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AGENDA BILL Agenda Item No. 7(B) Date: July 16, 2013 To: El Cerrito City Council From: Karen Pinkos, Assistant City Manager Subject: Results of Survey by Godbe Research on Development of Future City Facilities ACTION REQUESTED Receive a presentation from Godbe Research on the results of their telephone survey of El Cerrito residents to ascertain voter opinions related to the potential funding for future City facilities (library, public safety building and recreational facilities) and discuss and provide comments and feedback. BACKGROUND The City’s Strategic Plan identifies “Develop and Rehabilitate Public Facilities as Community Focal Points” as a primary goal. The strategies outlined for this goal include continuing to assess facilities to prioritize and strategize investment library, public safety building, senior center, community center). In the FY 2013-14 Adopted Budget, no funds are identified in the Capital Improvement Program (CIP) for investment in either rehabilitating or building new library, public safety or recreational facilities. Current economic conditions, the loss of the Redevelopment Agency, and lack of available grant funding are all factors in the inability to fund new or renovated buildings. Because no new revenue streams have been identified nor projected, City staff has concluded that it appears the best method for funding for new public facilities must ultimately rely on new revenue generated by a measure approved by the voters of El Cerrito. To that end, in May of this year, City staff engaged Godbe Research to perform a statistically valid survey related to potential future revenue measures. Although the economy appears to be in a fragile recovery, staff feels it is important to continue to survey the voters to determine the priorities for these unfunded projects in case there is a willingness to go forward on a future revenue measure, and to leave ample time (ideally at least one to two years) in order to run an adequate public education program similar to the City’s previous successful revenue measures. Godbe Research was originally selected as the City’s polling and research firm as a result of a competitive procurement process. Since that time, they have assisted the City in survey research related to the Utility Users Tax, Landscape and Lighting Assessment District, communication methods, the Senior Center, capital improvement programs, the street improvement program Measure A, and the sales tax Measure R. Godbe has also provided valuable assistance with determining timing of potential measures as well as development of ballot phrasing and language. Tonight they will present the key findings from their research and be prepared to answer questions. ---PAGE BREAK--- Agenda Item No. 7(8) ANALYSIS As the results of the survey indicate, there appears to be the necessary two-thirds support for a new library building, as well as support for several elements of recreational/community center facilities that could be harmonious with a library. Staff has initiated the update of the Needs Assessment for the El Cerrito Library, and will incorporate the survey data within this process. Should the City Council concur that staff should pursue development of a new library facility, staff will consider the next steps in this process. These include, but are not limited to, identification of funding for necessary studies and plans and ultimately design and construction; engagement of an architectural firm to assist with massing studies, elevations and ultimately design; a second, more targeted polling survey (similar to the approach on the 2008 Measure possible site studies seismic and hazardous materials) and environmental review; and engagement of a consultant for development of a public information strategy. The survey results also indicate that November 2016 is the likely best ~hoice for a ballot measure, particularly since a Presidential election always results in the highest voter turnout. In order to achieve that date, a general timeline could be the following: 2013-2014 • Update Needs Assessment • Request For Proposals for architectural services • Site for building identified and secured 2015 • Conceptual design of building • Site studies and Environmental Review • Financing Plan developed • Public outreach efforts begin 2016 • Public information continues • Refined voter survey • City Council places measure on the ballot After consideration of the survey results, City Council feedback, the Needs Assessment update, and budget analysis, staff would then expect to return to Council later this year with recommendations for completion of the identified tasks necessary to move forward with a ballot measure. Reviewed by: Scott Hanin, City Manager Attachments: 1. Godbe Research presentation Page2 ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito: 2013 Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey July 2013 ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 2 July 2013 Overview and Research Objectives The City of El Cerrito commissioned Godbe Research to conduct a survey of local voters with the following research objectives: Assess potential voter support for either a public safety, library or community and senior center bond measure; Determine the tax threshold for a bond measure; Prioritize projects and programs to be funded with the proceeds; Test the influence of supporting and opposing arguments on potential voter support; Test an alternative sales tax approach; and Identify any differences in voter support due to demographic and/or voter behavioral characteristics. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 3 July 2013 Methodology Overview Data Collection Telephone Interviewing Universe 12,986 registered likely November 2016 voters in the City of El Cerrito, with sub- samples of likely November 2014 voters, and likely June 2016/2014 voters. Fielding Dates May 29 through June 10, 2013 Interview Length 18.75 minutes Sample Size 504 Likely November 2016 voters 399 Likely November 2014 voters 308 Likely June 2016/2014 voters Margin of Error ± 4.3% Likely November 2016 voters ± 4.8% Likely November 2014 voters ± 5.5% Likely June 2016/2014 voters Notes: A-The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely voters in the City of El Cerrito in terms of their gender, age, and political party type. B-Split sampled questions have higher error rates. ---PAGE BREAK--- Key Findings ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 5 July 2013 Uninformed Support: Public Safety Bond In the future, voters in El Cerrito may be asked to vote on local ballot measures. Let me read you the description of one of these potential measures: To protect the safety of El Cerrito residents and maintain rapid emergency response times by replacing the aging fire and police station with a new building that will: • accommodate the firefighters and police officers needed to protect and patrol neighborhoods; • provide firefighters and police space for modern equipment and technology; and • be designed survive a major earthquake; shall the City of El Cerrito issue $25 million dollars in bonds with independent oversight and all funds staying local? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 32.9% 34.5% 24.3% 21.3% 18.9% 19.7% 17.2% 19.0% 6.7% 5.5% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA As a test of uninformed support, a split sample of voters in the City of El Cerrito were read only a ballot question that summarized the main features of a $25 million bond measure designed to benefit public safety. In response, likely November 2014 and likely November 2016 voters indicated similar levels of support for the measure, with total support at 55.8% and 57.2%, respectively. In comparison, total opposition was at 38.7% for likely November 2014 voters and 36.1% for likely November 2016 voters, with the remaining undecided (DK/NA). These results indicate that there is a base of support, but it falls short of the two-thirds requirement, especially when the margin of error is accounted for (4.8% November 2014 and 4.3% November 2016). ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 6 July 2013 Uninformed Support: Library Bond To meet educational, informational, and recreational needs of El Cerrito by replacing the aging library with a modern 21st century library and learning center, that includes: • Expanded space for book and material collections; • Dedicated space for children and teens, a homework center, public access computers, family activities, and quiet reading; • A safe, energy efficient library that meets earthquake and fire codes; shall El Cerrito issue $25 million dollars in bonds, with independent oversight and all funds staying local? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 49.1% 45.1% 19.5% 19.3% 9.3% 10.2% 12.8% 14.0% 9.3% 11.4% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA As a test of uninformed support for a bond measure to replace the aging current library, voters in the City were read only a ballot question that summarized the main features of a $25 million bond measure. Those voters identified as likely November 2014 voters indicated a lower level of support for the measure than the likely November 2016 voters, with total support at 64.4% and 68.6%, respectively. Total opposition was at 24.2% for likely November 2014 voters and 22.1% for likely November 2016 voters. Approximately one in ten voters was undecided (DK/NA) for each universe. These results show that there is a base of support, but when the margin of error is accounted for (4.8% November 2012 and 4.3% November 2016), both universes fall short of the necessary two-thirds threshold.. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 7 July 2013 Uninformed Support: Community and Senior Centers and Clubhouses Bond To meet recreational needs of El Cerrito residents by replacing or modernizing the aging community center, senior center and park clubhouses including: • Program and spaces for arts, crafts, music, dance, wellness, parties, festivals, special events and other activities; • Computer labs; • Improved facilities for children, seniors and disabled residents; • Safe, energy efficient facilities that meet earthquake and fire codes; shall El Cerrito issue $25 million dollars in bonds, with independent oversight and all funds staying local? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 33.0% 32.6% 23.3% 27.2% 7.5% 6.8% 17.1% 17.4% 19.2% 16.0% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA For the test of uninformed support for a bond measure to fund replacing or modernizing the aging community center, senior center and park clubhouses, voters were read only a ballot question that summarized the main features of a $25 million bond measure. For this ballot test, those identified as likely November 2014 voters indicated higher support for the measure over likely November 2016 voters, with total support at 59.8% and 56.3%, respectively. Total opposition was at 24.2% for November 2014 and 24.6% for likely November 2016 voters, with the remaining undecided (DK/NA). These results indicate that there is a base of support, but when the margin of error is accounted for (4.8% November 2012 and 4.3% November 2016), support falls short of the two-thirds requirement. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 8 July 2013 Support for Different Rates 43.1% 47.5% 53.4% 61.4% 44.7% 48.9% 54.6% 63.0% 40% 67% $71 $64 $57 $50 November 2014 November 2016 ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 9 July 2013 Features of the Measure: Public Safety Measure Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = “Somewhat More Likely” = “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = and “Much Less Likely” = 0 1 2 Space for interviewing suspects, attorney client mtgs. Fire and police bldg. with space for holding cells Fire and police bldg. with enough locker room space Gender specific bathrooms, locker rooms etc. Fire and police bldg. with adequate space for evidence Fire and police bldg. flexible to adapt to new technology Safe location to transfer prisoners to/from police cars Space for handling and storing DNA and digital evidence Fire and police bldg. that meets current building codes Fire and police bldg. that meets earthquake standards 0.2 0.18 0.3 0.45 0.48 0.54 0.58 0.54 0.62 0.75 0.24 0.26 0.37 0.49 0.58 0.58 0.63 0.65 0.68 0.77 November 2014 November 2016 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Respondents were then presented with 10 potential public safety projects and facilities-related benefits, and asked whether they would be more or less likely to vote for the measure upon hearing each. None of these programs, made the voters “somewhat more likely” to support the measure (mean score of 1.0 or higher). However, the feature “Fire and police bldg. that meets earthquake standards” made at least 62.4% of the likely November 2016 voters somewhat more likely to vote for the measure. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 10 July 2013 Features of the Measure: Library Measure Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = “Somewhat More Likely” = “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = and “Much Less Likely” = -2 -1 0 1 2 Space for a cafe and coffee bar Quiet adult reading areas Enclosed multipurpose meeting space for public use Comfortable public seating for reading Quiet study rooms Separate teen area Flexible community meeting space for special programs Homework center for students Adequate parking Space for larger book and media collections Space for family programs, activities, and classes New, 21st century library Space for literacy tutoring programs Space for public access computers and a computer lab Improve access for seniors and disabled residents Children's area with parent/child reading space Safe, energy-efficient, meets earthquake & fire codes 0.05 0.43 0.48 0.58 0.54 0.61 0.7 0.67 0.69 0.76 0.77 0.87 0.89 0.92 0.9 0.86 0.99 -0.04 0.47 0.5 0.54 0.58 0.6 0.65 0.68 0.7 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 November 2014 November 2016 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely The next sample of voters were then presented with 17 potential features and benefits for the library bond measure. Similar to the public safety measure results, none of these programs made the voters “somewhat more likely” to support the measure (mean score of 1.0 or higher). However, the features “Space for public access and a computer lab” and “Safe, energy-efficient, meets earthquake & fire codes” made at least 70% of the likely November 2016 voters somewhat more likely to vote for the measure. Somewhat Less Likely Much Less Likely ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 11 July 2013 Features of the Measure: Community and Senior Centers and Clubhouses Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = “Somewhat More Likely” = “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = and “Much Less Likely” = 0 1 2 Space for a quiet room Commercial kitchen 7Space for bingo, card, and game rooms Room for a cafe with coffee, snacks and soft drinks Community center including a gymnasium Garden area with barbeque section and patio seating Adequate parking Space for performances Space for music and dance classes Fine art, pottery and crafts studios Space for meeting rooms and classrooms Computer learning center New senior center with two MP rooms New senior center w/ for educ. courses New senior center with a wellness and fitness studio New comm. ctr. and park clubhouses w/ MP rooms 0.22 0.35 0.34 0.48 0.5 0.69 0.61 0.8 0.84 0.81 0.81 0.77 0.92 0.94 0.94 1 0.23 0.25 0.35 0.37 0.44 0.56 0.59 0.65 0.66 0.71 0.72 0.78 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.91 November 2014 November 2016 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely When presented with 16 potential features for the community and senior centers bond measure, none of these programs made the voters “somewhat more likely” to support the measure (mean score of 1.0 or higher). However, the features “New senior center with a wellness and fitness studio,” “New senior center with two MP rooms,” “New senior center w/ for educ. courses” and “New comm. ctr. and park clubhouses w/ MP rooms” made at least 65% of the likely November 2016 voters somewhat more likely to vote for the measure. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 12 July 2013 Influence of Supporting Statements: Overall Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = “Somewhat More Likely” = “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 Over last 10 years, State has taken >$15 million from EC Citizen oversight, mandatory financial audits Measure will maintain an excellent quality of life New facilities designed and built to be flexible Historic low interest rates and construction costs Both residents and businesses will pay the tax New facilities will use green building materials Give EC local control over local funds for local needs 0.73 1 0.99 1 1.02 1.06 1.08 1.11 0.72 0.97 0.98 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.08 November 2014 November 2016 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Responses to the supporting arguments were coded and averaged such that a higher score indicated a message made voters more likely to vote yes. Six of the eight arguments made likely November 2016 voters “somewhat more likely” to support the measure (mean scores higher than 1.0). Four of the statements (“Give EC local control over local funds for local needs,” “Both residents and businesses will pay the tax,” “Historic low interest rates and construction costs,” and “New facilities will use green building materials”) each made at least 60% of the voters “Somewhat more likely” to support the measure. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 13 July 2013 Influence of Supporting Statements: Public Safety Measure Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = “Somewhat More Likely” = “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 Current police station not big enough to support EC PD Police facility doesn't have adequate space for evidence EC PD crime prevention efforts will be more effective Maintain emergency response times for police and fire Make sure fire & police bldg. operational in emergency 0.89 0.97 0.96 1.06 1.1 0.92 0.97 1.01 1.04 1.06 November 2014 November 2016 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Two of the five arguments made likely November 2016 voters “somewhat more likely” to support the public safety measure (with mean scores higher than 1.0). All but one of the statements (“Current police station not big enough to support EC PD”) made at least 60% of the voters “Somewhat more likely” to support the measure. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 14 July 2013 Influence of Supporting Statements: Library Measure Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = “Somewhat More Likely” = “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 Programs for children/teens, including homework help New library will have most up to date computer tech. Old library doesn't meet national stds. for books, etc. New library offer after-school/summer pgms. for youth New library will be larger than the current library 1.04 1.07 1.14 1.19 1.17 1.04 1.07 1.08 1.12 1.13 November 2014 November 2016 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely For the library measure, all of the five arguments made likely November 2016 voters “somewhat more likely” to support the measure (with mean scores higher than 1.0). Two of the statements (“New library will be larger than the current library” and “New library will offer after-school/summer pgms. for youth”) each made at least 70% of the voters “Somewhat more likely” to support the measure. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 15 July 2013 Influence of Supporting Statements: Community and Senior Centers and Clubhouses Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = “Somewhat More Likely” = “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 Educational and recreational activities for seniors Spaces for recreation, health, and wellness activities Create more programs for older and younger adults Help pay for operation by generating rental revenue Offer after-school and summer programs for youth 1.15 1.11 1.1 1.07 1.23 1.07 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.21 November 2014 November 2016 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely All of the of the five statements in support of the community and senior centers and clubhouses made likely November 2016 voters “somewhat more likely” to support the measure (with mean scores higher than 1.0). In addition, each of the arguments made at least 60% of the voters “Somewhat more likely” to support the measure. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 16 July 2013 Potential Opposition Statements: All Measures Combined Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = “Somewhat More Likely” = “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 Resources on internet, don't need a new library Our community is not growing Police don't need a new building Wouldn't need measure if hadn't wasted our tax $ Economic recovery is very fragile Public employee salaries, benefits, etc. out of control Hurts seniors and those on fixed incomes 0.34 0.52 0.48 0.62 0.64 0.67 0.81 0.35 0.54 0.56 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.82 November 2014 November 2016 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Responses to the potential opposition arguments were coded and averaged such that a higher score indicated an argument made voters more likely to vote no. None of the arguments reached the level of making the voter “Somewhat more likely” to vote no (mean score of 1.0 or higher). However, the top scoring statement, “Hurts seniors and those on fixed incomes,” made at least 50% of the respondents somewhat more likely to oppose the measure. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 17 July 2013 Informed Support: Public Safety Bond In the future, voters in El Cerrito may be asked to vote on local ballot measures. Let me read you the description of one of these potential measures: To protect the safety of El Cerrito residents and maintain rapid emergency response times by replacing the aging fire and police station with a new building that will: • accommodate the firefighters and police officers needed to protect and patrol neighborhoods; • provide firefighters and police space for modern equipment and technology; and • be designed survive a major earthquake; shall the City of El Cerrito issue $25 million dollars in bonds with independent oversight and all funds staying local? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 33.3% 32.7% 23.6% 23.1% 19.0% 16.6% 21.2% 23.8% 3.0% 3.8% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA After simulated public information, total support for a $25 million dollar public safety bond measure among likely November 2014 voters was at 55.8% (32.7% “definitely yes” and 23.1% “probably yes”) and likely November 2016 voters was at 56.9 (33.3% “definitely yes” and 23.6% “probably yes”). The results of each election cycle are statistically unchanged from support in the initial ballot test. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 18 July 2013 Informed Support: Library Bond To meet educational, informational, and recreational needs of El Cerrito by replacing the aging library with a modern 21st century library and learning center, that includes: • Expanded space for book and material collections; • Dedicated space for children and teens, a homework center, public access computers, family activities, and quiet reading; • A safe, energy efficient library that meets earthquake and fire codes; shall El Cerrito issue $25 million dollars in bonds, with independent oversight and all funds staying local? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 41.8% 42.4% 25.5% 20.4% 8.3% 9.0% 19.6% 22.5% 4.7% 5.8% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA Among likely November 2014 voters and likely November 2016 voters, total informed support for the $25 million dollar library bond measure was at 62.8% (42.4% “definitely yes” and 20.4% “probably yes”) and 67.3% (41.8% “definitely yes” and 25.5% “probably yes”), respectively. The final ballot test results are statistically unchanged from support in the initial ballot test. On the other hand, total opposition increased for both election cycles. Total opposition for the November 2014 election cycle increased from 24.2% to 31.4%, and increased from 22.1% to 28.0% for the November 2016 election cycle, largely due to the decrease in undecided voters. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 19 July 2013 Informed Support: Community and Senior Centers and Clubhouses Bond To meet recreational needs of El Cerrito residents by replacing or modernizing the aging community center, senior center and park clubhouses including: • Program and spaces for arts, crafts, music, dance, wellness, parties, festivals, special events and other activities; • Computer labs; • Improved facilities for children, seniors and disabled residents; • Safe, energy efficient facilities that meet earthquake and fire codes; shall El Cerrito issue $25 million dollars in bonds, with independent oversight and all funds staying local? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 37.2% 35.8% 26.0% 24.9% 12.9% 12.1% 18.6% 20.0% 5.4% 7.2% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA The final informed support for the community and senior centers and clubhouses bond measure ballot test shows total support for the proposed measure among likely November 2016 increased from 56.3% in the initial ballot test to 63.1% in the final ballot test. For the November 2016 election cycle, total opposition also increased from 24.6% to 31.4%, and DK/NA responses decreased to 5.4% in the second ballot test from 19.2% in the initial ballot test. The November 2014 results saw a similar increase in total opposition (24.2% initial ballot test vs. 32.1% final ballot test) along with a significant decrease in DK/NA response (16.0% initial ballot test vs. 7.2% final ballot test). ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 20 July 2013 Support for Alternative Sales Tax Measure: Public Safety To protect the safety of El Cerrito residents and maintain rapid emergency response times by replacing the aging fire and police station with a new building to: • accommodate the firefighters and police officers needed to protect and patrol neighborhoods; • provide firefighters and police space for modern equipment and technology; and • be designed survive a major earthquake; shall El Cerrito extend the existing local sales tax, for twenty years, with citizens' oversight, annual independent audits, and all funds staying local, none to Sacramento? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 22.5% 21.8% 26.4% 25.0% 16.1% 15.6% 27.3% 28.8% 7.8% 8.7% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA In the last section of the survey, respondents were asked if they would support a sales tax measure in place of the earlier proposed bond measure. Total support for the alternative sales tax measure to fund public safety projects and programs was similar between the November 2014 and November 2016 elections cycles. However, support for a sales tax measure was significantly lower than the previously proposed bond measure, with a slight increase in DK/NA response. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 21 July 2013 Support for Alternative Sales Tax Measure: Library To meet educational, informational, and recreational needs of El Cerrito by replacing the aging library with a 21st century library and learning center, including: • Expanded space for book and material collections; • Dedicated space for children and teens, a homework center, public access computers, family activities, and quiet reading; • A safe, energy efficient library that meets earthquake and fire codes; shall El Cerrito extend the existing local sales tax, for twenty years, with citizens' oversight, annual independent audits, and all funds staying local, none to Sacramento? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 37.1% 33.1% 22.3% 27.3% 15.9% 15.2% 17.3% 15.4% 7.4% 9.1% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA Total support and opposition for the alternative sales tax measure to fund library projects and programs was statistically the same for the November 2014 and 2016 election cycles. While total support and opposition levels were the same for the bond measure versus the sales tax alternative in the November 2014 election cycle, there was a sizable drop in support from the bond measure to the alternative sales tax measure for the 2016 election. ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 22 July 2013 Support for Alternative Sales Tax Measure: Community and Senior Centers and Clubhouse To meet recreational needs of El Cerrito residents by replacing or modernizing the aging community center, senior center and park clubhouses including: • Program and spaces for arts, crafts, music, dance, wellness, parties, festivals, special events and other activities; • Computer labs; • Improved facilities for children, seniors and disabled residents; • Safe, energy efficient facilities that meet earthquake and fire codes; shall El Cerrito extend the existing local sales tax, for twenty years, with citizens' oversight, annual independent audits, and all funds staying local, none to Sacramento? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2016 November 2014 34.4% 32.8% 24.2% 19.5% 11.2% 12.6% 21.7% 26.0% 8.6% 9.2% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA Total support and opposition for the alternative sales tax measure to fund community and senior centers and clubhouse projects and programs in the November 2016 election cycle was higher than the November 2014 election cycle. However, there was a sizable drop in support from the bond measure to the alternative sales tax measure for both November 2014 and 2016 election cycles. ---PAGE BREAK--- Summary and Recommendations ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 24 July 2013 Summary and Recommendations The survey revealed a numerical base of voter support for a library bond measure in the November 2016 election universe, and Godbe Research recommends that the City of El Cerrito begin the process of preparing for a bond measure in a future election. While support for the library bond measure is higher in the November 2016 election, the difference between November 2016 and November 2014 is not statistically significant. While there is a consistent numerical advantage for the library bond measure when compared with the public safety and community/senior centers measures, it is not possible to say that this is statistically significant given the split sample methodology. The survey results indicate potential voter support for an affordable bond measure for municipal facilities. Specifically, support for the bond measure was 63% when likely November 2016 voters were provided with information on the associated annual property tax rate of $50 per $100,000 in assessed value and 61% among likely November 2014 voters at the same rate. The survey suggests that there is no benefit in a sales tax approach when compared to a general obligation bond measure. The survey results indicate the City of El Cerrito should: Begin the detailed planning necessary to refine a library project including costs. Begin a strategic community outreach and public information effort to support the planning process and demonstrate the need for the measure. Be prepared to head off voter concerns and misperceptions with respect to the impact on seniors, and public sector salaries and benefits. ---PAGE BREAK--- www.godberesearch.com Northern California and Corporate Offices 1660 South Amphlett Boulevard, Suite 205 San Mateo, CA 94402 Southern California Office 4695 MacArthur Court, 11th Floor Newport Beach, CA 92660 Nevada Office 59 Damonte Ranch Parkway, Suite B309 Reno, NV 89521 Pacific Northwest Office 601 108th Avenue NE, Suite 1900 Bellevue, WA 98004