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5. Environmental Analysis Anaheim General Plan/Zoning Code Update EIR City of Anaheim • Page 5-203 5.12 POPULATION AND HOUSING 5.12.1 Methodology This section examines the potential socioeconomic implications of the proposed project, including changes in population, employment, and demand for housing, particularly housing cost/rent ranges defined as “affordable”. The relationship of the proposed project to the regional planning policies of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and the current Housing Element are also discussed. 5.12.2 Environmental Setting Population According to the U.S. Census, Anaheim had a population of 328,014 in 2000 and accounted for nearly 12% of Orange County’s total population. This was an increase of 61,608 people (23%) since the 1990 Census. Anaheim is a leader in growth in both California and in the United States. Looking at Anaheim’s past, this decade of growth is only surpassed numerically by the two decades between 1950 and 1970 when Anaheim grew from a small City of 14,500 to 166,700 and its total land area more than quadrupled. Between 1990 and 2000, Anaheim’s growth rate was the highest among the ten largest cities in California and eighth highest among all cities nationally with a population over 300,000. Table 5.12-1 provides population figures for Anaheim at ten-year milestones. TABLE 5.12-1 POPULATION GROWTH Year Population 1950 14,556 1960 104,184 1970 166,701 1980 219,494 1990 266,406 2000 328,014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Anaheim has experienced significant changes in terms of community composition over the past several decades. Although no one racial or ethnic group makes up more than 50% of the population in the City, increases in the number of Hispanics, in particular, have occurred over the last several decades. Anaheim has the second largest Hispanic population in the County (behind Santa Ana), as well as the largest African American population in the County. In addition, all racial and ethnic groups increased in population in Anaheim, except the non-Hispanic White population, which experienced a decrease of 22% since the 1990 Census. Table 5.12-2 summarizes current racial and ethnic demographic characteristics of the community and demonstrates the change for these characteristics between 1990 and 2000. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Page 5-204 • The Planning Center May 2004 TABLE 5.12-2 RACIAL AND ETHNIC POPULATION Population Change Racial/Ethnic Group 1990 2000 Number Percent White 150,874 117,607 -33,267 -22.0% Hispanic 83,755 153,374 69,619 83.1% Asian & Pacific Islander 24,083 40,182 16,099 66.8% Black 6,302 7,939 1,637 26.0% All Other Races 1,392 8,912 7,520 540.2% Total Population 266,406 328,014 61,608 23.1% Source: US Census, 2000; Center for Demographics Research, 2000 Anaheim has a younger median age (30.3) than both the County (33.3), State (33.3) and Nation (35.3). The senior population, aged 65 and older, increased 20% from 22,292 to 26,773 between 1990 and 2000. Though the proportion of the senior population to total population was less in 2000 than in 1990 Housing Stock According to the 2000 Census, Anaheim’s housing stock consisted of 99,719 dwelling units in 2000, an increase of 6,542 units since the 1990 Census. Table 5.12-3 shows the composition of the housing stock. TABLE 5.12-3 COMPOSITION OF HOUSING STOCK Unit Type Number of Units Percent 1 unit, detached 42,874 43.1 1 unit, attached 8,912 8.9 2 to 4 units 10,380 10.4 5+ units 33,048 33.1 Mobile homes 4,076 4.1 Other 429 0.4 Total 99,719 100.0 Source: US Census, January 2000 Anaheim has remained a leader in housing growth in the County, even though the increase in units between 1990 and 2000 was less than the prior decade, due in part, to decreasing supplies of vacant, developable land. Vacancy Rate The vacancy rate for Anaheim, as reported by the Census, was 2.8% in 2000, suggesting that housing is in high demand in the City. Vacancy rate is a measure of the availability of housing in a community. It also demonstrates how well the type of units available actually meet the market demand. A low vacancy rate suggests that households may have difficulty finding housing within their price range; a high supply ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Anaheim General Plan/Zoning Code Update EIR City of Anaheim • Page 5-205 of vacant units may indicate either the existence of a high number of desired units, or an oversupply of units. The vacancy rate fell from 6.0% in 1990 to 2.8% in 2000, even though over 6,500 housing units were added to the housing stock. Along with the new housing units, the number of vacant units dropped from 5,589 in 1990 to 2,750 in 2000. Together, the increase in new units and the decrease in vacant units represent an increase of 9,381 occupied units in the City. Housing Tenure In 2000, half of the available housing units in the City were owner-occupied (48,514 units), while the other half of the housing units (48,455) were renter occupied. This represents a slight increase in owner- occupied units from 1990, when owner-occupied units represented 49% of total available units. Current and Future Housing Needs The Anaheim Housing Element, approved and adopted by the Anaheim City Council on October 29, 2002, and certified by the State in February 2003, provides a thorough discussion as well as goals and policies to address issues of housing affordability. Goals and policies identified in the General Plan and Zoning Code update are consistent with the goals and policies identified in the previously approved Housing Element. Effective January 1, 2003, Government Code Section 65863 restricts cities’ ability to reduce the maximum allowable density on property in areas already designated or zoned for residential uses to a level below the density used by the State of California Housing and Community Development Department (HCD) when determining whether a city’s housing element complied with state law. It is immaterial under the statute whether the reduction is initiated by a city or by a member of the public. A city may neither require nor permit the reduction of density of any such residentially-designated parcel, unless the city finds that the proposed reduction in density is consistent with the General Plan, including the Housing Element and that the remaining sites identified in the Housing Element are adequate to accommodate the City’s share of the regional housing needs. If a city cannot make the second finding, it may still make the reduction in density if it identifies sufficient “additional, adequate, and available sites” with an equal or greater residential capacity in the jurisdiction so that there is no net loss of residential unit capacity. In some instances, it may be necessary for the city to “up-zone” some other area of the city in order to legally accomplish a down zoning (Government Code Section 65863). The City Attorney’s Office has reviewed Section 65863 and advised that Government Code Section 65803 states that the sections in Chapter 4, of which 65863 is a part, do not apply to charter cities except as otherwise provided. Since Section 65863 does not specifically indicate applicability to charter cities, it is believed that such provision does not apply to Anaheim, a charter city. However, as a practical matter the reclassification of property needs to be consistent with the General Plan, including the Housing Element. Anaheim has a Housing Element, approved by HCD, based upon the City’s provision of certain identified Housing Opportunity Sites. Consequently, to ensure that zoning actions remain consistent with the General Plan, when property is rezoned to a density below that considered in the Housing Element, the City uses the findings in Section 65863 as a model in analyzing the proposed action as a method of determining continuing conformance with the assumptions contained therein. While the proposed amendments to the General Plan are anticipated to reduce the residential density in certain areas of the City such as The Colony and the Mountain Park Specific Plan area, introduction of ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Page 5-206 • The Planning Center May 2004 mixed-use and residential development in the Downtown and The Platinum Triangle as well as opportunities to redevelop underutilized mid-block commercial areas with residential development will expand housing opportunities to maintain the number of housing units in each category identified in the Housing Element. As an example, the Housing Element identifies 4,534 above-moderate housing units in the Mountain Park Specific Plan area. Since that time, The Irvine Company is proposing a reduction in the number of units in the Mountain Park Specific Plan Area as part of the City’s General Plan Update, which would reduce the number of above-moderate housing units identified in the Housing Element. However, the amended General Plan will provide for approximately 9,175 new residential units in The Platinum Triangle area. The City’s certified Housing Element only identified up to 280 units for this area. The additional units in The Platinum Triangle, when combined with the units remaining in the Mountain Park Specific Plan area, as proposed, will more than satisfy the City’s requirement for above-moderate housing units. Moreover, Anaheim will ultimately be updating its Housing Element per State law (Government Code Section 65588) and this update will reflect the land use changes identified in the General Plan and Zoning Code. Changes to the Land Use Plan, including proposed changes to The Colony and Downtown area, the Mountain Park Specific Plan area and The Platinum Triangle, as well as any changes which are the result of ongoing development in the City, will be reflected in the City’s Housing Element update. Employment Trends The City’s employment base ranges from small service-oriented businesses to large-scale industrial and research/development land uses. According to the 2000 Census, the City of Anaheim contained an employed civilian labor force (16 years and older) of 152,255. Table 5.12-4 breaks down the workforce by occupation and industry. The largest occupational category is sales and office occupations, in which 28.3% of the workforce is employed, followed by management, professional and related occupations, in which 27.5% of the workforce is employed. The largest industry category is manufacturing followed by educational, health and social services Currently, Anaheim’s workforce comprises approximately 11% of the County’s workforce. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Anaheim General Plan/Zoning Code Update EIR City of Anaheim • Page 5-207 TABLE 5.12-4 EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR Occupation/Industry Number Percent Occupation Management, professional, and related occupations 39,296 27.5 Service occupations 22,252 15.6 Sales and office occupations 40,443 28.3 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 418 0.3 Construction, extraction, and maintenance occupations 13,502 9.5 Production, transportation and material moving occupations 26,914 18.8 Industry Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 411 0.3 Construction 9,714 6.8 Manufacturing 28,854 20.2 Wholesale trade 7,522 5.3 Retail trade 16,409 11.5 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 5,307 3.7 Information 3,539 2.5 Finance, insurance, real estate, and renal and leasing 10,414 7.3 Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services 14,511 10.2 Educational, health and social services 20,252 14.1 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services 14,691 10.3 Other services (except public administration) 7,286 5.1 Public administration 3,915 2.7 Source: US Census, 2000 Growth Management In 1990, Orange County voters approved Measure M – the Revised Traffic Improvement and Growth Management Ordinance – to provide additional funds for transportation improvements. Measure M authorized a half-cent sales tax increase for twenty years starting April 1, 1991. The monies collected are allocated to local jurisdictions for local and regional transportation improvement and maintenance projects. To qualify for the funds, cities must comply with the Countywide Traffic Improvement and Growth Management Program, designed to promote cooperative and integrated planning efforts between cities and within the County. The purpose of the Growth Management Element is to ensure that growth and development are based on the City’s ability to provide an adequate circulation system and public facilities plans for existing and future residents. It requires that cities and the County of Orange work with the Orange County Council of Governments (OCCOG) to develop a model policy statement on balancing jobs and housing and to develop a consistent countywide format for reporting on progress. The City of Anaheim has focused its growth management efforts on providing a balanced mix of land uses that will bring jobs and housing into close proximity where appropriate. Initiatives to introduce mixed-use and residential development in The Colony and Downtown areas, and The Platinum Triangle and strategies to redevelop underutilized mid-block commercial areas with residential development are expanding housing opportunities for all segments of the community. The City is revitalizing commercial ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Page 5-208 • The Planning Center May 2004 areas in an effort to provide both employment and shopping opportunities for residents and to minimize the length of trips to these services. In addition, the Economic Development Division of the Planning Department has developed a program of business promotion, attraction and retention. In an effort to manage the revitalization process, the City is channeling revitalization efforts in areas near existing population bases and The Platinum Triangle so job opportunities will be more accessible to current and future residents. 5.12.3 Thresholds of Significance The criteria used to determine the significance of impacts on population and housing are taken from City-approved Thresholds of Significance based on the City’s Initial Study and the model Initial Study checklist in Appendix G of the State CEQA Guidelines. The project would typically result in a significant impact to population and housing if it would: • Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure); • Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere; • Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. 5.12.4 Analysis of Environmental Impacts IMPACT: WOULD THE PROJECT INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL POPULATION GROWTH IN AN AREA, EITHER DIRECTLY (FOR EXAMPLE, BY PROPOSING NEW HOMES AND BUSINESSES) OR INDIRECTLY (FOR EXAMPLE, THROUGH EXTENSION OF ROADS OR OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE) Impact Analysis: The Buildout Statistical Summary is shown in Table 5.12-5. The proposed General Plan and Zoning Code Update accommodates additional housing opportunities within The Platinum Triangle and The Colony and Downtown Areas, which are high employment and activity centers. The additional housing units will assist the City of Anaheim in meeting state-mandated fair share housing production targets. The mixed-use component of the proposed General Plan and Zoning Code Update implements the Goals and Policies of the General Plan, and develops housing opportunities to satisfy the RHNA targets. Most units allowed by the General Plan and Zoning Code Update may not be available within the time frame of the current RHNA targets. However, the RHNA targets and Housing Element are scheduled to be updated for 2006, and every five years thereafter. The additional units allowed by the proposed project will help meet the City's RHNA goals. From a regional perspective, Orange County and the City of Anaheim have exhibited similar historic growth trends, with both County and City housing growth lagging population and employment growth. However, the proposed project will provide more housing units within one of the state's largest employment concentrations, including The Platinum Triangle, and The Colony and Downtown Area. The close proximity of the future housing units and employment opportunities responds directly to the City's jobs/housing balance policies. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Anaheim General Plan/Zoning Code Update EIR City of Anaheim • Page 5-209 TABLE 5.12-5 BUILDOUT STATISTICAL SUMMARY SCAG 2030 Projections Recommended Alternative Dwelling Units 106,005 126,570 Population 397,095 398,745 Employment 217,273 260,335 Jobs to Housing Ratio 2.18 2.06 In addition to fulfilling the Anaheim General Plan goals and addressing state fair share housing requirements, the proposed project also responds to SCAG's regional job and housing growth policies in several ways (refer to Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide). The proposed project increases the number of houses in a jobs-rich City and subregion, as addressed in policy 3.11. SCAG uses the jobs/housing ratio to assess the relationship between housing and employment growth. The jobs/housing ratio is a general measure of the "balance" between the number of jobs and number of housing units within a geographic area, without regard to economic constraints or individual preferences. SCAG applies the jobs/housing ratio at the regional and subregional level as a tool for analyzing the fit between jobs, housing and infrastructure. The proposed project will provide additional housing units to balance the addition of jobs to an existing regional employment concentration, as well as to balance continued strong job growth planned for the City. By achieving a 2.06 jobs/housing ratio, the proposed project benefits the overall City and subregional jobs/housing balance as compared to SCAG’s projected jobs/housing ratio of 2.18. The proposed General Plan and Zoning Code Update locates job and housing growth near activity centers and transportation corridors, and organizes the growth in mixed-use clusters: In accordance with SCAG policies 3.15 and 3.16, the project concentrates employment and housing growth in an activity area near transportation corridors. Further, the proposed project mixes this housing and job growth in a manner conducive to walking, biking and transit as alternatives to automobile travel. The project would interface with commercial, residential and mixed-use areas including The Platinum Triangle, The Colony and Downtown Area, and The Anaheim Resort. The proposed mixed-use areas are adjacent to High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes on I-5 and SR-57 Freeway, The Platinum Triangle, and are located in close proximity to mass transit facilities, including Metrolink Stations. As SCAG's policies intend, the proposed project's growth pattern provides an employment concentration that makes more viable public transit, paratransit, carpooling, vanpooling, and other Transportation Demand Management programs which significantly reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), congestion, and associated emissions. The proximity between jobs and housing would also enable walking and biking as pollution-free alternatives to driving, thus providing a further opportunity for reducing trips, VMT, congestion and emissions. The proposed project addresses the need to better match housing to job opportunities, as articulated by SCAG policy 3.04. Workforce housing is a concept that attempts to match the amount and type of housing with the amount and type of employment available within a jurisdiction. A community with a highly educated technical job base requires a greater proportion of moderate and upper income housing to encourage residents to work locally and reduce their travel and the environmental impacts associated with long commutes. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Page 5-210 • The Planning Center May 2004 According to the buildout analysis statistical summary, the Recommended Land Use Alternative is consistent with the SCAG 2030 projections for population. Although the proposed project's housing exceeds the SCAG 2030 projections, the population is consistent. The increase in units is related to the introduction of more multi-family units within the proposed mixed-use areas. However, the addition of multi-family opportunities allows the City to provide a range of housing opportunities consistent with SCAG’s regional policies. The proposed General Plan and Zoning Code Update is also consistent with City and regional goals to provide additional housing opportunities to balance jobs within a major regional employment concentration. Finally, the proposed General Plan and Zoning Code Update is consistent with the State's and City's commitment to provide more housing to meet housing demand and fair share housing targets. These targets are intended to motivate consistent progress toward meeting the housing needs of Orange County residents. The proposed project's housing will accommodate a portion of the County's projected 562,280 (20%) population increase between 2000 and 2025. Eighty-five percent of this population increase will be due to births within the County (The Orange County Planner, August/September 2001). Therefore, no significant impacts are anticipated. Relevant Goals and Policies Proposed General Plan policies related to providing a balance of housing options and job opportunities throughout the City include: • Monitor population and demographic trends in the City in order to identify specific housing and employment needs and opportunities. (Growth Management Element Goal 1.1, Policy 1) • Encourage mixed-use development consistent with the Land Use Element to create places where people can live, work and shop in order to reduce potential traffic trips. (Growth Management Element Goal 1.1, Policy 2) • Ensure a balance of retail, office, industrial and residential land uses to enhance the economic base of the City when considering land use changes. (Growth Management Element Goal 1.1, Policy 3) • Facilitate the transition of underutilized mid-block strip commercial development to residential or other appropriate land uses. (Growth Management Element Goal 1.1, Policy 4) • Continue and enhance the City’s comprehensive program of business attraction, promotion and retention. (Growth Management Element Goal 1.1, Policy 5) Proposed General Plan policies related to participation in programs addressing regional growth issues include: • Continue to participate in the Inter-Jurisdictional Planning Forums for the County Growth Management Areas (GMAs) that encompass Anaheim in order to coordinate planning efforts to minimize duplication of services between adjacent jurisdictions, to mitigate the impacts associated with regional growth, and to maximize opportunities for implementing projects or programs of mutual jurisdictional benefit. (Growth Management Element Goal 1.2, Policy 1) • Monitor major new developments in nearby communities to ensure that impacts affecting Anaheim are identified and addressed. (Growth Management Element Goal 1.2, Policy 4) Proposed General Plan policies related to intensification of existing land uses include: • Continue to review development projects to ensure traffic-related impacts are addressed appropriately. (Growth Management Element Goal 2.2, Policy 1) ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Anaheim General Plan/Zoning Code Update EIR City of Anaheim • Page 5-211 Proposed General Plan policies related to addressing the jobs-housing relationship by developing housing near job centers and transit facilities include: • Address the jobs-housing balance through the development of housing in proximity to local job centers. (Land Use Element Goal 7.1, Policy 1) • Develop housing that addresses the need of the City’s diverse employment base. (Land Use Element Goal 7.1, Policy 2) • Promote new residential development within Downtown, The Platinum Triangle, and other mixed- use districts, in accordance with the Land Use Plan. (Land Use Element Goal 7.1, Policy 3) • Continue to pursue infill residential development opportunities at mid-block locations along the City’s arterial streets as an alternative to underutilized commercial land uses. (Land Use Element Goal 7.1, Policy 4) • Existing Codes and Regulations • The City shall maintain its Housing Element in compliance with relevant State law. Level of Significance Before Mitigation: Less than significant. Mitigation Measures: No mitigation measures are necessary. Level of Significance After Mitigation: No significant adverse impacts were identified and no mitigation measures are necessary. IMPACT: DISPLACE SUBSTANTIAL NUMBERS OF EXISTING HOUSING, NECESSITATING THE CONSTRUCTION OF REPLACEMENT HOUSING ELSEWHERE OR DISPLACE SUBSTANTIAL NUMBERS OF PEOPLE, NECESSITATING THE CONSTRUCTION OR REPLACEMENT HOUSING ELSEWHERE Impact Analysis: The General Plan Land Use Element identifies portions of the Anaheim Colony and Central Anaheim Area for Low Density residential uses where a mix of multi-family and single-family development exists (in Low Medium and Medium Density Residential designations) and a mixed-use area where a mix of residential and commercial uses exist. The General Plan and Zoning Code, however, assume that existing land uses will remain until land use changes would occur through voluntary means or through Redevelopment efforts. Furthermore, the proposed mixed-use area would provide more residential units than the existing land use. The Land Use Element also provides additional residential opportunities, through the Corridor Residential and Mixed-Use designations, in areas that currently do not allow residential uses. As such, the General Plan and Zoning Code update will not displace a substantial number of people or existing homes. Relevant Goals and Policies • See Relevant Goals and Policies listed above under “Would the Project Induce Substantial Population Growth in an Area, Either Directly” Existing Codes and Regulations • The City shall maintain its Housing Element in compliance with relevant State law. Level of Significance Before Mitigation: Less than significant. Mitigation Measures: No mitigation measures are necessary. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis Page 5-212 • The Planning Center May 2004 Level of Significance After Mitigation: No significant adverse impacts were identified and no mitigation measures are necessary. 5.12.5 Significant Unavoidable Adverse Impacts While the projected growth associated with the General Plan and Zoning Code Update would exceed SCAG’s housing and employment projections, the projected population is consistent with SCAG’s projections. In addition, the amount of projected housing would address City General Plan policies for increased housing production to meet housing demand generated by job opportunities within the City, as well as state housing production mandates. Further, the proposed project’s housing growth supports and is consistent with regional policies that encourage more housing in job-rich areas to improve jobs/housing balance, congestion and emissions. Taking all of these factors into consideration, the proposed project along with other cumulative development in the area would result in a potential cumulative impact on employment, housing, and population. However, this potential impact is considered to be substantial, but not adverse, in light of the project’s contribution to improved jobs/housing balance and transportation demand management promoted by SCAG’s regional policies. There are no significant unavoidable adverse impacts related to population and housing.