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EL CERRITO GENERAL PLAN BART El Cerrito transportation is also heavily influenced by BART and could change dramatically if BART were to extend service further along the Richmond Line or if a connection were made to BART in Richmond with a commute rail line, making Del Norte BART station less of a regional facility. The General Plan forecasts do not assume a BART extension because no extension has been programmed or funded within the lifetime of the General Plan. Automobile travel to individual BART stations is also heavily influenced by the amount of parking available at or near the station. Parking supply around both BART stations is decreasing, even when considering the proposed structure at the Plaza station, and no additional parking increases are programmed or funded. In view of the above factors, the traffic forecasts assume a modest 5% increase in vehicle traffic to the Del Norte BART station. Although modest, this traffic growth assumption is conservatively high, based on the fact that parking supplies at both BART stations is decreasing, and demands from local sources will be increasing as new land uses emerge in El Cerrito in accordance with the General Plan. Travel Forecasts Figure 7 showed the daily traffic volumes on major streets in El Cerrito under General Plan build-out conditions assuming land uses described in the Community Development and Design Chapter. Traffic on most residential streets in El Cerrito will remain constant. Along minor arterials, traffic will grow by 5 to 10%, with the exceptions of Eastshore Boulevard and the portion of Fairmount Avenue near San Pablo Avenue, which have projected growth of about 65 percent. Along major arterial, traffic will grow by 30 to 50 percent. For San Pablo Avenue, traffic will increase by an average of about 50 percent, or about 2.5 percent per year. Modeling Methods Traffic modeling is a four-step process consisting of trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, and trip assignment. The modeling effort undertaken as part of the El Cerrito General Plan update includes application of state-of-the-practice modeling techniques using the Contra Costa Transportation Authority (CCTA) West County Model and a local-area sub-model developed for El Cerrito. The CCTA model was used to derive regional growth and trip distribution assumptions. The sub-area model was used to generate, distribute and assign traffic from developments within El Cerrito. The local area model developed for El Cerrito contains about 20 traffic analysis zones, which is more detail than similar models in other jurisdictions and significantly more zones than are contained within the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) or CCTA models within El Cerrito. The local area model was also validated against highly sophisticated models like the CCTA and MTC models, through the series of reasonableness checks described below. 5-16 Transportation and Circulation August 30, 1999 ---PAGE BREAK--- EL CERRITO GENERAL PLAN Reasonableness Checks With all modeling efforts, it is essential that model results be reviewed for reasonableness. For the El Cerrito model, reasonableness checks included comparisons of projected growth with: historic growth trends, the CCTA model, the MTC model, and the El Cerrito Evaluation of Interstate 80 Expansion of Traffic Impact. • Historic Growth Trends - Over the last 15 years, traffic forecasts on San Pablo Avenue have increased about 0.8 percent per year. (California Department of Transportation, Volumes on California State Highways, 1980, 1990, and 1995) • CCTA Model - The CCTA model predicts a 1.5-percent per year increase in daily traffic and negligible PM peak hour traffic growth. (West Contra Costa County Action Plan for Routes of Regional Significance, December 4, 1994) • MTC Model - The MTC predicts a growth rate of less than one percent per year. (Metropolitan Transportation Commission Regional Model Loaded AM Peak Hour Networks for 1990, 2005, and 2015, February 9, 1994 and September 3, 1996) • El Cerrito Evaluation of Interstate 80 Expansion of Traffic Impact (October 11, 1995) - The subject study was prepared for the City and MTC in anticipation of the Interstate 80 reconstruction project. It predicts a reduction in San Pablo Avenue traffic levels between 1990 and 2000 due to expansion of Interstate 80 and a modest increase between 2000 and 2010, with the net result that 2010 traffic volumes would be similar to or even lower than 1995 volumes. It is important to note, that each of the above references reports traffic growth from all sources, including growth and shifts in through traffic and locally generated traffic. Therefore, the range of estimates from these references is a growth rate in total traffic on San Pablo Avenue of 1.5% a year or less. By comparison the El Cerrito General Plan build-out projected a growth rate of 2.5 percent per year. As these reasonableness checks indicate, the General Plan forecast is a worst-case assessment of potential traffic conditions. Although the General Plan forecasts, under worst-case assumptions, considerable traffic growth on El Cerrito arterials, most arterials will have sufficient capacity to accommodate expected traffic growth, but delays can be expected to increase significantly throughout the City. Specific spot improvements required to facilitate acceptable traffic flow are described in the next section. Improvements are specified in a manner that attempts to promote a balance among the competing access and mobility needs of the community. This balance will allow worse traffic congestion on the cities arterials, as long as they: 1) do not violate the City's Level of Service standards, 2) provide a closer balance between congestion on the freeway and congestion on the parallel arterial to discourage traffic diversions from the August 30, 1999 Transportation and Circulation 5-17 ---PAGE BREAK--- EL CERRITO GENERAL PLAN freeway, and 3) maintain street widths and pedestrian crossing distances at levels that promote walking, bicycling and transit use, rather than placing the primary emphasis on facilitating traffic flow. Traffic Operations The projections indicate that most intersections in El Cerrito will continue to operate at LOS C or better in the future. Around El Cerrito Plaza, the intersections of San Pablo and Central avenues and San Pablo and Fairmount avenues will deteriorate to LOS D, but will still operate acceptably. Three intersections will deteriorate to LOS E or worse and will require improvements. The intersections and improvements necessary to attain LOS D or better are described below. • San Pablo Avenue/Knott Avenue, which is controlled by stop signs on the Knott Avenue approaches, will operate at LOS F under General Plan build-out conditions. Signalization of the intersection would improve its operation to LOS C. • San Pablo Avenue/Hill Street/Eastshore Boulevard, which is a signalized intersection with five intersection approaches, is projected to deteriorate to LOS E conditions under General Plan build-out conditions. The addition of an exclusive southbound right-turn lane on San Pablo Avenue to Eastshore Boulevard, an exclusive westbound left-turn lane on Hill Street to San Pablo Avenue, and a second exclusive eastbound left-turn lane from Eastshore Boulevard to San Pablo Avenue would improve this intersection to LOS D. • Key Boulevard/Cutting Boulevard, which is controlled by all-way stop signs, will operate at LOS E under General Plan build-out conditions. The addition of a southbound right-turn lane on Key Boulevard will improve the intersection’s operations to LOS C. These improvements are not currently programmed or funded but would likely be made in combination with development of adjacent and surrounding properties. Although planning-level service level calculations indicate that the Central Avenue interchange with I-80 will operate acceptably under future conditions, due to severe operational constraints including close intersection spacing and multiple approach lanes and changes in area freeway ramp configurations, a more detailed review of traffic operations at this interchange is recommended. 5-18 Transportation and Circulation August 30, 1999 ---PAGE BREAK--- EL CERRITO GENERAL PLAN C. Goals and Policies The following goals and policies have been formulated in response to issues raised throughout the General Plan public input process. Throughout the goals and policies, the terms circulation and transportation refer to the movement of people by all modes of travel. Goal T1: A transportation system that allows safe and efficient travel by a variety of modes and promotes the use of alternatives to the single- occupant vehicle. Policies Implementation Measures T1.1 Balanced Transportation System. Create and maintain a balanced transportation system with choice of transit, bicycle, pedestrian, and private automobile modes. • Transportation System Performance Measures • Travel Demand Management • Bicycle Master Plan • Pedestrian Circulation Plan • Development Review • Traffic Monitoring August 30, 1999 Transportation and Circulation 5-19 ---PAGE BREAK--- EL CERRITO GENERAL PLAN T1.2 Transit System. Encourage transit providers to improve and increase existing transit routes, frequency, and level of service. Encourage a public transit system that provides convenient transfers between transit services and other modes of travel. • Intergovernmental Coordination • Transit First Policy T1.3 Bicycle Circulation. Create a complete, interconnected bicycle circulation system. Provide a bicycle system that serves commuter as well as recreational travel. Improve bicycle routes and access to and between major destinations. • Bicycle Master Plan • Pavement Management Plan T1.4 Pedestrian Circulation. Provide a safe, convenient, continuous and interconnected pedestrian circulation system throughout the City. Ensure safe pedestrian access to local schools. • Pedestrian Circulation Plan T1.5 Goods Movement. Maintain a transportation system that provides truck mobility to serve all land uses in El Cerrito. • Circulation Map • Development Review T1.6 Emergency Services. Maintain and improve critical transportation facilities for emergency vehicle access and emergency evacuation needs. • Circulation Map • Development Review T1.7 Regional Coordination. Recognize El Cerrito’s role in the region and lead in regional efforts to increase transit and reduce congestion. • Intergovernmental Coordination 5-20 Transportation and Circulation August 30, 1999