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City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 15 of 187 II. HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT AND INVENTORY A. INTRODUCTION The Housing Needs Assessment analyzes population and housing characteristics, identifies special housing needs among certain population groups, evaluates housing conditions, and provides other important information to support the goals, policies, and programs to meet the needs of current and future El Cerrito residents. An understanding of housing needs helps formulate an appropriate and adequate housing plan for the City. The needs assessment and inventory focuses on demographic information, such as population trends, ethnicity, age, household composition, income, employment, housing characteristics, general housing needs by income, and housing needs for specialized segments of the population. Primary data sources used in this analysis include the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census, the 2007‐ 2011 American Community Survey (ACS) 5‐Year Estimates, 2010‐2012 ACS 3‐Year Estimates the California Department of Finance (DOF), the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). These data sources are the most reliable for assessing existing conditions and provide a basis for consistent comparison with historical data and for making forecasts. B. COMMUNITY PROFILE 1. Population Trends and Characteristics The type and amount of housing need in a community is largely determined by population growth and various demographic characteristics. Factors such as age, race/ethnicity, occupation, and income level combine to influence the type of housing needed and the ability to afford housing. This section provides a summary of the changes to the population size, age, and racial/ethnic composition of the City. a. Historical, Existing, and Forecast Growth The City of El Cerrito is one of 19 cities in Contra Costa County. The DOF estimates that Contra Costa County’s population in 2014 was 1,087,008. Table II‐1 shows historical population change in El Cerrito in 10‐year increments from 1940 to 2010. El Cerrito was incorporated in 1917, and the City’s population increased steadily until the 1960s. The greatest increase occurred between 1940 and 1950, in which the City experienced an average annual growth rate of 19.3 percent. Between 1960 and 1980 the population declined as the City reached build‐out and household sizes declined. El Cerrito’s population began to increase again slowly beginning in 1980 due to an influx of residents seeking lower housing costs and larger home sizes. Between 1990 and 2000 the City gained 482 residents, increasing from 22,869 to 23,171. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 16 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II-1 Historical Population Change El Cerrito (1940-1990) Year Population Average Annual Growth Rate 1940 6,137 1950 18,011 19.31% 1960 25,437 4.12% 1970 25,190 -0.12% 1980 22,731 -1.03 1990 22,869 0.11% 2000 23,171 0.13% 2010 23,549 0.16% Source: US Census Bureau, 1940-2010. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 17 of 187 Figure II‐1shows El Cerrito’s population growth since 2000. Much of the population growth experienced in El Cerrito since 1990 has resulted from infill development, redevelopment, and changes in household size. Although El Cerrito’s population declined between 2002 and 2007, it has been steadily increasing since 2008 and is currently (2014) estimated at 24,087. Figure II-1 Population Trends El Cerrito (2000-2014) Source: Department of Finance Population Estimates, 2000-2014. Table II‐2 shows the City of El Cerrito and countywide projected population increases between 2010 and 2040 according to ABAG. In El Cerrito, ABAG has projected a 5.3 percent increase in population between 2020 and 2030 and a 5.8 percent increase between 2030 and 2040. Comparatively, ABAG has projected a 9.0 percent increase between 2020 and 2030, and a 9.3 percent increase between 2030 and 2040 countywide. ABAG projects that the number of households in El Cerrito will grow by 468 (4.6 percent) between 2010 and 2020, 470 (4.4 percent) between 2020 and 2030, and 480 (4.3 percent) between 2030 and 2040. Between 2010 and 2040 the number of persons per household is projected to increase from 2.31 to 2.37. ABAG projects Contra Costa County as a whole will experience an increase in the number of persons per household from 2.77 in 2010 to 2.85 by 2040. 23,171 23,354 23,398 23,379 23,305 23,120 23,030 22,952 23,193 23,350 23,549 23,649 23,801 23,945 24,087 22,200 22,400 22,600 22,800 23,000 23,200 23,400 23,600 23,800 24,000 24,200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 18 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II-2 Projected Population Growth El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2010-2040) 2010 2020 2030 2040 Population El Cerrito 23,549 24,700 26,000 27,500 Contra Costa County 1,049,025 1,123,500 1,224,400 1,338,400 Households El Cerrito 10,142 10,610 11,080 11,560 Contra Costa County 375,364 400,800 432,430 464,150 Persons per Household El Cerrito 2.31 2.32 2.34 2.37 Contra Costa County 2.77 2.77 2.80 2.85 Source: ABAG Preapproved data package, ABAG Projections 2013. b. Race and Ethnicity Table II‐3 shows an analysis of El Cerrito’s population by race and ethnicity in 2000 and 2010. During this time there was a slight shift in the city’s demographic distribution. From 2000 to 2010 the city’s White, non‐Hispanic population decreased by 5.7 percent. The population of Hispanic and Asian residents increased by 3.2 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. By comparison, the White, non‐Hispanic population decreased by 10.3 percent countywide and 7.7 percent in the Bay Area. In 2010 El Cerrito had a significantly larger proportion of Asian residents than countywide, but only 4.1 percent more than in the Bay Area. Table II-3 Comparison of Race/Ethnicity El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, and the Bay Area (2000 and 2010) Race/Ethnicity El Cerrito Contra Costa County Bay Area Percent (2000) Percent (2010) Percent (2000) Percent (2010) Percent (2000) Percent (2010) Non-Hispanic White 54.4% 48.7% 58.5% 48.2% 50.6% 42.9% Black 8.4% 7.6% 9.2% 9.0% 7.4% 6.5% Asian 24.6% 27.4% 10.9% 14.3% 19.1% 23.3% Two or More Races, 4.6% 5.1% 3.5% 3.8% 3.3% 3.5% Hispanic of Any Race 8.0% 11.2% 17.9% 24.6% 19.6% 23.8% Source: ABAG preapproved data package; US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 19 of 187 c. Age of Population Figure II‐2 shows a comparison of El Cerrito’s and the countywide population by age group in 2010.El Cerrito had a higher percentage of residents aged 65 and older (17.9 percent) than countywide (12.4 percent) and statewide (16.2 percent), and a lower population under 24 (22.7 percent) than either countywide (33.1 percent) or statewide (28.4 percent). Therefore, El Cerrito has a higher median age of 44 in 2010 compared to 38 for all of Contra Costa County and 35 for all of California. Individuals over the age of 35 comprised 65 percent of the city’s population in 2010, compared to 54 percent countywide and 50 percent statewide. Figure II-2 Population by Age Group El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2010) Source: ABAG preapproved data package; US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. 2. Household Type and Composition Further insight into the characteristics of the city’s population can be gained by examining the composition of the household population, such as the proportion of families with children, single adults, and single parents. 5.6% 17.1% 29.4% 29.9% 17.9% 6.4% 26.7% 26.5% 27.9% 12.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% El Cerrito Contra Costa County ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 20 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II‐4 shows that two‐person households represented the highest percentage of owner‐ occupied households in both El Cerrito and Contra Costa County at 39.3 percent and 33.9 percent, respectively. Two‐person renter‐occupied households represented a larger proportion of households in El Cerrito (32.5 percent) than countywide (25.3 percent), while countywide there were larger percentages of large (five or more persons) owner‐ and renter‐ occupied households. Table II-4 Percentage of Persons per Household El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2010) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Owner Occupied Renter Occupied 1-Person 26.2% 33.7% 19.6% 28.9% 2-Persons 39.3% 32.5% 33.9% 25.3% 3-Persons 16.4% 17.6% 17.1% 17.0% 4-Persons 12.8% 10.4% 17.0% 13.8% 5-Persons 3.8% 4.3% 7.4% 7.9% 6- Persons 0.9% 0.8% 2.9% 3.7% 7+ Persons 0.8% 0.7% 2.1% 3.3% Source: ABAG preapproved data package; US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. As described in Table II‐5 El Cerrito has a larger percentage of couples with no children (37 percent) than countywide (34 percent). El Cerrito’s proportion of families with children (26 percent) is significantly lower than countywide (37 percent). Table II-5 Household Composition by Type El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2011) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Households Percentage Households Percentage Single person (living alone) 2,853 29% 87,806 24% Family, no children 3,689 37% 125,159 34% Family with children 2,562 26% 137,256 37% Multi-person, non-family 869 8% 20,704 5% Total 9,973 100% 370,925 100% Source: ABAG preapproved data package; US Census Bureau, 2007-2011 ACS (5-Year Estimate). ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 21 of 187 Table II‐6 shows ABAG household projections for El Cerrito and Contra Costa County. Households are expected to grow at a slower rate in El Cerrito than countywide. Table II-6 Household Projections El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2013) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Number Average Annual Growth Rate Number Average Annual Growth Rate 2010 10,142 N/A 375,364 N/A 2020 10,610 0.46% 400,800 0.68% 2030 11,080 0.44% 432,430 0.79% 2040 11,560 0.43% 464,150 0.73% Source: ABAG projections, 2013. 3. Income Characteristics Table II‐7 shows the median household incomes in 2000 and 2011 in El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, and California. Income values in 2000 were adjusted using Bay Area consumer price index information and expressed in 2011 dollars. The 2007‐2011 ACS reported that the median household income in El Cerrito was $83,933, an 8.6 percent increase from the 2000 median income adjusted for inflation in 2011 dollars). By comparison, the countywide median household income was $79,135, a 7.9 percent decrease from the 2000 median income adjusted for inflation. As shown in Table II‐7, the city’s median household income is $22,301 more than the statewide median, but only $4,798 more than countywide. Table II‐7 shows the household income distribution from the 2007‐2011 ACS. A majority of the city’s households have incomes greater than $100,000 (40 percent), which is 11.3 percent more than statewide. Table II-7 Household Income Distribution El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, Bay Area, and California (2011) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Bay Area California Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Total Households 9,973 100% 370,925 100% 2,577,480 100% 12,433,172 100% Less than $24,999 1,342 13.5% 53,254 14.4% 404,254 15.7% 2,462,985 19.8% $25,000 to $49,999 1,681 16.9% 64,908 17.5% 440,575 17.1% 2,672,484 21.5% $50,000 to $74,999 1,553 15.6% 59,214 16.0% 403,087 15.6% 2,155,425 17.3% $75,000 to $99,999 1,404 14.1% 47,280 12.7% 324,123 12.6% 1,568,927 12.6% $100,000 or more 3,993 40.0% 146,269 39.4% 1,005,441 39.0% 3,573,351 28.7% Median Household Income $83,933 $79,135 N/A $61,632 Median Household Income (2000)1 $77,292 $85,961 N/A N/A Source: ABAG preapproved data package; 2007-2011 ACS (5-Year Estimate). ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 22 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Five income categories are typically used for comparative purposes. These categories are based on a percentage of the Area Median Income (AMI) and adjusted for household size: Extremely Low‐Income: household whose income is less than 30 percent of the AMI. Very Low‐Income: a household whose income is between 31 and 50 percent of the AMI. Low‐Income: a household whose income is between 51 percent to 80 percent of the AMI. Moderate‐Income: a household whose income is between 81 percent to 120 percent of the AMI. Above Moderate‐Income: a household whose income is above 120 percent of the AMI. The median income on which these five categories are based represents the mid‐point at which half of the households earn more and half earn less. In a normally distributed population (that is, one not skewed to either end of the income scale), approximately 40 percent of the population will have income within the extremely low‐, very low‐ and low‐ income ranges, about 20 percent within the moderate‐income range, and about 40 percent in the above moderate‐income range. Both the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) and the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) calculate annual income limits. The HCD calculated income limits are used to determine eligibility for certain State housing programs, and the HUD‐calculated income limits are used to determine eligibility for Section 8 and other Federal programs. Each year HUD reports the AMI the Oakland‐Fremont Metro Area. HUD uses the AMI to set income levels extremely low‐, very low‐, low, moderate‐, and above moderate‐ income) that are used in affordable housing programs and projects. According to HUD, the AMI for a four‐person household in Oakland‐Fremont Metro Area was $88,500 in 2014. For all income categories, income limits are defined for various household sizes based on a four‐ person household. Table II‐8 shows income limits for larger or smaller households, calculated by HUD. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 23 of 187 Table II-8 HUD Income Limits by Persons per Household Oakland-Fremont Metro Area (2014) Income Categories Persons per Household 1 2 3 4 5 Extremely Low-Income $19,350 $22,100 $24,850 $27,600 $29,850 Very Low-Income $32,200 $36,800 $41,400 $46,000 $49,700 Low-Income $47,350 $54,100 $60,850 $67,600 $73,050 Median-Income (100%*) $61,950 $70,800 $79,650 $88,500 $95,580 Moderate-Income (120%*) $74,340 $84,960 $95,580 $106,200 $114,696 *Percentage of Fiscal Year 2014 Estimate of Median Family Income. Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 2014. El Cerrito and Contra Costa County as a whole have a relatively similar percentage of people in the extremely low‐, very low‐ and low‐income categories. However, as shown in Table II‐9, the city has a lower percentage of households in the moderate‐income category (17.9 percent) compared to countywide (18.2 percent) and a larger percentage of households in the above‐moderate income category (49.5 percent) than countywide (47.0 percent). Table II-9 Household Income Range by Income Category City of El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2010) Income Category El Cerrito Contra Costa County Households Percent Households Percent Extremely Low Income 1,030 10.4% 41,650 11.4% Very Low Income 1,050 10.6% 37,410 10.2% Low Income 1,135 11.5% 48,360 13.2% Moderate Income 1,770 17.9% 66,452 18.2% Above Moderate Income 4,880 49.5% 171,796 47.0% Total Households 9,865 100% 365,668 100% Median Household Income (2011) $83,933 $79,135 1 Income values in 2000 were adjusted using Bay Area consumer price index information and expressed in 2011 dollars. Source: CHAS, based on 2006-2010 ACS (5-Year Estimate). 4. Poverty The poverty rate is a Federally‐defined level of income for minimum subsistence. The dollar threshold for poverty is adjusted for household size and composition. Table II‐10 provides year 2013 poverty thresholds for several types of households. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 24 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II-10 Poverty Thresholds United States (2013) Single Person 65+ $11,173 Two Adults, One Child $18,751 Single Person Under 65 $12,119 One Adult, Three Children $23,707 Two Persons 65+ $14,081 Two Adults, Two Children $23,624 Two Persons Under 65 $15,600 One Adult, Four Children $27,376 One Adult, Two Children $18,769 Two Adults, Three Children $27,801 Source: US Census Poverty Data, 2013. According to the 2007‐2011 American Community Survey (ACS) 5‐Year Estimates, El Cerrito’s poverty rate was low (7.5 percent), compared to 9.9 percent countywide, 10.1 percent in the Bay Area, and 14.4 percent statewide. As shown in Table II‐11, the city’s poverty rate grew (0.8 percent) from 2000 to 2011, whereas the countywide rate increased more substantially (2.3 percent). Table II-11 Change in Poverty Rates El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, Bay Area, and California (2000 and 2011) 2000 2011 Percent Change El Cerrito 6.7% 7.5% +0.8% Contra Costa County 7.6% 9.9% +2.3% Bay Area 8.6% 10.1% +1.5% California 14.2% 14.4% +0.2% Source: ABAG Pre-Approved data package, 2007-2011 ACS (5-Year Estimate). While Table II‐11 shows El Cerrito’s 2011 poverty rate, Table II‐12 describes 2012 poverty rates by age group. In 2012, 5.3 percent of city residents under 18 and 5.4 percent of the elderly (65 years and over) lived in poverty. Table II-12 Poverty Rates by Age El Cerrito (2012) Group Above Poverty Level Below Poverty Level Poverty Rate Under 18 years 3,503 187 5.3% 18-64 15,582 1,235 7.9% 65 years and over 4,668 256 5.4% Total 23,753 1,678 7.1% Source: 2010-2012 American Community Survey (3-Year Estimate). ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 25 of 187 5. Employment Trends a. Area Employment Profile According to the 2007‐2011 ACS, 30 percent of El Cerrito residents were employed in educational, health, and social services. Professional, scientific, management, administrative and waste management services had the second largest number of employees (18.7 percent); 6.5 percent were employed in finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing; and 8.4 percent were employed in retail trade. Table II‐13 lists major employers in El Cerrito according to the City’s 2013 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. Table II-13 Major Employers El Cerrito (Fiscal Year 2012-2013) Barnes and Noble Nation’s Bed Bath & Beyond Pastime Hardware City of El Cerrito Prospect Sierra School CVS Pharmacy Romano’s Macaroni Grill El Cerrito Royale Safeway Fat Apple’s Restaurant Shields Nursing Center Home Depot Tehiyah Day School Honda of El Cerrito Trader Joe’s Lucky’s Supermarket US Post Office Mira Vista Golf and Country Club West Contra Costa Unified School District Source: City of El Cerrito Comprehensive Annual Financial Report, 2013. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 26 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II‐14 describes the types of jobs held by residents in El Cerrito. From 2000 to 2011 the number of residents employed in the retail trade industry decreased by 3 percent, while the number of residents employed in the professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services category increased by 1.2 percent. Table II-14 Employment Profile El Cerrito (2000 and 2011) 2000 2011 2000-2011 Persons Percent Persons Percent Percent Change Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining 7 0.1% 70 0.6% 0.5% Construction 417 3.4% 527 4.4% 0.9% Manufacturing 759 6.3% 793 6.6% 0.3% Wholesale Trade 255 2.1% 211 1.8% -0.3% Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 413 3.4% 462 3.8% 0.4% Retail Trade 1,386 11.4% 1,015 8.4% -3.0% Information 650 5.4% 612 5.1% -0.3% Finance, insurance, and real estate 755 6.2% 786 6.5% 0.3% Arts, entertainment, recreation, and food services 755 6.2% 732 6.1% -0.1% Education, Health, and Social Services 3,451 28.5% 3,620 30.0% 1.5% Other services (except public administration) 488 4.0% 501 4.2% 0.2% Public Administration 669 5.5% 479 4.0% -1.5% Professional, Scientific, Management, Administrative, and Waste Management Services 2,115 17.5% 2,249 18.7% 1.2% Employed Population 12,120 100% 12,057 100% Source: ABAG preapproved data package; US Census Bureau 2000 Census and 2007-2011 ACS (5-Year Estimate). 6. Special Housing Needs a. Elderly The elderly face special housing challenges related to physical and financial conditions. Older adults experience declining mobility and self‐care capabilities, which create special housing needs and challenges. Many older adults, even those who own their homes, face financial challenges due to limited incomes from Social Security and other retirement benefits. Data on the incomes and housing expenses of the elderly indicate that a substantial number (although by no means the majority) of these older adults may need assistance related to: Repair and maintenance of owned dwellings units; Modifications to existing homes to better meet mobility and self‐care limitation; Financial assistance to meet rising rental costs for those who do not own; and Supportive services to meet daily needs. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 27 of 187 Table II‐15 shows the elderly population (65 and older) in El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, and the Bay Area in 2000 and 2010. From 2000 to 2010 the City of El Cerrito experienced a slight decrease in the number of individuals ages 65 to 84; however, there were increases both countywide and in the Bay Area. Despite the decrease in the number of elderly residents in El Cerrito from 2000 to 2010, the city’s proportion of elderly residents was still larger than the proportion countywide (see Figure II‐2). Table II-15 Elderly Population and Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, and Bay Area (2000 and 2010) Age El Cerrito Contra Costa County Bay Area 2000 2010 AAGR 2000 2010 AAGR 2000 2010 AAGR 65 to 74 years 2,039 1,973 -0.3% 54,722 70,719 2.9% 389,437 467,258 2.0% 75 to 84 years 2,026 1,397 -3.1% 39,179 40,347 0.3% 272,643 279,326 0.2% 85+ years 668 857 2.3% 13,371 19,372 4.4% 95,427 131,645 3.8% Total 4,733 4,227 107,272 130,438 757,507 878,229 Source: ABAG preapproved data package; US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census. In 2012 the incidence of poverty in El Cerrito was lower among the population over 65 years of age (5.4 percent) than it was for the total population of the city (7.1 percent).This is likely due to programs like Social Security that provide assistance to senior households. Older adults tend to have the highest rates of homeownership of any age group. In 2010 seniors represented about 18 percent of El Cerrito’s population, but made up 36 percent of all homeowners (2,219) and only 14 percent of renters (566). Table II‐16 describes the income composition of seniors in El Cerrito and countywide in 2011. In El Cerrito 23 percent of the city’s elderly population had an income below $30,000 and 29 percent had an income of over $100,000. Using the city’s 2011 median household income of $83,933, several senior households in El Cerrito would fall into the extremely low‐ or very low‐income categories. Table II-16 Senior Households by Income El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2011) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Number Percent Number Percent Total 2,554 100% 76,950 100% Income under $30,000 599 23% 22,677 29% $30,000 to $49,999 465 18% 14,908 19% $50,000 to $74,999 487 19% 13,831 18% $75,000 to $99,999 284 11% 8,225 11% More than $100,000 719 29% 17,309 23% Source: ABAG preapproved data package; 2007-2011 ACS (5-Year Estimate). ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 28 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Some seniors require assisted living facilities that combine meal, medical, and daily living assistance in a residential environment. Table II‐17 shows the State Department of Social Services licensed elderly care facilities that provide services in El Cerrito. All offer assisted living services in a residential home setting. Table II-17 State Department of Social Services Licensed Elderly Care Facilities El Cerrito (2014) Name Address License Status Facility Capacity Adams Care Home 7400 Potrero Avenue Licensed 6 Bayview Happy Home 1345 Scott Street Licensed 6 El Cerrito Royale 6510 Gladys Avenue Licensed 145 Grace Elder Care 2610 Francisco Way Licensed 6 Grace Homes 3 LLC 635 Ashbury Avenue Licensed 4 Red Maple Residential Home 7100 Manila Avenue Licensed 6 RN Loving Care Home 1299 Lawrence Street Licensed 6 Rn3 Loving Care Home I 917 Elm Street Licensed 6 Rn3 Loving Care Home II 921 Elm Street Licensed 6 Rn3 Loving Care Home III 1320 Devonshire Drive Licensed 6 Rn3 Loving Care Home IV 8320 Buckingham Drive Licensed 6 Via Community 253 Pomona Avenue Licensed 6 Wagaya Assisted Living 905 Elm Street Licensed 6 Yume Assisted Living 7450 Moeser Lane Licensed 6 Source: State of California Care Network, 2010, Department of Social Services, 2014. The facilities listed above are primarily institutional care facilities. There is also a need in the community to provide high quality, independent‐living senior housing that provides on‐site assisted care and individual living units. Because many seniors desire to “downsize” when they move, these senior housing developments would likely be higher density projects with on‐site supportive services. An increase in this type of available housing for seniors makes it possible for them to sell their homes and remain in the community. b. Persons with Disabilities Less than 11 percent of the city’s non‐institutionalized residents have physical conditions that affect their abilities to live independently in conventional residential settings. These individuals have mobility impairments, self‐care limitations, or other conditions that may require special housing accommodations or financial assistance. Individuals with such disabilities can have a number of special needs that distinguish them from the population at large. Individuals with mobility difficulties (such as those confined to wheelchairs) may require special accommodations or modifications to their homes to allow for continued independent ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 29 of 187 living. Such modifications are often called “handicapped access.” Individuals with self‐care limitations (which can include persons with mobility difficulties) may require residential environments that include in‐home or on‐site support services, ranging from congregate to convalescent care. Support services can include medical therapy, daily living assistance, congregate dining, and related services. Individuals with developmental disabilities and other physical and mental conditions that prevent them from functioning independently may require assisted care or group home environments. Some people with mobility and/or self‐care limitations are able to live with their families to assist in meeting housing and daily living needs. A segment of the disabled population, particularly low‐income and retired individuals, may not have the financial capacity to pay for needed accommodations or modifications to their homes. In addition, even those able to pay for special housing accommodations may find them unavailable in the city. Disabled persons often require special housing features to accommodate physical limitations. Some disabled persons may have financial difficulty due to the cost of having their special needs met or due to difficulty in finding appropriate employment. Although the California Administrative Code Title 24 requires that all public buildings and “covered multifamily dwellings” (as defined in the California Government Code, Section 12955.1) be accessible to the public through architectural standards such as ramps, large doors, and restroom modifications to enable handicap access, not all available housing units have these features. According to 2010‐2012 ACS, there were approximately 2,597 non‐institutionalized disabled persons over age five in El Cerrito. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 30 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II‐18 compares the number of people with disabilities by age group. The majority of the population with disabilities is in the senior group (aged 65 years and older). Most of the disabilities in this group are ambulatory (22.4 percent), followed by independent living difficulty, and self‐care. About 1,369 residents reported disabilities that prevented them from living without assistance; an estimated 1,004, or 73.3 percent, of these residents were seniors. Countywide the majority of the population with disabilities is in the adult group (aged 18 to 64); 26,296 people experienced ambulatory difficulty and 20,619 people of people aged 18‐64 experienced cognitive difficulties. It is important to note that the percentages may not sum to 100 percent as residents may have more than one disability. Table II-18 Persons With Disabilities El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2012) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Age Group Number Percent Number Percent Total Population 5-17 2,430 194,072 5-17 years old with a disability 123 5.0% 8,331 4.3% With a hearing difficulty 18 0.7% 1,037 0.5% With a vision difficulty 39 1.6% 1,484 0.8% With a cognitive difficulty 88 3.6% 6,082 3.1% With an ambulatory difficulty 16 0.7% 1,176 0.6% With a self-care difficulty 62 2.5% 1,862 1.0% Total Population 18-64 16,706 734,704 18-64 years old with a disability 867 5.2% 51,181 7.0% With a hearing difficulty 153 1.0% 9,007 1.2% With a vision difficulty 46 0.3% 8,675 1.2% With a cognitive difficulty 226 1.4% 20,619 2.8% With an ambulatory difficulty 515 3.1% 26,296 3.6% With a self-care difficulty 247 1.5% 8,974 1.2% With an independent living difficulty 365 2.2% 18,642 2.6% Total Population 65 years and over 4,694 137,556 65 years and over with a disability 1,067 22.7% 46,110 33.5% With a hearing difficulty 562 12.0% 16,851 12.3% With a vision difficulty 218 4.7% 7,040 5.1% With a cognitive difficulty 642 13.7% 11,185 8.2% With an ambulatory difficulty 1,047 22.4% 28,926 21.1% With a self-care difficulty 660 14.1% 11,023 8.1% With an independent living difficulty 1,004 21.4% 22,477 16.4% All Ages with a Disability 2,057 105,622 Total Population 23,830 1,066,333 Source: 2010-2012 ACS data (3-Year Estimate). ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 31 of 187 Developmental Disabilities SB 812, which took effect January 2011, amended State housing element law to require an evaluation of the special housing needs of persons with developmental disabilities. A ʺdevelopmental disabilityʺ is defined as a disability that originates before an individual becomes 18 years old, continues or can be expected to continue indefinitely, and constitutes a substantial disability for that individual. This includes mental retardation, cerebral palsy, epilepsy, and autism. According to the California Department of Developmental Services (DDS), El Cerrito currently (2014), has 46 individuals under 18 years old and 47 individuals 18 years or older with a developmental disability. Of the developmentally‐disabled population in El Cerrito, about 91 percent live in their own home, and the remaining live either in an independent living facility, community care facility, or foster home. However, this count only includes residents who use DDS services. It is possible the count is much higher. An estimate from the Housing Consortium of the East Bay (HCEB) estimates 150 individuals with developmental disabilities in El Cerrito. This estimate includes 52 individuals younger than 14, 24 between the ages of 15 and 22, 70 ages 23 to 54, two ages 55 to 65, and two above the age of 65. According to HCEB, there will be 50 more housing units needed for residents with developmental disabilities in El Cerrito by 2023. c. Female Heads of Households Most female‐headed households are either single elderly women or single mothers. Traditionally, these two groups have been considered special needs groups because their incomes tend to be lower, making it difficult to obtain affordable housing, or because they have specific physical needs related to housing (such as child care or assisted living support). Single mothers, in particular, tend to have difficulty obtaining suitable, affordable housing. Such households also have a greater need for housing with convenient access to child‐care facilities, public transportation, and other public facilities and services. As shown in Table II‐19 female‐headed families made up 16.9 percent of total families in El Cerrito, compared to 17.6 percent countywide and 17.4 percent in the Bay Area. Female‐ headed families with children under 18 made up 47.9 percent of the 1,047 female‐headed families in El Cerrito, which was less than the 60.9 percent countywide and 58.0 percent in the Bay Area. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 32 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II-19 Female-Headed Families El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, and the Bay Area (2010) Total Families Female-Headed Family Female-Headed Family With children under 18 Female-Headed Family With No children under 18 Number Percent Number Percent of Total Families Number Percent of female- headed families Number Percent of female- headed families El Cerrito 6,166 100% 1,047 16.9% 502 47.9% 545 52.1% Contra Costa County 265,280 100% 46,706 17.6% 28,421 60.9% 18,285 39.1% Bay Area 1,685,972 100% 293,126 17.4% 169,879 58.0% 123,247 42.0% Source: ABAG Pre-Approved Data Package, 2010 Census. According to the 2010‐2012 ACS, 8.4 percent of female‐headed families are classified as living below the poverty level, and female‐headed families with related children under 18 are more likely to live in poverty (20.2 percent) than married couple families (3.0 percent). It may be assumed that most of these households are overpaying for housing more than 30 percent of their income), or are experiencing other unmet housing needs. As a result of poverty, female heads of households often spend more on immediate needs such as food, clothing, transportation, and medical care, than on home maintenance, which can result in living units falling into disrepair. d. Large Households The Census Bureau defines large households as households of five or more individuals. Large households often face special challenges in the housing market because they need to find housing of sufficient size (three or more bedrooms) and do not always have sufficient income to purchase or rent such housing. Table II‐20 shows household size by tenure. In 2010, large households accounted for 5.6 percent of all households, or 566 households in El Cerrito, compared to 13.2 percent in Contra Costa County. Large owner and renter households represented 334 or 59 percent and 232 or 41 percent, respectively, of the large households in El Cerrito. In comparison renters comprised 39.4 percent of all El Cerrito households, indicating that large households were more likely to rent than the city’s population as a whole. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 33 of 187 Table II-20 Household Size by Tenure El Cerrito (2010) Total Owner Occupied Total Renter Occupied El Cerrito Contra Costa County Bay Area El Cerrito Contra Costa County Bay Area All Households Households 6,145 251,904 1,465,362 3,997 123,460 1,142,661 Percent 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 1-person household Households 1,607 49,321 297,554 1,346 35,374 383,371 Percent 26.2% 19.6% 20.3% 33.7% 28.9% 33.6% 2-person household Households 2,415 85,270 487,169 1,300 31,253 310,670 Percent 39.3% 33.9% 33.2% 32.5% 25.3% 27.2% 3-person household Households 1,005 43,148 253,975 702 21,036 175,156 Percent 16.4% 17.1% 17.3% 17.6% 17.0% 15.3% 4-person household Households 784 42,939 242,922 417 17,036 134,567 Percent 12.8% 17.0% 16.6% 10.4% 13.8% 11.8% 5-person household Households 231 18,516 101,041 172 9,813 71,081 Percent 3.8% 7.4% 6.9% 4.3% 7.9% 6.2% 6-person household Households 56 7,326 42,950 32 4,515 33,693 Percent 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 0.8% 3.7% 2.9% 7+ person household Households 47 5,384 39,751 28 4,073 34,123 Percent 0.8% 2.1% 2.7% 0.7% 3.3% 3.0% Source: ABAG Pre-Approved Data Package, 2010 U.S. Census. According to 2006‐2010 CHAS data 83, or 14 percent of large households in El Cerrito overpaid for housing (spent 30 percent or more of their household income on housing) in 2010, compared to 37 percent of all households (See Table II‐34 Overpayment by Tenure). Another issue that large households can face is overcrowding, defined as households with more than 1.01 persons per room. The 2010‐2012 ACS reported that only 0.09 percent of El Cerrito households were overcrowded, many of which are likely to be large families based on the definition of overcrowding. However, this is a very small percentage of households. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 34 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II‐21 shows that large households tend to have higher median household incomes than smaller households. However, even if large households have the income of a smaller household, it is split between more people. This means that less income is typically available to be spent on housing. The median household income for large households in El Cerrito is higher than countywide. Table II-21 Median Household Income by Household Size El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2011) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Total Median Income $83,933 $79,135 1-person household $41,993 $40,919 2-person household $91,250 $85,497 3-person household $99,733 $96,653 4-person household $124,526 $111,971 5-person household $102,639 $95,901 6-person household $112,500 $92,991 7+ person household $130,733 $85,382 Note: 2011 Inflation adjusted dollars Source: ABAG preapproved data package, 2010 U.S. Census As shown in Table II‐22 large housing units are not as common in El Cerrito. A majority of housing units in the city have either two or three bedrooms (72.1 percent). Only 17 percent of housing units in El Cerrito have four or more bedrooms, compared to 31.4 percent countywide and 22.3 percent in the Bay Area. Table II-22 Total Housing Units by Number of Bedrooms El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, and Bay Area (2011) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Bay Area No bedroom 1.3% 1.2% 3.8% 1 bedroom 9.7% 9.5% 15.2% 2 bedrooms 37.8% 23.3% 26.8% 3 bedrooms 34.3% 34.6% 31.9% 4 bedrooms 13.7% 24.4% 17.6% 5+ bedrooms 3.3% 7.0% 4.7% Source: ABAG Pre-Approved Data Package, 2007-2011 ACS. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 35 of 187 e. Farmworkers El Cerrito is not an agricultural area. Therefore, the likelihood of special farmworker housing needs is extremely low. According to the 2010‐2012 ACS, less than 1 percent of the Cityʹs residents were employed in farming, forestry, and fishing occupations of the total labor force. Given El Cerrito’s location in an urban region, it is likely that few, if any, of these “farmworkers” are employed in crop production or harvesting and would require special farmworker housing. If needed, the construction of a farmworker housing project is allowed within all residential and commercial zones. The Employee Housing Act requires local governments to treat employee housing providing accommodations for six or fewer employees the same way as a single family unit with a residential land use designation. The City cannot require a conditional use permit or other permit that is not required of a family dwelling of the same type in the same zone, and use of a family dwelling for the purposes of employee housing for six or fewer occupants shall not constitute a change of occupancy. The City complies with these requirements of State law. f. Homeless Population The homeless population has a wide variety of needs that impact access to housing, including physical and mental disabilities, HIV, and substance abuse. Depending on an individual’s circumstances, these needs may be addressed via emergency shelters, transitional housing, or supportive housing. It is challenging to accurately count homeless populations, which include people living in vehicles and in places not designed to be permanent housing (such as motels) in addition to those on the streets and in shelters. Contra Costa County conducts a point‐in‐time count every two years of the sheltered (annual count) and unsheltered (bi‐annual count) homeless living in the county. The count is typically conducted in the winter, when seasonal demand is likely at its highest. The 2013 Contra Costa County Homeless Census found 3,798 total homeless, of which 2,448 were sheltered and 1,350 were unsheltered. The 2013 count found an overall decrease in the number of individuals experiencing homelessness, from 4,274 persons in 2011. Table II‐23 describes the unsheltered homeless population by region within the county. El Cerrito is in the West County Region of Contra Costa County, along with Crockett, El Sobrante, Hercules, North Richmond, Pinole, Richmond, Rodeo, and San Pablo. Of the 376 unsheltered homeless persons identified in the West County Region, approximately 7.2 percent (27 persons) were counted in the City of El Cerrito. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 36 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II-23 Unsheltered Homeless Persons West Region of Contra Costa County (2013) Location Number Percent Crockett 19 5.1% El Cerrito 27 7.2% El Sobrante 48 12.8% Hercules 18 4.8% North Richmond 13 3.5% Pinole 20 5.3% Richmond 142 37.8% Rodeo 3 0.8% San Pablo 86 22.9% Total 376 100% Source: Contra Costa Inter-Jurisdictional Council on Homelessness 2013 Count. There are no homeless or transitional shelters located in El Cerrito. The closest shelters are located in Richmond, including: the Bay Area Crisis Nursery, which provides 20 year‐round individual beds; Calli House Youth Shelter, with six year‐round beds for transition‐age youth; Emergency Shelter, with 75 year‐round beds for families with children; and Bay Area Rescue Mission with 150 year‐round beds for families with children. Building Opportunities for Self‐Sufficiency’s (BOSS) multi‐agency services center in the City of Berkeley – located south of El Cerrito – is also a resource center for homeless persons in El Cerrito. In terms of permanent housing serving the formerly homeless, the City of El Cerrito was a sponsor of the Idaho Apartments, a 28‐unit affordable housing development located on the El Cerrito‐Richmond border. In addition, the Ohlone Gardens Apartments, currently under construction, will include ten units for households with special needs, including supportive services where appropriate. Contra Costa County is the primary planning agency charged with providing services to the homeless throughout the County. The County’s Public Health Division offers a variety of homeless programs such as the Shelter Plus Care (S+C) Program; Project HOPE; Project Coming Home; Health, Housing and Integrated Services Network (HHISN); and other programs. They are made available to all Contra Costa County residents, including those in El Cerrito. Besides the County, there are a number of private non‐profit organizations in and around the Bay Area that provide services to the homeless and special needs groups. They include Shelter, Inc., Rubicon Programs, Inc., The Food Bank of Contra Costa and Solano, American Red Cross, and Bay Area Rescue Mission. The City supports the County’s “Ending Homelessness in Ten Years: A County‐Wide Plan for the Communities of Contra Costa County” (Ten Year Plan); particularly its “housing first” strategy, which works to immediately house a homeless individual or family rather than force them through a sequence of temporary shelter solutions. Additionally, the City supports the Ten Year Plan goal of deemphasizing emergency shelters by supporting “interim housing,” also ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 37 of 187 referred to as “transitional housing,” as a preferred housing type. Interim housing is very short‐term and focuses on helping people access permanent housing as quickly as possible. Services provided in interim housing include housing search assistance and case management to help address immediate needs and identify longer‐term issues to be dealt with once in permanent housing. The Idaho Apartments, operated by Rubicon Programs, is an example of permanent rental housing that offers supportive services for its residents. Consistent with the Ten Year Plan, the City will prioritize the use of its limited housing development resources to support permanent housing affordable to those with extremely low, very low‐, and low‐incomes. State law (Government Code 65583 requires local jurisdictions to identify a zone or zones where emergency shelters are allowed as a permitted use without a conditional use or other discretionary permit. The City Zoning Ordinance allows emergency shelters as a permitted use within the Community Commercial (CC) zone, as well as the Transit‐ Oriented High‐Intensity Mixed‐Use (TOHIMU) and the Transit‐Oriented Medium‐Intensity Mixed‐Use (TOMIMU) zones of the San Pablo Avenue Specific Plan, subject to the operating standards defined in the Plan. g. Extremely Low-Income Households Extremely low‐income households are defined as those households with incomes under 30 percent of the County median income. Extremely low‐income households typically consist of minimum wage workers, seniors on fixed incomes, the disabled, and farmworkers. This income group is likely to live in overcrowded and substandard housing conditions. This group of households has specific housing needs that require greater government subsidies and assistance, housing with supportive services, single room occupancy (SRO), shared housing, and/or rental subsidies or vouchers. In recent years, rising rents, higher income and credit standards imposed by landlords, and insufficient government assistance has exacerbated the problem. Without adequate assistance this group has a high risk of homelessness. In 2014 the HUD median income in Contra Costa County was $88,500. For extremely low‐ income households, this results in an income of $26,550 or less for a four‐person household. Households with extremely low incomes have a variety of housing situations and needs. In 2011, approximately 960 extremely low‐income households resided in the City, representing 9.6 percent of the total households. Most (78.6 percent) extremely low‐income households experience one or more housing problems. These concerns include incomplete kitchen facilities, incomplete plumbing facilities, overcrowding, and overpayment, exist for 84.1 percent of extremely low‐income renters and 69.4 percent of extremely low‐income owners. Extremely low‐income households are more likely to rent; 62.5 percent of extremely low‐ income households rent compared to 38.4 percent of the total households in El Cerrito that rent. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 38 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II-24 Housing Problems in Extremely Low-Income Households El Cerrito (2011) Household by Type, Income, & Housing Problem Owners Renters Total Households Extremely Low-Income Households 360 600 960 % with any housing problems 69.4% 84.1% 78.6% Total Households 6,145 3,830 9,975 % with any housing problems 30.0% 49.3% 37.3% Source: Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy, 2007-2011 data. To calculate the projected housing needs, the City assumed that 50 percent of extremely low‐income households make up its very low‐income regional housing needs allocation. As a result, from the very low‐income need of 100 units, the City has a projected need of 50 units for extremely low‐income households by 2022. Many extremely low‐income households will be seeking rental housing and most likely facing an overpayment, overcrowding, or substandard housing condition. Some extremely low‐income households could have mental or other disabilities and special needs. 7. Existing Housing Stock a. Housing Composition Table II‐25 shows housing estimates in El Cerrito, countywide, and statewide. According to the California Department of Finance (DOF) over two‐thirds of the units in El Cerrito in 2014 are single family detached (69.8 percent), 13.5 percent are multiple units of five or more, 12.9 percent are multiple units of two to four, 3.2 percent are single family attached housing and 0.5 percent are mobile homes. The definition of housing unit, including mobile home, used by the DOF is a self‐reported description of the type of housing unit a survey respondent lived in. The housing types reported in Table II‐25 do not necessarily correspond to regulated land use types or property tax assessment codes. As shown in Table II‐25, El Cerrito has a greater proportion of units in multifamily complexes with two to four housing units (12.9 percent) compared to countywide (7.0 percent) and statewide (8.1 percent), but a lower proportion of units in larger multifamily complexes (13.5 percent), compared to countywide (16.8 percent). In 2014 the average household size was 2.36 persons per household, which is lower than the countywide 2.83 persons per household. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 39 of 187 b. Housing Occupancy and Tenure Vacancy rate can be a good indicator of how effectively for‐sale and rental units are meeting the current demand for housing in a community. Vacancy rates of 6 or 7 percent for rental housing and 1 to 2 percent for ownership housing are generally considered optimum, where there is a balance between the demand and supply for housing. A higher vacancy rate may indicate an excess supply of units and, therefore, price depreciation, while a low vacancy rate may indicate a shortage of units and escalation of housing prices. Of the 10,730 year‐round dwelling units in El Cerrito reported by the DOF in January 2014, 10,156 units (94.7 percent) were occupied and 574 units (5.3 percent) were vacant. By comparison, 93.8 percent of the dwelling units countywide were occupied and 6.2 percent were vacant. Table II‐26 shows that, in 2012, El Cerrito had a lower homeowner vacancy rate (1.0 percent) compared to the countywide rate (1.6 percent). El Cerrito also has a lower rental vacancy rate of 3.5 percent compared to the countywide rental vacancy rate of 5.7 percent. El Cerrito’s low vacancy rates indicate there is a limited supply of available units in the city. Table II-26 Housing Occupancy El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2014) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Number Percent Number Percent Occupied housing units 10,156 94.7% 380,562 93.8% Vacant housing units 574 5.3% 25,266 6.2% Total housing units 10,730 100% 405,828 100% 2012 Homeowner vacancy rate1 1.0% 1.6% 2012 Rental vacancy rate1 3.5% 5.7% 1 American Community Survey 2010-2012 (3-Year Estimate). Source: Department of Finance City/County/State Population and Housing Estimates, January 2014. Table II-25 Housing Estimates El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, and California (2014) Housing Type El Cerrito Contra Costa County California Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Single Detached 7,487 69.8% 270,316 66.6% 8,038,217 58.1% Single Attached 345 3.2% 31,678 7.8% 972,976 7.0% Multifamily, Two to Four 1,389 12.9% 28,583 7.0% 1,119,175 8.1% Multifamily, Five or More 1,450 13.5% 67,982 16.8% 3,154,907 22.8% Mobile Homes 59 0.5% 7,269 1.8% 560,000 4.0% Total 10,730 100% 405,828 100% 13,845,281 100% Source: Department of Finance City/County/State Population and Housing Estimates (Table E-5), 2014. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 40 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II‐27 shows owner‐occupancy rates and renter‐occupancy rates by race/ethnicity in 2012. Table II‐27 shows El Cerrito’s Hispanic or Latino population is more likely to rent (74.4 percent) than own (25.6 percent) and the Asian population has higher rates of owner‐ occupancy (70.1 percent) than renter‐occupancy (29.9 percent). Table II-27 Owner-Occupied and Renter-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity El Cerrito (2012) Race/Ethnicity Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Number Percentage Number Percentage White 3,899 58.9% 2,717 41.1% Black or African American 312 48.7% 329 51.3% Asian 1,621 70.1% 694 29.9% Other 51 23.1% 170 76.9% Two or More Races 217 56.2% 169 43.8% Hispanic or Latino 244 25.6% 710 74.4% Not Hispanic or Latino 3,733 62.5% 2,244 37.5% Source: American Community Survey 2010-2012 (3-Year Estimate). Table II‐28 describes housing tenure by age according to 2010‐2012 ACS. In El Cerrito, homeowners tended to be age 45 and older (83 percent). A larger percentage of El Cerrito’s renters were under the age of 45 (47.4 percent) compared to the percentage of homeowners under the age of 45 (17 percent), which is similar to countywide rates (55.3 percent and 24.4 percent, respectively). Table II-28 Tenure by Age El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2012) El Cerrito Contra Costa County Age Owners Renters Owners Renters Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent 15 to 24 0 0.0% 208 5.1% 890 0.4% 8,479 6.5% 25 to 34 225 3.7% 1,039 25.3% 16,203 6.6% 31,547 24.1% 35 to 44 811 13.3% 697 17.0% 42,369 17.4% 32,333 24.7% 45 to 54 1,195 19.6% 787 19.2% 63,033 25.9% 24,902 19.1% 55 to 64 1,443 23.5% 792 19.4% 55,968 22.9% 17,537 13.4% 65 to 74 1,178 19.3% 269 6.6% 36,550 15.0% 7,300 5.6% 75 and over 1,258 20.6% 308 7.5% 28,744 11.8% 8,706 6.6% Total 6,110 100% 4,100 100% 243,748 100% 130,804 100% Source: American Community Survey 2010-2012 (3-Year Estimate). c. Age and Condition of Housing Stock The age and condition of the housing stock provide additional measures of housing adequacy and availability in many communities. Although age does not always correlate with substandard housing conditions, neighborhoods with a preponderance of homes more ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 41 of 187 than 40 years old are more likely than newer neighborhoods to have a concentration of housing problems related to deferred maintenance, inadequate landscape care, outdated utilities or interior amenities, and a need for housing rehabilitation. The year a structure was built can, at times, be an indicator of the current condition of the housing unit. Housing units built before 1940 may be old, but may not necessarily be in a rundown condition if properly maintained. In contrast, newer homes that were built equipped with adequate utilities and amenities may already be rundown due to abuse or general lack of care. However, it is useful to look at the age of the housing stock to determine where inadequacies may exist, or why certain units remain vacant. Table II‐29 shows that nearly two‐thirds of housing units in El Cerrito were built before 1960 (65.6 percent). Less than 10 percent of El Cerrito’s housing units were built after 1980 (9.4 percent). Table II-29 Age of Housing Units El Cerrito (2012) Year Number of Units Percentage 1939 or earlier 1,478 13.5% 1940 to 1949 2,905 26.5% 1950 to 1959 2,798 25.5% 1960 to 1969 1,296 11.8% 1970 to 1979 1,459 13.3% 1980 to 1989 392 3.6% 1990 to 1999 317 2.9% 2000-2009 308 2.8% 2010 and later 8 0.1% Total 10,961 100% Source: 2010-2012 American Community Survey (3-Year Estimate). d. Overcrowding Generally overcrowding is a measure of the ability of existing housing to adequately accommodate residents and can result in deterioration of the quality of life within a community. The U.S. Census defines an “overcrowded” household as 1.01 or more persons per room, excluding bathrooms, porches, balconies, foyers, halls, and half‐rooms. “Severe overcrowding” occurs in households with more than 1.5 persons per room. Overcrowding typically results when either: 1) the costs of available housing with a sufficient number of bedrooms for larger families exceeds the family’s ability to afford such housing, or 2) unrelated individuals (such as students or low‐wage single adult workers) share dwelling units due to high housing costs. This can lead to overcrowded situations if the housing unit is not large enough to accommodate all of the people effectively. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 42 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II‐30 summarizes the overcrowding status in El Cerrito and countywide. Less than one percent of the City’s occupied households lived in overcrowded conditions in 2012; 0.8 percent of owners were overcrowded and 1.1 percent of renters were overcrowded. By comparison, 1.6 percent of the owners and 6.8 percent of renters were overcrowded countywide. No occupied housing units were severely overcrowded in El Cerrito, while about one percent of households were severely overcrowded countywide. In 2012 the average household size for owners was 2.44 persons in El Cerrito and 2.83 countywide. The average household size for renters was 2.13 in El Cerrito and 2.79 countywide. Table II-30 Persons Per Room in All Occupied Housing Units El Cerrito and Contra Costa County (2012) Occupants Per Room El Cerrito Contra Costa County Owners Renters Owners Renters Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent .50 or less 5,143 84.2% 2,751 67.1% 178,484 73.2% 68,704 52.5% .51 to 1.00 917 15.0% 1,303 31.8% 60,344 24.8% 50,465 38.6% 1.01 to 1.50 50 0.8% 46 1.1% 3,855 1.6% 8,859 6.8% 1.51 to 2.00 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 648 0.3% 1,992 1.5% 2.01 or more 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 417 0.2% 784 0.6% Total 6,110 100% 4,100 100% 243,748 100% 130,804 100% Source: 2010-2012 American Community Survey (3-Year Estimate). 8. Housing Costs a. Rental Rates A 2009 survey of rental rates in the city and surrounding communities reveals a variety of units and the different rental price ranges. Table II‐31 shows El Cerrito’s rental prices appear to be higher than some of the neighboring communities. Table II-31 Median Rental Rates El Cerrito and surrounding Cities (2009) City Median Rent by Bedroom Type: Bedroom (BR)/Bath (BA) Studio 1BR/1BA 2 BR/1BA 2BR/1+BA 3BR/1+BA El Cerrito $756 $1,217 $1,260 $1,515 $1,387 Pinole $800 $944 $1,082 $1,798 $1,610 Richmond $985 $888 $1,026 $1,510 $2,450 San Pablo $870 $899 $1,247 $1,908 $1,751 Pleasant Hill $989 $1,202 $1,236 $1,478 $2,004 Concord None $875 $1,073 $1,369 $1,725 Martinez $723 $1,137 $1,204 $1,512 $1,860 Walnut Creek $1,122 $1,075 $1,090 $1,578 $2,725 El Sobrante $1,256 $1,247 $1,264 $1,639 $1,406 Source: 2010-2015 Contra Costa County Draft Consolidated Plan. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 43 of 187 Figure II‐3 shows the change in average rents in El Cerrito since 2006. Rents remained fairly even between 2006 and 2010, but began increasing in 2010, and even more rapidly in 2012. In 2014 the average rent is $1,960. From 2010 to 2014 average rent prices increased by 40.7 percent; Based on Table II‐35 (Ability to Pay), extremely low‐, very low‐, and low‐income households cannot afford the average rents in El Cerrito, but moderate‐income households can. Figure II-3 Average Rents El Cerrito (2006-2014) Source: RealFacts.com, July 2014. $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average Rent 1 Bedroom 1 Bath 2 Bedroom 2 Bath ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 44 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II‐32 shows the rental listing for recreational vehicle (RV) park space rents at an RV park in El Cerrito. There are very few vacancies. Table II-32 RV Park Space Rental Rates El Cerrito (2014) Name Total Spaces Average Rent Audiss RV Park 28 $625.00 for small spaces $695.00 for large spaces Source: Audiss RV Park, 2014. b. Home Prices Renting is generally more affordable than buying a home in El Cerrito. Table II‐33 shows home sale information for 2013 in El Cerrito. The median sale price increased significantly from 2012 to 2013, by 28.6 percent. In 2013 the median sale price was $565,000. Based on Table II‐35 (Ability to Pay), only above moderate‐income households can afford to purchase a home at the median sale price of $565,000 in El Cerrito. Table II-33 Home Sale Information El Cerrito (2013) Sales Percent Change from 2012 Median Sale Price Percent Change from 2012 Dollars per Square Foot El Cerrito 292 2.8% $565,000 28.6% $414 Source: DQNews.com, San Francisco Bay Area Home Sale Activity, 2013. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 45 of 187 Homes Prices in Surrounding Areas Figure II‐4 shows median home sale prices in El Cerrito and surrounding jurisdictions in 2013 according to DQNews. El Cerrito’s median home sale price was $565,000, compared to $216,491 in Richmond (directly northwest of El Cerrito) and $603,000 in Albany (directly south of El Cerrito). Figure II-4 Comparison of Median Home Sale Prices El Cerrito and Surrounding Jurisdictions (2013) Source: DQNews.com, July 2014. $565,000 $603,000 $752,375 $350,000 $350,000 $407,004 $315,000 $216,491 $225,000 $576,375 El Cerrito Albany Berkeley Emeryville Hercules Oakland Pinole Richmond San Pablo Walnut Creek ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 46 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Figure II‐5 shows the change in median home sale price in El Cerrito since June 2004. Although the median home sale price fluctuated between 2004 and 2013, it has been steadily increasing since December 2011 and was at $650,100 as of June 2014 according to Zillow.com. Figure II-5 Historical Median Home Sale Prices El Cerrito (2004-2013) Source: Zillow.com, July 2014. 9. Affordability a. Lower Income Households Overpaying for Housing As stated previously, there are five income categories typically used for comparative purposes based on the median countywide income: extremely low‐income (0‐30 percent of median income), very low‐income (30‐50 percent of median income), low‐income (50‐80 percent of median income), moderate‐income (80‐120 percent of median income), and above moderate‐income (120 percent or more of median income). One method of analyzing housing affordability for each income group is to compare the number and/or percent of housing units by cost to the number and/or percent of households by comparable income levels. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) establishes that a household is “cost‐burdened” overpaying for housing) if it spends more than 30 percent of gross income on housing‐related costs. The prevalence of overpayment varies significantly by income, tenure, household type, and household size. Those who pay 30 percent or more of their income on housing may have trouble affording other necessities. However, to truly evaluate housing affordability individual circumstances must be taken into account. These factors include other long‐term debt, mortgage interest rates, the number of household $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000 Home Sale Prices Trendline ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 47 of 187 members, and other large, ongoing expenses (such as medical bills). Since it is impossible to consider each household’s individual circumstances, the 30 percent rule‐of‐thumb provides a general measure of housing affordability for the average household. Table II‐34 shows overpayment by tenure. In 2010 36.9 percent of all El Cerrito households overpaid and 17.3 percent severely overpaid for housing. This is lower than the countywide overpayment rate of 45.0 percent and the Bay Area’s rate of 42.6 percent. Renters experienced particularly high overpayment rates, with 46.1 percent of renter households being cost‐burdened and 26.1 percent of renter households being severely cost‐burdened in El Cerrito. Owners in El Cerrito experienced overpayment far less (29.3 percent) than countywide (42.7 percent) and Bay Area owners (39.7 percent), but a higher proportion of renters in El Cerrito were cost‐burdened than countywide and in the Bay Area. Table II-34 Overpayment by Tenure El Cerrito, Contra Costa County, and Bay Area (2010) Total Units Total Households Paying 30%-50% Paying 50%+ Total overpaying Percent overpaying El Cerrito 9,865 1,893 1,750 3,643 36.9% Contra Costa County 364,085 90,241 73,445 163,686 45.0% Bay Area 2,489,089 567,249 492,793 1,060,042 42.6% Total Owner Units Total Paying 30-50% Paying 50%+ Total overpaying Percent overpaying El Cerrito 6,145 1,095 705 1,800 29.3% Contra Costa County 251,904 62,803 44,870 107,673 42.7% Bay Area 1,465,362 332,991 248,612 581,603 39.7% Total Renter Units Total Paying 30-50% Paying 50%+ Total overpaying Percent overpaying El Cerrito 3,997 798 1,045 1,843 46.1% Contra Costa County 123,460 27,438 28,575 56,013 45.4% Bay Area 1,142,661 234,258 244,181 478,439 41.9% Source: ABAG Pre-Approved Data Package, 2006-2010 CHAS. Table II‐35 shows affordability scenarios for very low‐, low‐, and moderate‐income households in Contra Costa County (including the City of El Cerrito) by the number of persons in the household. The table shows maximum affordable rents and maximum affordable purchase prices for homes. The affordable sales prices were calculated using household income limits published by the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), conventional financing terms, and assuming that households spend 30 percent of gross income on housing costs. Households earning the 2014 area median income for a family of four in El Cerrito ($93,500) could afford to spend up to $2,338 per month or $28,056 per year on rental housing without being considered “overpaying.” For renters this is a straightforward calculation but homeownership costs are less transparent. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 48 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 A household can typically qualify to purchase a home that is 2.5 to 3.0 times the annual income of that household, depending on the down payment, the level of other long‐term obligations (such as a car loan), and interest rates. In practice, the interaction of these factors allows some households to qualify for homes priced at more than three times their annual income, while other households may be limited to purchasing homes no more than two times their annual incomes. These factors—interest rates, insurance, and taxes—are held constant in the table below in order to determine maximum affordable rent and purchase price for households of each income category. Table II-35 Ability to Pay for Housing by Income Category Contra Costa County (2014) Extremely Low-Income Households at 30% of Median Family Income (MFI) Number of Persons 1 2 3 4 5 6 Income Level $19,650 $22,450 $25,250 $28,050 $30,300 $32,550 Max. Gross Rent $491 $561 $631 $701 $758 $814 Max. Purchase Price $79,371 $90,681 $101,991 $113,301 $122,389 $131,478 Very Low-Income Households at 50% of MFI Number of Persons 1 2 3 4 5 6 Income Level $32,750 $37,400 $42,100 $46,750 $50,500 $54,250 Max. Gross Rent $819 $935 $1,053 $1,169 $1,263 $1,356 Max. Purchase Price $132,286 $151,068 $170,053 $188,835 $203,982 $219,130 Low-Income Households at 70% of MFI For Sale and 60% of MFI for Rental Number of Persons 1 2 3 4 5 6 Income Level for Sale (70% MFI) $45,800 $52,350 $58,900 $65,450 $70,700 $75,900 Income Level for Rental (60% MFI) $39,250 $44,900 $50,500 $56,100 $60,600 $65,100 Max. Gross Rent $981 $1,123 $1,263 $1,403 $1,515 $1,628 Max. Purchase Price $184,998 $211,455 $237,912 $264,369 $285,575 $306,580 Median-Income Households at 100% of MFI Number of Persons 1 2 3 4 5 6 Income Level $65,450 $74,800 $84,150 $93,500 $101,000 $108,450 Max. Gross Rent $1,636 $1,870 $2,104 $2,338 $2,525 $2,711 Max. Purchase Price $264,369 $302,136 $339,903 $377,671 $407,965 $438,057 Moderate-Income Households at 120% of MFI Number of Persons 1 2 3 4 5 6 Income Level $78,550 $89,750 $101,000 $112,200 $121,200 $130,150 Max. Gross Rent $2,291 $2,618 $2,946 $3,273 $3,535 $3,796 Max. Purchase Price $370,164 $422,944 $475,959 $528,739 $571,151 $613,327 1Assumes that 30 percent of income (35 percent of moderate income) is available for either: rent, including utilities; or mortgage payment, taxes, mortgage insurance, and homeowners insurance. 2Assumes 96.5 percent loan at 4.5 percent annual interest rate and 30-year term; assumes taxes, mortgage insurance, and homeowners’ insurance account for 21 percent of total payments. 32014 State Area Median Income for Contra Costa County $93,500 Source: California Department of Housing and Community Development, 2014,http://www.hcd.ca.gov/hpd/hrc/rep/state/inc2k13.pdf; Mintier Harnish, 2014 ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element Housing Needs I November 2014 Page 49 of 187 10. Future Housing Needs a. Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) This section evaluates projected future housing needs for El Cerrito based on the RHNA adopted by Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) on July 18, 2013. ABAG, the Council of Governments (COG) representing the region, in cooperation with local jurisdictions, is responsible for allocating the region’s projected new housing demand in each jurisdiction. The demand represents the number of additional units needed to accommodate the anticipated growth in the number of households, to replace expected demolitions and conversions of housing units to non‐residential uses, and to allow for a future vacancy rate conducive to a healthy functioning housing market. This process is known as the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) and the goals are referred to as the RHNA goals or the “regional share” goals for new housing construction. The allocation takes into account factors such as employment opportunities, market demand for housing, availability of suitable sites and public facilities, community patterns, types and tenure of housing needs and others. The allocation is divided into four income categories: Very Low‐Income – 0 to 50 percent of the median income Low‐Income – 51 to 80 percent of the median income Moderate‐Income – 81 to 120 percent of the median income Above Moderate‐Income – more than 120 percent of the median income In determining a jurisdiction’s share of new housing needs by income category, the allocation is adjusted to avoid an over‐concentration of lower‐income households in one jurisdiction. In addition to the allocation in the four income categories, recent legislation requires cities to consider the needs of extremely low‐income households earning 30 percent or less of the median income. The RHNA planning period (January 1, 2014 to October 31, 2022) is different from the Housing Element planning period of January 31, 2015 to January 31, 2023. The 2014‐2022 RHNA, prepared by ABAG, assigns El Cerrito a need for 398 housing units, including 100 very low‐income units, 63 low‐income units, 69 moderate‐income units, and 166 above moderate‐income units. State law also requires jurisdictions to estimate future housing needs for extremely low‐income households. The law allows local agencies and jurisdictions to assume that the need for extremely low‐income households is 50 percent of the very low‐ income household need. This estimate is shown in the table below. ---PAGE BREAK--- Draft 2015‐2023 Housing Element City of El Cerrito Page 50 of 187 Housing NeedsI November 2014 Table II-36 Regional Housing Needs Allocation El Cerrito (2014-2022) Income Level Dwelling Units Percent of Total Extremely Low-Income 50 12.6% Very Low-Income 50 12.6% Low-Income 63 15.8% Moderate-Income 69 17.3% Above Moderate-Income 166 41.7% Total 398 100% Source: ABAG (2015-2023) Regional Housing Needs Determination.