In the City of Farmington 54.8 percent of those 15-24 are paying more than 30%. In the Farmington MSA, 44.7 percent of those 65 years and older are paying more then 30% of their income on rent. Chart 14 Comparison of the Farmington MSA (SJC) and the City of Farmington Percent of Housholds who pay more than 30% of their income on rent by age ACS 2006-2008 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Percent of Households Farmington MSA (SJC) 41.9% 36.5% 36.0% 44.7% City of Farmington 54.8% 36.7% 36.0% 36.6% Householder 15 to 24 years: Householder 25 to 34 years: Householder 35 to 64 years: Householder 65 years and over: Rental Households in San Juan County 10,633 in City of Farmington 5,843 b. Farmington Daily Times Rental Survey The City of Farmington has been tracking the Farmington Daily Times rental advertisements as an ongoing survey of rental activity. CDBG staff selected the month of April somewhat arbitrarily but it has been used consistently, year to year, to track changes in the market. On each April 1st, all rental ads appearing in the classifieds are selected. On each of the remaining days of April, only the ads appearing in the First Look section of the classifieds are selected. This method ensures that ads are not counted multiple times. The distribution of the Farmington Daily Times does potentially go beyond the boundaries of San Juan County, but virtually all of the rentals advertised in the paper are for Farmington, Aztec, Bloomfield, and the developed surrounding areas. This survey method does not guarantee that some rental price data from outside of the county gets into the paper, nor does it cover rentals that are not advertised in the paper, however, the methodology is consistently applied year to year. Most import though, this data is more current then a survey of what renters are paying. By looking at advertised prices as opposed to a survey of rent paid by all renters, the most current rates are reported. i. All Rentals – Median and Average Price and Units Available ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 27 This chart shows the median and average advertised rent for all rentals and tracks the results from 2000 to 2009, and the number of advertised units available. The rental price is on the left and shown on the red and blue lines. The number of units is on the right and is shown with the green line. During this time period, there has been a 97 percent increase in the median rental price and a 63 percent decrease in the number units available. Chart 15 All Rentals - Median and Average Rent and Total Number Available Farmington Daily Times Data 2000 to 2009 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 Rental Price 50 100 150 200 250 300 Number of Units Available Total Median Rent $458 $463 $461 $525 $438 $650 $650 $750 $850 $900 Total Average Rent $482 $519 $476 $534 $506 $671 $711 $800 $914 $990 Total Available 246 137 119 115 71 104 83 96 106 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 97% Increase in Median -63% Decrease in Units Available ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 28 ii. One Bedroom Rentals Chart 16 displays the average price, median price, and the number of advertised units available for one-bedroom rentals. The supply of one-bedroom rentals fell from 53 to 12, similar to the overall supply, yet the rental cost has gone up more slowly. This indicates a lower demand for one-bedroom units then larger units. Unlike the overall rental data, there was a decline in the median and average price in 2009. Chart 16 One Bedroom Rentals, Median and Average Price, and Number of Units Available 2000 to 2009 Farmington Daily Times Data $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 Rental Price 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Number of Units Available Median $352 $377 $331 $438 $400 $389 $450 $475 $613 $555 Average $378 $352 $317 $474 $366 $440 $498 $471 $587 $564 Number Available 53 27 25 16 11 15 10 12 10 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -85% Decrease of Available Units 58% Increase of Median Price ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 29 iii. Two Bedroom Rentals Chart 17 displays the average price, median price, and the number of advertised units available for two-bedroom rentals. The rental supply for two-bedroom rentals fell 81percent from 137 to 26 and the price has risen similar to the overall data. Similar to the one bedroom table above, there was a decline in the 2009 prices, which is different from increase shown in Chart 15 above. Chart 17 Two Bedroom Rentals, Median and Average Price, and Number of Units Available 2000 to 2009 Farmington Daily Times Data $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 Rental Price 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Number of Units Available Median $425 $425 $480 $463 $500 $613 $550 $608 $750 $700 Average $426 $442 $465 $438 $468 $620 $615 $643 $780 $725 Number Available 137 57 53 37 30 38 30 34 37 26 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 65% Increase in Median Price -81% Decrease of Available Units ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 30 iv. Three Bedroom Rentals Chart 18 displays the average price, median price, and the number available for three- bedroom rentals. Contrary to the one and two bedroom units, the availability of three- bedroom rentals has remained relatively steady from 2000 to 2007, but at a lower level of 44 to 51. In addition, contrary to the one and two bedroom charts above there was still a median price increase in 2009. Chart 18 Three Bedroom Rentals, Median and Average Price, and Number of Units Available 2000 to 2009 Farmington Daily Times Data $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 Rental Price 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Number of Units Available Median $600 $750 $523 $575 $835 $1,000 $875 $900 $1,000 $1,050 Average $628 $638 $574 $655 $727 $937 $867 $979 $1,046 $1,079 Number Available 44 42 27 52 21 46 30 47 53 51 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 75% Increase in Median Price 16% Increase in Units Available Significant Fluctuation Independent of Price ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 31 v. Four Bedroom Rentals Chart 19 displays the average price, median price, and the number available for four- bedroom rentals. The number of four-bedroom rentals has been steady but very limited at 10 or less units each April, from one fifth to one tenth of the three-bedroom availability. The overall advertised price increase was 209%, but in 2009 alone, there was a 33 percent increase in the median price. Antidotal information in the community says that there are many new homes being rented on the market that people cannot sell, and this could explain the very high price increase. However, there was no increase in the number of units available over 2008. Only six four-bedroom units were advertised. This is a very small number compared with other sized units. This price spike may still show a very tight rental market for larger units and a high demand for four-bedroom rentals. Chart 19 Four Bedroom Rentals, Median and Average Price, and Number of Units Available 2000 to 2009 Farmington Daily Times Data $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 Rental Price 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Number of Units Available Median $550 $800 $775 $1,088 $1,050 $925 $1,200 1275 $1,275 $1,700 Average $552 $831 $952 $890 $816 $963 $1,196 1100 $1,125 $1,883 Number Available 6 10 7 8 7 4 10 3 6 6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 209% Increase in Median Price No Change in Units Available Limited Availability ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 32 vi. Comparison of Rentals by Bedrooms Chart 20 compares the median rental costs by the number of bedrooms from 2000 to 2009. The median rental costs have increased in order of the number of bedrooms, with a 57 percent increase in the price of four bedroom rentals. This shows a significant increase in the demand for larger units. Chart 20 Median Rental Price by Number of Bedrooms, All Types 2000 to 2009 Farmington Daily Times Data $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 Median Price One Bedroom $352 $377 $331 $438 $400 $389 $450 $475 $613 $555 Two Bedroom $425 $450 $450 $450 $513 $563 $550 608 $750 $700 Three Bedroom $600 $617 $550 $759 $820 $875 $875 $900 $1,000 $1,050 Four Bedroom $550 $800 $775 $1,088 $1,050 $925 $1,200 $1,275 $1,275 $1,700 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 209% Increase 75% Increase 65% Increase 58% Increase ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 33 vii. Price of Rentals by Type of Unit Chart 21 displays the changes in median advertised rent by type of rental from 2000 to 2009, and their total percent change. Townhomes/Condos/Duplex has had the greatest increase and the largest swings of all the types of housing. In 2005 and 2007, a significant number of new town homes were completed, and their larger size, quality, and new condition significantly increased the median price in this category. As a note, there were no townhomes available in April of 2001 hence the missing data point. Chart 21 Median Rental Price by Type of Rental Farmington Daily Times Data 2000-2009 $300 $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 Rental Price Apartments $402 $414 $405 $428 $496 $543 $563 $629 $638 $650 Townhomes/Condo/Duplex $617 $523 $625 $400 $985 $708 $1,099 $925 $1,300 Houses $571 $710 $803 $891 $811 $860 $925 $960 $1,150 $1,225 Mobile Homes $416 $455 $498 $525 $421 $555 $563 $594 $700 $752 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 62% Increase 111% Increase 81% Increase 115% Increase ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 34 c. HUD Fair Market Rent Comparison HUD publishes Fair Market Rent (FMR) values each year for various communities. They are based upon the number of bedrooms in a rental unit. The Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used by a variety of agencies who provide rental assistance through Federal or State grants to determine the allowable amount of assistance that can be provided to needy families. However, the FMR values do not accurately reflect the Farmington or San Juan County rental market. CDBG staff has submitted its past rental studies to MFA and HUD for review and has successfully changed the allowed FMR for our community. Table 9 compares the HUD FMR with the Farmington Rental Study for the past four years. In 2006, the green cells show that the FMR for one and two bedroom rentals was higher. The yellow cells show the cases where the Farmington Rental Study was higher. The orange cells show where the Farmington Rental Study was more than 10 percent higher then the FMR. In fact, for the three and four bedroom apartments the difference is more than 30% in some cases. This table will be submitted to HUD and the State MFA in an attempt to change the way that the Fair Market Rent is calculated. Table 9 One Bed Two Bed Three Bed Four Bed 2009 HUD FMR $504 $607 $802 $905 Farmington Rental Study $555 $700 $1,050 $1,700 2008 HUD FMR $481 $579 $765 $863 Farmington Rental Study $613 $750 $1,000 $1,275 2007 HUD FMR $474 $571 $755 $851 Farmington Rental Study $475 $608 $900 $1,275 2006 HUD FMR $458 $552 $730 $823 Farmington Rental Study $450 $550 $875 $1,200 HUD FMR is Higher Rental Sudy is Higher Rental Study is More Than 10% Higher Comparison of HUD Fair Market Rents and Farmington's Rental Study Source: HUD User Data Sets, Farmington Daily Times Rental Data ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 35 6. Vacancy Rates Table 11 shows the vacancy rates of residential units in the City of Farmington and the Farmington MSA. It also provides for comparison the vacancy rates of the other three Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and their principal cities. This data comes from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey, which is the only source of the principal city data. The 13.1 percent vacancy rate in the Farmington MSA is very surprising. As a survey data source there is a published margin of error but this high of a vacancy rate conflicts with many other local indicators. One possibility is that abandoned or uninhabitable mobile homes are propping up this number. The 13.1 percent is especially high when you compare it with the City of Farmington’s figure of 5.7 percent. The City of Farmington’s 5.7 percent is the lowest vacancy rate in the state. This very low vacancy rate may explain why the housing prices and rental prices have continued to climb even though the sales rate has declined, as shown on Chart 23 above. Santa Fe has a unique situation where the MSA vacancy rate is lower than the City rate. This is quite the opposite of Farmington. Table 10 County Total: 45,560 358,307 63,603 76,727 Occupied 39,574 86.9% 327,431 91.4% 54,671 86.0% 69,116 90.1% Vacant 5,986 13.1% 30,876 8.6% 8,932 14.0% 7,611 9.9% City Total: 17,005 228,699 32,402 39,049 Occupied 16,029 94.3% 210,456 92.0% 27,320 84.3% 36,160 92.6% Vacant 976 5.7% 18,243 8.0% 5,082 15.7% 2,889 7.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2008 American Community Survey Vacancy Rate Comparison of the Four NM MSAs and their Principal Cities City of Las Cruces Farmington MSA (SJC) City of Farmington City of Santa Fe City of Albuquerque Albuquerque MSA Las Cruces MSA Santa Fe MSA ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 36 7. Housing Affordability Housing affordability shows the health of the community housing market and points to socio-economic groups that are in need of affordable housing. This section provides an affordability comparison between New Mexico MSA’s and Cities, and a detailed look at rental and home purchase affordability for socio-economic groups. a. Affordability Comparison of New Mexico MSA’s and Principal Cities Table 12 shows an affordability comparison of the four New Mexico MSA’s and their principal cities. The data on this table is derived from the 2006-2008 ACS. The number of households and the percent of households that expend more than 30 percent and more than 50 percent of their income on contract rent are shown on the top half of the table and the bottom half of the table shows the same for homes with mortgages. The over 30 percent rows show every household, rental or ownership, which is considered to be in the unaffordable category. The over 50 percent rows show the number and percent of households that are considered to be in greatest need. This table is very encouraging from the perspective of San Juan County and the City of Farmington. We have a much lower percentage of households paying more then 30 percent and 50 percent than the other MSA’s and Cities. Not surprisingly, Santa Fe is the worst off with 54.4 percent paying more than 30 percent of their income on rent. However, the Farmington MSA still has 3,643 households living in unaffordable rentals and 4,429 households living under an unaffordable mortgage. Table 11 # of Households % of Households # of Households % of Households # of Households % of Households # of Households % of Households MSAs Over 30 Percent 3,643 34.3% 47,581 45.9% 7,391 48.6% 12,575 51.7% 50.0 percent or more 1,822 17.1% 23,645 22.8% 3,957 26.0% 6,170 25.4% Cities Over 30 Percent 2,173 37.2% 37,411 46.4% 5,819 54.4% 8,570 53.5% 50.0 percent or more 906 15.5% 18,247 22.7% 3,208 30.0% 4,400 27.5% # of Households % of Households # of Households % of Households # of Households % of Households # of Households % of Households MSAs Over 30 Percent 4,429 27.9% 56,769 35.5% 10,102 38.8% 9,943 36.6% 50.0 percent or more 1,536 9.7% 21,164 13.2% 4,353 16.7% 3,798 14.0% Cities Over 30 Percent 1,870 22.4% 33,877 29.3% 4,658 35.7% 4,822 27.6% 50.0 percent or more 647 9.7% 12,153 12.8% 1,967 17.7% 1,833 13.6% City of Las Cruces Percent of Household Spending on Rent Farmington MSA Albuquerque MSA Santa Fe MSA Las Cruces MSA City of Santa Fe City of Farmington City of Albuquerque City of Santa Fe City of Las Cruces Housing Affordability Comparison of New Mexico MSA's and Cities Households paying more than 30% and more than 50% of their income on housing Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2008 American Community Survey Percent of Household Spending on a Mortgage Farmington MSA Albuquerque MSA Santa Fe MSA Las Cruces MSA City of Farmington City of Albuquerque ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 37 b. Tracking Affordability Chart 24 tracks affordability of purchased site built homes from 2000 to 2008. The median housing price comes from the data in this report and the median family income data comes from the ACS for 2005 to 2008. The 2000 to 2004 data comes from HUD Data Users Sets. The maximum affordable home value is from a calculated figure described with Table 14 below. The red line shows the median price of homes and the green line shows the maximum amount that the median family can afford. During the years where the red line is above the green line, housing was unaffordable. The 2008 median family income was significantly higher than the 2007 figure and has caught up with the median home prices. Chart 22 Housing Purchase Affordability from 2000 to 2008 A comparison of the median priced home and the max amount affordable to the MFI $100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000 $170,000 $180,000 $190,000 $200,000 Value in Dollars Max Affordable Home Price $117,241 $117,586 $123,103 $143,103 $152,414 $156,714 $159,686 $167,103 $195,369 Median Site Built Price $116,600 $120,000 $133,000 $133,000 $144,000 $161,207 $168,000 $188,900 $195,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Data and ACS When the Red line has been over the Green line, the housing market was unaffordable. ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 38 c. Rental Affordability for Socio-Economic Groups Table 13 below compares the median family incomes of key socio-economic groups and the median costs of rentals by number of bedrooms and the type of rental. On the left side of the table are the different family groups and types of households, with their median incomes. The next column shows the affordable (30 percent of gross income) rental payment for each group. This is what the median family in a group can afford. Across the top of the table are the rental by number of bedrooms and the type of rentals along with their median rent. In the comparison cells are a calculated percentage, which represents the percent of the group’s median income, which must be expended to pay for the median cost by bedroom and type of rental. For example, the median income American Indian Family would have to pay 27.6 percent of their income to rent a median priced three-bedroom rental, and this type of rental would be marginally unaffordable. The resulting comparison cells are color coded by the percent of the income required to pay for the rental. Families with the “greatest need” pay over 50 percent and are shaded purple. Families that pay 30 percent or more are considered unaffordable and are shaded orange. Families that pay 25 percent or more are considered marginally affordable and are shaded yellow. The green shaded cells are considered affordable. The four-bedroom rental category is only affordable to the married couple group and is only marginally affordable to 7 of the16 groups. One-bedroom units are the most affordable but are still not affordable to families over 65 and those earning 50% MFI or less. The median three-bedroom rental price is affordable to those making the median family income of $50,069, but is not affordable to those making 80% MFI or less. One bedroom units, mobile homes, and apartments are the most affordable types of units. ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 39 Table 12 Farmington, NM MSA Median Income of Group 30% of Gross Income 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed Houses Townhomes Condo Mobile Homes Apartments $613 $750 $1,000 $1,275 1,150 $ 925 $ 700 $ 638 $ Household Income White Alone 51,434 $ 1,286 $ 14.3% 17.5% 23.3% 29.7% 26.8% 21.6% 16.3% 14.9% Native American 43,526 $ 1,088 $ 16.9% 20.7% 27.6% 35.2% 31.7% 25.5% 19.3% 17.6% Hispanic or Latino 44,635 $ 1,116 $ 16.5% 20.2% 26.9% 34.3% 30.9% 24.9% 18.8% 17.2% Household Income by Age of Householder Householder under 25 years 35,357 $ 884 $ 20.8% 25.5% 33.9% 43.3% 39.0% 31.4% 23.8% 21.7% Householder 25 to 44 years 51,159 $ 1,279 $ 14.4% 17.6% 23.5% 29.9% 27.0% 21.7% 16.4% 15.0% Householder 45 to 64 years 58,283 $ 1,457 $ 12.6% 15.4% 20.6% 26.3% 23.7% 19.0% 14.4% 13.1% Householder 65 years and over 24,493 $ 612 $ 30.0% 36.7% 49.0% 62.5% 56.3% 45.3% 34.3% 31.3% Tenure - Own or Rent Owner Occupied 52,332 $ 1,308 $ 14.0% 17.2% 22.9% 29.2% 26.4% 21.2% 16.1% 14.6% Renter Occupied 40,187 $ 1,005 $ 18.3% 22.4% 29.9% 38.1% 34.3% 27.6% 20.9% 19.1% Family Income Total Median Family Income - 2008 56,657 $ 1,416 $ 13.0% 15.9% 21.2% 27.0% 24.4% 19.6% 14.8% 13.5% 80% of MFI - Moderate Income 45,326 $ 1,133 $ 16.2% 19.9% 26.5% 33.8% 30.4% 24.5% 18.5% 16.9% 50% of MFI - Low Income 28,329 $ 708 $ 25.9% 31.8% 42.4% 54.0% 48.7% 39.2% 29.7% 27.0% 30% of MFI - Very Low Income 16,997 $ 425 $ 43.2% 53.0% 70.6% 90.0% 81.2% 65.3% 49.4% 45.0% Family Type With own children under 18 years 51,467 $ 1,287 $ 14.3% 17.5% 23.3% 29.7% 26.8% 21.6% 16.3% 14.9% No own children under 18 years 60,663 $ 1,517 $ 12.1% 14.8% 19.8% 25.2% 22.7% 18.3% 13.8% 12.6% Married-couple family 72,304 $ 1,808 $ 10.2% 12.4% 16.6% 21.2% 19.1% 15.4% 11.6% 10.6% Female householder, no husband present 31,126 $ 778 $ 23.6% 28.9% 38.6% 49.2% 44.3% 35.7% 27.0% 24.6% Male householder, no wife present 46,391 $ 1,160 $ 15.8% 19.4% 25.9% 33.0% 29.7% 23.9% 18.1% 16.5% Greater than 50% of Gross Income Greater than 30% = Unaffordable Greater than 25% = Marginal Affordability Less than 25% = Affordable Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 American Community Survey 2008 Median Rental Price by # of Bedrooms 2008 Median Rental Price by Type of Rental 2008 Rental Affordability- Median Family Income by Race, Age, and Family Type Compared with Median Rental Prices by Bedrooms and Type. The percentage of the gross income is displayed. ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 40 d. Home Mortgage Affordability for Socio-Economic Groups Table 14 compares the median family incomes of socio-economic groups and their ability to purchase the median priced home, townhome/condo, or mobile home. On the left side of the table are the different family groups and household types with their median incomes. The next column shows the recommended maximum home value for each group. This value was calculated with the assistance of a banking loan officer and research on a number of internet loan calculators. A number of assumptions were made in this calculation: first time buyer, 5% down, 6.5% interest rate, PPI mortgage insurance, typical property insurance, and taxes. A number of mortgages were calculated for home values around the median prices and an average ratio of income to value was created. The final calculation used for this table is, a family’s income is 29 percent of the recommended maximum home value. For example, if a family’s income is $44,635 (median Hispanic), divide the income by 0.29 and the recommended maximum home value is $153,914. Utilities are still not included for this estimate so like in the rental affordability section above, the concept of Marginally Affordable is used. In the comparison cells, the median price for houses, townhomes/condos, and mobile homes is subtracted from the recommended maximum price by family and household groups. The green cells are positive numbers and represent affordability. The yellow cells are positive numbers but are less than $10,000 and are considered marginally affordable. If there are even minor changes in the terms of the loan or a family’s income, that type of housing could become unaffordable. The orange cells show negative numbers and by how much a family cannot afford the type of home. In Table 14, you see far less green affordable cells for housing purchases then in the rental table above. Only married couple families with the MFI of $72,304 can afford to purchase the median priced home. American Indian, Hispanic, young and old families, those making less than 50% MFI, and Female Householders, cannot even afford the median priced mobile home. ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 41 Table 13 Farmington MSA Median Income Recommended Max Home Value 2008 Median of All County Sales 2008 Houses Town Homes/ Condos Mobile Homes All Types Households 199,250 $ 185,700 $ 144,900 $ 189,000 $ White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 51,434 $ $ 177,359 (21,891) $ (8,341) $ (11,641) $ American Indian 43,526 $ $ 150,090 (49,160) $ (35,610) $ 5,190 $ (38,910) $ Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race) 44,635 $ $ 153,914 (45,336) $ (31,786) $ 9,014 $ (35,086) $ HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE 15 to 24 years 35,357 $ $ 121,921 (77,329) $ (63,779) $ (22,979) $ (67,079) $ 25 to 44 years 51,159 $ $ 176,410 (22,840) $ (9,290) $ (12,590) $ 45 to 64 years 58,283 $ $ 200,976 1,726 $ 65 years and over 24,493 $ $ 84,459 (114,791) $ (101,241) $ (60,441) $ (104,541) $ Tenure - Own or Rent Owner Occupied 52,332 $ $ 180,455 (18,795) $ (5,245) $ (8,545) $ Renter Occupied 40,187 $ $ 138,576 (60,674) $ (47,124) $ (6,324) $ (50,424) $ Family Income Median Family Income 56,657 $ $ 195,369 (3,881) $ 9,669 $ 6,369 $ 80% 45,326 $ $ 156,295 (42,955) $ (29,405) $ (32,705) $ 50% 28,329 $ $ 97,684 (101,566) $ (88,016) $ (47,216) $ (91,316) $ 30% 16,997 $ $ 58,611 (140,639) $ (127,089) $ (86,289) $ (130,389) $ Family Type With own children under 18 years 51,467 $ $ 177,472 (21,778) $ (8,228) $ (11,528) $ With no own children under 18 years 60,663 $ $ 209,183 9,933 $ Married-couple families 72,304 $ $ 249,324 Female householder, no husband present 31,126 $ $ 107,331 (91,919) $ (78,369) $ (37,569) $ (81,669) $ Male householder, no wife present 46,391 $ $ 159,969 (39,281) $ (25,731) $ (29,031) $ Source: 2008 American Community Survey Farmington MSA and 2008 San Juan County Assessor's Sales Data Unaffordable Marginal Affordability = within 10k Affordable 2008 City of Farmington Median Housing Price by Type 2008 Housing Affordability Median Family Income by Race, Age, and Family Type Compared with Median Housing Prices by Structure Type and Median County ---PAGE BREAK--- Housing Affordability 2010 Update 42 Terms and Acronyms • ACS - American Community Survey - Similar to and produced by the US Census. The data is survey based as opposed to the 100 percent counts of the Census. • CDBG – Community Development Block Grant • Farmington MSA – Data from the ACS with the same boundaries as San Juan County • FMR – Fair Market Rents • HUD – Housing and Urban Development • Median – The mid point of a data set. Median data is less affected by very high or very low data and is considered a true middle. • MSA - Metropolitan Statistical Area - Cities and their surrounding areas with a minimum population of 50,000. • MFI - Median Family Income • 80% MFI – A percentage of the Median Family Income, used as an income qualification for the CDBG program. • 50% MFI – Low Income • 30% MFI - Very Low-Income. • SFD – Single Family Dwelling • SJC – San Juan County • - San Juan County Board of Realtors – The reported sales data from the Multiple Listing Service is used. Sources 1. The American Community Survey - The US Census conducted its first American Community Survey (ACS) in the Farmington Metropolitan Statistical Area in 2005. The ACS uses a sample, unlike the Decennial Census, which is based upon 100% data. The users of this data are cautioned that there are margins of error associated with the size of the samples taken. For full details of the methods of collection and data accuracy, please consult the American Community Survey website http://www.census.gov/acs/www/ 2. The US Census provides detailed decennial data and can be found at http://www.census.gov/ 3. San Juan County Assessor – The City of Farmington would like to express its gratitude for the cooperation of the County Assessor’s office in providing detailed data on the reported sales of residential properties. As a note: no privileged or personal data was disclosed or used in the creation of this report. 4. San Juan County Board of Realtors – The City of Farmington would also like to express its gratitude for the cooperation of the Board of Realtors for providing data from the Multiple Listing Service. As a note: no privileged or personal data was disclosed or used in the creation of this report. 5. Farmington Daily Times Rental Data – All rental data was collected from the classified section of the Farmington Daily Times. That data is limited only by the geographic distribution of the newspaper delivery and advertising. The data roughly approximates the San Juan County area. 6. San Juan College Library - The City of Farmington would like to express its gratitude for the cooperation of the San Juan College Library staff for allowing significant access to the microfilm reader. 7. Housing and Urban Development, HUD - www.hud.gov 8. National Center for Children In Poverty – NCCP http://www.nccp.org/profiles/NM_profile_8.html