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MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study Section I- Demographic Summary & Market Review * The City of Douglas along with the Converse County School District #1 has engaged Ballard*King & Associates to determine the feasibility to relocate and redevelop their current community recreation center. The following is a summary of the basic demographic characteristics of the identified market areas and a comparison with basic participation standards as produced by the 2012 National Sporting Goods Association annual Survey and the most recent National Endowment ofthe Arts survey. Service Area: The focus of the community recreation center would be to serve the residents of the City of Douglas and those households that fall within Converse County School District # 1. As such the boundaries of Converse County School District # I have been identified as the primary service area for this report. Primary service areas are defined by the distance people will travel on a regular basis (a minimum of once a week) to utilize a facility or its programs. Secondary service areas are defined by the distance people will travel on a less consistent basis (a minimum of once a month) to utilize a facility or its programs. Usc by individuals in a secondary area will primarily be limited to special events (tournaments, etc.). Service areas can also vary in size with the types of components that are included in a facility. A center with active elements (weight cardiovascular equipment area, gym, track, etc.) will generally have a larger service area than a more passively oriented facility. Specialized facilities such as a sports field house, ice arena or large competitive aquatic venue will have even larger service areas that make them more of a regional destination. Service areas can also be based upon a facility's proximity to major thoroughfares. Other factors impacting the use as it relates to driving distance are the presence of alternative service providers in the City of Maryland Heights. Alternative service providers can have an impact upon membership, daily admissions and the associated penetration rates for programs and services. Page 1 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study Service Area Comparison Chart: School District Service Area Population: 2010 Census 9,557 2013 Estimate 10,048 2018 Estimate 10,659 Households: 20 I 0 Census 3,93 1 2013 Estimate 4, 152 2018 Estimate 4,444 Families: 2010 Census 2,669 2013 Estimate 2,795 2018 Estimate 2,961 Average Household Size: 20 10 Census 2.41 2013 Estimate 2.40 2018 Estimate 2.38 Ethnicity: Hispanic 7.0% White 93.8% Black 0.5% American Indian 0.9% Asian 0.5% Pacific Islander 0.1% Other 2.1% Multip_le 2.1% Median Age: 20 10 Census 37.9 20 13 Estimate 38.2 2018 Estimate 38.6 Median Income: 2013 Estimate $59,858 2018 Estimate $68,957 Household Budget Expenditures 1: Housing 94 Entertainment & Recreation 102 1 This information is placed on an index with a reference point being the National average of I 00. * Page 2 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * The median age and household income levels are compared with the national number as both of these f?ctors are primary determiners of participation in recreation activities. The lower the median age, the higher the participation rates arc for most activities. The level of participation also increases as the median income level goes up. Table A- Median Age: 2010 Census 2013 Projection 2018 Projection School District Area 37.9 38.2 38.6 State of Wyoming 36.8 37.2 38.0 Nationally 37.1 37.6 38. 1 Chart A- Median Age 39 38.5 38 00 37.5 37 36.5 36 35.5 20 10 2013 2018 • School District • Wyoming • National The median age for the School District Service Area is above the State and National number while the State number is below the National number. In the School District Service Area this would point to younger families with children, who also happen to be primary users of indoor recreation services and facilities. Page 3 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Map A - Median Age by Census Tract 0 0.0 to 14.9 \ 0 14.9 to 38.5 0 38.5 to 44.3 . C 44.3 to 49.6 \ • 49.6 to 56.3 Page 4 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study Table B - Median Household Income: 2013 Estimate 2018 Projection School District Area $59,858 $68,957 State of Wyoming $55,892 $66,996 Nationally $5 1,314 $59,580 Chart B - Median Household Income $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 ~ $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2013 2018 • School District • Wyoming • National Based upon 2013 projections the following narrative can be provided the service areas: * In the School District Area service area the percentage of households with median income over $50,000 per year is 60.8% compared to 51.5% on a national level. Furthermore, the percentage of the households in the service area with median income less than $25,000 per year is 18.1 % compared to a level of24.0% nationally. The median household income for the State of Wyoming is higher than the National number as is the School District Service Area. This would point to the possibility that on a household basis there may be more dollars available for recreation services. However, this information must also be balanced with the cost of living for the service area. Page 5 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- • MARKET ANALYSIS * City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study Map B - Median Household Income by Census Tract 0 so to $15,979 0 $15,979 to $45,420 0 $45,420 to $55,251 13 $55,251 to $67,063 • $67,063 to $88,358 Page 6 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * In addition to taking a look at Median Age and Median Jncome, it is important to examine Household Budget Expenditures. In particular looking at housing information; shelter, utilities, fuel and public services along with entertainment & recreation can provide a snap shot into the cost of living and spending patterns in the servtces areas. The table below looks at that information and compares the service areas. Table C - Household Budget Expenditures2 School District Area SPI Average Amount Spent Percent I lousing 94 $20,019.39 29.9% Sheller 91 $14,835.71 22.2% Ulililies, Fuel, Public Service 103 $5,183.68 7.8% Entertainment & Recreation 102 $3,324.70 5.0% State of Wyoming SPI Average Amount Spent Percent Housing 98 $20,782.85 30.4% Sheller 96 $15,587.05 22.8% Ulililies, Fuel, Public Service 103 $5,195.77 7.6% Entertainment & Recreation SPI: Average Amount Spent: Percent: 104 $3,374.66 Spending Potential Index as compared to the National number of I 00. The average amount spent per household. 4.9% Percent of the total 100% of household expenditures. Note: Shelter along with Utilities, Fuel, Public Service are a p01tion of the Housing percentage. 2 Consumer Spending data are derived from the 2004 and 2005 Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Bureau of Labor Statistics. ESRI forecasts for 20 13 and 20 18. Page 7 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Chart C- Household Budget Expenditures Spending Potential Index 104 102 X 100 "0 c: 98 96 t: 0 94 01) 92 c: "0 90 0. C/J 88 86 84 I lousing Shelter Utilities, Fuel, Public Entertainment & Service Recreation • School District • Wyoming •National Chat1 C, illustrates the Household Budget Expenditures Spending Potential Index in the service area. The index in the School District Service Area and the State of Wyoming is split; spending less than the National in 2 areas and more in the other 2 areas. Looking at these numbers it would indicate that the cost of living in the School District Service Area and the State is lower than the National cost of living. Jt will be important to keep this inf01mation in mind when developing fee structure and looking at an appropriate cost recovery philosophy. Page 8 of 36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Recreation Expenditur·es Spending Potential Index: Finally through the demographic provider that B*K utilizes for the market analysis portion of the report we are able to examine the overall propensity for households to spend dollars on recreation activities. The following comparisons are possible. Table D - Recreation Expenditures Spending Potential Index3 School District Area SPI Average Spent Fees for Particip_ant Sports 89 $105.69 Fees for Recreational Lessons 82 $101.57 Social, Recreation, Club Membership 90 $150.07 Exercise Equipment/Game Tables 94 $63.23 Other Sports Equipment 11 4 $9.76 State of Wyoming SPI Average Spent Fees for Participant Sports 94 $111.53 Fees for Recreational Lessons 89 $110.50 Social, Recreation, Club Membership 94 $157.56 Exercise Equipment/Game Tables 97 $65.34 Other Sports Equipment 110 $9.42 Average Amount Spent: The average amount spent for the service or item in a year. SPI: Spending potential index as compared to the national number of I 00. 3 Consumer Spending data are derived from the 2006 and 2007 Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 9 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Chart D - Recreation Spending Potential Index 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fees for Participant Sports Social, Recreaiton, Club Membership • School District • Wyoming • National Other Sports Equipment The SPI for Entertainment & Recreation Services in the School District Service Area and in the State of Wyoming is lower in all areas excited that of "Other Sports Equipment." A potential cause for lack of spending in the 4 other areas could be a lack of programming or recreation facilities within the service area. This can be verified through the identification of other service providers in the area. It is also important to note that these dollars are currently being spent, so the identification of alternative service providers and the ability of another facility to capture a portion of these dollars will be important. Page 10 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study Map C- Entertainment & Recreation Spending Potential Index by Census Tract • * D 0 to33 0 33to 89 0 89 to 108 0 108 to 135 D 135 to 157 Page 11 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Map D - Immediate, Primary & Secondary Service Areas IOtlfiSOII Count}' :!87 N o t rt>11.1 c C? 1111 ;por till 0 c 'ht.10 nl. I C:.OIIfll f .sat 0 20 km l A lh:w t' Cllunty Convcr c Cotw -S9. u Count Ni c Page 12 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Population Distribution by Age: Uti lizing census information for the School District Area, the following comparisons are possible. Table E- 2013 School District Area Age Distribution (ESRI estimates) Ages -5 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Population: %of Total: National Population: Difference: Population % ofTotal Nat. Population Difference 689 6.9% 6.5% +0.4% 1,843 18.3% 16.9% +1.6% 818 8.1 % 10.1% -2.0% 2,541 25.3% 26.3% -1.0% 1,470 14.6% 13.9% +0.7% 1,435 14.3% 12.6% +1.7% 744 7.4% 7.8% -0.4% 509 5.0% 6.1% -1.1 % 20 13 census estimates in the different age groups in the School District Area. Percentage of the School District Area \population in the age group. Percentage of the national population in the age group. Percentage difference between the School District Area population and the national population. Chart E- 2013 School District Area Age Group Distribution 30 25 c 0 ~ 20 0. 0 15 E Q) u 10 Q) 5 0 -5 5- 17 yrs 18-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ • School District • National Page 13 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * The demographic makeup of the School District Area, when compared to the characteristics of the national population, indicates that there are some differences with an equal or larger population in the 5-17, 45-54 and 55-64 age groups and a smaller population in the 18-24, 25- 44, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. The largest positive variance is in the 55-64 age group with + 1.7%, while the greatest negative variance is in the 18-24 age group with Page 14 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS * City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study Population Distribution Comparison by Age: Utilizing census information from the School District Area, the following comparisons are possible. Table F- 2013 School District Area Population Estimates (U.S. Census Information and ESRI} Ages 2010 Census 2013 2018 Projection Projection -5 670 689 741 5-17 1,81 1 1,843 1,901 18-24 7 16 818 846 25-44 2,461 2,541 2,672 45-54 1,546 1,470 1,401 55-64 1,265 1,435 1,5 10 65-74 605 744 1,026 75+ 484 509 561 Chart F- School District Area Population Growth 3000 2500 c .2 2000 1500 0 ~ 1000 0 f- 500 0 -5 5-1 7 yr 18-24 25-44 45-54 Percent Percent Change Change Nat'l +10.6% +3.0% +5.0% -0.7% +18.2% -0.4% +8.6% +4.2% -9.4% -7.7% +19.4% +15.7% +69.6% +39.5% +15.9% +14.8% 55-64 65-74 75+ Table-F, illustrates the growth or decline in age group numbers from the 2010 census until the year 2018. It is projected that all of the age categories, except 45-54 will see an increase in population or static growth. It must be remembered that the population of the United States as a whole is aging and it is not unusual to find negative growth numbers in the younger age groups and significant net gains in the 45 plus age groupings in communities which are relatively stable in their population numbers. Page 15 of 36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS * City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study Below is listed the distribution of the population by race and ethnicity for the School District Area for 2013 population projections. Those numbers were developed from 2010 Census Data. Table G - School District Area Ethnic Population and Median Age (Source - U S. Census Bureau and ESR I) Ethnicity Total Median Age % of Population Population Hispanic 704 26.2 7.0% Table H - School District Area Population by Race and Median Age (Source - U.S. Census Bureau and ESRI) Ethnicity Total Median Age % of Population J>opulation White 9,427 38.9 93.8% Black 48 25.5 0.5% American Indian 92 37.5 0.9% Asian 46 40.0 0.5% Pacific Islander 6 37.5 0.1% Other 213 32.1 2.1% Multiple 216 17.9 2. 1% 2013 School District Area Total Population: 1 0,048 Residents Chart G - School District Area Non-White Population bv Race • Black • American Indian lA Pacific Islander %ofWY Population 9.7% %ofWY Population 89.6% 1.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 3.3% 2.4% UMultiple Page 16 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS * City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study Tapestry Segments: Jn addition to look at the age group distribution, population growth along with ethnicity and race of the service area B*K can fu rther examine the service area by examining the various tapestry segments. The following table outlines the top 5 tapestry segments within the School District Area and provides definitions for each of the tapestries. Table J- School District Area Tapestry Segment Comparison (ESRI estimates) School District Area Cumulative Percent Percent Green Acres ( I 7) 16.1% 16.1% I leartland Communities (50) 15.6% 31.7% Aspiring Young families (28) 14.0% 45.7% Milk & Cookies (19) 13.9% 59.6% Crossroads ( 41) 11.9% 71.5% U.S. Households Cumulative Percent Percent 3.1% 3.1% 2.0% 5.1% 2.3% 7.4% 2.2% 9.6% 1.5% 11.1% Gr·cen Acres (17) - Of the households within this tapestry 71% are married couples with and without children. Many fami lies are blue-collar Baby Boomers, many with children aged 6-17 years. The median age of this segment is 40.7 years and this segment is not ethnically dierse. Simple Living (57) - With a median age of 41 years this market is older than the U.S. as a whole. Approximately 1/5 of these residents are aged 65 years or older and 12% are aged 75 years and older. Young families with children and ethnic cultures are in the minority within this segment. Aspiring Young Families (28)- Most of the residents in these neighborhoods are young, startup fam ilies, married couples with or without children and single parents. Approximately 2/3 of the households are families, 27% are single person and 9% are shared. These neighborhoods are more ethnically diverse than the U.S. population. Milk & Cookies (19) - Upscale living on a family allowance, affluent married couples who are starting their families or already have young children. The population diversity is comparable to that of U.S. and the proportions ofthe population by race approximate the U.S. distributions. Crossroads (41) - These neighborhoods are growing communities in small towns in the South, Midwest and West. Married couples with and without children and single parents are the primary household types in these areas. One in five is Hispanic, a higher proportion than the u.s. Page 17 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Participation Numbers: Given the demographic realities of the School District Area, School District Area and Secondary Service Area service areas we can now move on to participation in recreation and sport activities. The National Sporting Goods Association completes an annual survey where they measure how individuals spend their leisure time. B*K takes the national average and combines that with participation percentages of the service areas based upon age distribution, median income and region. Those four percentage are then averaged together to create a unique participation percentage for the service area. This participation percentage when applied to the population of the service areas then provides an idea of the market potential for various activities. Page 18 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Table J - Recreation Activity Participation Rates for the School District Area Activity Age Income Region Nation Average Aerobics 15.6% 15.7% 19.8% 15.7% 16.7% Basketball 8.9% 8.6% 9.6% 9.0% 9.0% Bi II iards/Pool 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% Exercise w/ Equipment 20.1 % 21.4% 22.2% 20.2% 2 1.0% Exercise Walking Running/Jogging Swimming Volleyball Weight Lifting Workout (aJ Clubs Yoga Did Not Participate Age: Income: Region: National: Average: 36.0% 37.0% 37. 1% 35.8% 36.5% 13.7% 13.2% 14.8% 14.0% 13.9% 17.2% 19.2% 16.9% 17.0% 17.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 10.7% 11 13.2% 10.9% 11.5% 12.1% 12.8% 14.8% 12.3% 13.0% 7.9% 7.8% 8.2% 8.0% 8.0% Age I Income Region Nation Average 19.2% I 16.3% 18.4% 21.9% 18.9% Participation based on individuals ages 7 & Up of the School District Area. Par1icipation based on the 2012 estimated median household income in the School District Area. Participation based on regional statistics (West North Central). Participation based on national statistics. Average of the four columns. Page 19 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Anticipated Participation Numbers by Activity: Utilizing the average percentage from Table-J above plus the 2010 census information and census estimates for 2013 and 2018 (over age 7) the following comparisons can be made. Table K - Participation Rates School District Area Activity Average 2010 Part. 2013 Part. 2018 Part. Difference Aerobics 16.7% 1,437 1,515 1,607 170 Basketball 9.0% 777 819 869 92 Billiards/Pool 7.7% 661 697 740 78 Exercise w/ Equipment 21.0% 1,803 1,902 2,017 214 Exercise Walking 36.5% 3,139 3,311 3,5 11 372 Running/Jogging 13.9% 1 ' 198 1,264 1,340 142 Swimming 17.6% I ,513 1,596 1,692 179 Volleyball 3.5% 301 317 337 36 Weight Lifting 11 989 1,043 1 '106 117 Workout @ Clubs 13.0% 1 '11 8 1 ' 179 1,251 133 Yoga 8.0% 686 723 767 81 Activity Average 2010 Part. 2013 Part. 2018 Part. Difference Did Not Participate 18.9% 1,630 1,719 1,823 193 Note: The estimated participation numbers indicated above are for indoor activities and do not translate into attendance figures for the community facility that is being proposed by the School District Area. Page 20 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Participation by Ethnicity and Race: Participation in sports is also tracked by ethnicity and race. The table below compares the overall rate of participation nationally with the rate for Hispanics and African Americans. Utilizing information provided by the National Sporting Goods Association's 2012 survey, the following comparisons are possible. Table L - Comparison of National, African American and Hispanic J>articipation Rates School District National African Hispanic Area Participation American Participation Participation Aerobics 16.7% 14.9% 14.0% 13.9% Basketball 9.0% 9.0% 16.5% 10.4% Billiards/Pool 7.7% 7.7% 4.9% 8.3% Exercise w/ Equipment 21.0% 19.7% 15.9% 18.5% Exercise Walking 36.5% 34.6% 28.2% 31.0% Running/Jogging 13.9% 13.8% 11.0% 15.9% Swimming 17.6% 16.4% 6.8% 12.9% Yolley_ball 3.5% 3.6% 4.7% 4.5% Weight Lifting I 1.5% 10.4% 9.2% 10.0% Workout @ Clubs 13.0% 12.3% 9.5% 12.3% Yoga 8.0% 7.7% 4.6% 8.2% Primary Service Part: The unique participation percentage developed for the School District Area. National Rate: The national percentage of individuals who participate in the given activity. African American Rate: The percentage of African Americans who participate in the given activity. l-lispa nic Rate: The percentage of llispanics who participate in the given activity. Based on the fact that there is not a significant Hispanic and Black population in the School District Area those participation rates become Jess relevant to the impact on overall participation percentages. Page 21 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Summary of Sports Participation: The following chart summarizes part1c1pation in both indoor and outdoor activities utilizing information from the 2012 National Sporting Goods Association survey. Table M- Sports Participation Summary Sport Nat' I Nat'l Participation School School District Rank4 (in millions) District Area Area Exercise Walking 1 95.8 1 36.5% Exercising w/ Equipment 2 55.3 2 21.0% Swimming 3 51.9 3 17.6% Aerobic Exercising 5 38.5 4 16.7% Running/Jogging 8 36.3 5 13.9% Workout @ Club 10 35.5 6 13.0% Weightlifting 12 31.5 7 11.5% Basketball 13 25.6 8 9.0% Yoga 14 22.9 9 8.0% Billiards/Pool 15 21.8 10 7.7% Volleyball 28 10.3 11 3.5% Nat' l Ra nk: Popularity of sport based on national survey. Nat'l Pa rticipation: Percent of population that participate in this sport on national survey. Primary Service%: Ranking of activities based upon average from Table-J. Primary Service Rank: The rank of the activity within the School District Area. As you can see by Table-AD the participation percentages for the nation and the School District Area arc consistent with one another. As B*K does work across the country this consistency is not uncommon. It should also be said that as activities exercise walking, exercising w/ equipment and swimming arc those that cut across the entire age spectrum. 4 This ran!- is based upon the 5 1 activities reported on by NSGA in their 201 2 survey instrument. Page 22 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * In addition to examining the participation numbers for various indoor activities through the NSGA 2012 Survey and the Spending Potential Index for Entertainment & Recreation, B*K can access information about Sports & Leisure Market Potential. The following information illustrates participation rates for adults in various activities in the School District Area. Table N - Market Potential Index for Adult Participation in Activities- School District Area Adults participated in: Expected Percent of MPI Number of Adults Population Aerobics 640 8.5% 86 Basketball 632 8.4% 90 Jogging/Running 689 9.2% 86 Pilates 231 3.1% 93 Swimming 1,612 21.4% 110 Volleyball 262 3.5% 99 Walking for Exercise 2,249 29.9% 100 Weight Lifting 789 10.5% 89 Yoga 325 4.3% 74 Expected# of Adults: Number of adults, 18 years of age and older, participating in the activity. Percent of Population: Percent ofthe service area that pa11ieipates in the activity. M PI: Market potential index as compared to the national number of I 00. This table indicates that the overall propensity for adults to participate in the various activities listed is lower than the national number of 100 in many instances. This can be attributed to a number of factors; access to facilities and propensity to pay being two of the most common. Page 23 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Comparison of State Statistics with National Statistics: Utilizing inf01mation from the National Sporting Goods Association, the following charts illustrate the participation numbers in selected sports in the State of Wyoming. State of Wyoming participation numbers in selected indoor and outdoor sports - As reported by the National Sporting Goods Association in 201 2. Table 0 - Wyoming Participation Rates Sport Wyoming Participation (in thousands)5 Age Group Largest Number Exercise Walking 106 65-74 45-54 Exercising w/ Equipment 122 25-34 25-34 Swimming Aerobic Exercising Running/ 1 ogging Workout @J Club Weightlifting Basketball Yoga Bi 11 iards/Pool Volleyball WY Participation: Age Group: Largest Number: 11 I 7-11 7-11 46 35-44 25-34 19 12-17 25-34 64 25-34 25-34 71 25-34 25-34 101 12-17 12-1 7 18 25-34 25-34 78 25-34 25-34 0 12-17 12-1 7 The number of people (in thousands) in Wyoming who participated more than once in the activity in 2012 and are at least 7 years of age. The age group in which the sport is most popular or in other words, where the highest percentage of the age group participates in the activity. (Example: The highest percent of an age group that participates in exercise walking is 55-64.) This is a national statistic. The age group with the highest number of participants. Example: The greatest number of exercise walkers is in the 45-54 age group. (Note: This statistic is driven more by the sheer number of people in the age group than by the popularity of the sport in the age span.) This is a national statistic. 5 While some acti vities show 0 participation this does not paint a completely accurate picture. It does point to the fact that there were no individuals participating in these activities, but that no participation statistics were provided. Page 24 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Wyoming sport percentage of participation compared with the population percentage of the United States: Wyoming's population represents 0.2% of the population of the United States (based on 2013 Estimates). Table P - Wvoming Participation Correlation Sport Participation Percentages Basketball 0.4% Billiards/Pool 0.4% Exercising w/ Equipment 0.2% Swimming 0.2% Workout @2 Club 0.2% Weightlifting 0.2% Exercise Walking 0.1% Aerobic Exercising 0.1% Yoga 0.1% RLuming/Jogging 0.0% Volleyball 0.0% Note: Sports participation percentages refer to the total percent of the national population that participates in a sport that comes from the State of Wyoming's population. Page 25 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Non-Sport Participation Statistics: It is recognized that most community recreation are more than just sports oriented facil ities. Participation in a wide variety of passive activities and cultural pursuits is common and essential to a well-rounded center. This information is useful in determining some of the program participation and revenue in the operations section of the report. While there is not an abundance of inrormation available for participation in these types of activities as compared to sport activities, there arc statistics that can be utilized to help determine the market for cultural arts activities and events. There arc many ways to measure a nation's cultural vitality. One way is to chart the public's involvement with arts events and other activities over time. The NEA's Survey of Public Participation in the Arts remains the largest periodic study of atis participation in the United States, and it is conducted in partnership with the U.S. Census Bureau. The large number of survey respondents - similar in make-up to the total U.S. adult population - permits a statistical snapshot of American's engagement with the arts by frequency and activity type. The survey has taken place five times since 1982. allowing researchers to compare the trends not only for the total adult population, but also for demographic subgroups.6 6 National Endowment for the Arts, Arts Participation 2008 Highlights from a National Survey. Page 26 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Table 0 - Percentage of U.S. Adult Population Attending Arts Performances: 1982-2008 Rate of Change 1982 1992 2002 2008 2002-2008 1982-2008 Jazz 9.6% 10.6% 10.8% 7.8% -28% -19% Classical Music 13.0% 12.5% 11.6% 9.3% -20% -29% Opera 3.0% 3.3% 3.2% 2.1% -34% -30% Musical Plays 18.6% 17.4% 17.1% 16.7% -10% Non-Musical Plays 11.9% 13.5% 12.3% 9.4% -24% -21% Ballet 4.2% 4.7% 3.9% 2.9% -26% -31% Smaller percentages of adults attended performing arts events than in previous years. • Opera and jazz participation significantly decreased for the first time, with attendance rates falling below what they were in 1982. • Classical music attendance continued to decline - at a 29% rate since 1982 - with the steepest drop occurring from 2002 to 2008 • Only musical play no statistically significant change in attendance since 200. Table R - Percentage of U.S. Adult Population Attending Art Museums, Parks and Festivals: 1982-2008 Rate of Change 1982 1992 2002 2008 2002-2008 1982-2008 Art 22. 1% 26.7% 26.5% 22.7% -14% Museums/Galleries Parks/! Iistorical 37.0% 34.5% 31.6% 24.9% -21% -33% Buildings Craft/Visual Arts 39.0% 40.7% 33.4% 24.5% -27% -37% Festivals Attendance for the most popular types of arts events - such as museums and craft fairs - also declined. • After topping 26% in 1992 and 2002, the art museum attendance rate slipped to 23 percent in 2008 - comparable to the 1982 level. • The proportion of the U.S. adults touring parks or historical buildings has diminished by one-third since 1982. Page 27 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Table S- Median Age of Arts Attendees: 1982-2008 1- Rate of Change 1982 1992 2002 2008 2002-2008 1982-2008 U.S. Adults, Average 39 41 43 45 +2 +6 Jazz 29 37 43 46 +4 + 17 Classical Music 40 44 47 49 +2 +9 Opera 43 44 47 48 + 1 +5 Musicals 39 42 44 45 +1 +6 Non-Musical Plays 39 42 44 47 +3 +8 Ballet 37 40 44 46 +2 +9 Art Museums 36 39 44 43 -1 +7 Long-term trends suggest fundamental shifts in the relationship between age and arts attendance. • Performing arts attendees are increasingly older than the average U.S. adult. • Jazz concert-goers are no longer the youngest group of arts participants. • Since 1982, young adult (18-24 year old) attendance rates have declined significantly for jazz, classical music, ballet, and non-musical plays. • From 2002 to 2008, however, 45-54 year olds - historically a large component of arts audiences- showed the steepest declines in attendance for most arts events. Page 28 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * TableT- Percentage of U.S. Adult Population Performing or Creating Art: 1992-2008 Rate of Change 1992 2002 2008 2002-2008 1982-2008 Performing: Jazz 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% +0.0% -0.4% Classical Music 4.2% 1.8% 3.0% + 1.2% -1.2% Opera 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% -0.3% -0.7% Choir/Chorus 6.3% 4.8% 5.2% +0.4% -1.1 % Musical Plays 3.8% 2.4% 0.9% -1.5% -2.9% Non-Musical Plays 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% -0.6% -0.8% Dance 8.1 % 4.3% 2.1% -2.2% -6.0% Making: Painting[_Drawing_ 9.6% 8.6% 9.0% +0.4% -0.6% Pottery/Ceramics 8.4% 6.9% 6.0% -0.9% -2.4% Weaving/Sewing 24.8% 16.0% 13.1% -2.9% -1 1.7% Photography 11.6% 11.5% 14.7% +3.2% +3.1% Creative Writing 7.4% 7.0% 6.9% -0.1% -0.5% Adults generally are creating or performing at lower rates - despite opportunities for displaying their work line. • Only photography increased from 1992 to 2008 - reflecting, perhaps, greater access through digital media. • The proportion of U.S. adults doing creative writing has hovered around 7.0 percent. • The rate of classical music performance slipped from I 992 to 2002 then grew over the next six years. • The adult participation rate for weaving or sewing was almost twice as great in 1992 as in 2008. Yet this activity remains one of the most popular forms of ar1 creation. Page 29 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Table U - Percentage of U.S. Adult Population Viewing or Listening to Art Broadcasts or Recordings, 2008 (online media included) Percentage Millions of Adults Jazz 14.2% 31.9 Classical Music 17.8% 40.0 Latin or Salsa Music 14.9% 33.5 Opera 4.9% 11.0 Musical Plays 7.9% 17.8 Non-Musical Plays 6.8% 15.3 Dance 8.0% 18.0 Programs about the visual arts 15.0% 33.7 Programs about books/writers 15.0% 33.7 As in previous years, more Americans view or listen to broadcasts and recordings of arts events than attend them live. • The sole exception is live theater, which still attracts more adults than broadcasts or recordings of plays or musicals (online media included). • Classical music broadcasts or recordings attract the greatest number of adult listeners, followed by Latin or salsa music. • 33.7 million Americans listened to or watched programs or recordings about books. Page 30 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Below are listed those sports activities that would often take place either in an indoor community recreation facility, or in close proximity to, and the percentage of growth or decline that each has experienced nationally over the last I 0 years (2003-20 12). Table V- National Activity Trend (in millions) Sport/Activity 2012 Participation 2003 Participation Percent Change Yoga' 22.9 6.3 +263.5% Wrestling 15 2.8 1.3 + 115.4% Running/Jogging 40.0 22.9 74.7% Aerobic Exercising 44.8 28.0 60.0% Gymnastics 5.7 3.9 46.2% Exercise Walking 102.1 79.5 28.4% Weight Lifting 31.1 25.9 20.1 % Workout @ Club 35.2 29.5 19.3% Exercising w/ Equipment 57.7 48.6 18.7% Swimming Volleyball Basketball Cheerleading Billiards/Pool 2012 Participation: 2003 Participation: Percent Cha nge: 7 Since 2007 growth rate. 8 Since 2007 growth rate. 48.6 47.0 3.5% 10.3 10.5 -1.0% 25.6 27.9 -8.2% 3.3 4.1 -19.5% 21.8 30.5 -28.5% The number of participants per year in the activity (in millions) in the United States. The number of participants per year in the activity (in millions) in the United States. The percent change in the level of participation from 2003 to 20 12. Page 31 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Recreation Activity and Facility Trends: There continues to be very strong growth in the number of people participating in recreation and leisure activities. It is estimated that one in five Americans over the age of six participates in some form of fitness related activity at least once a week. American Sports Data, Inc. reported that membership in U.S. health clubs has increased by 76.1% between 1987 and 1999, and memberships in health clubs reached an all time high of 32.8 million in 20 I 0. The greatest increase in membership has occurred in the over 55 age group, followed by the under 18 and 35-54 age categories. Overall membership in the 35-54 age group increased while it actually decreased in the 18-34 age group. Statistics also indicate that approximately 12 out of every 100 people of the U.S. population (or 12%) belong to a health club. On the other side most public recreation centers attract between 20% and 30% of a market area (more than once) during the course of a year. All of this indicates the relative strength of a market for a community recreation facility. However despite these increases the American population as a whole continues to lead a rather sedentary life with an average of 25% of people across the country reporting that they engage in no physical activity (according to The Center for Disease Control). One of the areas of greatest participant growth over the last 10 years is in fitness related activities such as exercise with equipment, aerobic exercise and group cycling. This is also the most volatile area of growth with specific interest areas soaring in popularity for a couple of years only to be replaced by a new activity for the coming years. Also showing particularly strong growth numbers are icc hockey and running/jogging while swimming participation remains consistently high despite recent drops in overall numbers. It is significant that many of the activities that can take place in an indoor recreation setting are ranked in the top fifteen in overall participation by the National Sporting Goods Association. The multi-component concept of delivering recreation services continues to grow in acceptance with the idea of providing for a variety of activities and programs in a single location. This idea has proven to be financially successful by centralizing operations for operators and through increased generation of revenues from patrons able to participate in multiple and varied leisure needs under the same roof. These facilities have become identifiable centers for communities, and have promoted "family" recreation opportunities. The keys to success revolve around the concept of intergenerational use in a quality facility that has multi-use capabilities and the versatility and flexibility to meet ever-changing leisure needs. Aquatic Activity and Facility Trends: Without a doubt the hottest trend in aquatics is the leisure pool concept. This idea of incorporating slides, current channels, fountains, zero depth entry and other water features into a pool's design has proved to be extremely popular for the recreational user. The role of the conventional pool (6 to 8 lane lap pools with deep and cooler water) in meeting the recreational needs of swimmers has been greatly diminished. Leisure pools appeal to the younger children (who are the largest segment of the population that swim) and to families. These types of facilities are able to attract and draw larger crowds and people Page 32 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * tend to come from a further distance and stay longer to utilize such pools. This all translates into the potential to sell more admissions and increase revenues. It is estimated conservatively that a leisure pool can generate between 20% and 30% more revenue than a comparable conventional pool and the cost of operation, while being higher, has been offset through increased revenues. Of note is the fact that patrons seem wi lling to pay a higher user fee at a leisure pool than a conventional aquatics facility. Another trend that is growing more popular in the aquatic's field is the development of a raised temperature therapy pool for rehabilitation programs. This has usually been done in association with a local health care organization or a physical therapy clinic. The medical organization either provides capital dollars for the construction of the pool or agrees to purchase so many hours of pool time on an annual basis. This form of partnership has proven to be appealing to both the medical side and the organization that operates the facility. The medical sector receives the benefit of a larger aquatic center, plus other amenities that are available for their use, without the capital cost of building the structure. In addition, they are able to develop a much stronger community presence away from traditional medical settings. The faci lity operators have a stronger marketing position through an association with a medical organization and a user group that will provide a solid and consistent revenue stream for the center. This is enhanced by the fact that most therapy use times occur during the slower mid-morning or afternoon times in the pool and the facility. Despite the recent emphasis on recreational swimming and therapy, the more traditional aspects of aquatics (including swim teams, instruction and aqua fitness) remain as the foundation for many aquatic centers. The life safety issues associated with teaching children how to swim is a critical concern in most communities and competitive swim team programs through United States Swimming, high schools, and other community based organizations continue to be important. Aqua fitness, from aqua exercise to lap swimming, has enjoyed strong growth during the last ten years with the realization of the benefits of water-based exercise. The placement of traditional instructional/competitive pools, with shallow depth/interactive leisure pools and warm water therapy pools in the same enclosure has been well received in the market. This idea has proven to be financially successful by centralizing pool operations for recreation services providers and through increased generation of revenues from patrons willing to pay for an aquatic experience that is new and exciting. For many centers, the indoor aquatic complex has become the focal point for the facility and has expanded markets and ultimately revenues. Page 33 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * Due to the increasing recreational demands there has been a shortage in most communities of the following spaces. Gymnasiums Pools (especially leisure pools) Ice arenas Weight/cardiovascular equipment areas Indoor running/walking tracks Meeting/multipurpose (general program) space Community theater and events space Senior's program space Pre-school and youth space Teen use areas As a result, many communities have attempted to include these amenities in public community recreation facilities. Leisure pools (with slides and interactive water features) that appeal to younger swimmers and non-swimmers as well as families and seniors have become extremely popular and arc being built in conjunction with or instead of conventional pools. Weight/cardiovascular space is also in high demand and provides a facility with the potential to generate significant revenues (along with the leisure pool). Gyms, due to their flexibility and versatility are needed for both youth and adult activities. Ice arenas, although expensive to build and operate, have the potential to have a very positive cash flow and growth in hockey has been significant in the last 10 years, but is currently showings signs of a plateau. The success of most recreation departments is dependent on meeting the recreational needs of a variety of individuals. The fastest growing segment of society is the senior population and meeting the needs of this group is especially important now and will only grow more so in the coming years. Indoor walking tracks, exercise areas, pools and classroom spaces are important to this age group. Marketing to the younger more active senior (usually age 55-70) is paramount, as this age group has the free time available to participate in leisure activities, the desire to remain fit, and more importantly the disposable income to pay for such services. Youth programming has always been a cornerstone for recreation services and will continue to be so with an increased emphasis on teen needs and providing a deterrent to juvenile crime. With a continuing increase in single parent households and two working parent families, the needs of school age children for before and after school child care continues to grow as docs the need for preschool programming. The ever increasing demand for programming has put a real squeeze on the number of indoor recreation facilities that are available. Recreation has historically utilized school facilities during non-school hours for its programs and services. However, the limits of using school facilities, Page 34 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * the growth in school sports, and the lack of daytime program space has pushed communities to build separate recreation centers or partner with schools to enlarge facilities. Even with these new centers, use of school buildings has continued to be strong and has allowed for the growth in programs and services. As more and more communities attempt to develop community recreation centers the issues of competition with other providers in the market area have inevitably been raised. The loudest objections have come from the private health club market and their industry voice IHRSA. The private sector has vigorously contended that public facilities unfairly compete with them in the market and have spent considerable resources attempting to derail public projects. However, the reality is that in most markets where public community recreation centers have been built, the private sector has not been adversely affected and in fact in many cases has continued to grow. This is due in large part to the fact that public and private providers serve markedly different markets. One of the other issues of competition comes from the non-profit sector (primarily YMCA's but also Jewish Community Centers, and others), where the market is much closer to that of the public providers. While not as vociferous as the private providers, the non-profits have also often expressed concern over public community recreation centers. What has resulted from this is a strong growth in the number of partnerships that have occurred between the public and non-profit sector in an attempt to bring the best recreation amenities to a community. Community Recreation Center Benchmarks: Based on market research conducted by Ballard*King and Associates at community recreation centers across the United States, the following represents the basic benchmarks. • The majority of community recreation centers that are being built today are between 65,000 and 75,000 square feet. Most centers include three primary components A) A pool area usually with competitive and leisure amenities, B) Multipurpose gymnasium space, and C) Weight/cardiovascular equipment area. In addition, most centers also have group exercise rooms, drop-in childcare, and classroom and/or community spaces. • foor most centers to have an opportunity to cover all of their operating expenses with revenues, they must have a service population of at least 50,000 and an aggressive fee structure. • Most centers that are between 65,000 and 75,000 square feet have an operating budget of between $ 1,500,000 and $1,800,000 annually. Nearly 65% of the operating costs are from personnel services, followed by approximately 25% for contractual services, 8% for commodities, and 2% for capital replacement. • For centers that serve a more urban population and have a market driven fee structure, they should be able to recover 70% to 100% of operating expenses. For centers in more rural Page 35 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- MARKET ANALYSIS City of Douglas & Converse County School District 1 Community Recreation Center Feasibility Study * areas the recovery rate is generally 50% to 75%. Facilities that can consistently cover all of their operating expenses with revenues are rare. The first true benchmark year of operation does not occur until the third full year of operation. • The majority of centers of the size noted (and in an urban environment) above average daily paid attendance of 800 to as much as I ,000 per day. These centers will also typically sell between 800 and I ,500 annual passes (depending on the fee structure and marketing program). • lt is common for most centers to have a three-tiered fee structure that offers dai ly, extended visit (usually punch cards) passes, and annual passes. In urban areas it is common to have resident and non-resident fees. Non-resident rates can cost 25% to 50% higher than the resident rate and arc usually a topic of discussion amongst elected officials. Daily rates for residents average between $3.00 and $6.00 for adults, $3.00 and $4.00 for youth and the same for seniors. Annual rates for residents average between $200 and $300 for adults, and $ 100 and $200 for youth and seniors. Family annual passes tend to be heavily discounted and run between $350 and $800. • Most centers are open an average of 100 hours a week, with weekday hours being 6:00am to I O:OOpm, Saturdays 8:00am to 8:00pm and Sundays from noon to 8:00pm. Often hours are shorter during the summer months. Note: These statistics vaty by regions of the country. Page 36 of36 ---PAGE BREAK--- Page 3 of3 Midlifc Junction (33)- The median age for residents in these neighborhoods is 41.5 years; nearly 20% are aged 65 years or older. Households are a mix of family types and singles who live alone or share housing. Most of these residents are white. Enterprising Professionals (16) - Young, educated, single, married, working professionals are residents of this tapestry segment with 43% of the households being singles who live alone or share housing with roommates and 43% are married couple families. Most of the residents are white; however, 12% are Asian. Cozy & Comfoa·tablc (J 8) - These residents are middle-aged married couples who are comfortably settled in their single-family homes in older neighborhoods. Most residents are married without children or man·ied couples with school-aged or adult children. Up & Coming Families (12) - With an annual household growth rate of 5.2% the segment represents Tapestry's second highest household growth market. J\ mix of Generation Xers and Baby Boomers with a median age of3 1.9 years, this segment is the youngest ofTapestry's affluent fami ly markets. Traditions (32) - These neighborhoods are primarily a mix of married-couple families, single parents, and singles who live alone. There is little diversity in these communities. For years these residents sustained the manufacturing industry but now the service industry predominates. file:///C:/Users/Jcff'>/o20King/AppData/Local/Temp/notesl OD8C6/-web5434.htm 12/9/2013 ---PAGE BREAK--- \l I I 2 II~ I I ~ Recreation Center Feasibility Study Please Share Input New Recreat1on Center Commun~ty-Wtde Feas1b llty Study Meet1ng December 11th. 2013 6 30-8 00 PM At the Central Admm1stratton Board Room For more mformat1on please call [PHONE REDACTED] 615 Hamilton St1eet We are beginning the research and development process of a potential new recreation center for the city of Douglas. To help us with this process the CCSD # I Recreation Board, Converse County Commissioners and the City of Douglas have hired Ballard and King Associates to conduct a feasibility study. This study will provide them with essential information to determine if they will proceed with the development of a new recreation center. Part of this process includes meeting with key stakeholders within the community to assess the current operation model of recreation and it's parameters as it connects with the citizens of Douglas. In short, we want your input. We will be having a community wide meeting Wednesday, December II th from 6:30- 8:00 PM at the Central Administration Building. If you have any questions concerning the new recreation center please do not hesitate to call me at 307- 35 1-0558. Sincerely, Monty Gilbreath