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Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -114- Unmet Need Centre County is experiencing rising housing values without an equivalent rise in wages and income. Population is expected to continue to grow by about 42,000 residents through 2030. Elderly residents will become a larger percentage of the population and younger children will become a smaller part of the population. The workforce population will remain a constant percentage of the total population and will increase by about 18,690 residents through 2030. The increase in population places pressure on existing housing and on new housing production. Competition for housing has increased average values of homes in Centre County above the average value in although most occupations pay lower wages than elsewhere in the State. This will increase demand for both rental and owner-occupied housing for a wide range of incomes. If homeowners remain a consistent percentage of households in the county, with an increase of 42,000 residents or about 16,091 households (at 2.61 persons per housing unit) by 2030 of which 60% will be homeowners and of these homeowners 83% will want single family homes, there will be a demand for 8,013 single family homes. If the vacant homeowner units are all occupied, the demand for new units will be reduced to 7,276 single-family homes. This represents more single-family homes than there were residents in any of the municipalities outside the Centre Region in 2000. However, in order for homeownership to continue at its previous rate, families must have sufficient resources to purchase and maintain their homes in the face of rising sales prices. Some households are being left far behind as the housing value boom continues. Families with lower incomes who are renting their homes will struggle to move into homeownership. The chart below shows, according to the 2000 census, the number of sales and rental units affordable in the Centre County housing stock to households of very low (income <30% of median), low (income >30% and <50% of median) and moderate income (income >50% and <80% of median). It also indicates the number of these housing units affordable at each income level that were occupied in the second column. The column titled, “units occupied by households with matching income” is the number of households in that income group with incomes that enable them to afford the available housing units. HUD defines matching incomes as those households who pay 30% or less of their income to cover housing costs, in other words, those living in housing they can afford. For homeowners, housing costs are the sum of mortgage payments, taxes, insurance and utilities. For tenants, housing costs include rent and utilities. ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -115- Table 31: Number of Units Available for Households with less than 80% of the Median Area Income in 2000 Rental Units 2000 Total units Occupied units Vacant units for rent Units with problems Units built before 1970 Units occupied by households with matching income Units affordable to HH with incomes <30% of the HUD median 3,075 2,855 220 699 1,450 1,137 Units affordable to HH with incomes > 30% - < 50% of the HUD median 6,405 6,190 215 2,872 3,572 3,250 Units affordable to HH with incomes > 50% - < 80% of the HUD median 8,590 8,405 185 4,505 3732 5,606 Homeowner Units 2000 Total units Occupied units Vacant units for sale Units with problems Units built before 1970 Units occupied by households with matching income Units affordable to HH with incomes <30% of the HUD median NA NA NA NA NA NA Units affordable to HH with incomes > 30% - < 50% of the HUD median 7,944 7,660 284 567 4,282 6,205 Units affordable to HH with incomes > 50% - < 80% of the HUD median 9,437 9,352 85 206 4,966 2,731 Source: CHAS data book, 2000 Census These data show that both homeowners and tenants with the lowest incomes are living in homes they cannot afford. Some rental units that should be available to households with incomes less than 30% of the HUD median area income are occupied by households with higher incomes. Only 1,137 tenant households with the lowest income captured one of the 3,075 rental units they could afford. ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -116- The following chart shows the number of both rental and sales units that would be needed to enable all households in each income group to live in affordable housing. Table 32: Needed Units in 2000 for Rental and Homeowner Units by Income Level Renters Total number of renters Rental units available to this income group Rental units with no problems available to this income group Needed units = total tenants – rental units with no problems Tenant House- holds with incomes <30% of the HUD median 5,700 3,075 2,376 3,324 Tenant House- holds with incomes > 30% - < 50% of the HUD median 4,312 6,405 3,533 779 Tenant House- holds with incomes > 50% - < 80% of the HUD median 4,041 8,590 4085 0 Homeowners Total number of homeowners Homeowner units available to this income group Homeowner units with no problems available to this income group Needed Units = total homeowners – owner units with no problems Homeowner households with incomes <30% of the HUD median 1,667 0 0 1,667 Homeowner households with incomes > 30% - < 50% of the HUD median 2,438 7,944 7,377 0 Homeowner households with incomes > 50% - < 80% of the HUD median 4,767 9,437 9,231 0 Total number of counted homeless households Unmet Need = Total number of homeless households Homeless 18 18 Source: CHAS data book, 2000 Census, Point-in-Time Survey January 2005 This chart shows that all 1,667 households with the lowest incomes owned homes with housing costs higher than 30% of their income. ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -117- Total unmet need is more complicated than the simple tables above that calculate needed units. Since homeowners do not move around to occupied homes that are affordable to them, some homeowners live in housing that costs equal to or less than 30% of their income. Perhaps they have paid off their mortgages. Likewise, there are no data to tell us how many tenant households would like to become homeowners. Nor do we know the number and housing costs associated with accessible housing units. The following chart estimates the total unmet need. Above, we assume that tenants and homeowners can move freely. In the following chart, we assume that occupied homeowner units are not fluid in the market and represent households who have paid off their mortgages or choose to spend less of their income on housing. Thus, these occupied homeowner units are not available to households who have inadequate housing. At each income level we calculate the number of homeowner units with no problems and affordable at the specified income. We subtract the number of units occupied by homeowners who can afford the available homes and also subtract any housing that was “unused” and affordable at a lower income level. In this way, we adjust for the fact that homeowners are not particularly mobile. Table 33: Unmet Need for Homeowner Units by Income, 2000 Homeowners Homeowner units with no problems available to this group Number of units owned by HH of same income as the affordability of the home Number of units affordable and unused at a lower cost level Unmet need Homeowner households with incomes <30% of the HUD median 0 0 0 1,667 Homeowner households with incomes > 30% - < 50% of the HUD median 7,377 6,205 0 0 Homeowner households with incomes > 50% - < 80% of the HUD median 9,231 2,731 1,172 = 7377-6205 5,328 Needed housing may also be calculated by type of household if we assume that households will not move from renting a home to buying a home and vice versa. Low-income elderly homeowners and small, related families are more likely to need more affordable housing than other homeowners. Single households and unrelated persons renting a home together are most in need of affordable rental housing. ---PAGE BREAK--- Centre County Affordable Housing Needs Assessment: A Blueprint for Action -118- Table 34: Unmet Need for Housing by Type of Household and Income Level Renters: Total number of needed units of affordable housing Elderly households 62 and older – 1 or 2 persons Small families of 2 – 4 related family members Large families of 5 or more related family members All others Renter House- holds with incomes <30% of the HUD median 3,324 223 451* 73 2,577 Renter House- holds with incomes > 30% 50% of the HUD median 779 115 139 21 504 Homeowners Homeowner households with incomes <30% of the HUD median 1667 880 353 93 341 Homeowner households with incomes > 30% 50% of the HUD median 0 0 0 0 0 Homeowner households with incomes > 50% 80% of the HUD median 5,328 1,919 2,075 497 837 * Includes 4 homeless families