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Restoring the Gulf Environment What Can Dynamics Solutions, LLC Do To Assist Bay County Under the RESTORE Act? Jan Mandrup-Poulsen Sr. Environmental Scientist Panama City, FL November 12, 2014 ---PAGE BREAK--- What Can Dynamic Solutions Do? • Dynamic Solutions, LLC has performed water quality assessments around the nation. For 20 years, they have provided expert help by providing expertise on hydrodynamic and water quality models. • Jan Mandrup-Poulsen spent over 30 years working with FL DEP, with 15 years creating and leading the TMDL Program. ---PAGE BREAK--- What Will Be Provided? Dynamic Solutions, LLC will provide to Bay County a foundational tool that will allow for the assessment of impacts to the local ecology fish, crabs, scallops, seagrass) due to proposed structural and operational modifications in St. Andrew Bay and the nearby coastal waters. Potential impacts can be assessed prior to final project selection and funding. ---PAGE BREAK--- Project Area to be Covered (Estuarine and Coastal Waters) ---PAGE BREAK--- EPA’s Modeling Tools • In 2010, EPA established a Total Maximum Daily Load for St Andrew Bay to address high nutrients and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. • Under either option, this proposal will leverage the existing modeling done by the EPA to expedite the development of the project and reduce the overall cost. ---PAGE BREAK--- EPA’s Modeling Tools EPA developed the following models: • LSPC – A watershed loading model • EFDC – A hydrodynamic model • WASP – A water quality model Under Option 1, will use the outputs from EPA’s models to drive the CASM. Under Option 2, will update the EPA’s models with data gathered since 2008 to drive the CASM. ---PAGE BREAK--- Comprehensive Aquatic Systems Model (CASM) 7 • Bioenergetics-based growth in an aquatic food web model • Producers: dBP /BPdt = – Photorespiration – Dark Respiration – Sinking – Natural Mortality – Grazing • Consumers: dBC/BCdt = {Consumption - (Egest+Excrete+SDA) – Respiration – Natural Mortality – Predation}*hmod • Consumption dependent upon prey and predator biomasses ---PAGE BREAK--- CASM Approach for St Andrew Bay • 33 species/functional groups in the food web • CASM food webs set up on the hydro model grid • Daily time step simulated over single years • CASM inputs are averaged daily values from field data and cell outputs from the hydro model • Environmental inputs modify producer and consumer processes in food webs ---PAGE BREAK--- CASM for Gulf Restoration • CASM (plus other models) set up for specific coastal regions to evaluate lethal and sub-lethal effects on key species in food web • Food web dynamics driven by temperature, light, nutrients, salinity, habitat structure, species effects from toxins measured in the field and laboratory • Environmental inputs from data and/or linked with hydrodynamic and water quality models • Evaluate bottom-up effects and species interactions at daily and seasonal, annual and multiyear time scales – Short-term, pulsed, decaying, or varying effects ---PAGE BREAK--- CASM Food Web ---PAGE BREAK--- Biological Data: Habitat Modifiers 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.25 3.25 6.25 9.25 12.25 15.25 18.25 21.25 24.25 27.25 30.25 33.25 Habitat Mod Salinity Brown Shrimp - YOY Grove MRGO Observed CPUE (scaled) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0.25 3.25 6.25 9.25 12.25 15.25 18.25 21.25 24.25 27.25 30.25 33.25 Habitat Mod Salinity Largemouth Bass Grove MRGO Observed CPUE (scaled) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 Habitat Mod Secchi Depth Brown Shrimp - YOY Grove Observed CPUE (scaled) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 Habitat Mod Secchi Depth Largemouth Bass Grove Observed CPUE (scaled) ---PAGE BREAK--- Example Baseline Diets Biomass Consumed (g C/m2) Day of Year Periphyton Zoobenthos POC White Shrimp Zooplankton Bay Anchovy Phytoplankton ---PAGE BREAK--- Summary • This project conforms to the Bay County Multi-Year Implementation Plan. • Provides a one-time foundation tool that can be used to aid in the restoration and protection of aquatic resources that are important to Bay County residents. • Aids in the mitigation of damage to fish/ other estuarine and marine organisms. ---PAGE BREAK--- Summary • Addresses all of the estuarine and near- shore coastal waters in Bay County (approximately 142,800 acres). • Uses the Best Available Science: – By applying nationally accepted peer- reviewed, public domain modeling tools – Using local water quality and ecological data – Does not require new data collection • Provides planning assistance. ---PAGE BREAK--- Project Cost • Option 1: Use existing EPA models (with pre-2009 data) to develop and inform the ecological model: $380,566 • Option 2: Update the existing EPA models (using existing data gathered through 2013) to develop and inform the ecological model: $448,420 ---PAGE BREAK--- Contact Info Dynamic Solutions, LLC Jan Mandrup-Poulsen Tallahassee, FL 850/567-2711