Document Anaheim_doc_88a7e8113f

5. Environmental Analysis SEIR No. 339 City of Anaheim• Page 5.6-1 5.6 POPULATION AND HOUSING This section examines the potential socioeconomic effects of the Proposed Project, including alteration in population, employment generation, and demand for housing, including housing within cost/rental ranges defined as “affordable.” The Proposed Project is reviewed in relationship to the regional housing and jobs policies of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), and the adopted General Plan for the City of Anaheim, with a particular emphasis on jobs/housing relationships in the general vicinity of the Proposed Project. The analysis in this section is based, in part, on these sources: • City of Anaheim General Plan, City of Anaheim, May 25, 2004 (and as amended thereafter). • Orange County Projections 2006, Center for Demographic Research, November 30, 2006. 5.6.1 Environmental Setting Local and Regional Planning Projections The project area’s demographics are best examined in the context of existing and projected population for the Orange County region and the City of Anaheim. Information on population, housing, and employment for the project area is available from several sources, as discussed below. Orange County Projections Orange County jurisdictions and public agencies develop demographic estimates and projections to provide a common foundation for regional and local planning, policymaking, and infrastructure provision. Orange County agencies have executed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Orange County Council of Governments (OCCOG) to contract with the Center for Demographic Research at California State University, Fullerton, to develop and periodically update demographic projections for Orange County. OCCOG approved the most recent update to the Orange County Projections, OCP-2006, in November 2006. Table 5.6-1 provides a summary of the forecasts for population, housing, and employment for Orange County and the City of Anaheim between 2003 and 2035 that are included in the OCP-2006 projections. Orange County projections are updated every three to four years to incorporate general plan amendments and changes in land use policy at the jurisdiction level, as well as the effects of broader demographic and economic trends. Although OCP-2006 is based on the best available data, it cannot always predict economic fluctuations. As a result, near-term 2010 and 2015 projections overestimated growth and demographic changes because it did not account for the current economic downturn. OCP-2006 was approved in November 2006 by OCCOG, and is used as a reference point for discussing population, housing, and employment growth throughout this Draft EIR. Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Demographic Research has collected the latest information on land use and policy changes in each local jurisdiction since OCP-2004 was adopted in Mach 2004. This information was used to update population, housing, and employment projections based on land use plans and policies as of November 30, 2006, as well as land use adjustments that were expected in the immediate future. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING Page 5.6-2 • The Planning Center August 2010 Table 5.6-1 OCP-2006 Projections for Orange County and the City of Anaheim, 2003–2035 2003 2035 Change, 2003–2035 % Change, 2003–2035 Total Population Orange County 2,999,319 3,653,988 654,669 21.8% City of Anaheim 334,561 439,635 105,074 31.4% Total Dwelling Units Orange County 997,614 1,151,587 153,973 15.4% City of Anaheim 100,172 126,721 26,549 26.5% Total Employment Orange County 1,568,407 1,981,901 413,494 26.4% City of Anaheim 202,630 224,138 21,508 10.6% Source: CDR 2007. As shown in the above table, between 2003 and 2035 the population of the City of Anaheim is projected to increase by approximately 105,074 persons, or 31 percent of its 2003 population; the number of residential units is forecast to increase by approximately 26,549 units, or 27 percent of the unit count in 2003; and employment in the City is projected to increase by approximately 21,508 jobs, or 11 percent of 2003 employment. Population: Historic Trends, Existing Population, and Current Projections Orange County Population Population growth in Orange County has shown a diminishing but strong pace in recent decades. From 1980 to 1990, population increased by an annual average of 47,785, slowing to an average annual increase of 43,573 people during the 1990s. Orange County’s population was 2,846,289 as reported by the 2000 Census. Based on Orange County’s historical share of California’s and the region’s employment growth, migration and immigration trends, birth rates, and local general plans and zoning, OCP-2006 projects that this trend will continue at a diminished rate, with the County growing by an average of 20,458 people per year from 2003 to 2035. The total projected increase between 2003 and 2035 is 22 percent of the 2003 population. Population growth will be fueled in large part by natural increase. Births are expected to account for two-thirds of the County’s future population growth. City of Anaheim Population Growth in the City of Anaheim mirrors that of the County. Between 1990 and 2000, the City’s population grew by approximately 23 percent from 266,406 to 328,014 and the County population grew by approximately 18 percent from approximately 2.4 million to 2.8 million. Between 2000 and 2005, the City’s population increased by 4 percent and the County’s population increased by 8 percent. Based on the 2000 Census the population of Anaheim was 328,014. This is an increase of 23 percent over 1990’s population. The California Department of Finance estimates that the City’s population was 353,643 as of January, 2010. OCP-2006 forecasts that by 2035 the City’s population will increase to 439,635, about 24 percent (85,992 people) increase above its 2010 population. Thus, the City’s average population increase per year during this period is forecast to be about 3,400. Based on the probable dwelling unit allowance and General Plan population factors included in the City’s 2004 General Plan Update, inclusive of subsequent amendments, the City’s housing units were anticipated ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING SEIR No. 339 City of Anaheim • Page 5.6-3 to generate an estimated 410,515 residents at build-out. By comparison, OCP-2006, reflective of the subsequent amendments of the General Plan but utilizing different assumptions for persons per housing, anticipates a 2035 population of 439,635. Project Area Population The Platinum Triangle area of the City has historically been used for commercial, industrial, and recreational uses. The 2000 Census shows a population of only six persons within the Platinum Triangle boundary. Based on the City of Anaheim’s adopted population growth standard for the Platinum Triangle at 1.5 residents per unit, if all residential units were occupied, the current estimated population would be 2,365 people within the Platinum Triangle. Housing: Historic Trends, Existing Housing, and Current Projections Orange County Housing Housing-unit growth in Orange County has not matched the pace set by population growth. From 1990 to 2000, countywide households increased approximately 11 percent at an annual average rate of 9,441 units. According to the 2000 Census, Orange County had 969,484 households, with an average of 2.9 persons per household. A household refers to an occupied dwelling unit. Of the County housing stock, 61.5 percent are single-family units. The Census measured the April 2000 countywide vacancy rate at 3.5 percent. OCP-2006 projects that the County’s housing stock will increase by 153,973 units (15 percent) by 2035, an average rate of 4,812 dwelling units per year. Thus, the number of persons per household is projected to rise to accommodate a population that is growing faster than the housing stock. City of Anaheim Housing According to the DOF estimates, there were 103,242 housing units in the City as of January 1, 2010, an increase of 3,523 units or 3.5 percent increase from 2000. Table 5.6-2, compares the City’s housing stock by type and size for 2000 and 2010. As shown, the distribution by housing type essentially remained constant between these years: single-family detached or attached structures comprising the majority (approximately 51 percent) of the housing stock in Anaheim and about one-third of the housing stock consists of multifamily structures of more than five units. Table 5.6-2 Housing Units – City of Anaheim 2000 2010 Unit Type Number of Units Percent Number of Units Percent 1 unit detached 42,929 43% 43,733 42.4% 1 unit attached 8,923 8.9% 9,064 8.8% 2 to 4 units 10,393 10.4% 10,436 10.1% 5 + units 33,090 33.2% 35,624 34.5% Mobile homes, etc 4,384 4.4% 4,385 4.2% Total 99,719 100% 103,242 100% Source: California Department of Finance, Table E-5 City/County Population and Housing Estimates, 1/1/2010 2000 Average Household Size = 3.34 2010 Average Household Size = 3.48 ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING Page 5.6-4 • The Planning Center August 2010 In 2007, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that 48 percent were owner occupied, 46.8 percent were renter occupied, and 5.2 percent were vacant. This vacancy rate is an improvement over the rate of 2.76 percent reported by the 2000 Census. A low vacancy rate is often correlated to households having difficulty finding housing for purchase within their price range; a high vacancy rate may indicate either the existence of a high number of desired units or simply an oversupply of units. The City’s vacancy rate closely mirrors the County’s vacancy rate of 5 percent OCP-2006 forecasts that the number of housing units in the City will increase to 11 percent of the County total by 2035. In the 32 years between 2003 and 2035, OCP-2006 projects a 27 percent increase in the number of housing units within Anaheim an increase of 26,520 units at an average of 830 units per year). The Platinum Triangle With the adoption of the comprehensive citywide General Plan and Zoning Code Update in May 2004, the City Council adopted a new vision for the Platinum Triangle, which included mixed-used and residential uses. The adopted General Plan allowed 9,175 housing units not previously accommodated in the land use plan and zoning for the area. A subsequent General Plan Amendment in 2005 increased the total allowable housing units within the Platinum Triangle to 9,500 and additional amendments in the Gene Autry District and the Gateway District in 2007 increased the adopted maximum allowed units to 10,266. Housing units permitted by the Adopted Platinum Triangle Master Land Use Plan (Adopted MLUP) constitutes approximately 10 percent of the City’s total housing stock. Housing proposals and development within the project area is summarized in Table 5.6-3, Approved and Pending Housing Units. As shown, as of May 2010, 9,142 housing units are currently within some stage of proposal or development in the Katella, Gene Autry, and Gateway Districts of the Platinum Triangle: 1,577 units have been completed, 343 units are undergoing building construction; 6,445 units have been approved and are awaiting construction, and 777 units are pending approval. As such, approximately 89 percent of the total 10,266 permitted units have been allocated and only 1,124 units or 11 percent remain. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING SEIR No. 339 City of Anaheim • Page 5.6-5 Table 5.6-3 Approved and Pending Housing Units Project Name District Units Status (May 2010) 1 Stadium Lofts Katella 390 Completed 2 Park Viridian Katella 320 Completed 3 Stadium Club Condos Katella 284 196 units approved/not under construction 88 units pending approval 4 Stadium Park Apartments Katella 250 Approved/not under construction 5 1818 Platinum Triangle Katella 265 Completed 6 Platinum Vista Katella 327 Approved/not under construction 7 Platinum Gateway Katella 320 Approved/not under construction 8 Dwell @ Katella Katella 336 244 units approved/not under construction 92 units under construction 9 Avalon Anaheim Stadium Katella 251 Under Construction Katella 2,190 10 A-Town Metro Gene Autry 491 Approved, not under construction 11 Experience at Gene Autry Way Gene Autry 1,208 Approved/not under construction 12 Gateway Gateway 352* Completed 13 Anavia Gateway 250 Completed 14 A-Town Stadium Gateway 878 Approved/not under construction 15 Orangewood Condominiums Gateway 341 Approved/not under construction 16 Alexan Orangewood Gateway 689 Pending approval Total 9,142 Source: City of Anaheim, Planning Department, May 2010. Gateway – 884 total units, only 352 units are constructed within the City of Anaheim and the remaining 532 units are within the jurisdiction of the City of Orange. Employment: Historic Trends, Existing Employment, and Current Projections Orange County Employment OCP-2006 projects that the number of jobs will increase from approximately 1.57 million in 2003 to a little over 1.98 million in the year 2035. This represents an increase of 413,500 jobs. On an annual basis, it is projected that there will be an average increase of approximately 22,400 jobs per year up to the year 2015 and then an increase of just over 7,200 per year for the last 20 years of the current forecast. This latter expected activity is the result of the anticipation of a number of regional employment centers coming online during this time. Also, it is predicted that most of this employment growth will occur in the existing and currently planned employment centers. The 2008 unemployment rate was estimated to be 6.5 percent (EDD 2008). ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING Page 5.6-6 • The Planning Center August 2010 City of Anaheim Employment The City’s employment base ranges from small service-oriented businesses to large-scale industrial and research/development land uses. According to the 2000 Census, the City of Anaheim contained an employed civilian labor force (16 years and older) of 152,255. The largest occupational category is sales and office occupations, in which 28.3 percent of the workforce is employed, followed by management, professional and related occupations, in which 27.5 percent of the workforce is employed. The largest industry category is manufacturing (20.2 percent), followed by educational, health and social services (14.2 percent). Currently, Anaheim’s workforce comprises approximately 11 percent of the County’s workforce. OCP-2006 projects that employment within the City of Anaheim will grow from 202,630 jobs in 2003 to 224,138 jobs in 2035, for a total increase of 21,508 jobs representing 11 percent growth. This represents an annual growth rate of approximately 672 jobs or 0.34 percent. Project Area Employment The Platinum Triangle offers a wide range of industrial, manufacturing, entertainment and service industries, including home improvement suppliers, Angel Stadium, and Honda Center. As of November 2008, the City estimated the total commercial and office square footage in the Platinum Triangle to be 2,627,782 square feet. Based on an employment generation factor of 500 square foot per employee, total employment is estimated to be approximately 5,255 jobs. Jobs/Housing Ratio The jobs/housing ratio is a general measure of the balance between the number of jobs and number of housing units in a geographic area, without regard to economic constraints or individual preferences. Jobs/housing ratio is one indicator of a project’s effect on growth and quality of life in the project area. No ideal jobs/housing ratio has been adopted in state, regional, or city policies; any jobs/housing ratios are considered advisory only and fluctuate based on the types of jobs and populations in an area. Currently in the City of Anaheim and Orange County as a whole, there are more jobs than housing units. According to OCP-2006, the County provided 1.59 jobs per household. In the future, the County of Orange is expected to remain jobs-rich as a result of economic and demographic forces expected within the planning period. OCP-2006 projects the County’s jobs/housing ratio at 1.72 in 2035. Orange County and the City of Anaheim have exhibited similar historical growth trends, with both County and City housing growth lagging population and employment growth. OCP-2006 projects that Anaheim will outpace the County’s housing and employment growth rate between 2005 and 2035. Employment will continue to grow as Orange County captures a steady portion of the region’s growth due to its business and educational resources, and coastal location. However, according to OCP-2006, the jobs/housing ratio within the City is anticipated to decrease from 2.02 in 2003 to 1.77 in 2035. Related Planning Programs The following adopted projections, plans, and policies address the future of the project area and provide benchmarks for evaluating the potential population, housing, and employment impacts of the Proposed Project. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING SEIR No. 339 City of Anaheim • Page 5.6-7 OCP-2006 Projections OCP-2006 growth projections present the most updated demographic projections for Orange County cities and unincorporated areas, for five-year intervals from 2005 through 2035. OCP-2006 is a consensus forecast that incorporates the latest land use, population, housing, and employment information provided by local jurisdictions and their general plans, public agencies, and service providers as of November 2006. OCP-2006 generally reflects the City of Anaheim General Plan at that time. OCP-2006 allows the Proposed Project’s potential impact on population, housing, and employment to be viewed in a county, subregional, and city context. This capability is particularly important when examining the project’s likely impact on the relationship between jobs and housing. OCCOG formally adopted OCP-2006 at the County and subregional, levels. For planning and modeling purposes, the projections have also been split into city, census tract and traffic analysis zone estimates with the assistance of the County and cities, as well as, State, Regional, and Local Plans and Policies While OCP-2006 provides one method of evaluating the Proposed Project’s socioeconomic impacts, state, regional, and local plans and policies provide guidance that should be considered and balanced with a purely quantitative comparison of the project to adopted OCP projections. Thus, the Proposed Project has also been evaluated in light of the following key state, regional, and local plans, policies, and requirements that address various aspects of future population, housing, and employment growth. Regional Housing Needs Assessment California housing law calls upon local jurisdictions to shoulder their fair share of very low, low, and moderate income housing. In implementing this law, HCD assigns housing targets to each jurisdiction’s Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), such as SCAG, which the MPO then allocates to its member jurisdictions, and ultimately each local jurisdiction. Each local jurisdiction’s General Plan Housing Element must address how its housing targets can be achieved during the specified time frame, given local demographics, land use, and zoning. State law requires local jurisdictions to submit Housing Elements for HCD review and approval. SCAG has prepared the final draft 2006 to 2014 allocation for the City of Anaheim along with all other jurisdictions in its six-county region. HCD approved SCAG’s submitted allocation in September 2007, which calls for Anaheim to build or identify opportunities for the development potential of 9,498 units by 2014, 57.5 percent of them very low, low or moderate income units. Regional Growth Management Policies: SCAG Compass Blueprint As discussed in Section 5.4, Land Use and Planning, SCAG is recognized by the state and federal governments as the regional planning agency for the six-county south coast region that includes Orange County. In 2004, SCAG adopted a voluntary regional growth strategy known as the Compass Blueprint. SCAG’s Compass Blueprint is an advisory or voluntary plan to accommodate population growth in the SCAG region by altering current growth trends in a small fraction of the region. The program promotes mixed-use development, better access to jobs, conservation of open space, public/private partnerships and user-fee infrastructure financing, improving the capacity and efficiency of movement of goods, reducing vehicle miles traveled, improving air quality, improving housing availability and affordability, renovating urban cores, and creating over 500,000 high paying jobs (SCAG 2007). ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING Page 5.6-8 • The Planning Center August 2010 The program was reflected in the 2004 regional growth forecast policies that attempted to reduce emissions and increase mobility through strategic land use changes. It is driven by four key principles: mobility, livability, prosperity, and sustainability, and emphasizes the following strategies for improving coordination between land use and transportation decision making: • Focus growth in existing and emerging centers and along major transportation corridors • Create significant areas of mixed-use development and walkable communities • Target growth around existing and planned transit stations • Preserve existing open space and stable residential areas A portion of the Platinum Triangle has been designated by SCAG as a growth opportunity area. This area contains the proposed Anaheim Regional Transportation Intermodal Center (ARTIC) that will be served by Amtrak, Metrolink commuter rail, and Orange County Transportation Authority bus services. In addition, potential high-speed rail service to San Francisco and Las Vegas, Nevada could be provided. The project is consistent with the overall Compass Blueprint in that it directs additional housing and mixed-use opportunities to the jobs-rich Orange County subregion. SB 375 Signed into law by Governor Schwarzenegger in September 2008, SB 375 requires reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light trucks and automobiles through land use and transportation efforts. Emissions reductions are anticipated through reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In essence, SB 375's goal is to control GHGs by curbing urban sprawl and through better land use planning. SB 375 essentially represents the land use component of the GHG reduction requirements of AB 32, California's heralded global warming bill enacted in 2006. SB 375 focuses on regional and subregional land use and transportation planning performed as part of the federally required regional transportation planning process already undertaken by MPO’s nationally. A "Sustainable Communities Strategy" (SCS) is to be included in the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) prepared by the MPO and is intended to achieve GHG reduction targets assigned by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). The SCS will describe a plan for reducing GHGs from automobiles and light trucks through integrated transportation and land use planning. If the SCS is unable to reduce GHGs to achieve CARB's assigned emissions target, the MPO is required to prepare an "Alternative Planning Strategy" (APS) which demonstrates how the MPO can achieve the CARB GHG targets. Under SB 375, CARB will establish a regional GHG reduction target for each of the State's 18 MPOs, including SCAG, to use as the baseline for development of the SCS. CARB is required to set GHG emissions reduction targets by September 30, 2010. The Proposed Project is consistent with the goals of SB 375. The City of Anaheim General Plan The City of Anaheim General Plan provides the latest information on growth and development within the City's corporate boundaries and Sphere of Influence. While OCP-2006 projects the distribution of population, housing, and employment growth between 2003 and 2035, the City’s General Plan focuses on the amount of growth at build-out. Consistency of the project with goals and policies outlined in the City’s General Plan is discussed in Section 5.4, Land Use and Planning, with the exception of the General Plan Housing Element, which is discussed in this section. Housing Element ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING SEIR No. 339 City of Anaheim • Page 5.6-9 The City of Anaheim’s Housing Element is a required component of the City’s General Plan that addresses the City’s provision of adequate housing opportunities for present and future Anaheim residents through 2014. The Housing Element provides the primary policy guidance for local decision-making related to housing. Housing Elements are the only general plan element that requires review and certification by the State of California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD). The City of Anaheim Housing Element provides a detailed analysis of the city’s demographic, economic and housing characteristics as required by California Government Code Section 65583, et. seq. (“State Law”). It also provides a comprehensive evaluation of the City’s progress in implementing the past policy and action programs related to housing production, preservation and conservation. Based on the community’s existing housing needs, available resources, constraints and opportunities for housing production and preservation and past performance, the element identifies goals, objectives and action programs that address the housing needs of present and future residents. The 2006-2014 Housing Element of the City's General Plan provides a long-term blueprint for housing in the context of local and regional trends and housing production goals. It addresses new production targets set by California’s Department of Housing and Community Development to encourage each jurisdiction in the state to provide its fair share of very low, low, moderate, and upper income housing needed during 2006- 2014. These numerical housing production goals are known as Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) targets. Reflective of the RHNA targets, the Housing Element analyzes housing needs in the City’s demographic context; reviews potential market, governmental, and other constraints to meeting the City’s housing needs; evaluates the resources available to meet housing needs; and finally, establishes policies and objectives to make progress in meeting housing needs during the five-year period. The HCD found the City's Housing Element to be in compliance with State law in 2009 and the HCD’s approval letter is included in Appendix K of this document. The Anaheim City Council certified its Housing Element on August 11, 2009, incorporating the RHNA target and the Anaheim Affordable Housing Strategic Plan goals (discussed below). Anaheim’s Housing Element contains goals, objectives, and policies designed to meet its 2006-2014 RHNA targets as well as other housing needs in the City. Table 5.6-4 presents the City of Anaheim’s RHNA targets for each income level, with an overall housing production target of 9,498 new units. Table 5.6-4 City of Anaheim Regional Housing Needs Assessment Targets, 2006–2014 Household Income Category Target (units) Very Low Income1 1,971 Low Income2 1,618 Moderate Income3 1,874 Upper Income4 4,035 Total 9,498 Source: City of Anaheim 2007. 1 0–50 percent of County Area Median Family Income (AMI) 2 51–80 percent of AMI 3 81–120 percent of AMI 4 Greater than 120 percent of AMI ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING Page 5.6-10 • The Planning Center August 2010 Affordable Housing Strategic Plan In August 2005 the City of Anaheim adopted the Anaheim Affordable Housing Strategic Plan (Strategic Plan), which established a goal of 1,200 new affordable family rental housing units to be developed in the City of Anaheim over a four-year period. This goal has been amended three times since its adoption – once in October 2006 to 1,328 units; in July 2008 to 1,338 units; and, again in August 2008 to 1,349 units. At the end of the four year period, the City identified 1,562 housing units in the pipe-line, exceeding the revised goal of 1,349 units. The Strategic Plan also requires the City to enhance zoning and building practices to develop additional affordable housing, including comprehensively amending the density bonus ordinance in 2006 to further encourage low and very low income housing development, exploring opportunities to convert or replace motel units with affordable rental units, and pursuing the creation and implementation of an affordable housing overlay zone to allow residential development when affordable units are included and on sites in areas of the city previously designated for non-residential uses or lower density residential uses. On October 13, 2009, the City Council approved an extension of the Strategic Plan though 2014. While the emphasis will continue to be on new rental construction, the 2009-2014 Strategic Plan will include homeownership; rental rehabilitation; and preservation of at-risk units. In anticipation of the State of California’s Supplemental Education Revenue Augmentation Fund (SERAF) payments, the Council approved the following alternative goals: The 2009-2014 Strategic Plan includes the following objectives: 1. Complete the 2005-2009 Strategic Plan construction goals. 2. Extend the Strategic Pan through 2014. 3. Alternative Production Goal 1 a. Establish a production goal of 1,550 units to be added to the 1,562 units currently in the pipe-line for a total of 3,112 units to be underway prior to 2014 in the following areas: i. New construction rental: 2,412 units. ii. Homeownership: 400 units. iii. Rehabilitation of existing structures and preservation of At-Risk units: 300 units. 4. Alternative Production Goal 2 (based on SERAF payment) a. Establish a production goal of 830 units to be added to the 1,562 units currently in the pipe- line for a total of 2,392 units to be underway prior to 2014 in the following areas: i. New construction rental: 2,112 units. ii. Homeownership: 220 units. iii. Rehabilitation of existing structures and preservation of At-Risk units: 60 units. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING SEIR No. 339 City of Anaheim • Page 5.6-11 Due to the SERAF payment, made on May 10, 2010, the 2009-2014 Strategic Plan will have a modified production goal of 2,392 units as outlined by Alternative Goal 2. Housing affordability is achieved if a household spends no more than 30% of its gross income on housing, including utilities. Household income is determined by household size based on the annual median income (AMI). The 2009 Orange County AMI for a family of four is $86,100. Based on the AMI, the income limits are as follows: $46,500 for very-low income; $74,400 for lower income; and $100,900 for moderate income (California Department of Housing and Community Development 2009). Therefore, a housing expense of $1,163 would be affordable for very low income households, $1,860 would be affordable for lower income households and $2,523 would be affordable for moderate income households. The income limits for household sizes other than four persons are calculated using the four-person income limit as the base. As shown in Table 5.6-5, the City has produced, or has selected developers to produce, a total of 956 affordable units, of which 746 units have been or are expected to be completed by 2010. In addition, the City has released a Request for Proposal for the South Street site for the development of approximately 93 units. The City is well underway in meeting its production goal of 2,392 housing units by 2014. Table 5.6-5 Affordable Housing Summary Project Name Very Low Low Moderate Total Affordable Total Market Grand Total Rental Projects: Project Completed The Vineyard 33 26 1 60 0 60 Monarch Pointe 50 12 1 63 0 63 CIM Projects (moderately priced) 0 0 277 277 0 277 Elm Street Commons 36 15 1 52 0 52 Broadway Village 34 11 1 46 0 46 Diamond Street 24 0 1 25 0 25 Sub Total 177 64 282 400 0 523 Rental Projects: Developer Selected/Under Construction Pradera Apartments (CHOC) 101 43 2 146 0 146 Greenleaf 16 3 1 20 0 20 Arbor View Apartments 34 11 1 46 0 46 Integrity House 48 0 1 49 0 49 Sub Total 199 57 5 261 0 261 Rental Projects: Project Underway – Signed Agreements Projects with Signed Exclusive Negotiation Agreements (ENA) or in Negotiations Cherry Orchard 35 9 1 45 Manchester & Orangewood 85 32 2 119 0 119 Sub Total 120 41 3 164 0 164 Rental Projects: New Construction – Agency-Owned Parcels South Street 54 54 1 93 0 93 Colony Park Apartments 50 50 300 400 0 400 Anaheim/Midway (Matrix) 38 33 1 72 0 72 CIM – Parcel C 0 0 80 80 0 80 Reel Lumber Site 15 15 1 31 0 31 Lemon/Santa Ana 10 9 1 20 0 20 Midway/Palm 7 6 1 14 0 14 ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING Page 5.6-12 • The Planning Center August 2010 Table 5.6-5 Affordable Housing Summary Project Name Very Low Low Moderate Total Affordable Total Market Grand Total Sub Total 203 122 385 617 0 710 For-Sale Projects: Underway Colony Park I/II 1 42 33 76 194 270 Harbor Lofts 0 14 20 34 95 129 Sub Total 1 56 53 110 289 399 For-Sale Projects: Pending Colony Park III 0 46 0 46 136 182 Brookfield Anaheim Blvd/Parcel B 0 0 13 13 39 52 Brookfield Anaheim Blvd/Parcel C 0 9 0 9 27 36 Brookfield Anaheim Blvd/Parcel F 0 2 0 2 12 14 Brookfield Anaheim Blvd/Parcel G 0 1 0 1 8 9 212 S. Beach 0 0 0 0 36 36 Melrose/Santa Ana 0 4 0 4 0 4 2415 Manchester 0 3 5 8 13 21 Sub Total 1 65 18 83 271 354 Rental Rehabilitation Projects Colette’s Children’s Home 4 0 0 0 0 4 Casa Del Sol 4 0 0 0 0 4 Sub Total 8 0 0 0 0 8 Grand Total 709 405 746 1,635 560 2,419 5.6.2 Thresholds of Significance According to Appendix G of the CEQA Guidelines, a project would normally have a significant effect on the environment if the project would: P-1 Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure). P-2 Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. P-3 Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. The Initial Study, included as Appendix A, substantiates that impacts associated with the following thresholds would be less than significant: • Threshold P-2 • Threshold P-3 ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING SEIR No. 339 City of Anaheim • Page 5.6-13 These impacts will not be addressed in the following analysis. 5.6.3 Environmental Impacts The following impact analysis addresses thresholds of significance for which the Initial Study disclosed potentially significant impacts. The applicable thresholds are identified in brackets after the impact statement. IMPACT 5.6-1: THE PROPOSED PROJECT WOULD RESULT IN DIRECT POPULATION GROWTH DUE TO NEW HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE PROJECT AREA. [THRESHOLD P-1] Impact Analysis: The Proposed Project would directly induce population growth through allowing additional residential development and indirectly induce population growth by allowing additional non-residential development in the Platinum Triangle. As shown in 5.6-6, build-out of the Proposed Project is anticipated to add 12,965 residents and 26,860 employees in the project area, increasing the total Platinum Triangle population to 28,364 and employees to 41,500. The jobs/housing balance is one indicator of a project’s effect on growth and quality of life in the project area. Jobs/housing goals and ratios are advisory only and no ideal jobs/housing ratio is adopted in state, regional, or city policies. As shown in Table 5.6-6, build-out of the Adopted MLUP would create 1.43 jobs per one housing unit produced, compared to 2.19 jobs created for one housing unit with the Proposed Project. However, this is a significant improvement over the existing jobs/housing ratio within the Platinum Triangle, which is 13.47. Table 5.6-6 Estimated Population, Housing, and Employment Generation for the Platinum Triangle Adopted Platinum Triangle MLUP Increase Proposed Project Housing 10,266 DU 15,399 population 8,643 DU 12,965 population 18,909 DU 28,364 population Office 5,055,550 sf 9,284,972 sf 14,340,522 sf Commercial 2,264,400 sf 2,645,282 sf 4,909,682 sf Institutional 0 14,640 employees 1,500,000 sf 26,860 employees 1,500,000 sf 41,500 employees Jobs/Housing Ratio 1.43 — 2.19 Notes As described previously in Section 5.6.1, the Platinum Triangle is currently developed with 1,577 units, and 2,627,782 square feet of commercial and office uses. Based on an employment generation factor of 500 square foot per employee, total employment is estimated to be approximately 5,255 jobs. Therefore, the current jobs/housing ratio within the Platinum Triangle is 3.3. Table 5.6-7 shows the growth forecast for the City and for the County without the Proposed Project. By build- out year 2035, the City is projected to grow by approximately 27 percent in housing, 31 percent in population, and 11 percent in employment. With strong growth in the number of households, the forecast shows the City becoming increasingly balanced with time from 2.02 jobs/housing ratio in 2003 to 1.77 by 2035. Unlike the City, the County is anticipated to become more jobs-rich as a whole, changing from 1.57 jobs/housing ratio in 2003 to 1.72 by 2035. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING Page 5.6-14 • The Planning Center August 2010 Table 5.6-7 2003–2035 Growth Forecast 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Growth (2003– 2030) City of Anaheim Population 334,561 340,284 366,351 387,951 402,301 415,496 426,162 439,635 31.4% Employment 202,630 206,703 204,708 211,526 215,859 220,219 222,401 224,138 10.6% Housing Units 100,172 100,672 105,920 111,060 115,861 120,705 123,219 126,692 26.5% Jobs/Housing Ratio 2.02 2.05 1.93 1.90 1.86 1.82 1.80 1.77 — County of Orange Population 2,999,319 3,059,950 3,314,948 3,451,757 3,533,935 3,586,285 3,629,540 3,653,988 21.8% Employment 1,568,407 1,615,936 1,755,167 1,837,771 1,897,352 1,933,058 1,960,633 1,981,901 26.4% Housing 997,614 1,014,331 1,073,751 1,106,607 1,122,905 1,136,564 1,144,314 1,151,587 15.4% Jobs/Housing Ratio 1.57 1.59 1.63 1.66 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.72 — Source: Center for Demographic Research, Orange County Projections, 2006 Table 5.6-8 compares the existing build-out statistics to the adjusted build-out statistics for the City with the build-out of the Proposed Project. The most significant change is the increase in employment by 13 percent from 224,138 jobs without the project to 250,998 jobs with project condition. Creating more jobs than housing would result in an increased jobs/housing ratio: 1.76 without the project to 1.85 with the project in 2035. With or without the project, the City of Anaheim is anticipated to have a higher jobs/housing ratio compared to the County (1.71) and the southern California (1.33) area. However, the projected jobs/housing ratio for the City with the Proposed Project shows a decrease from the 2.02 ratio in 2003. Table 5.6-8 Projected Growth 2003 Projected 2035 Growth (2003–2035) Proposed Increase Adjusted 2035 Adjusted Growth (2003–2035) Difference Population 334,561 439,635 31.4% 12,965 452,600 35.3% 3.9% Employment 202,630 224,138 10.6% 26,860 250,998 23.9% 13.3% Housing Units 100,172 126,692 26.5% 8,643 135,335 35.1% 8.6% Jobs/Housing Ratio 2.02 1.77 — — 1.85 Sources: Center for Demographic Research, Orange County Projections, 2006 Build-out of the Proposed Project would result in a jobs/housing ratio that remains significantly more balanced compared to the existing conditions in the area. Providing a more balanced, mixed-use community within the Platinum Triangle will promote alternative transportation choices and is anticipated to reduce per- capita vehicle miles travelled. Regional Planning Policies The City certified its Housing Element in 2009. The additional housing units proposed for the Platinum Triangle would contribute toward the City’s effort to meet RHNA’s fair share allocation goal of 9,498 units by ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING SEIR No. 339 City of Anaheim • Page 5.6-15 2014. In addition, development of the Proposed Project will generate additional redevelopment funds which can be used by the City in the future to develop additional affordable housing opportunities. The Proposed Project would result in direct and indirect growth in the area and, at build-out, contribute towards a higher jobs/housing ratio for the City. Although a balanced jobs/housing growth is encouraged, SCAG also encourages job growth to be concentrated near transit services and transit nodes, and near existing freeways to facilitate existing and new residents’ use of transit to get to their places of employment. The Platinum Triangle, due to its unique location with two freeways and ARTIC in close proximity, lends itself as an ideal candidate for a high employment center. Build-out of the Proposed Project would increase the projected jobs/housing ratio in the City from 1.77 to 1.85. However, the Proposed Project would be consistent with regional growth management policies that facilitate future job growth at strategic points along the commuter rail, transit systems, and freeway corridors. Although build-out of the Proposed Project would increase the jobs/housing ratio numerically, the Proposed Project would be consistent with many of SCAG’s growth management policies. The policies aim to better coordinate infrastructure development with projected population, housing, and employment growth. 5.6.4 Cumulative Impacts In addition to housing development previously approved for the Platinum Triangle, this project would accommodate an additional 8,643 additional housing units within the Platinum Triangle with an estimated population increase of 12,965. The adopted General Plan contains a population projection of 410,515 for the City at build-out. Implementation of the Proposed Project would increase the City’s General Plan built-out population to 423,480. The imbalance of job generation to housing permits in Orange County in the late 1990s and between 2000 and 2004 has contributed to a housing shortage and an increase in housing prices (Orange County 2006 Community Indicators). Cumulative development of the Platinum Triangle in accordance with the Adopted MLUP and Proposed Project would substantially increase both employment and housing opportunities within the Platinum Triangle and Orange County as a whole. Table 5.6-8 illustrates the adjusted 2035 statistics for the City with the Proposed Project. The largest increase is shown in employment, which is projected to increase by 13 percent. The projected number of jobs for the City would increase from 224,138 jobs without the project to 250,998 jobs with build-out of the Proposed Project. Creating more jobs in the already jobs rich city would result in an increased jobs/housing ratio. In 2035, it is projected that the City’s jobs/housing ratio would be 1.77 without the Proposed Project and 1.85 with build-out of the Proposed Project. With or without the project, the City of Anaheim is anticipated to have higher jobs/housing ratio compared to the County (1.72) and the southern California area (1.33). However, the projected jobs/housing ratio for the City with the Proposed Project is an improvement from the 2.02 ratio in 2003. As a result, cumulative population and housing impacts are not considered significant. 5.6.5 Existing Regulations and Standard Conditions There are no existing regulations and standard conditions related to population and housing. 5.6.6 Level of Significance Before Mitigation Impact 5.6-1 would be less than significant. ---PAGE BREAK--- 5. Environmental Analysis POPULATION AND HOUSING Page 5.6-16 • The Planning Center August 2010 5.6.7 Mitigation Measures No mitigation measures are required. 5.6.8 Level of Significance After Mitigation No significant impacts have been identified and no mitigation is required.