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AGENDA BILL Agenda Item No. 7(A) Date: February 2, 2015 To: El Cerrito City Council From: Karen Pinkos, Assistant City Manager Subject: Agreement with Godbe Research to perform voter research on a future revenue measure for a library facility ACTION REQUESTED Adopt a resolution authorizing the City Manager to enter into an agreement with Godbe Research to undertake a voter survey to ascertain voter opinions related to a future revenue measure to fund a new library facility as well as support for several elements of recreational/community center facilities that could be harmonious with a library. BACKGROUND/ANALYSIS The City’s Strategic Plan identifies “Develop and Rehabilitate Public Facilities as Community Focal Points” as a primary goal. The strategies outlined for this goal include continuing to assess facilities to prioritize and strategize investment library, public safety building, senior center, community center). In May 2013, City staff engaged Godbe Research to perform a statistically valid survey related to potential future revenue measures. The results of the survey indicated that there was broad voter support for a new library building, as well as support for several elements of recreational/community center facilities that could be harmonious with a library. On July 16, 2013, staff received consensus from the City Council to pursue planning for a new library building, including the steps necessary to consider a ballot measure to fund the facility in November 2016. In March 2014, the Council received the results from the update to the 2006 Needs Assessment for the El Cerrito Library as part of the first phase of the planning process. One of the next steps for the development of the library facility, along with site selection and initiating the architectural/design process, is developing the financing plan. To that end, staff believes that conducting a survey of El Cerrito voters that is focused on the funding mechanisms as well as the desired physical elements for the building would assist the City in determining the best options for gaining public financial support for the facility. In previous surveys, Godbe Research asked numerous questions about the development of a library facility, and these prior efforts would be built upon within this new survey to further refine the community’s feedback. Godbe Research was originally selected as the City’s polling and research firm as a result of a competitive procurement process. Since that time, they have assisted the City in survey research related to the Utility Users Tax, Landscape and Lighting Assessment ---PAGE BREAK--- Agenda Item No. 7(A) District, communication methods, City facilities, capital improvement programs, the street improvement program Measure A, and the sales tax MeasureR. Godbe has also provided valuable assistance with determining timing of potential measures as well as development of ballot phrasing and language. Staff has been consistently very happy with the firm's research and responsiveness and requests City Council authorization to sole source this engagement. STRATEGIC PLAN CONSIDERATIONS Adoption of the proposed amendment would help fulfill Goal D: Develop and Rehabilitate Public Facilities as Community Focal Points as detailed in the City of El Cerrito Strategic Plan; as well as Goal B: Achieve Long-term Financial Sustainability and Goal C: Deepen a Sense of Place and Community Identity. Specifically, adoption of the proposed Ordinance would contribute to achieving the following strategies: • Continue the facilities assessment to prioritize and strategize investment library, public safety building, senior center, community center). • Develop a financial plan to address ongoing and deferred maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. • IdentifY, promote, and/or develop entertainment, recreational, and leisure activities for people of all ages and demographics. FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS Based on the proposal included as Attachment 2, staff believes the cost of the research is in line with similar research performed in the past and comparable to similar research projects undertaken elsewhere. Godbe has kept their fees roughly flat for many years. Additional costs are now necessary due to the need to collect data with other methods in addition to traditional phone surveys. Therefore, staff is recommending approval of a base appropriation of $27,730, plus a 10% contingency making a not-to-exceed amount of $30,503, which will be paid from unrestricted General Fund reserves, should actual expenses exceed the approved annual appropriation amount. Reviewed by: Scott Hanin, City Manager Attachments: 1. Accompanying Resolution 2. Proposal Page 2 ---PAGE BREAK--- Agenda Item No. 7(A) Attachment 1 RESOLUTION NO. 2015-XX RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF EL CERRITO AUTHORIZING THE CITY MANAGER TO ENTER INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH GODBE RESEARCH TO UNDERTAKE A VOTER SURVEY TO ASCERTAIN VOTER OPINIONS RELATED TO A FUTURE REVENUE MEASURE TO FUND A NEW LIBRARY FACILITY WHEREAS, the City has expressed interest in further studying a future ballot initiative to fund a new library facility; and WHEREAS, the City had previously selected Godbe Research through a very competitive proposal process; and WHEREAS, City staff has been very happy with the work products, responsiveness and professionalism of Godbe Research; and WHEREAS, the City Manager has requested that a proposal for future research be obtained from Godbe Research in order to provide the City Council with more information related to voter priorities and preferences for financing a new library facility; and WHEREAS, Godbe Research has submitted such a proposal and City staff has recommended City Council approval. NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of El Cerrito authorizes the City Manager to enter into an agreement with Godbe Research to provide survey research related to a future ballot measure and appropriates $30,503from the General Fund for this project. I CERTIFY that at the regular meeting on February 3, 2015, the El Cerrito City Council passed this resolution by the following vote: AYES: COUNCILMEMBERS NOES: COUNCILMEMBERS ABSENT: COUNCILMEMBERS IN WITNESS of this action, I sign this document and affix the corporate seal of the City of El Cerrito on February___ , 2015. Cheryl Morse, City Clerk APPROVED: Mark Friedman, Mayor ---PAGE BREAK--- PROPOSAL TO CONDUCT A VOTER SURVEY Presented to the City of El Cerrito January 27, 2015 Agenda Item No. 7(A) Attachment 2 ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Godbe Research 1 PROPOSED WORK PLAN Godbe Research believes that the success of any opinion research project depends on recognizing the individual and unique needs of each of our clients. To this end, Godbe Research has crafted the following proposal for the City of El Cerrito (El Cerrito or City) to illustrate the types of considerations that go into each of our voter research studies. This proposal is designed to become an exhibit or attachment to the City’s standard agreement, if the project is approved by the City. Research Objectives Before beginning any research project, Godbe Research spends significant time reviewing the client’s research objectives to choose the most appropriate research design. Based on information supplied by El Cerrito, Godbe Research understands that there are several key research objectives, the most important of which is to evaluate voter opinions and attitudes on a variety of topics and issues in the City, including a potential future revenue measure. Additional research objectives will be refined between Godbe Research and El Cerrito at the project kick-off meeting and as the project unfolds. Scope of Work To accomplish the research objectives of the City of El Cerrito for the voter survey, Godbe Research recommends a hybrid Internet and telephone survey methodology of voters. This hybrid survey approach is designed to balance declining response rates to traditional telephone surveys among voters age 18 to 49 by leveraging technologies that are preferred by certain demographic groups. Based on this recommended approach, below is a list of specific services for the survey of El Cerrito voters: ¾ Conducting an in-person kick-off meeting with the City of El Cerrito and other project the City wishes to include in the process, as well as additional meetings, conference calls, and correspondence to discuss the research objectives and other aspects of the voter survey in detail. ¾ Reviewing El Cerrito resident and voter demographics, previously conducted and related opinion research, and other information that will help to inform and support this current voter survey process. ¾ Designing and refining a survey instrument of approximately 15 to 18-minutes in length so that it addresses the research objectives of the City of San El Cerrito for the voter survey. This is done through an iterative process between Godbe Research and City. The survey will be designed to be formatted for both Internet and telephone survey modalities as a ‘hybrid survey’ and both versions of the survey will be identical. ¾ Programming, refining, and testing the Internet version of the survey instrument using our Internet survey software package. This will be done by our team of IT and programming experts. ¾ CATI programming the telephone version of the survey instrument for efficient and accurate data collection, and training telephone interviewing personnel on the questionnaire and interviewing protocol. For our telephone interviewing projects, Godbe Research uses only live interviewers, who have been intensively trained on the survey questionnaire, and who are located in the western United States. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Godbe Research 2 ¾ Pre-testing the survey instrument in both modalities to ensure that the questions and response codes are understandable to respondents, and to ensure that the survey length coincides with the budgeted survey length for the project. ¾ Developing a recruitment email for the Internet version of the survey and working with the City to send recruitment emails to voters with known email addresses in the voter file. Based on the City’s preference and communications policies, we can develop the recruitment email and process to be completed by our ‘white listed’ provider, or the City can send recruitment emails internally where respondents are re-directed to our web site to take the survey. Finally, we can also match any internal email lists the City has (e.g. park and recreation lists, City communications lists) to the voter file, so that we can include additional voters that do not have email addresses in the State Voter File. ¾ Development of a stratified and clustered listed sample of El Cerrito voters appropriate to the research objectives of this current survey. The listed sample will be primarily constructed using email addresses from the voter file, as the Internet modality will be conducted first in the hybrid survey process. Once we have developed the Internet sample, the rest of the sample will be de-duplicated by matching names, addresses, and phone numbers from Internet survey respondents to those in the voter file. We will then remove any voter from the telephone survey sample who previously completed the survey via the Internet. Further, we will ask survey respondents in the telephone sample if they have already completed the survey via the Internet and will remove those voters from the survey process through a screening question. For review, there are a total of approximately 13,560 total voters in the City of El Cerrito for which we have email addresses for approximately 3,129 voters or about 23% of the total voting electorate in the City. Further, we have also identified that there are a total of approximately 12,041 likely November 2016 voters for which we have 2,710 email addresses or 23% coverage. As the Presidential general election cycle, November 2016 represents the largest turnout election cycle in any four-year cycle. ¾ Conducting 15 to 18-minute Internet and telephone interviews with approximately 400 (n=400) total El Cerrito voters according to a strict interviewing protocol and our approved sampling design. A sample size of 400 would provide for a margin of error of no greater than at the 95% confidence level, when looking at all voters in the City. Within the overall sample size, and based on the number of voter email addresses and telephone numbers in the voter file, we would expect to collect approximately 100 to 200 interviews via the Internet and approximately 200 to 300 interviews via telephone. ¾ Merging the Internet and telephone data files, as well as processing and weighting the data to adjust for population distribution and strategic oversampling, as needed. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Godbe Research 3 ¾ Developing a topline report of aggregate findings for the City of El Cerrito. We will also meet with the City to review the topline/aggregate survey results. This will help our more detailed analysis and reporting to be of maximum value to the City. ¾ Analyzing the survey results and preparing a report of findings conclusions, and recommendations for the City (draft and final formats), which directly addresses the research objectives outlined for the voter survey. Our reports typically include sections for key findings and conclusions, a methodology discussion, analysis of the questions and topics in narrative and graphical format, as well as a copy of the survey questionnaire and a complete set of crosstabulations for all survey questions. ¾ Presenting the results and recommendations from the voter survey to City of El Cerrito staff, administration, and Council, and potentially other stakeholders groups. The costs presented later in this scope of work document are valid for two presentations. ¾ Post-survey consulting on the results and recommendations from the voter survey as needed by the City of El Cerrito. ---PAGE BREAK--- City of El Cerrito Godbe Research 4 PROPOSED PROJECT COSTS Godbe Research takes great pride in delivering reliable and practical opinion research projects ‘on time and on budget’. In doing so, we prefer to provide a firm, fixed fee format for our proposals. This is because we do not believe in assigning arbitrary hours and rarely do projects (even highly similar in nature) take the same amount of time or resources. Thus, we feel that firm and fixed-fee pricing represents the best value to our clients. Based on our understanding of the needs of the City of El Cerrito for this specific voter survey, Godbe Research has provided costs to conduct a 15 to 18-minute survey comprised of 400 (n=400) total El Cerrito voters, using a hybrid Internet and telephone survey methodology. Using the other clients as a guide, we would expect to be able to collect approximately 25% to 40% of interviews via the Internet modality and approximately 60% to 75% of interviews using the telephone modality, with the Internet portion of the survey collecting the majority of interviews with voters ages 18 to 49 and the telephone portion of the survey collecting the majority of interviews with voters 49+. The prices below reflect the all inclusive costs to complete the survey project the overall cost will not exceed those shown below, provided that parameters (e.g. hybrid survey methodology, survey length, sample size, etc.) of the project conform to those outlined in this proposal. Should project parameters or El Cerrito needs change, we will be happy to provide amended costs prior to proceeding. Finally, the City will only be billed the total amount from the options below that reflects the final time-tested survey length employed for this specific survey. Project Task 15-min. 18-min. Listed Voter Sample and De-duplication $1,100.00 $1,100.00 Additional Cell/Land Line Match $850.00 $850.00 CATI Programming $1,275.00 $1,530.00 Survey Pretest $100.00 $100.00 Internet Version Programming/Testing $4,250.00 $4,750.00 Internet Version Recruitment $500.00 $500.00 Telephone Interviewing $6,900.00 $8,100.00 Data Processing and File Merge $950.00 $1,050.00 Research Fee $7,250.00 $7,250.00 Project Management $2,250.00 $2,250.00 Miscellaneous Expenses $250.00 $250.00 Project Total $25,675.00 $27,730.00 Hybrid Survey of 400 (n=400) El Cerrito Voters ---PAGE BREAK--- GODBE RESEARCH www.godberesearch.com San Francisco Office/Northern California and Corporate Offices 1660 South Amphlett Boulevard, Suite 205 San Mateo, CA 94402 Southern California Office/Southwest 4695 MacArthur Court, 11th Floor Newport Beach, CA 92660 Seattle Office/Northwest 601 108th Avenue NE, Suite 1900 Bellevue, WA 98004