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Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -22- Housing Needs Demographic, Housing and Economic Data Countywide Population and Economic Trends Centre County is diverse geographically across its 1,112 square miles. This beautiful and historic region has rural and forested areas, small towns and the Borough of State College, home of the main campus of State University (Penn State). The county includes 25 townships and 11 independent boroughs split into seven planning regions. The population in the County has increased from 99,267 residents in 1970 to an estimated 140,476 in 2004, a much faster rate of growth than that of as a whole (see Chart 2 below). Changes in the county’s roadways, its attractiveness as a retirement location and its expanding employment opportunities in education and healthcare will sustain these population growth rates. Chart 1: Centre County and Population Changes Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, Small Area Population Estimates 2003 I99 is a limited-access four-lane highway that runs from the southwest side of the county to I80 in the center of the county, just east of Bellefonte Borough. Current development of the I99 corridor that links the Turnpike to I80 is expected to encourage more commercial and industrial development along this high speed alternative to local routes. In turn, population growth in the county is expected to Percentage Change in Population 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2003 Centre County ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -23- continue as commuting times across the county decrease. Centre County population projections show much faster growth than as a whole. If these forecasts are accurate, will grow in population by 4% from 2000 to 2030 while Centre County will grow by 24% in total population. As seen in the chart below, the elderly population 65 years and older is increasing faster as a percentage of total population in Centre County than in the state. While large numbers of students concentrate the county population at lower age levels, residents in Centre County from 18 to 24 years old declined as a percentage of the population between 1990 and 2000. In the elderly population 65 and older is projected to increase by 34% by 2030 while the number of children under 18 years old will decline. By 2030, there will be more residents of 65 and older than younger than 18. Correspondingly, Centre County can look forward to similar patterns of changes in the elderly population through 2030. That is, older residents will become an increasing share of the total population. So, while Centre County can expect growth in all age levels the County can expect faster growth in the number of older residents than in other population groups. Chart 2: Population Shares by Age Group in Centre County and 1990 and 2000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 65+ 9.0% 10.4% 15.4% 15.6% 25-64 44.5% 44.8% 50.8% 51.7% 18-24 28.2% 26.8% 10.3% 8.9% under 18 18.3% 18.0% 23.5% 23.8% 1990 2000 1990 2000 Centre County Centre County Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1990, 2000 ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -24- Economic Development Economic development in Centre County has been focused in the Centre Region surrounding State College, although other areas also provide a variety of employment opportunities. The largest employers in Centre County are Penn State University, State government, State College Area School Systems and the Mt. Nittany Medical Center (Center for Workforce Information and Analysis). Centre County has seen the steady loss of manufacturing jobs. Most recent were the closings of the Corning Asahi Video Products, Murata Electronics and Ruetgers Organics located in Ferguson Township and College Township. Remaining manufacturing employment is in smaller firms. As illustrated in the chart below, neighboring counties also lost manufacturing jobs, further depleting the availability of this type of employment for Centre County workers. Table 4: Manufacturing Plant Closings 2001 – 2005 Centre County and Neighboring Counties YEAR COUNTY NAME OF PLANT LOST JOBS 2001 Mifflin Lear 300 2002 Clinton International Paper 800 2002 Mifflin Scotty’s Window Fashions 230 2002 Clinton Autoline 167 2002 Clinton Champion 175 2003 Mifflin Guardian Industries 69 2003 Centre Corning Asahi 1000 2004 Centre Murata Electronics 300 2004 Centre Ruetgers Organics 65 2005 Clinton Drive Plus 140 Source: Central Workforce Development Corporation While the manufacturing layoffs from Centre County plants affected all parts of the county, many of the workers who lost their jobs resided outside Centre County. About 58% of laid-off workers from Corning Asahi resided in Centre County and just 51% of Murata Electronics workers. ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -25- While Centre County businesses have strong retention of workers, there has been a general lack of active start-up activity. The business incubators at the Moshannon Valley Economic Development Partnership’s facility and Penn State University’s Innovation Park are addressing the need for more emphasis on new businesses. High growth industries (electronics, plastics and research) are more concentrated in Centre County than in the U.S. economy as a whole, but according to the Appalachian Regional Commission, these too remain smaller employers. Table 1 in Appendix F shows a calculated comparison between the 1990 Census occupational categories and the 2000 Census occupational categories. Although the categories are not a perfect match between Census years, they provide a guideline to changes in occupational groups over this ten-year period. The data shows that the largest Table 5: Centre County Manufacturing Workers Laid Off After Centre County Manufacturing Closings in 2003 and 2004 Corning Asahi Ruetgers Organics Murata Electronics Aaronsburg 5 Bald Eagle Area 169 15 17 Bellefonte Borough 37 4 16 Benner Township 37 6 12 Centre Hall Borough 5 1 3 Coburn 4 College Township 21 5 6 Ferguson Township 45 9 19 Gregg Township 16 1 1 Halfmoon Township 18 1 6 Harris Township 12 3 10 Marion Township 3 Millheim Borough 5 2 Patton Township 30 7 14 Penn Township 1 Philipsburg Borough 40 12 Potter Township 16 7 Rebersburg 5 Rush Township 7 Spring Township 71 10 9 State College Borough 17 3 4 Walker Township 25 4 TOTAL 578 65 153 Percent of lost jobs 58% 100% 51% Sources: College Township Tax Office; Ferguson Township Tax Office ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -26- growth has been in life, physical and social science occupations and education, training, and library occupations. The most significant rate of decrease has been perfect match between census years, they provide a guideline to changes in occupational groups over this ten-year period. The data shows that the largest growth has been in life, physical and social science occupations and education, training and library occupations. The most significant rate of decrease has been in health care support occupations and health diagnosing and treating practitioners and technical occupations. Job growth projections vary from 16.2% in the County by 2010 (The Center for Workforce Information and Analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics) to 0.9 percent a year or about 7% from 2003 to 2010 (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development). The higher projection would mean an increase of 12,310 positions by 2010. As shown in Table 2 of Appendix F, they project that the largest occupational gains will be in education, training & library occupations (198 new positions per year); sales & related occupations (128 new positions per year); office & administrative support occupations (124 new positions per year); food preparation & serving occupations (106 new positions per year). See detailed tables in the Technical Supplement. Mean annual wages in Centre County in 2004 were $34,410, up from the 2003 average of $33,700. This represents a similar growth in wages to the state as a whole. The Table below lists the 2004 Mean Annual Wages by Occupation. The following summarizes some of the key points: • Mean annual wages for computer and mathematical, life, physical and social sciences, and architecture and engineering occupations range from $33,530 to $54,140, with technicians earning the lowest wages. • Educational workers, not including hourly paid employees, earn from $32,160 to $47,700 in mean annual wages. • Health care practitioners and technical workers average just over $54,000 per year in wages with registered nurses earning an estimated annual average of $43,130. • Construction workers earn an average of $14.89 per hour. • Those who serve and prepare food and provide personal care and services are the lowest paid workers, earning mean hourly wages of just $8.13. • The largest group of sales employees, retail salespersons, also earns just more than $9.30 an hour on average. • Those employed as management earn the highest wages with mean annual wages of $69,820. • The largest single occupational group in Centre County, Office and Administrative Support Occupations, employs 1 in every 6 workers at a mean annual wage of $26,820. • In all occupational groups, the mean income is significantly above the median annual wage, suggesting that lower paid groups dominate occupational groupings (June 2005 Metropolitan Area Employment and Wage Estimates, Bureau of Labor Statistics). ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -27- In general, Centre County workers earn to significantly lower wages than the averages. There are four exceptions as highlighted on Table 3 of Appendix F: Healthcare practitioner and technical occupations, protective service occupations, food preparation and serving related occupations and farming, fishing and forestry occupations. The majority of employment opportunities in the county are located around State College and Bellefonte. However, economic development in the western areas of the county, notably Rush Township, Philipsburg Borough and South Philipsburg Borough, is tied to the Moshannon Valley which includes 21 other municipalities located in Clearfield County. In this area the Moshannon Valley Economic Development Partnership and the Philipsburg Revitalization Corporation are actively developing and rehabilitating industrial, commercial and residential properties. The unemployment rate in Centre County, 3.4% in 2002 and 3.7% in 2004 is significantly lower than that of the surrounding counties and for as a whole. In 2002, the statewide unemployment rate was 5.8%. Clearfield County to the west had an unemployment rate of 8.5% in 2002. The counties south of Centre County (Blair, Huntingdon and Mifflin) and Clinton County to the north also experienced unemployment rates above the rate (Appalachian Regional Commission and Clinton County Economic Partnership) in 2002. Centre County is clearly a destination for workers commuting from surrounding areas with less active economies. Increasing population, job growth and the sprawl of residential development all contribute to changes in where workers live and how they commute to work. As roads improve and travel across the county becomes more efficient, workers and students are expected to move greater distances from State College in order to reduce housing costs without significantly increasing their commuting time. Employment and commuting patterns change over time. In Centre County, residents are increasingly working outside the county. In 1990, 5.8% of Centre County residents worked outside of the county but by 2000, 8.4% of residents worked in another county. Commuting times to the workplace increased several minutes from 17.1 minutes in 1990 to 19.6 minutes by 2000. The majority of workers employed at Penn State University at the University Park Campus in State College also live in Centre County. However, part time employees, full-time staff and technical workers are more likely to live outside the county than are executive, administrative and academic employees. This is likely due to the lack of affordable housing for these lower-wage employees near employment centers. ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -28- Table 6: Penn State Employees at University Park Campus By Residence, March 2005 Full-time employees Part time employees Reside in Centre County Reside outside Centre County % living in Centre County Reside in Centre County Reside outside Centre County % living in Centre County Executive/ Administrative 212 9 96% 0 0 0% Academic 2753 202 93% 304 84 78% Staff 5032 1378 79% 972 553 64% Technical 1365 434 76% 201 116 63% Total 9362 2023 82% 1477 753 66% Source: Penn State University Human Resources Notes: These counts exclude student employees. Part time numbers fluctuate from month to month Transportation Patterns Increases in population and shifts in employment also affect transportation patterns. Predicted changes in the Long Range Transportation Plan by 2030 show especially heavy traffic on I99 north of State College and along I80, both east and west along the center of the county. The Transportation Analysis Zones show that I80 to the east cuts through parts of Marion Township where the median income is above the median county income and population density is very low. To the west, Route 80 cuts through parts of Snow Shoe Township, with low density and median income below the county median and parts of Boggs Township with higher density mixed with commercial and retail businesses and median incomes above the county median. The heavily traveled section of the proposed I99 corridor north of State College Borough is mainly in Spring Township. The majority of Transportation Analysis Zones along the corridor to I80 show very little residential development; the majority of homes are mixed in zones with office and retail businesses. Median incomes in these zones are on the whole higher than the county median. In several zones, industrial and commercial businesses dominate land use. These more commercial zones along the major routes may attract residents to nearby, more rural communities, where homes are close to major routes for easy commuting but retain a more suburban or small village feel. ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -29- Income Although median household income lagged behind the State median from 1989 to 2002, the median income in Centre County is steadily rising. Median family income was below the State level in 1989, but in 1999, the median family income exceeded figures. While the family incomes are rising, the lower household incomes in the County reflect the high student population. Table 7: Median Income, Centre County, 1989, 1999, 2002 1989 1999 2002* Median Household Income 26,060 36,165 37,064* Median Family Income 34,313 50,557 N/A** *Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, **Estimates for Median Family Incomes are not available on the County level Table 8: Median Income, 1989, 1999, 2002 1989 1999 2002* Median Household Income 29,069 40,106 42,043* Median Family Income 34,856 49,184 53,680** * Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates Current Population Survey 2004 Despite economic activity and the relatively low unemployment rate, Centre County has a surprisingly high level of residents living below the poverty level. The level is fairly steady in recent years at about 10% of residents compared to with a poverty rate of 11% of all residents. Rates across the County vary widely. For example, while 10% of families in Burnside, Curtin and Huston Townships have incomes below the poverty level (U.S. Census Bureau), these Townships also have more than 14% of residents 65 years and older with incomes below the poverty level, as do Liberty and Marion Townships. Children under 18 in families are more likely to live below the poverty level in Bellefonte Borough Burnside Township Haines Township and Miles Township (24.5%) according to the 2000 Census. Summary of Population and Economic Trends Over the past 30 years, the population of Centre County has increased at a significantly faster rate than for the state as a whole. Although the County has lost approximately 1500 manufacturing jobs in recent years, the unemployment rate in 2004 was only 3.7%. Further, there is projected to be an increase in employment opportunities of approximately, 1,230 jobs per year through 2010. At the same time, wages are lower in Centre County than the state as a whole for comparable occupations.