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ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN DECEMBER 2008 1-1 1.0 Introduction and Background The Metropolitan Council forecasts a continued trend of population, household, and employment growth in Anoka County and the entire Twin Cities Metropolitan region through the year 2030 (see Section 1.3).1 This growth will generate increased demands on county and regional transportation systems. Other demographic trends, including a growing elderly population, and suburbanization and decentralization of where people live and work, will impact travel patterns and transportation needs. Figure 1-1 demonstrates the interrelatedness of the county transportation network (see Section 3.0), changing demographics (addressed in this section), and funding methods (see Section 8.0) to address future needs. Figure 1-1 Anoka County Transportation System Components 1.1 Context of 2030 Transportation Plan Development 1.1.1 State and Regional Requirements and Planning Documents The State of Minnesota’s Metropolitan Land Planning Act requires communities located within the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area to periodically review and update their local comprehensive plans.2 1 In addition to Anoka County, the other six counties that comprise the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area include Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington. The Metropolitan Council conducts regional planning for these seven counties. Plan updates must be consistent with the goals in the Metropolitan Council’s 2030 Regional Development Framework for the purposes of guiding the region’s development. 2 The Metropolitan Land Planning Act was first passed in 1976 and has been amended several times since. For the current cycle, plans are due to the Metropolitan Council in 2008. + = Transportation Plan Elements Changing Demographics • Population Growth • Aging Population • New Jobs in County • Adjacent County Population Growth Tools to Address Future Needs • Finance - Existing funding (grants, distributions, etc.) - Potential new funding (taxes, fees, bonds, etc.) • Intergovernmental Collaboration - Legislature - Mn/DOT - Cities/Townships • Other Strategies What does Anoka County need to do to meet the transportation needs of the future? • Roads • Transit - Bus - Train • Trails - Bicycle - Pedestrian • Freight - Truck - Rail - Air ---PAGE BREAK--- ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN DECEMBER 2008 1-2 The Metropolitan Council developed the Transportation Policy Plan (TPP, completed in 2004 and revised in 2006 and 2007) to supplement the Framework and assist with planning in the seven-county Twin Cities Metropolitan Area or region. The Metropolitan Council also developed the Local Planning Handbook (September 2005, updated April 2008) to guide and support counties and communities develop and amend their plans. The 2008-2030 Mn/DOT Metro District Transportation System Plan (TSP) is also a key planning document within the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area.3 Several highways within the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area that connect to Greater Minnesota are identified as Interregional Corridors (IRCs) by Mn/DOT. This includes US 10 and the I-35 corridor as high priority corridors within Anoka County. The TSP serves as a guide for future investments to the state trunk highway system within the region, including trunk highways in Anoka County, and incorporates the direction set out in the Statewide Transportation Plan and Mn/DOT Strategic Directions. 4 In addition to meeting the county’s needs, the Anoka County 2030 Transportation Plan (the Plan) was developed to meet the Metropolitan Council’s transportation planning requirements as identified in the documents discussed above. Additionally, the Plan was developed with recognition of future transportation projects identified in the Metropolitan Council’s TPP and the 2008-2030 Mn/DOT Metro District TSP. These highways are recognized as important to the region’s and state’s plans. Improvements to IRCs within Anoka County and the rest of the Twin Cities region have been identified as key to meeting performance measures related to improving connections within and to regional trade centers. However, the fiscally-constrained planned investments outlined in the 2008-2030 Mn/DOT Metro District TSP, do not include the majority of these projects. 1.1.2 Fiscal Context of Plan Development Mn/DOT and the Metropolitan Council have operated under a fiscally constrained funding outlook for transportation improvements for the past several years. Planning documents for both agencies present “unconstrained” transportation improvement plans, aimed at identifying improvements needed to accommodate existing and future demand as well as constrained plans, which identify improvements based on reasonably anticipated funding levels. As such, this Plan was also developed using both an unconstrained and constrained outlook. 1.2 County Overview 1.2.1 Demographic Trends Affecting the Anoka County Transportation System Anoka County is located in the northern part of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (see Figure 1-2). The county includes 20 cities and one township, as shown on Figure 1-3. As shown in Table 1-1 and discussed below, the county has experienced considerable growth in terms of population, households, and employment. This trend is anticipated to continue through 2030. 3 Mn/DOT Metro District covers eight counties. In addition to the seven counties included in the Metropolitan Area recognized by the Metropolitan Council, Mn/DOT Metro also covers Chisago County. 4 TH 65 is categorized as a regional corridor, however, a corridor study has not been conducted for this corridor. ---PAGE BREAK--- Anoka County Washington County Hennepin County Ramsey County Carver County Dakota County Scott County Seven County Twin Cities Metropolitan Area ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN Last Updated: 06/02/2009 Minnesota Seven County Twin Cities Metro Area Figure 1-2 ---PAGE BREAK--- Columbia Heights Hilltop Lexington Circle Pines Centerville Bethel Andover Anoka Blaine Nowthen Columbus Coon Rapids East Bethel Fridley Ham Lake Lino Lakes Linwood Oak Grove Ramsey St. Francis Anoka County Communities ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN ± Last Updated: 05/27/2009 Figure 1-3 Spring Lake Park ---PAGE BREAK--- ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN DECEMBER 2008 1-5 TABLE 1-1 Anoka County Population, Households, and Employment Trends, 1990-2030 1990 Census 2000 Census 2006 Estimate 2010 Forecast 1 2020 Forecast 2 2030 Forecast 2 2 Population 243,688 298,084 328,614 362,170 407,710 425,260 Households 82,437 106,428 119,138 136,370 157,760 168,690 Employment 81,132 106,814 n/a 127,050 141,730 153,810 1 —Source: Metropolitan Council estimate, April 1, 2006. 2 —Source: Metropolitan Council Revised Forecasts for 2030 Regional Development Framework, January 9, 2008. Population Trends Anoka County is the fourth most populous county in Minnesota. As shown in Table 1-1, the county has grown substantially since 1990. The Metropolitan Council forecasts that by 2030, the county’s population will increase roughly 125,000 over the year 2000 population. The growth taking place in Anoka County is reflective of regional trends. By 2030, the Metropolitan Council expects that the region will grow by nearly one million people, 470,000 households and 560,000 jobs. This growth is anticipated to generate an additional four million daily trips on the region’s roadways—an increase of 37 percent.5 Employment Trends The Twin Cities Metropolitan Area includes eight major employment centers, all located in Hennepin or Ramsey Counties.6 TABLE 1-2 These centers are important to note, however, the general trend within the region is that most employment is occurring in decentralized areas, outside of the eight major employment centers, as shown in Table 1-2. Twin Cities Regional Employment Growth 2000–2030 Growth of Jobs) Region 2000 Growth 2030 Eight Major Employment Concentration Areas 629,000 184,000 813,000 Seven-county Region—Other 933,000 403,000 1,336,000 Seven-county Region—Total 1,562,000 587,000 2,149,000 Source: Metropolitan Council, Factors Shaping Transit Success presentation. Figure 1-4 shows the concentration of jobs by community, within the seven-county Twin Cities region. Within Anoka County, jobs are concentrated in the south, which is consistent 5 Source: Metropolitan Council, Transportation Policy Plan, 2004, revised 2006 and 2007, p. 7. 6 Employment Centers are defined as areas with over 50,000 contiguous jobs at 5.0 jobs per acre or greater density. The eight Employment Centers in the Twin Cities Metro Area that meet these criteria are: 1) Downtown Minneapolis, 2) Downtown St. Paul, 3) Midway/University, 4) I-494/Airport, 5) I-494/Highway 100, 6) I-494/Golden Triangle, 7) I-394, and 8) Roseville/NE Minneapolis (Source: Metropolitan Council, Factors Shaping Transit Success presentation). ---PAGE BREAK--- ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN DECEMBER 2008 1-6 with closer proximity to the cities of Minneapolis-St. Paul, more urban land uses, and a higher population. Housing and Commuting Trends Regional employment trends reflect a larger trend of increased suburbanization and decentralization. “In 1970, 54 percent of the region’s households were outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul. By 2000, the figure had risen to 73 percent. Similarly, the share of the region’s jobs located outside of the central cities grew from 44 percent in 1970 to 69 percent in 2000. This share of regional employment is expected to reach 82 percent by 2030.”7 Relative to transportation, this population growth and decentralization means that people are making more trips and traveling longer distances. Suburb-to-suburb commutes exceed those from suburbs to the central cities. The trend of decentralization extends beyond the formal Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, as shown by population and employment trends beyond the region’s seven counties. Figure 1-5 shows that counties surrounding Anoka are anticipated to experience substantial growth through 2030. Growth in surrounding counties is already affecting the Anoka County transportation system. In 2000, more than 40 percent of employed residents in Chisago, Isanti, Sherburne, and Wright Counties commuted to jobs in the Metro Area.8 In addition to commute-to-work trips, overall daily travel for work, shopping, school, and other purposes has increased consistently since 2000. “Daily travel for work, shopping, school, and other purposes expands as the region grows. This trend is expected to continue as the region expands.” A high percentage of workers from these counties either commute to a job in Anoka County, or travel through Anoka County as part of their commute to a metro area job. 9 Aging Population Anoka County recognizes these trends in the context of transportation planning because growth in surrounding counties results in more trips on Anoka County’s roadways—for both work-related and other types of trips. The population of elderly people in the Twin Cities Metropolitan region will substantially increase as the baby-boom generation ages. “In 1970, 164,000 people in the Twin Cities were over age 65. By 2000, this had grown to 255,000. The Council projects that by 2030, over 600,000 people will be over age 65. The elderly will also be a higher percentage of the population. In 2000, 9.7 percent of the population was over age 65, but it is projected that by 2030, 16.3 percent of the population will be over age 65.”10 7 Source: Mn/DOT Metro District 2008-2030 TSP, p. 16. This trend will affect where people live, and how they travel, as historically the elderly have used transit at higher percentages than other age groups. 8 Source: Metropolitan Council, 2030 TPP, 2004, revised 2006 and 2007, p. 7 and Figure 2-1, p. 9. 9 Source: Metropolitan Council, 2030 TPP, 2004, revised 2006 and 2007, p. 7. 10 Source: Metropolitan Council, 2007 Transit System Performance Evaluation, p. 17. ---PAGE BREAK--- Figure 1-4 Number of Jobs by Community, Twin Cities Region 2nd Quarter 2007 ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN Source of Map: Metropolitan Council, Employment in the Twin Cities Region, 2000-2007, July 2008, Figure 8 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Department of Employment and Economic Development Nowthen ---PAGE BREAK--- Wright 131,494 Isanti 37,483 Hennepin 271,694 Anoka 140,500 Chisago 48,199 Sherburne 97,573 Washington 164,500 Ramsey 89,465 County Population Growth: 2000-2030 ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN ± Last Updated: 04/16/2010 Legend County Population Growth, 2000 - 2030 Percent Change Figure 1-5 18 - 20 21 - 60 61 - 100 101 - 140 141 - 152 Source: Metropolitan Council ---PAGE BREAK--- ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN DECEMBER 2008 1-9 1.2.2 Land Use and Environmental Characteristics Affecting Transportation System Development Land use characteristics in Anoka County vary considerably between the southern and the northern halves of the county. Urban development is concentrated in southern Anoka County, where most communities are within the Metropolitan Urban Services Area (MUSA). (Areas within the MUSA are considered to be developed or developing areas). Areas in the northern half of the county are generally more rural in nature and are not anticipated to fully develop by 2030. However, as noted above, the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area and adjacent areas are experiencing a trend of decentralization of population and employment. This decentralized growth is currently affecting the Anoka County transportation system, and this trend is anticipated to continue. Anoka County contains many natural and land use constraints which have affected development of the existing transportation system in the past and will continue to affect the transportation system in the future. These constraints include lakes, wetlands, major rivers (Rum and Mississippi Rivers), creeks, and parks (see Figure 1-6). Other factors that have affected and will continue to affect the location of the transportation network within the county include cultural resources (archaeological and historical sites), former landfills, and areas with soil problems (either contaminated or organic soils). 1.3 Relationship to Existing County Policies and Other Regional and County Plans Existing programs and processes already in place at Anoka County also affect development of transportation system improvements; these are described below. 1.3.1 Anoka County Highway Department Plans, Policies, and Processes Five-Year Improvement Program The Anoka County Highway Department Five-Year Improvement Program (2008-2012) identifies upcoming projects. The document consists of three parts: • Program Description and Definitions—Describes the various programs used to maintain the county’s highway system. • Five-Year Highway Improvement Plan—Identifies planned and programmed projects that will be built if funding is identified. • Unmet Needs—Documents the existing conditions on the highway system, including any known deficiencies. The goals and recommendations identified in this 2030 Transportation Plan will form the basis of future five-year improvement program documents. ---PAGE BREAK--- 35W Nowthen Oak Grove East Bethel Linwood Columbus Ham Lake Andover Ramsey Blaine Coon Rapids Anoka Centerville Spring Lake Park Columbia Heights St. Francis Rum River Mississippi River 694 35W 35E 35 Hilltop Lexington Circle Pines Lino Lakes Bethel Fridley Cedar Creek NHA Carlos Avery WMA Bunker Hills Isanti County Chisago County Sherburne County Wright County Anoka County Washington County Hennepin County Ramsey County 125TH AVE NE 109TH AV E N E BROADWAY AVE NE KE TT L E R IVE R BL V D NE R U M RIV ER BLVD N W ELM S T 181ST AVE NW 237TH AVE N W MAIN ST NE C R O S S TOWN BL V D N E VI K I N G BLVD NW LEXINGTON AVE NE 173RD AVE NW C OUNTY R OA D 10 VIKING BLV D N E CO NSTANCE BLVD NE 221ST AVE NE VERDIN ST NW BIRCH ST 23 7 T H A VE NE A P OL L O D R DURAN T ST NE ASH ST 2 29TH AVE NE ROUND L AK E B LVD NW B UNK E R L AK E BLV D N W C RO S S TO WN BL V D N W 7TH AVE 2 0 T H AVE S 7TH AVE NW POTOMAC ST NE L AKE GE O R G E B LVD NW BAUGH ST NW 78 35 9 116 7 23 58 2 32 14 85 18 56 83 17 23 28 36 21 62 22 78 26 24 5 12 20 22 1 24 22 116 11 13 49 18 51 17 1 54 1 34 14 18 8 132 79 103 64 86 66 52 76 63 72 71 75 60 163 16 53 89 77 70 65 27 61 68 15 57 74 65 47 65 610 47 47 10 10 10 10 10 Carlos Avery WMA Cedar Creek NHA ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN 1 inch = 3 miles 0 3 6 1.5 Miles Legend Regional Parks Regional Planned Water Features National Wetland Inventory Boundary Last Updated: 05/27/2009 Water, Wetland, and Parkland Constraints Figure 1-6 Interstates US Highways State Highways County State Aid Highways (CSAH) County Roads Local Roads Source: Metropolitan Council, Minnesota DNR, and National Wetland Inventory ---PAGE BREAK--- ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN DECEMBER 2008 1-11 Development Review Process Manual (2003) This document provides guidelines for communities and developers within Anoka County to follow when developing or redeveloping land in their communities. These guidelines establish a process whereby communities and the county are able to collaborate on anticipated impacts to the county’s infrastructure relative to a proposed development or redevelopment. Right-of-way dedications, access spacing, drainage impacts, and in some cases, minor road improvements needed to meet the needs of a development are considered during review. The goal of the development review process is to maintain the safety and capacity of the county’s existing highway system, as well as to allow for future improvements. Access Management Guidelines The Anoka County Highway Department’s access management guidelines provide planned and managed access to land, including residential, commercial, undeveloped, and other land uses. The Access Spacing Guidelines are used by the county to consistently design highways and review development. County-specific access spacing guidelines are discussed in Section 3.0, Existing Transportation System. 1.3.2 Relevance to Other Regional and County Plans Parks and Trails The Anoka County Parks and Recreation Comprehensive System Plan, completed by the Anoka County Parks Department in 2006, documents the plans for the county’s park and recreation system for 10–15 years. The Parks and Recreation Comprehensive System Plan incorporated findings and recommendations from the Metropolitan Council’s Regional Parks Policy Plan. The Plan also identified opportunities for using regional trail corridors as a way to connect regional facilities within the county and to provide multimodal transportation options. Transit The Anoka County Transit System Plan, completed in October 2004, outlines a long-range transit vision for the county. The findings and recommendations from the Transit System Plan are incorporated into this Plan. Also, any changes to the county’s transit system or the region’s transit policies or funding sources that have taken place since completion of the county’s Transit System Plan are reflected in this document. The Metropolitan Council was updating the 2030 Transit Plan while this document was being developed. As such, the county coordinated with the Metropolitan Council throughout development of this Plan to ensure that the Council’s most current findings and recommendations were incorporated. 1.4 Collaboration with Agencies, Communities, Other Counties, and Public As demonstrated above, Anoka County’s transportation system is affected by many factors—coming from both within and outside the county. Conversely, decisions regarding the county’s transportation system affect transportation in the local communities, ---PAGE BREAK--- ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN DECEMBER 2008 1-12 surrounding counties, the region, and to some extent, the state. Recognizing the context of this Plan, Anoka County staff collaborated with many different groups during plan development to ensure a final product that best serves the county, region, and state. This section provides an overview of this collaboration. 1.4.1 Anoka County Communities Communities were also required to submit updated Comprehensive Plans to the Metropolitan Council in 2008. In Anoka County, land use control is within the jurisdiction of the local communities. This requires communities and the county to work together to facilitate coordinated transportation facility planning. Local communities provided the county with demographic (population, households, and employment) data that was key to the travel forecasting task, which resulted in traffic level forecasts for the year 2030. Throughout development of the Plan, Anoka County staff met with local communities to share the results of these analyses, as they were deemed to have a significant future impact on individual communities. These meetings were important in forming the Plan, as will be continued coordination with local communities relative to ongoing and future land use and transportation decisions. 1.4.2 Neighboring Counties: Washington, Sherburne, and Isanti Most communities within Anoka County are impacted by traffic originating in Sherburne, Isanti, Chisago, and/or Washington Counties. Given that this impact is anticipated to continue to increase through 2030, Anoka County coordinated with officials and staff from Washington, Sherburne, and Isanti Counties. Coordination with Washington County included discussions about Washington County’s plan for a north-south roadway that parallels I-35. 1.4.3 Public Involvement—Meetings and Project Web site Three information meetings were held during development of the 2030 Transportation Plan. The first meeting, held on March 22, 2007, introduced the planning effort to representatives of all Anoka County communities. The project team and agency partners were introduced and their work on the Plan described. The second meeting on January 30, 2008, was focused on informing mayors and council members from within the county about the ongoing development of the Plan. The third meeting was held on February 12, 2008. At this meeting, the purpose and goals of the Plan and results of technical analyses completed to date were shared with City representatives and the public. Comments from attendees at all meetings were also collected and considered by the Project Management Team (PMT). A Web page devoted to the Plan was housed on the Anoka County Web site. This page was updated periodically and also provided the opportunity to comment on the Plan. 1.4.4 Project Management Team Development of the 2030 Transportation Plan was guided by a PMT that consisted of participants from the following organizations: ---PAGE BREAK--- ANOKA COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN DECEMBER 2008 1-13 • Anoka County Highway Department • Anoka County Department of Parks and Recreation • Anoka County Transit • Metropolitan Council • Mn/DOT • Consultant Team PMT participants representing Mn/DOT and the Metropolitan Council provided guidance regarding their agency’s requirements and policies. A list of PMT participants is provided in Appendix A.