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East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 3.0 TRAFFIC FORECASTS 3.0 TRAFFIC FORECASTS ---PAGE BREAK--- East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 3.1 Methodology Traffic forecasting was conducted using the Anoka County travel demand model, which is a modified subset of the Metropolitan Council’s regional demand model built on a TP+ platform. Using the Anoka County model, baseline volumes were established using the year 2000 dataset. A base forecast for the year 2030 was then established using Anoka County’s default 2030 land use dataset and highway network. The land use dataset was created by obtaining growth rates in employment, housing, and population by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) from the Metropolitan Council’s socioeconomic dataset, and applying these rates to the corresponding TAZs within the base year Anoka County model. The future year highway network was obtained directly from Anoka County and includes improvements from the Anoka County Long Range Transportation Plan as well as the Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP). Significant local improvements include the extension of TH-610 to I-94, and widening of TH-10 between Hanson Boulevard NW and I-35W. To establish projected volume increases within the study area, future year model volumes were compared to baseline year 2000 model volumes, and corrected using the procedure outlined in Report 255 (Pederson and Samdahl, 1982). First, total 30-year growth by link in Average Daily Traffic (ADT) was calculated by comparing the difference between baseline model volumes and future year model volumes. Next, percentage growth was calculated by dividing total 30-year growth by the baseline model volumes, establishing a growth ratio. To calibrate the forecast to field data, total growth for each link, in ADT, was then added to year 2000 counts provided by MnDOT to establish a corrected “difference” forecast, and the calculated growth ratio for each link was applied to the year 2000 counts to establish a corrected “ratio” forecast. The average of each of these forecasts was then taken as the final “combined” forecast by link. Yearly linear growth was then calculated by link using the “combined” forecast. As the demand model typically includes multiple links for each MnDOT segment with count data available, linear growth was averaged within each MnDOT segment and applied to the count data to produce a final smoothed forecast by segment based on projected growth from the model and year 2000 count data. 3.2 Volumes Exhibit 3-1 provides the forecast results and calculated growth percentages for East River Road (CSAH 1) as well as segments of University Avenue (TH 47), Central Avenue (TH 65), 85th Avenue NW (County Road 132), Osborne Road NE (CSAH and Mississippi Street NE (CSAH The forecast volumes reflect rounded values based on American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) procedures. Projected annual linear growth on East River Road ranged from 0.4 to 0.8 percent, or around 12 to 23 percent total growth over the 30 year period. The heaviest volumes on East River Road are projected to reach 28,500 average daily vehicles south of Mississippi Street NE. A map showing base year and projected average daily traffic ADT is provided in Exhibit 3-2. Exhibit 3-1. Forecast Results and Growth Percentages Roadway ADT Annual Growth 2000 Count 2030 Linear Total From To Existing Network Future Year Network 2000 to 2030 2000 to 2030 EAST RIVER ROAD TH 610 85th Avenue 13,900 17,000 23% 85th Avenue 79th Way 17,600 21,000 0.6% 19% 79th Way Osborne Road 19,500 22,000 0.4% 12% Osborne Road Mississippi Street 20,000 23,500 0.6% 18% Mississippi Street I-694 25,000 28,500 0.4% 13% UNIVERSITY AVENUE 85th Avenue Osborne Road 38,000 42,000 0.4% 11% Osborne Road Mississippi Street 37,000 39,000 0.2% 5% Mississippi Street 57th Avenue 36,000 37,500 0.1% 4% 57th Avenue I-694 35,000 35,000 0.0% 1% CENTRAL AVENUE 81st Avenue Osborne Road 35,500 41,500 0.6% 17% Osborne Road 73rd Avenue 35,500 40,000 0.4% 13% 73rd Avenue Mississippi Street 35,000 37,500 0.3% 8% Mississippi Street Medtronic Parkway 35,000 38,000 0.3% 8% Medtronic Parkway I-694 35,000 40,000 0.5% 14% 85TH AVENUE East River Road Evergreen Boulevard 9,000 10,000 0.4% 12% OSBORNE ROAD East River Road Commerce Lane 9,300 12,000 0.9% 27% Commerce Lane TH 47 11,600 15,500 1.2% 35% TH 47 TH 65 11,700 13,000 0.4% 11% MISSISSIPPI STREET East River Road 2nd Street 6,600 6,900 0.1% 4% 2nd Street TH 47 8,300 8,700 0.1% 4% TH 47 Monroe Street 10,900 11,500 0.2% 6% Monroe Street TH 65 6,900 8,000 0.5% 16% ---PAGE BREAK--- East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 Exhibit 3-2. Year 2030 Forecast AADT Volumes ---PAGE BREAK--- East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 3.3 Origin-Destination Analysis In order to identify the primary origins and destinations of travelers utilizing East River Road in the year 2030, a selected link analysis was performed. The technique allows the user to specify a link or series of links, and then aggregates the total number of vehicles that utilize the selected link during each trip. Primary origins and destinations are therefore readily identifiable as those regions with high numbers of vehicles utilizing the selected link or links of interest. Exhibit 3-3 depicts the results of this analysis, with line weight representing the total number of southbound vehicles that use at least some portion of East River Road between Osborne Road and I-694, the southern half of the corridor. While the volumes provided represent daily traffic, demand for the southbound portion of East River Road is heaviest during the A.M. peak hour. North of Interstate 694, much of the demand is driven by a few select cities east of the Mississippi River including Anoka, Spring Lake Park, Blaine, Andover, Anoka, and Ramsey. Each of these cities generates at least 300 southbound trips on the corridor, or around two percent of the total southbound daily volume on the southernmost section of East River Road. Cities in northern Anoka County such as Nowthen, Oak Grove, St. Francis, Bethel, East Bethel, and Ham Lake represent a small proportion of the overall demand for the corridor due to the presence of I-35W, TH 65 and other primary commuter corridors that serve these areas. There are also trips that originate outside of Anoka County, such as traffic coming off of TH 610 eastbound coming from Hennepin County. Throughout the day, about 95 percent of the trips on East River Road have either an origin or a destination within Anoka County. Of that 95 percent, only about 20% of those trips have both an origin and destination within Anoka County. The other five percent is pass- through traffic, which starts and ends outside Anoka County and uses East River Road to simply to “pass through.” 3.4 Alternative Scenarios 3.4.1 Alternative Highway Networks In addition to the 2030 baseline condition, two alternative highway network scenarios were analyzed to investigate the effects of network modifications on congestion in the corridor. The first scenario, referred to as Alternative A, included the 57th Avenue (CR 102) connection over the BSNF tracks from Main Street NE to East River Road, as identified in the City of Fridley 2030 Comprehensive Plan. The facility was assumed to have the same operational characteristics as Mississippi Street NE. The second scenario, referred to as Alternative B, included the full conversion of TH 252 to a four-lane limited access freeway facility between I-694 and TH 610. Projected ADT on the primary facilities in and around the study area are presented in Exhibit 3-4. A chart showing segment volumes on East River Road relative to an assumed per lane-pair capacity of 15,000 to 18,000 ADT is provided in Exhibit 3-5, and a map showing projected ADT provided in Exhibit 3-6. The addition of a 57th Avenue connection to East River Road was found to have very little effect on East River Road volumes, with only minor deviations from base future year projections. However, the facility would draw a significant percentage of volume from the parallel roadway to the north, leading to ADT reductions of nearly 3,000 vehicles on Mississippi Street. This represents a diversion of approximately 30 percent of the projected future year demand for Mississippi Street, with volumes falling to around 65 percent of the observed year 2000 volumes. Given the lack of impact on East River Road itself, Alternative A was not carried forward for additional traffic analysis. However, these results should be considered if funding for a 57th Avenue connection is secured. Alternative B, the improved TH 252 network alternative, was modeled to represent capacity enhancements on a parallel facility. TH 252 runs directly parallel to East River Road on the west side of the Mississippi River, and the improvements were found to significantly reduce volumes on East River Road. By connecting TH 610 in the north to I-94/US 52 and I-694 in the south, the facility would likely draw demand from most major north-south commuter routes in the area, including East River Road, University Avenue, and Central Avenue. Results indicate that volumes would drop to pre-2000 levels on several segments of each of these facilities. Due to the significant unfunded cost of such a project, however, the alternative was not carried forward for additional analysis. These results identify the impacts of two major network improvements in the study area, providing guidance for potential future projects. However, for the reasons described above, only the base network was carried forward for more detailed traffic analysis. Exhibit 3-3. Origin-Destination Analysis Results (Southbound Demand) ---PAGE BREAK--- East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 Exhibit 3-4. Primary Average Daily Traffic (ADT) in the Study Area Roadway ADT 2000 Count 2030 Projections From To Existing Network Future Year Network Alternative A Alternative B EAST RIVER ROAD TH 610 85th Avenue 13,900 17,000 17,000 15,000 85th Avenue 79th Way 17,600 21,000 21,000 18,000 79th Way Osborne Road 17,600 21,000 21,000 18,000 Osborne Road Mississippi Street 20,000 23,500 23,500 17,500 Mississippi Street I-694 25,000 28,500 28,000 23,000 UNIVERSITY AVENUE 85th Avenue Osborne Road 38,000 42,000 42,000 33,500 Osborne Road Mississippi Street 37,000 39,000 39,000 32,000 Mississippi Street 57th Avenue 36,000 37,500 36,500 31,000 57th Avenue I-694 35,000 35,000 37,000 29,500 CENTRAL AVENUE 81st Avenue Osborne Road 35,500 41,500 41,500 36,500 Osborne Road 73rd Avenue 35,500 40,000 40,000 34,500 73rd Avenue Mississippi Street 35,000 37,500 37,500 32,000 Mississippi Street Medtronic Parkway 35,000 38,000 38,000 33,000 Medtronic Parkway I-694 35,000 40,000 40,000 35,000 85TH AVENUE East River Road Evergreen Boulevard 9,000 10,000 9,700 9,900 OSBORNE ROAD East River Road Commerce Lane 9,300 12,000 11,500 8,400 Commerce Lane TH 47 11,600 15,500 15,000 12,500 TH 47 TH 65 11,700 13,000 13,000 12,500 MISSISSIPPI STREET East River Road 2nd Street 6,600 6,900 4,300 6,300 2nd Street TH 47 8,300 8,700 5,900 8,000 TH 47 Monroe Street 10,900 11,500 11,000 12,000 Monroe Street TH 65 6,900 8,000 7,900 8,100 Alternative A – 57th Avenue Extension Alternative B – Highway 252 Improvements 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 0 1 2 3 4 5 ADT (Vehicles) Distance Along Corridor (Miles) Alternative A Alternative B 2030 Forecast 2000 Count 6 Lanes 4 Lanes 2 Lanes 2/4 Lanes 4/6 Lanes N S TH 610 85th Avenue 79th Avenue Osborne Road Mississippi Street I-694 ↓ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ Exhibit 3-5. Segment Volumes on East River Road ---PAGE BREAK--- East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 Exhibit 3-6. Future Area Roadway Traffic Volumes by Highway Network Scenario ---PAGE BREAK--- East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 3.4.2 Alternative Land Uses Two alternative land use scenarios were generated based on potential redevelopment scenarios discussed with the City of Fridley and the City of Coon Rapids. Each required modifications to housing, population, and employment data by traffic analysis zone and running the travel demand model based on the updated data. Land Use Scenario One examined the effects of a significant increase (beyond Metropolitan County projections) in development intensity in the Transit Oriented Development (TOD) overlay district around the Fridley Station. Estimates from the Metropolitan Council project 30-year housing and employment growth of between 10 percent and 40 percent, in the four TAZs surrounding the station. Land Use Scenario One assumed a 50 percent increase in population, housing, and employment over projected levels for these same TAZs, equating to around a 60 percent increase in households and a 100 percent increase in employment over 30 years. Land Use Scenario Two focused on development intensity within the area in Coon Rapids bounded by Coon Rapids Boulevard, University Avenue, and Central Avenue. The TAZ represents a portion of Port Evergreen, a special zoning district in southeast Coon Rapids identified for office, commercial and high density residential development. Year 2030 projections from the Metropolitan Council, finalized before the completion of the updated Coon Rapid Comprehensive Plan, assumed the removal of all households currently within the TAZ, effectively eliminating all travel demand from the zone. Land Use Scenario Two instead assumed high density mixed-use development within the zone, assuming around 1,600 jobs and 400 households on less than 80 acres. The effects of both land use scenarios on network traffic volumes are provided in Exhibit 3-7. Despite increases in development intensity, neither land use scenario significantly modified the base 2030 travel forecasts. Land Use Scenario One generated additional demand on the southernmost section of East River Road as well as Mississippi Street. For both roadways, the increases observed were around 1,000 daily vehicles. This scenario had no noticeable impact on the northern segments of the corridor. Land Use Scenario Two had essentially no effect on East River Road traffic volumes, with only minor deviations from initial projections. Both scenarios highlight the significance of through demand on future volumes observed within the corridor, as increased local demand had only a slight effect on total corridor volumes. A chart showing segment volumes on East River Road relative to an assumed per lane-pair capacity of 15,000 to 18,000 ADT is provided in Exhibit 3-8, and a map showing projected ADT provided in Exhibit 3-9. With minimal observed differences between the 2030 base forecast, the alternative network scenario, and the land use scenarios, the 2030 base forecast was carried forward for additional analysis. Exhibit 3-7. Effect of Land Use Scenarios on Traffic Volumes Roadway ADT 2000 Count 2030 Projections From To Existing Network Future Year Network Alternative A Alternative B EAST RIVER ROAD TH 610 85th Avenue 13,900 17,000 17,000 17,500 85th Avenue 79th Way 17,600 21,000 21,000 21,000 79th Way Osborne Road 19,500 22,000 22,000 22,000 Osborne Road Mississippi Street 20,000 23,500 24,000 24,000 Mississippi Street I-694 25,000 28,500 29,500 28,000 UNIVERSITY AVENUE 85th Avenue Osborne Road 38,000 42,000 42,000 42,500 Osborne Road Mississippi Street 37,000 39,000 39,000 38,500 Mississippi Street 57th Avenue 36,000 37,500 38,500 37,500 57th Avenue I-694 35,000 35,000 37,000 35,500 CENTRAL AVENUE 81st Avenue Osborne Road 35,500 41,500 42,000 41,500 Osborne Road 73rd Avenue 35,500 40,000 40,500 40,000 73rd Avenue Mississippi Street 35,000 37,500 38,000 37,500 Mississippi Street Medtronic Parkway 35,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 Medtronic Parkway I-694 35,000 40,000 40,000 39,500 85TH AVENUE East River Road Evergreen Boulevard 9,000 10,000 10,000 10,500 OSBORNE ROAD East River Road Commerce Lane 9,300 12,000 12,000 12,500 Commerce Lane TH 47 11,600 15,500 16,000 16,000 TH 47 TH 65 11,700 13,000 13,000 13,000 MISSISSIPPI STREET East River Road 2nd Street 6,600 6,900 7,500 6,700 2nd Street TH 47 8,300 8,700 9,200 8,400 TH 47 Monroe Street 10,900 11,500 12,500 11,500 Monroe Street TH 65 6,900 8,000 8,700 8,000 Land Use 2 (See next page) Land Use 1 - Fridley TOD Overlay (50% Increase in Density); Land Use 2 - Port Evergreen ---PAGE BREAK--- East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 Exhibit 3-8. Future Volumes on East River Road by Land Use Scenario ---PAGE BREAK--- East River Road (CSAH 1) Corridor Study in Fridley and Coon Rapids FINAL May 2012 Exhibit 3-9. Future Area Roadway Traffic Volumes by Land Use Scenario